Evaluation of the Index-Flood Approach Related Regional Frequency Analysis Procedures

Index-flood related regional frequency analysis (RFA) procedures are in use by hydrologists to estimate design quantiles of hydrological extreme events at data sparse/ungauged locations in river basins. There is a dearth of attempts to establish which among those procedures is better for RFA in the L-moment framework. This paper evaluates the performance of the conventional index flood (CIF), the logarithmic index flood (LIF), and two variants of the population index flood (PIF) procedures in estimating flood quantiles for ungauged locations by Monte Carlo simulation experiments and a case study on watersheds in Indiana in the U.S. To evaluate the PIF procedure, L-moment formulations are developed for implementing the procedure in situations where the regional frequency distribution (RFD) is the generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA), generalized normal (GNO) or Pearson type III (PE3), as those formulations are unavailable. Results indicate that one of the variants of the PIF procedure, which utilizes the regional information on the first two L-moments is more effective than the CIF and LIF procedures. The improvement in quantile estimation using the variant of PIF procedure as compared with the CIF procedure is significant when the RFD is a generalized extreme value, GLO, GNO, or PE3, and marginal when it is GPA. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

A mean-reverting stochastic model for the political business cycle

In this article, we look at the political business cycle problem through the lens of uncertainty. The feedback control used by us is the famous NKPC with stochasticity and wage rigidities. We extend the New Keynesian Phillips Curve model to the continuous time stochastic set up with an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We minimize relevant expected quadratic cost by solving the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. The basic intuition of the classical model is qualitatively carried forward in our set up but uncertainty also plays an important role in determining the optimal trajectory of the voter support function. The internal variability of the system acts as a base shifter for the support function in the risk neutral case. The role of uncertainty is even more prominent in the risk averse case where all the shape parameters are directly dependent on variability. Thus, in this case variability controls both the rates of change as well as the base shift parameters. To gain more insight we have also studied the model when the coefficients are time invariant and studied numerical solutions. The close relationship between the unemployment rate and the support function for the incumbent party is highlighted. The role of uncertainty in creating sampling fluctuation in this set up, possibly towards apparently anomalous results, is also explored.

Response Dynamics of Recirculation Structures in Coaxial Nonpremixed Swirl-Stabilized Flames Subjected to Acoustic Forcing

This paper reports the time-mean and phase-locked response of nonreacting as well as reacting flow field in a coaxial swirling jet/flame (nonpremixed). Two distinct swirl intensities plus two different central pipe flow rates at each swirl setting are investigated. The maximum response is observed at the 105 Hz mode in the range of excitation frequencies (0-315 Hz). The flow/flame exhibited minimal response beyond 300 Hz. It is seen that the aspect ratio change of inner recirculation zone (IRZ) under nonreacting conditions (at responsive modes) manifests as a corresponding increase in the time-mean flame aspect ratio. This is corroborated by similar to 25% decrease in the IRZ transverse width in both flame and cold flow states. In addition, 105 Hz excited states are found to shed high energy regions (eddies) asymmetrically when compared to dormant 315 Hz pulsing frequency. The kinetic energy (KE) of the flow field is subsequently reduced due to acoustic excitation and a corresponding increase (similar to O (1)) in fluctuation intensity is witnessed. The lower swirl intensity case is found to be more responsive than the high swirl case as in the former flow state the resistance offered by IRZ to incoming acoustic perturbations is lower due to inherently low inertia. Next, the phase-locked analysis of flow and flame structure is employed to further investigate the phase dependence of flow/flame response. It is found that the asymmetric shifting of IRZ mainly results at 270 deg acoustic forcing. The 90 deg phase angle forcing is observed to convect the IRZ farther downstream in both swirl cases as compared to other phase angles. The present work aims primarily at providing a fluid dynamic view point to the observed nonpremixed flame response without considering the confinement effects.

Nanomechanical Mapping, Hierarchical Polymer Dynamics, and Miscibility in the Presence of Chain-End Grafted Nanoparticles

To improve the spatial distribution of nano particles in a polymeric host and to enhance the interfacial interaction with the host, the use of chain-end grafted nanoparticle has gained popularity in the field of polymeric nanocomposites. Besides changing the material properties of the host, these grafted nanoparticles strongly alter the dynamics of the polymer chain at both local and cooperative length scales (relaxations) by manipulating the enthalpic and entropic interactions. It is difficult to map the distribution of these chain-end grafted nanoparticles in the blend by conventional techniques, and herein, we attempted to characterize it by unique technique(s) like peak force quantitative nanomechanical mapping (PFQNM) through AFM (atomic force microscopy) imaging and dielectric relaxation spectroscopy (DRS). Such techniques, besides shedding light on the spatial distribution of the nanoparticles, also give critical information on the changing elasticity at smaller length scales and hierarchical polymer chain dynamics in the vicinity of the nanoparticles. The effect of one-dimensional rodlike multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWNTs), with the characteristic dimension of the order of the radius of gyration of the polymeric chain, on the phase miscibility and chain dynamics in a classical LCST mixture of polystyrene/ poly(vinyl methyl ether) (PS/PVME) was examined in detail using the above techniques. In order to tune the localization of the nanotubes, different molecular weights of PS (13, 31, and 46 kDa), synthesized using RAFT (reversible addition fragmentation chain transfer) polymerization, was grafted onto MWNTs in situ. The thermodynamic miscibility in the blends was assessed by low-amplitude isochronal temperature sweeps, the spatial distribution of MWNTs in the blends was evaluated by PFQNM, and the hierarchical polymer chain dynamics was studied by DRS. It was observed that the miscibility, concentration fluctuation, and cooperative relaxations of the PS/PVME blends are strongly governed by the spatial distribution of MWNTs in the blends. These findings should help guide theories and simulations of hierarchical chain dynamics in LCST mixtures containing rodlike nanoparticles.

Percolative switching in transition metal dichalcogenide field-effect transistors at room temperature

We have addressed the microscopic transport mechanism at the switching or `on-off' transition in transition metal dichalcogenide (TMDC) field-effect transistors (FETs), which has been a controversial topic in TMDC electronics, especially at room temperature. With simultaneous measurement of channel conductivity and its slow time-dependent fluctuation (or noise) in ultrathin WSe2 and MoS2 FETs on insulating SiO2 substrates where noise arises from McWhorter-type carrier number fluctuations, we establish that the switching in conventional backgated TMDC FETs is a classical percolation transition in a medium of inhomogeneous carrier density distribution. From the experimentally observed exponents in the scaling of noise magnitude with conductivity, we observe unambiguous signatures of percolation in a random resistor network, particularly, in WSe2 FETs close to switching, which crosses over to continuum percolation at a higher doping level. We demonstrate a powerful experimental probe to the microscopic nature of near-threshold electrical transport in TMDC FETs, irrespective of the material detail, device geometry, or carrier mobility, which can be extended to other classes of 2D material-based devices as well.

Nanomechanical Mapping, Hierarchical Polymer Dynamics, and Miscibility in the Presence of Chain-End Grafted Nanoparticles

To improve the spatial distribution of nano particles in a polymeric host and to enhance the interfacial interaction with the host, the use of chain-end grafted nanoparticle has gained popularity in the field of polymeric nanocomposites. Besides changing the material properties of the host, these grafted nanoparticles strongly alter the dynamics of the polymer chain at both local and cooperative length scales (relaxations) by manipulating the enthalpic and entropic interactions. It is difficult to map the distribution of these chain-end grafted nanoparticles in the blend by conventional techniques, and herein, we attempted to characterize it by unique technique(s) like peak force quantitative nanomechanical mapping (PFQNM) through AFM (atomic force microscopy) imaging and dielectric relaxation spectroscopy (DRS). Such techniques, besides shedding light on the spatial distribution of the nanoparticles, also give critical information on the changing elasticity at smaller length scales and hierarchical polymer chain dynamics in the vicinity of the nanoparticles. The effect of one-dimensional rodlike multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWNTs), with the characteristic dimension of the order of the radius of gyration of the polymeric chain, on the phase miscibility and chain dynamics in a classical LCST mixture of polystyrene/ poly(vinyl methyl ether) (PS/PVME) was examined in detail using the above techniques. In order to tune the localization of the nanotubes, different molecular weights of PS (13, 31, and 46 kDa), synthesized using RAFT (reversible addition fragmentation chain transfer) polymerization, was grafted onto MWNTs in situ. The thermodynamic miscibility in the blends was assessed by low-amplitude isochronal temperature sweeps, the spatial distribution of MWNTs in the blends was evaluated by PFQNM, and the hierarchical polymer chain dynamics was studied by DRS. It was observed that the miscibility, concentration fluctuation, and cooperative relaxations of the PS/PVME blends are strongly governed by the spatial distribution of MWNTs in the blends. These findings should help guide theories and simulations of hierarchical chain dynamics in LCST mixtures containing rodlike nanoparticles.

Simulated long-term climate response to idealized solar geoengineering

Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a potential means to counteract anthropogenic climate change, yet it is unknown how such climate intervention might affect the Earth's climate on the millennial time scale. Here we use the HadCM3L model to conduct a 1000year sunshade geoengineering simulation in which solar irradiance is uniformly reduced by 4% to approximately offset global mean warming from an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2. During the 1000year period, modeled global climate, including temperature, hydrological cycle, and ocean circulation of the high-CO2 simulation departs substantially from that of the control preindustrial simulation, whereas the climate of the geoengineering simulation remains much closer to that of the preindustrial state with little drift. The results of our study do not support the hypothesis that nonlinearities in the climate system would cause substantial drift in the climate system if solar geoengineering was to be deployed on the timescale of a millennium.