Society by Numbers : Studies on Model-Based Explanations in the Social Sciences

The aim of this dissertation is to provide conceptual tools for the social scientist for clarifying, evaluating and comparing explanations of social phenomena based on formal mathematical models. The focus is on relatively simple theoretical models and simulations, not statistical models. These studies apply a theory of explanation according to which explanation is about tracing objective relations of dependence, knowledge of which enables answers to contrastive why and how-questions. This theory is developed further by delineating criteria for evaluating competing explanations and by applying the theory to social scientific modelling practices and to the key concepts of equilibrium and mechanism. The dissertation is comprised of an introductory essay and six published original research articles. The main theses about model-based explanations in the social sciences argued for in the articles are the following. 1) The concept of explanatory power, often used to argue for the superiority of one explanation over another, compasses five dimensions which are partially independent and involve some systematic trade-offs. 2) All equilibrium explanations do not causally explain the obtaining of the end equilibrium state with the multiple possible initial states. Instead, they often constitutively explain the macro property of the system with the micro properties of the parts (together with their organization). 3) There is an important ambivalence in the concept mechanism used in many model-based explanations and this difference corresponds to a difference between two alternative research heuristics. 4) Whether unrealistic assumptions in a model (such as a rational choice model) are detrimental to an explanation provided by the model depends on whether the representation of the explanatory dependency in the model is itself dependent on the particular unrealistic assumptions. Thus evaluating whether a literally false assumption in a model is problematic requires specifying exactly what is supposed to be explained and by what. 5) The question of whether an explanatory relationship depends on particular false assumptions can be explored with the process of derivational robustness analysis and the importance of robustness analysis accounts for some of the puzzling features of the tradition of model-building in economics. 6) The fact that economists have been relatively reluctant to use true agent-based simulations to formulate explanations can partially be explained by the specific ideal of scientific understanding implicit in the practise of orthodox economics.

The social patterning of health, smoking and drinking in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland in 1994-2004

The Baltic countries share public health problems typical of most Eastern European transition economies: morbidity and mortality from non-communicable diseases is higher than in Western European countries. This situation has many similarities compared to a neighbouring country, Finland during the late 1960s. There are reasons to expect that health disadvantage may be increasing among the less advantaged population groups in the Baltic countries. The evidence on social differences in health in the Baltic countries is, however, scattered to studies using different methodologies making comparisons difficult. This study aims to bridge the evidence gap by providing comparable standardized cross-sectional and time trend analyses to the social patterning of variation in health and two key health behaviours i.e. smoking and drinking in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland in 1994-2004 representing Eastern European transition countries and a stable Western European country. The data consisted of similar cross-sectional postal surveys conducted in 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004 on adult populations (aged 20 64 years) in Estonia (n=9049), Latvia (n=7685), Lithuania (n=11634) and Finland (n=18821) in connection with the Finbalt Health Monitor project. The main statistical method was logistic regression analysis. Perceived health was found to be worse among both men and women in the Baltic countries than in Finland. Poor health was associated with older age and lower education in all countries studied. Urbanization and marital status were not consistently related to health. The existing educational inequalities in health remained generally stable over time from 1994 to 2004. In the Baltic countries, however, improvement in perceived health was mainly found among the better educated men and women. Daily smoking was associated with young age, lower education and psychological distress in all countries. Among women smoking was also associated with urbanisation in all countries except Estonia. Among Lithuanian women, the educational gradient in smoking was weakest, and the overall prevalence of smoking increased over time. Drinking was generally associated with young age among men and women, and with education among women. Better educated women were more often frequent drinkers and less educated binge drinkers. The exception was that in Latvian men and women both frequent drinking and binge drinking were associated with low education. In conclusion, the Baltic countries are likely to resemble Western European countries rather than other transition societies. While health inequalities did not markedly change, substantial inequalities do remain, and there were indications of favourable developments mainly among the better educated. Pressures towards increasing health inequalities may therefore be visible in the future, which would be in accordance with the results on smoking and drinking in this study.

The Relational Self, the Social Bond and the Dynamics of Personal Relationships : A Sociological Analysis

This study analyses personal relationships linking research to sociological theory on the questions of the social bond and on the self as social. From the viewpoint of disruptive life events and experiences, such as loss, divorce and illness, it aims at understanding how selves are bound to their significant others as those specific people ‘close or otherwise important’ to them. Who form the configurations of significant others? How do different bonds respond in disruptions and how do relational processes unfold? How is the embeddedness of selves manifested in the processes of bonding, on the one hand, and in the relational formation of the self, on the other? The bonds are analyzed from an anti-categorical viewpoint based on personal citations of significance as opposed to given relationship categories, such as ‘family’ or ‘friendship’ – the two kinds of relationships that in fact are most frequently significant. The study draws from analysis of the personal narratives of 37 Finnish women and men (in all 80 interviews) and their entire configurations of those specific people who they cite as ‘close or otherwise important’. The analysis stresses the subjective experiences, while also investigating the actualized relational processes and configurations of all personal relationships with certain relationship histories embedded in micro-level structures. The research is based on four empirical sub-studies of personal relationships and a summary discussing the questions of the self and social bond. Discussion draws from G. H. Mead, C. Cooley, N. Elias, T. Scheff, G. Simmel and the contributors of ‘relational sociology’. Sub-studies analyse bonds to others from the viewpoint of biographical disruption and re-configuration of significant others, estranged family bonds, peer support and the formation of the most intimate relationships into exclusive and inclusive configurations. All analyses examine the dialectics of the social and the personal, asking how different structuring mechanisms and personal experiences and negotiations together contribute to the unfolding of the bonds. The summary elaborates personal relationships as social bonds embedded in wider webs of interdependent people and social settings that are laden with cultural expectations. Regarding the question of the relational self, the study proposes both bonding and individuality as significant. They are seen as interdependent phases of the relationality of the self. Bonding anchors the self to its significant relationships, in which individuality is manifested, for example, in contrasting and differentiating dynamics, but also in active attempts to connect with others. Individuality is not a fixed quality of the self, but a fluid and interdependent phase of the relational self. More specifically, it appears in three formats in the flux of relational processes: as a sense of unique self (via cultivation of subjective experiences), as agency and as (a search for) relative autonomy. The study includes an epilogue addressing the ambivalence between the social expectation of individuality in society and the bonded reality of selves.