Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated modelling approaches to analysis of climate change impacts on forests and forest management

This paper reviews integrated economic and ecological models that address impacts and adaptation to climate change in the forest sector. Early economic model studies considered forests as one out of many possible impacts of climate change, while ecological model studies tended to limit the economic impacts to fixed price-assumptions. More recent studies include broader representations of both systems, but there are still few studies which can be regarded fully integrated. Full integration of ecological and economic models is needed to address forest management under climate change appropriately. The conclusion so far is that there are vast uncertainties about how climate change affects forests. This is partly due to the limited knowledge about the global implications of the social and economical adaptation to the effects of climate change on forests.

Chemical Approaches to the Design of Oxide Materials.

Chemical methods of synthesis play a crucial role in designing and discovering new and novel materials and in providing less cumbersome methods for preparing known materials. Chemical methods also enable the synthesis of metastable materials which are otherwise difficult to prepare. In this presentation, the various innovative chemical methods of synthesising oxide materials will be briefly reviewed with emphasis on soft-chemical routes. Electrochemical synthesis, ion-exchange method, alkali-flux method and some of the interaction reactions will be highlighted, besides topochemical aspects of solid state synthesis. Cuprate superconductors as well as intergrowth structures will also be examined.

Some results and approaches for reconstruction conjectures

Tutte (1979) proved that the disconnected spanning subgraphs of a graph can be reconstructed from its vertex deck. This result is used to prove that if we can reconstruct a set of connected graphs from the shuffled edge deck (SED) then the vertex reconstruction conjecture is true. It is proved that a set of connected graphs can be reconstructed from the SED when all the graphs in the set are claw-free or all are P-4-free. Such a problem is also solved for a large subclass of the class of chordal graphs. This subclass contains maximal outerplanar graphs. Finally, two new conjectures, which imply the edge reconstruction conjecture, are presented. Conjecture 1 demands a construction of a stronger k-edge hypomorphism (to be defined later) from the edge hypomorphism. It is well known that the Nash-Williams' theorem applies to a variety of structures. To prove Conjecture 2, we need to incorporate more graph theoretic information in the Nash-Williams' theorem.

Synthetic approaches to homogynolides A and B

A four step, efficient and general methodology for the conversion of a cyclic ketone into the corresponding alpha-spiro-beta-methylene-gamma-butyrolactone, the key structural feature present in tricyclic sesquiterpenes bakkanes, has been developed employing a regiospecific 5-exo dig radical cyclisation reaction as the key step. The methodology has been extended to the total synthesis of bakkanes including homogynolide-B and chiral homogynolide-A.

Artificial intelligence approaches to network management: recent advances and a survey

With increased number of new services and users being added to the communication network, management of such networks becomes crucial to provide assured quality of service. Finding skilled managers is often a problem. To alleviate this problem and also to provide assistance to the available network managers, network management has to be automated. Many attempts have been made in this direction and it is a promising area of interest to researchers in both academia and industry. In this paper, a review of the management complexities in present day networks and artificial intelligence approaches to network management are presented. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Rearrangement approaches to sesquiterpenes containing multiple contiguous quaternary carbon atoms. Total synthesis of (+/-)-myltayl-8(12)-ene and (+/-)-6-epijunicedranol

Details of the first total syntheses of the sesquiterpenes myltayl-8(12)-ene and 6-epijunicedran-8-ol are described. The aldehyde 13, obtained by Claisen rearrangement of cyclogeraniol, was transformed into the dienones 12 and 18. Boron trifluoride-diethyl ether mediated cyclization and rearrangement transformed the dienones 12 and 18 into the tricyclic ketones 16 and 17, efficiently creating three and four contiguous quaternary carbon atoms, respectively. Wittig methylenation of 16 furnished (+/-)-myltayl-8(12)-ene (11), whereas reduction of the ketone 17 furnished (+/-)-6-epijunicedranol (23).

Comparative Analysis of Pilot-Assisted Distributed Cophasing Approaches in Wireless Sensor Networks

This paper compares and analyzes the performance of distributed cophasing techniques for uplink transmission over wireless sensor networks. We focus on a time-division duplexing approach, and exploit the channel reciprocity to reduce the channel feedback requirement. We consider periodic broadcast of known pilot symbols by the fusion center (FC), and maximum likelihood estimation of the channel by the sensor nodes for the subsequent uplink cophasing transmission. We assume carrier and phase synchronization across the participating nodes for analytical tractability. We study binary signaling over frequency-flat fading channels, and quantify the system performance such as the expected gains in the received signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and the average probability of error at the FC, as a function of the number of sensor nodes and the pilot overhead. Our results show that a modest amount of accumulated pilot SNR is sufficient to realize a large fraction of the maximum possible beamforming gain. We also investigate the performance gains obtained by censoring transmission at the sensors based on the estimated channel state, and the benefits obtained by using maximum ratio transmission (MRT) and truncated channel inversion (TCI) at the sensors in addition to cophasing transmission. Simulation results corroborate the theoretical expressions and show the relative performance benefits offered by the various schemes.

Hybrid approaches for clustering

Applications in various domains often lead to very large and frequently high-dimensional data. Successful algorithms must avoid the curse of dimensionality but at the same time should be computationally efficient. Finding useful patterns in large datasets has attracted considerable interest recently. The primary goal of the paper is to implement an efficient Hybrid Tree based clustering method based on CF-Tree and KD-Tree, and combine the clustering methods with KNN-Classification. The implementation of the algorithm involves many issues like good accuracy, less space and less time. We will evaluate the time and space efficiency, data input order sensitivity, and clustering quality through several experiments.

Algebraic Approaches to Space-Time Code Construction for Multiple-Antenna Communication

A major challenge in wireless communications is overcoming the deleterious effects of fading, a phenomenon largely responsible for the seemingly inevitable dropped call. Multiple-antennas communication systems, commonly referred to as MIMO systems, employ multiple antennas at both transmitter and receiver, thereby creating a multitude of signalling pathways between transmitter and receiver. These multiple pathways give the signal a diversity advantage with which to combat fading. Apart from helping overcome the effects of fading, MIMO systems can also be shown to provide a manyfold increase in the amount of information that can be transmitted from transmitter to receiver. Not surprisingly,MIMO has played, and continues to play, a key role in the advancement of wireless communication.Space-time codes are a reference to a signalling format in which information about the message is dispersed across both the spatial (or antenna) and time dimension. Algebraic techniques drawing from algebraic structures such as rings, fields and algebras, have been extensively employed in the construction of optimal space-time codes that enable the potential of MIMO communication to be realized, some of which have found their way into the IEEE wireless communication standards. In this tutorial article, reflecting the authors’interests in this area, we survey some of these techniques.