Informational efficiency of the European Union emission allowance market

This thesis studies the informational efficiency of the European Union emission allowance (EUA) market. In an efficient market, the market price is unpredictable and profits above average are impossible in the long run. The main research problem is does the EUA price follow a random walk. The method is an econometric analysis of the price series, which includes an autocorrelation coefficient test and a variance ratio test. The results reveal that the price series is autocorrelated and therefore a nonrandom walk. In order to find out the extent of predictability, the price series is modelled with an autoregressive model. The conclusion is that the EUA price is autocorrelated only to a small degree and that the predictability cannot be used to make extra profits. The EUA market is therefore considered informationally efficient, although the price series does not fulfill the requirements of a random walk. A market review supports the conclusion, but it is clear that the maturing of the market is still in process.

Conditional Moments in Asset Pricing

A better understanding of stock price changes is important in guiding many economic activities. Since prices often do not change without good reasons, searching for related explanatory variables has involved many enthusiasts. This book seeks answers from prices per se by relating price changes to their conditional moments. This is based on the belief that prices are the products of a complex psychological and economic process and their conditional moments derive ultimately from these psychological and economic shocks. Utilizing information about conditional moments hence makes it an attractive alternative to using other selective financial variables in explaining price changes. The first paper examines the relation between the conditional mean and the conditional variance using information about moments in three types of conditional distributions; it finds that the significance of the estimated mean and variance ratio can be affected by the assumed distributions and the time variations in skewness. The second paper decomposes the conditional industry volatility into a concurrent market component and an industry specific component; it finds that market volatility is on average responsible for a rather small share of total industry volatility — 6 to 9 percent in UK and 2 to 3 percent in Germany. The third paper looks at the heteroskedasticity in stock returns through an ARCH process supplemented with a set of conditioning information variables; it finds that the heteroskedasticity in stock returns allows for several forms of heteroskedasticity that include deterministic changes in variances due to seasonal factors, random adjustments in variances due to market and macro factors, and ARCH processes with past information. The fourth paper examines the role of higher moments — especially skewness and kurtosis — in determining the expected returns; it finds that total skewness and total kurtosis are more relevant non-beta risk measures and that they are costly to be diversified due either to the possible eliminations of their desirable parts or to the unsustainability of diversification strategies based on them.

Effects of dietary phosphorus and calcium-to-phosphorus ratio on calcium and bone metabolism in healthy 20- to 43-year-old Finnish women

Dietary habits have changed during the past decades towards an increasing consumption of processed foods, which has notably increased not only total dietary phosphorus (P) intake, but also intake of P from phosphate additives. While the intake of calcium (Ca) in many Western countries remains below recommended levels (800 mg/d), the usual daily P intake in a typical Western diet exceeds by 2- to 3-fold the dietary guidelines (600 mg/d). The effects of high P intake in healthy humans have been investigated seldom. In this thesis healthy 20- to 43-year-old women were studied. In the first controlled study (n = 14), we examined the effects of P doses, and in a cross-sectional study (n = 147) the associations of habitual P intakes with Ca and bone metabolism. In this same cross-sectional study, we also investigated whether differences exist between dietary P originating from natural P sources and phosphate additives. The second controlled study (n = 12) investigated whether by increasing the Ca intake, the effects of a high P intake could be reduced. The associations of habitual dietary calcium-to-phosphorus ratios (Ca:P ratio) with Ca and bone metabolism were determined in a cross-sectional study design (n = 147). In the controlled study, the oral intake of P doses (495, 745, 1245 and 1995 mg/d) with a low Ca intake (250 mg/d) increased serum parathyroid hormone (S-PTH) concentration in a dose-dependent manner. In addition, the highest P dose decreased serum ionized calcium (S-iCa) concentration and bone formation and increased bone resorption. In the second controlled study with a dietary P intake of 1850 mg/d, by increasing the Ca intake from 480 mg/d to 1080 mg/d and then to 1680 mg/d, the S-PTH concentration decreased, the S-iCa concentration increased and bone resorption decreased dose-dependently. However, not even the highest Ca intake could counteract the effect of high dietary P on bone formation, as indicated by unchanged bone formation activity. In the cross-sectional studies, a higher habitual dietary P intake (>1650 mg/d) was associated with lower S-iCa and higher S-PTH concentrations. The consumption of phosphate additive-containing foods was associated with a higher S-PTH concentration. Moreover, habitual low dietary Ca:P ratios (≤0.50, molar ratio) were associated with higher S-PTH concentrations and 24-h urinary Ca excretions, suggesting that low dietary Ca:P ratios may interfere with homeostasis of Ca metabolism and increase bone resorption. In summary, excessive dietary P intake in healthy Finnish women seems to be detrimental to Ca and bone metabolism, especially when dietary Ca intake is low. The results indicate that by increasing dietary Ca intake to the recommended level, the negative effects of high P intake could be diminished, but not totally prevented. These findings imply that phosphate additives may be more harmful than natural P. Thus, reduction of an excessively high dietary P intake is also beneficial for healthy individuals.

First Measurement of the Ratio of Branching Fractions B(Lambda_b to Lambda_c mu nu)/B(Lambda_b to Lambda_c pi)

The analysis uses data from an integrated luminosity of approximately 172 pb-1 of ppbar collisions at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV, collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. The Lambda_b and B0 relative branching fractions are measured to be: B(Lambda_b to Lambda_c+ mu nu)/B(Lambda_b to Lambda_c+ pi) = 16.6 +- 3.0 (stat) +- 1.0 (syst) +2.6 -3.4 (PDG) +- 0.3 (EBR), B(B0 to D+ mu nu)/B(B0 to D+ pi) = 9.9 +- 1.0 (stat) +- 0.6 (syst) +- 0.4 (PDG) +- 0.5 (EBR), B(B0 to D*+ mu nu)/B(B0 to D*+ pi) = 16.5 +- 2.3 (stat) +- 0.6 (syst) +- 0.5 (PDG) +- 0.8 (EBR) This article also presents measurements of the branching fractions of four new Lambda_b semileptonic decays: Lambda_b to Lambda_c(2595)+ mu nu, Lambda_b to Lambda_c(2625)+ mu nu, Lambda_b to Sigma_c(2455)0 pi mu nu, Lambda_b to Sigma_c(2455)++ pi mu nu, relative to the branching fraction of the Lambda_b to Lambda_c mu nu decay. Finally, the transverse-momentum distribution of Lambda_b baryons produced in p-pbar collisions is measured and found to be significantly different from that of B0 mesons.

First observation of the decay Bs --> Ds K and measurement of the ratio of branching fractions Br(Bs --> DsK)/Br(Bs --> Ds pi)

A combined mass and particle identification fit is used to make the first observation of the decay Bs --> Ds K and measure the branching fraction of Bs --> Ds K relative to Bs --> Ds pi. This analysis uses 1.2 fb^-1 integrated luminosity of pbar-p collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. We observe a Bs --> Ds K signal with a statistical significance of 8.1 sigma and measure Br(Bs --> Ds K)/Br(Bs --> Ds pi) = 0.097 +- 0.018(stat) +- 0.009(sys).

Measurement of the Ratio σtt̅ /σZ/γ*→ll and Precise Extraction of the tt̅ Cross Section

We report a measurement of the ratio of the tt̅ to Z/γ* production cross sections in √s=1.96  TeV pp̅ collisions using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of up to 4.6  fb-1, collected by the CDF II detector. The tt̅ cross section ratio is measured using two complementary methods, a b-jet tagging measurement and a topological approach. By multiplying the ratios by the well-known theoretical Z/γ*→ll cross section predicted by the standard model, the extracted tt̅ cross sections are effectively insensitive to the uncertainty on luminosity. A best linear unbiased estimate is used to combine both measurements with the result σtt̅ =7.70±0.52  pb, for a top-quark mass of 172.5  GeV/c2.

Measurement of the Ratio σtt̅ /σZ/γ*→ll and Precise Extraction of the tt̅ Cross Section

We report a measurement of the ratio of the tt̅ to Z/γ* production cross sections in √s=1.96  TeV pp̅ collisions using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of up to 4.6  fb-1, collected by the CDF II detector. The tt̅ cross section ratio is measured using two complementary methods, a b-jet tagging measurement and a topological approach. By multiplying the ratios by the well-known theoretical Z/γ*→ll cross section predicted by the standard model, the extracted tt̅ cross sections are effectively insensitive to the uncertainty on luminosity. A best linear unbiased estimate is used to combine both measurements with the result σtt̅ =7.70±0.52  pb, for a top-quark mass of 172.5  GeV/c2.

Measurement of the Ratio σtt̅ /σZ/γ*→ll and Precise Extraction of the tt̅ Cross Section

We report a measurement of the ratio of the top-antitop to Z/gamma* production cross sections in sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV proton-antiproton collisions using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of up to 4.6 fb-1, collected by the CDF II detector. The top-antitop cross section ratio is measured using two complementary methods, a b-jet tagging measurement and a topological approach. By multiplying the ratios by the well-known theoretical Z/gamma*->ll cross section, the extracted top-antitop cross sections are effectively insensitive to the uncertainty on luminosity. A best linear unbiased estimate is used to combine both measurements with the result sigma_(top-antitop) = 7.70 +/- 0.52 pb, for a top-quark mass of 172.5 GeV/c^2.

First measurement of the ratio of branching fractions B(Λb0→Λc+μ-ν̅ μ)/B(Λb0→Λc+π-)

This article presents the first measurement of the ratio of branching fractions B(Λb0→Λc+μ-ν̅ μ)/B(Λb0→Λc+π-). Measurements in two control samples using the same technique B(B̅ 0→D+μ-ν̅ μ)/B(B̅ 0→D+π-) and B(B̅ 0→D*(2010)+μ-ν̅ μ)/B(B̅ 0→D*(2010)+π-) are also reported. The analysis uses data from an integrated luminosity of approximately 172  pb-1 of pp̅ collisions at √s=1.96  TeV, collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. The relative branching fractions are measured to be B(Λb0→Λc+μ-ν̅ μ)/B(Λb0→Λc+π-)=16.6±3.0(stat)±1.0(syst)+2.6/-3.4(PDG)±0.3(EBR), B(B̅ 0→D+μ-ν̅ μ)/B(B̅ 0→D+π-)= 9.9±1.0(stat)±0.6(syst)±0.4(PDG)±0.5(EBR), and B(B̅ 0→D*(2010)+μ-ν̅ μ)/B(B̅ 0→D*(2010)+π-)=16.5±2.3(stat)± 0.6(syst)±0.5(PDG)±0.8(EBR). The uncertainties are from statistics (stat), internal systematics (syst), world averages of measurements published by the Particle Data Group or subsidiary measurements in this analysis (PDG), and unmeasured branching fractions estimated from theory (EBR), respectively. This article also presents measurements of the branching fractions of four new Λb0 semileptonic decays: Λb0→Λc(2595)+μ-ν̅ μ, Λb0→Λc(2625)+μ-ν̅ μ, Λb0→Σc(2455)0π+μ-ν̅ μ, and Λb0→Σc(2455)++π-μ-ν̅ μ, relative to the branching fraction of the Λb0→Λc+μ-ν̅ μ decay. Finally, the transverse-momentum distribution of Λb0 baryons produced in pp̅ collisions is measured and found to be significantly different from that of B̅ 0 mesons, which results in a modification in the production cross-section ratio σΛb0/σB̅ 0 with respect to the CDF I measurement.

First Observation of B̅ s0→Ds±K∓ and Measurement of the Ratio of Branching Fractions B(B̅ s0→Ds±K∓)/B(B̅ s0→Ds+π-)

A combined mass and particle identification fit is used to make the first observation of the decay B̅ s0→Ds±K∓ and measure the branching fraction of B̅ s0→Ds±K∓ relative to B̅ s0→Ds+π-. This analysis uses 1.2  fb-1 integrated luminosity of pp̅ collisions at √s=1.96  TeV collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. We observe a B̅ s0→Ds±K∓ signal with a statistical significance of 8.1σ and measure B(B̅ s0→Ds±K∓)/B(B̅ s0→Ds+π-)=0.097±0.018(stat)±0.009(syst).

First Observation of B̅ s0→Ds±K∓ and Measurement of the Ratio of Branching Fractions B(B̅ s0→Ds±K∓)/B(B̅ s0→Ds+π-)

A combined mass and particle identification fit is used to make the first observation of the decay Bs --> Ds K and measure the branching fraction of Bs --> Ds K relative to Bs --> Ds pi. This analysis uses 1.2 fb^-1 integrated luminosity of pbar-p collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. We observe a Bs --> Ds K signal with a statistical significance of 8.1 sigma and measure Br(Bs --> Ds K)/Br(Bs --> Ds pi) = 0.097 +- 0.018(stat) +- 0.009(sys).

Origins of the sex differences in handedness and mental rotation ability : genetic, environmental and hormonal effects

In humans, well-replicated and robust sex differences in cognitive functions exist for handedness and mental rotation ability. A common characteristic in human cognitive functions is the lateralization of language functions. Handedness is a common measure of laterality and is related to language lateralization. The prevalence of left-handedness is higher in males than in females, the male to female ratio being about 1.2. Among cognitive abilities, the largest sex difference is evident in the Vandenberg and Kuse Mental Rotation Test (MRT), which requires the ability to rotate objects in mental space. On average, males achieve scores one standard deviation higher than females in the MRT. The present thesis investigated the origins of the sex differences in laterality and spatial ability as represented by handedness and mental rotation ability, respectively. Two population-based Finnish twin cohorts were utilized in this study. Handedness was studied in 25 810 twins and 4068 singletons born before 1958 from the Older Finnish Twin Cohort, and in 4736 twins born in 1983-87 from the FinnTwin12. MRT was studied in a sub-sample of 804 young adult participants from the FinnTwin12 sample. The main findings of this study were: 1) the prevalence of left-handedness was higher among males than among females in both singletons and in twins; 2) males had significantly higher scores than females in MRT; 3) about one quarter of the variance in handedness and about half of the variance in MRT was explained by genetic effects, whereas the remainder of the variance in these traits was explained by environmental effects unique to each individual. The magnitude of the genetic effects was similar in both sexes; 4) left-handedness was significantly less common in female co-twins of a male than in female co-twins of a female, and female co-twins of a male scored significantly higher than did female co-twins of a female in the Mental Rotation Test. This dissertation discusses whether these differences between females from opposite- and same-sex twin pairs are due to the prenatal transfer of testosterone from the male fetus in females with male co-twins or whether they arise from postnatal socialization effects.

An application of a physically based SOIL model to the Bowen ratio data

Yhteenveto: Haihdunnan mittaamisesta ja mallintamisesta peltoalueella

Technology-related peso problems in stock returns

Although empirical evidence suggests the contrary, many asset pricing models assume stock returns to be symmetrically distributed. In this paper it is argued that the occurrence of negative jumps in a firm's future earnings and, consequently, in its stock price, is positively related to the level of network externalities in the firm's product market. If the ex post frequency of these negative jumps in a sample does not equal the ex ante assessed probability of occurrence, the sample is subject to a peso problem. The hypothesis is tested for by regressing the skewness coefficient of a firm’s realised stock return distribution on the firm’s R&D intensity, i.e. the ratio of the firm’s research and development expenditure to its net sales. The empirical results support the technology-related peso problem hypothesis. In samples subject to such a peso problem, the returns are biased up and the variance is biased down.