Using long time series of agricultural-derived nitrates for estimating catchment transit times

The estimation of water and solute transit times in catchments is crucial for predicting the response of hydrosystems to external forcings (climatic or anthropogenic). The hydrogeochemical signatures of tracers (either natural or anthropogenic) in streams have been widely used to estimate transit times in catchments as they integrate the various processes at stake. However, most of these tracers are well suited for catchments with mean transit times lower than about 4-5 years. Since the second half of the 20th century, the intensification of agriculture led to a general increase of the nitrogen load in rivers. As nitrate is mainly transported by groundwater in agricultural catchments, this signal can be used to estimate transit times greater than several years, even if nitrate is not a conservative tracer. Conceptual hydrological models can be used to estimate catchment transit times provided their consistency is demonstrated, based on their ability to simulate the stream chemical signatures at various time scales and catchment internal processes such as N storage in groundwater. The objective of this study was to assess if a conceptual lumped model was able to simulate the observed patterns of nitrogen concentration, at various time scales, from seasonal to pluriannual and thus if it was relevant to estimate the nitrogen transit times in headwater catchments. A conceptual lumped model, representing shallow groundwater flow as two parallel linear stores with double porosity, and riparian processes by a constant nitrogen removal function, was applied on two paired agricultural catchments which belong to the Research Observatory ORE AgrHys. The Global Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach was used to estimate parameter values and uncertainties. The model performance was assessed on (i) its ability to simulate the contrasted patterns of stream flow and stream nitrate concentrations at seasonal and inter-annual time scales, (ii) its ability to simulate the patterns observed in groundwater at the same temporal scales, and (iii) the consistency of long-term simulations using the calibrated model and the general pattern of the nitrate concentration increase in the region since the beginning of the intensification of agriculture in the 1960s. The simulated nitrate transit times were found more sensitive to climate variability than to parameter uncertainty, and average values were found to be consistent with results from others studies in the same region involving modeling and groundwater dating. This study shows that a simple model can be used to simulate the main dynamics of nitrogen in an intensively polluted catchment and then be used to estimate the transit times of these pollutants in the system which is crucial to guide mitigation plans design and assessment. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Electron transfer statistics and thermal fluctuations in molecular junctions

We derive analytical expressions for probability distribution function (PDF) for electron transport in a simple model of quantum junction in presence of thermal fluctuations. Our approach is based on the large deviation theory combined with the generating function method. For large number of electrons transferred, the PDF is found to decay exponentially in the tails with different rates due to applied bias. This asymmetry in the PDF is related to the fluctuation theorem. Statistics of fluctuations are analyzed in terms of the Fano factor. Thermal fluctuations play a quantitative role in determining the statistics of electron transfer; they tend to suppress the average current while enhancing the fluctuations in particle transfer. This gives rise to both bunching and antibunching phenomena as determined by the Fano factor. The thermal fluctuations and shot noise compete with each other and determine the net (effective) statistics of particle transfer. Exact analytical expression is obtained for delay time distribution. The optimal values of the delay time between successive electron transfers can be lowered below the corresponding shot noise values by tuning the thermal effects. (C) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC.

Composition dependent non-ideality in aqueous binary mixtures as a signature of avoided spinodal decomposition

We explore the potential energy landscape of structure breaking binary mixtures (SBBM) where two constituents dislike each other, yet remain macroscopically homogeneous at intermediate to high temperatures. Interestingly, we find that the origin of strong composition dependent non-ideal behaviour lies in its phase separated inherent structure. The inherent structure (IS) of SBBM exhibits bi-continuous phase as is usually formed during spinodal decomposition. We draw analogy of this correlation between non-ideality and phase separation in IS to explain observation of non-ideality in real aqueous mixtures of small amphiphilic solutes, containing both hydrophilic and hydrophobic groups. Although we have not been able to obtain IS of these liquids, we find that even at room temperature these liquids sustain formation of fluctuating, transient bi-continuous phase, with limited lifetime (tau less than or similar to 20 ps). While in the model (A, B) binary mixture, the non-ideal composition dependence can be considered as a fluctuation from a phase separated state, a similar scenario is expected to be responsible for the unusually strong non-ideality in these aqueous binary mixtures.

A Gaussian network model study suggests that structural fluctuations are higher for inactive states than active states of protein kinases

We performed Gaussian network model based normal mode analysis of 3-dimensional structures of multiple active and inactive forms of protein kinases. In 14 different kinases, a more number of residues (1095) show higher structural fluctuations in inactive states than those in active states (525), suggesting that, in general, mobility of inactive states is higher than active states. This statistically significant difference is consistent with higher crystallographic B-factors and conformational energies for inactive than active states, suggesting lower stability of inactive forms. Only a small number of inactive conformations with the DFG motif in the ``in'' state were found to have fluctuation magnitudes comparable to the active conformation. Therefore our study reports for the first time, intrinsic higher structural fluctuation for almost all inactive conformations compared to the active forms. Regions with higher fluctuations in the inactive states are often localized to the aC-helix, aG-helix and activation loop which are involved in the regulation and/or in structural transitions between active and inactive states. Further analysis of 476 kinase structures involved in interactions with another domain/protein showed that many of the regions with higher inactive-state fluctuation correspond to contact interfaces. We also performed extensive GNM analysis of (i) insulin receptor kinase bound to another protein and (ii) holo and apo forms of active and inactive conformations followed by multi-factor analysis of variance. We conclude that binding of small molecules or other domains/proteins reduce the extent of fluctuation irrespective of active or inactive forms. Finally, we show that the perceived fluctuations serve as a useful input to predict the functional state of a kinase.

Modeling of solar radiation management: a comparison of simulations using reduced solar constant and stratospheric sulphate aerosols

The climatic effects of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) geoengineering have been often modeled by simply reducing the solar constant. This is most likely valid only for space sunshades and not for atmosphere and surface based SRM methods. In this study, a global climate model is used to evaluate the differences in the climate response to SRM by uniform solar constant reduction and stratospheric aerosols. Our analysis shows that when global mean warming from a doubling of CO2 is nearly cancelled by both these methods, they are similar when important surface and tropospheric climate variables are considered. However, a difference of 1 K in the global mean stratospheric (61-9.8 hPa) temperature is simulated between the two SRM methods. Further, while the global mean surface diffuse radiation increases by similar to 23 % and direct radiation decreases by about 9 % in the case of sulphate aerosol SRM method, both direct and diffuse radiation decrease by similar fractional amounts (similar to 1.0 %) when solar constant is reduced. When CO2 fertilization effects from elevated CO2 concentration levels are removed, the contribution from shaded leaves to gross primary productivity (GPP) increases by 1.8 % in aerosol SRM because of increased diffuse light. However, this increase is almost offset by a 15.2 % decline in sunlit contribution due to reduced direct light. Overall both the SRM simulations show similar decrease in GPP (similar to 8 %) and net primary productivity (similar to 3 %). Based on our results we conclude that the climate states produced by a reduction in solar constant and addition of aerosols into the stratosphere can be considered almost similar except for two important aspects: stratospheric temperature change and the consequent implications for the dynamics and the chemistry of the stratosphere and the partitioning of direct versus diffuse radiation reaching the surface. Further, the likely dependence of global hydrological cycle response on aerosol particle size and the latitudinal and height distribution of aerosols is discussed.

Optimal Linear Glauber Model

Contrary to the actual nonlinear Glauber model, the linear Glauber model (LGM) is exactly solvable, although the detailed balance condition is not generally satisfied. This motivates us to address the issue of writing the transition rate () in a best possible linear form such that the mean squared error in satisfying the detailed balance condition is least. The advantage of this work is that, by studying the LGM analytically, we will be able to anticipate how the kinetic properties of an arbitrary Ising system depend on the temperature and the coupling constants. The analytical expressions for the optimal values of the parameters involved in the linear are obtained using a simple Moore-Penrose pseudoinverse matrix. This approach is quite general, in principle applicable to any system and can reproduce the exact results for one dimensional Ising system. In the continuum limit, we get a linear time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau equation from the Glauber's microscopic model of non-conservative dynamics. We analyze the critical and dynamic properties of the model, and show that most of the important results obtained in different studies can be reproduced by our new mathematical approach. We will also show in this paper that the effect of magnetic field can easily be studied within our approach; in particular, we show that the inverse of relaxation time changes quadratically with (weak) magnetic field and that the fluctuation-dissipation theorem is valid for our model.

Spatio-temporal correlations in aqueous systems: computational studies of static and dynamic heterogeneity by 2D-IR spectroscopy

Local heterogeneity is ubiquitous in natural aqueous systems. It can be caused locally by external biomolecular subsystems like proteins, DNA, micelles and reverse micelles, nanoscopic materials etc., but can also be intrinsic to the thermodynamic nature of the aqueous solution itself (like binary mixtures or at the gas-liquid interface). The altered dynamics of water in the presence of such diverse surfaces has attracted considerable attention in recent years. As these interfaces are quite narrow, only a few molecular layers thick, they are hard to study by conventional methods. The recent development of two dimensional infra-red (2D-IR) spectroscopy allows us to estimate length and time scales of such dynamics fairly accurately. In this work, we present a series of interesting studies employing two dimensional infra-red spectroscopy (2D-IR) to investigate (i) the heterogeneous dynamics of water inside reverse micelles of varying sizes, (ii) supercritical water near the Widom line that is known to exhibit pronounced density fluctuations and also study (iii) the collective and local polarization fluctuation of water molecules in the presence of several different proteins. The spatio-temporal correlation of confined water molecules inside reverse micelles of varying sizes is well captured through the spectral diffusion of corresponding 2D-IR spectra. In the case of supercritical water also, we observe a strong signature of dynamic heterogeneity from the elongated nature of the 2D-IR spectra. In this case the relaxation is ultrafast. We find remarkable agreement between the different tools employed to study the relaxation of density heterogeneity. For aqueous protein solutions, we find that the calculated dielectric constant of the respective systems unanimously shows a noticeable increment compared to that of neat water. However, the `effective' dielectric constant for successive layers shows significant variation, with the layer adjacent to the protein having a much lower value. Relaxation is also slowest at the surface. We find that the dielectric constant achieves the bulk value at distances more than 3 nm from the surface of the protein.

Probable maximum precipitation estimation for catchments in Mahanadi river basin

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is a theoretical concept that is widely used by hydrologists to arrive at estimates for probable maximum flood (PMF) that find use in planning, design and risk assessment of high-hazard hydrological structures such as flood control dams upstream of populated areas. The PMP represents the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is meteorologically possible for a watershed or an area at a particular time of year, with no allowance made for long-term climatic trends. Various methods are in use for estimation of PMP over a target location corresponding to different durations. Moisture maximization method and Hershfield method are two widely used methods. The former method maximizes the observed storms assuming that the atmospheric moisture would rise up to a very high value estimated based on the maximum daily dew point temperature. On the other hand, the latter method is a statistical method based on a general frequency equation given by Chow. The present study provides one-day PMP estimates and PMP maps for Mahanadi river basin based on the aforementioned methods. There is a need for such estimates and maps, as the river basin is prone to frequent floods. Utility of the constructed PMP maps in computing PMP for various catchments in the river basin is demonstrated. The PMP estimates can eventually be used to arrive at PMF estimates for those catchments. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Use of Data Driven Techniques for Short Lead Time Streamflow Forecasting in Mahanadi basin

Streamflow forecasts at daily time scale are necessary for effective management of water resources systems. Typical applications include flood control, water quality management, water supply to multiple stakeholders, hydropower and irrigation systems. Conventionally physically based conceptual models and data-driven models are used for forecasting streamflows. Conceptual models require detailed understanding of physical processes governing the system being modeled. Major constraints in developing effective conceptual models are sparse hydrometric gauge network and short historical records that limit our understanding of physical processes. On the other hand, data-driven models rely solely on previous hydrological and meteorological data without directly taking into account the underlying physical processes. Among various data driven models Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are most widely used techniques. The present study assesses performance of ARIMA and ANNs methods in arriving at one-to seven-day ahead forecast of daily streamflows at Basantpur streamgauge site that is situated at upstream of Hirakud Dam in Mahanadi river basin, India. The ANNs considered include Feed-Forward back propagation Neural Network (FFNN) and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN). Daily streamflow forecasts at Basantpur site find use in management of water from Hirakud reservoir. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Analytical approach to quantile estimation in regional frequency analysis based on fuzzy framework

Regional frequency analysis is widely used for estimating quantiles of hydrological extreme events at sparsely gauged/ungauged target sites in river basins. It involves identification of a region (group of watersheds) resembling watershed of the target site, and use of information pooled from the region to estimate quantile for the target site. In the analysis, watershed of the target site is assumed to completely resemble watersheds in the identified region in terms of mechanism underlying generation of extreme event. In reality, it is rare to find watersheds that completely resemble each other. Fuzzy clustering approach can account for partial resemblance of watersheds and yield region(s) for the target site. Formation of regions and quantile estimation requires discerning information from fuzzy-membership matrix obtained based on the approach. Practitioners often defuzzify the matrix to form disjoint clusters (regions) and use them as the basis for quantile estimation. The defuzzification approach (DFA) results in loss of information discerned on partial resemblance of watersheds. The lost information cannot be utilized in quantile estimation, owing to which the estimates could have significant error. To avert the loss of information, a threshold strategy (TS) was considered in some prior studies. In this study, it is analytically shown that the strategy results in under-prediction of quantiles. To address this, a mathematical approach is proposed in this study and its effectiveness in estimating flood quantiles relative to DFA and TS is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments and case study on Mid-Atlantic water resources region, USA. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tuning the metal-insulator transition in NdNiO3 heterostructures via Fermi surface instability and spin fluctuations

We employed in situ pulsed laser deposition (PLD) and angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES) to investigate the mechanism of the metal-insulator transition (MIT) in NdNiO3 (NNO) thin films, grown on NdGaO3(110) and LaAlO3(100) substrates. In the metallic phase, we observe three-dimensional hole and electron Fermi surface (FS) pockets formed from strongly renormalized bands with well-defined quasiparticles. Upon cooling across the MIT in NNO/NGO sample, the quasiparticles lose coherence via a spectral weight transfer from near the Fermi level to localized states forming at higher binding energies. In the case of NNO/LAO, the bands are apparently shifted upward with an additional holelike pocket forming at the corner of the Brillouin zone. We find that the renormalization effects are strongly anisotropic and are stronger in NNO/NGO than NNO/LAO. Our study reveals that substrate-induced strain tunes the crystal field splitting, which changes the FS properties, nesting conditions, and spin-fluctuation strength, and thereby controls the MIT via the formation of an electronic order parameter with QAF similar to (1/4,1/4,1/4 +/- delta).

Multiobjective fuzzy optimization for sustainable groundwater management using particle swarm optimization and analytic element method

Groundwater management involves conflicting objectives as maximization of discharge contradicts the criteria of minimum pumping cost and minimum piping cost. In addition, available data contains uncertainties such as market fluctuations, variations in water levels of wells and variations of ground water policies. A fuzzy model is to be evolved to tackle the uncertainties, and a multiobjective optimization is to be conducted to simultaneously satisfy the contradicting objectives. Towards this end, a multiobjective fuzzy optimization model is evolved. To get at the upper and lower bounds of the individual objectives, particle Swarm optimization (PSO) is adopted. The analytic element method (AEM) is employed to obtain the operating potentio metric head. In this study, a multiobjective fuzzy optimization model considering three conflicting objectives is developed using PSO and AEM methods for obtaining a sustainable groundwater management policy. The developed model is applied to a case study, and it is demonstrated that the compromise solution satisfies all the objectives with adequate levels of satisfaction. Sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the parameters, and it is shown that the effect of any such variation is quite significant. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Stable isotopic signature of Southern Ocean deep water CO2 ventilation

The link between atmospheric CO2 level and ventilation state of the deep ocean is poorly understood due to the lack of coherent observations on the partitioning of carbon between atmosphere and ocean. In this Southern Ocean study, we have classified the Southern Ocean into different zones based on its hydrological features and have binned the variability in latitudinal air-CO2 concentration and its isotopic ratios. Together with air-CO2, we analysed the surface water for the isotopic ratios in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Using the binary mixing approach on the isotopic ratio of atmospheric CO2 and its concentration, we identified the delta C-13 value of source CO2. The isotopic composition of source CO2 was around -9.22 +/- 0.26 parts per thousand for the year 2011 and 2012, while a composition of -13.49 +/- 4.07 parts per thousand was registered for the year 2013. We used the delta C-13 of DIC to predict the CO2 composition in air under equilibrium and compared our estimates with actual observations. We suggest that the degeneration of the DIC in presence of warm water in the region was the factor responsible for adding the CO2 to the atmosphere above. The place of observation coincides with the zone of high wind speed which promotes the process of CO2 exsolution from sea water. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Molecular Dynamics Study of the Structure, Flexibility, and Hydrophilicity of PETIM Dendrimers: A Comparison with PAMAM Dendrimers

A new class of dendrimers, the poly(propyl ether imine) (PETIM) dendrimer, has been shown to be a novel hyperbranched polymer having potential applications as a drug delivery vehicle. Structure and dynamics of the amine terminated PETIM dendrimer and their changes with respect to the dendrimer generation are poorly understood. Since most drugs are hydrophobic in nature, the extent of hydrophobicity of the dendrimer core is related to its drug encapsulation and retention efficacy. In this study, we carry out fully atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to characterize the structure of PETIM (G2-G6) dendrimers in salt solution as a function of dendrimer generation at different protonation levels. Structural properties such as radius of gyration (R-g), radial density distribution, aspect ratio, and asphericity are calculated. In order to assess the hydrophilicity of the dendrimer, we compute the number of bound water molecules in the interior of dendrirner as well as the number of dendrimer-water hydrogen bonds. We conclude that PETIM dendrimers have relatively greater hydrophobicity and flexibility when compared with their extensively investigated PAMAM counterparts. Hence PETIM dendrimers are expected to have stronger interactions with lipid membranes as well as improved drug encapsulation and retention properties when compared with PAMAM dendrimers. We compute the root-mean-square fluctuation of dendrimers as well as their entropy to quantify the flexibility of the dendrimer. Finally we note that structural and solvation properties computed using force field parameters derived based on the CHARMM general purpose force field were in good quantitative agreement with those obtained using the generalized Amber force field (GAFF).