Generalizations and Models in Ecology : Lawlikeness, Invariance, Stability, and Robustness

The question at issue in this dissertation is the epistemic role played by ecological generalizations and models. I investigate and analyze such properties of generalizations as lawlikeness, invariance, and stability, and I ask which of these properties are relevant in the context of scientific explanations. I will claim that there are generalizable and reliable causal explanations in ecology by generalizations, which are invariant and stable. An invariant generalization continues to hold or be valid under a special change called an intervention that changes the value of its variables. Whether a generalization remains invariant during its interventions is the criterion that determines whether it is explanatory. A generalization can be invariant and explanatory regardless of its lawlike status. Stability deals with a generality that has to do with holding of a generalization in possible background conditions. The more stable a generalization, the less dependent it is on background conditions to remain true. Although it is invariance rather than stability of generalizations that furnishes us with explanatory generalizations, there is an important function that stability has in this context of explanations, namely, stability furnishes us with extrapolability and reliability of scientific explanations. I also discuss non-empirical investigations of models that I call robustness and sensitivity analyses. I call sensitivity analyses investigations in which one model is studied with regard to its stability conditions by making changes and variations to the values of the model s parameters. As a general definition of robustness analyses I propose investigations of variations in modeling assumptions of different models of the same phenomenon in which the focus is on whether they produce similar or convergent results or not. Robustness and sensitivity analyses are powerful tools for studying the conditions and assumptions where models break down and they are especially powerful in pointing out reasons as to why they do this. They show which conditions or assumptions the results of models depend on. Key words: ecology, generalizations, invariance, lawlikeness, philosophy of science, robustness, explanation, models, stability

High-quality polar UV measurements : scientific analyses and transfer of the irradiance scale

The Earth's ecosystems are protected from the dangerous part of the solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation by stratospheric ozone, which absorbs most of the harmful UV wavelengths. Severe depletion of stratospheric ozone has been observed in the Antarctic region, and to a lesser extent in the Arctic and midlatitudes. Concern about the effects of increasing UV radiation on human beings and the natural environment has led to ground based monitoring of UV radiation. In order to achieve high-quality UV time series for scientific analyses, proper quality control (QC) and quality assurance (QA) procedures have to be followed. In this work, practices of QC and QA are developed for Brewer spectroradiometers and NILU-UV multifilter radiometers, which measure in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, respectively. These practices are applicable to other UV instruments as well. The spectral features and the effect of different factors affecting UV radiation were studied for the spectral UV time series at Sodankylä. The QA of the Finnish Meteorological Institute's (FMI) two Brewer spectroradiometers included daily maintenance, laboratory characterizations, the calculation of long-term spectral responsivity, data processing and quality assessment. New methods for the cosine correction, the temperature correction and the calculation of long-term changes of spectral responsivity were developed. Reconstructed UV irradiances were used as a QA tool for spectroradiometer data. The actual cosine correction factor was found to vary between 1.08-1.12 and 1.08-1.13. The temperature characterization showed a linear temperature dependence between the instrument's internal temperature and the photon counts per cycle. Both Brewers have participated in international spectroradiometer comparisons and have shown good stability. The differences between the Brewers and the portable reference spectroradiometer QASUME have been within 5% during 2002-2010. The features of the spectral UV radiation time series at Sodankylä were analysed for the time period 1990-2001. No statistically significant long-term changes in UV irradiances were found, and the results were strongly dependent on the time period studied. Ozone was the dominant factor affecting UV radiation during the springtime, whereas clouds played a more important role during the summertime. During this work, the Antarctic NILU-UV multifilter radiometer network was established by the Instituto Nacional de Meteorogía (INM) as a joint Spanish-Argentinian-Finnish cooperation project. As part of this work, the QC/QA practices of the network were developed. They included training of the operators, daily maintenance, regular lamp tests and solar comparisons with the travelling reference instrument. Drifts of up to 35% in the sensitivity of the channels of the NILU-UV multifilter radiometers were found during the first four years of operation. This work emphasized the importance of proper QC/QA, including regular lamp tests, for the multifilter radiometers also. The effect of the drifts were corrected by a method scaling the site NILU-UV channels to those of the travelling reference NILU-UV. After correction, the mean ratios of erythemally-weighted UV dose rates measured during solar comparisons between the reference NILU-UV and the site NILU-UVs were 1.007±0.011 and 1.012±0.012 for Ushuaia and Marambio, respectively, when the solar zenith angle varied up to 80°. Solar comparisons between the NILU-UVs and spectroradiometers showed a ±5% difference near local noon time, which can be seen as proof of successful QC/QA procedures and transfer of irradiance scales. This work also showed that UV measurements made in the Arctic and Antarctic can be comparable with each other.

The Unable Individual : The Actantial Analyses of Three Chinese Films and Discussion on Their Representations of the Individual’s Position in Contemporary Chinese Society

The thesis studies three contemporary Chinese films, Incense (Xianghuo 2003), Beijing Bicycle (Shiqi sui de danche, 2001), and South of the Clouds (Yun de nanfang, 2004). The aim of the thesis is to find out how these films represent the individual, his relationships with others, and his possibilities in society. The films all portray a male individual setting out to pursue a goal, facing one obstacle after the other in the process, and in the end failing to achieve his goal. The other characters in the films are also primarily either unable or unwilling to help the lead character. In the thesis these features of the films are analysed by applying A.J. Greimas’s structuralist semiotic theory about the actantial structure of discourses. The questions about the individual’s position are answered by defining which instances in the films actually represent the actantial positions of the sender, receiver, subject, object, helper and opponent. The results of the actantial analyses of the three films are further discussed in the light of theories regarding individualization. The focus is on the theories of Ulrich Beck, Elisabeth Beck-Gernsheim and Zygmunt Bauman, who see a development towards individualization in societies following the disintegration of traditional social structures. For the most part, these theories do seem to be applicable to the films’ representations of the individual’s position, especially regarding the increased responsibility of the individual. For example, the position of the family is represented as either insignificant or negative in all of the films, which fits with the description of the individualized society, contradicting the idea of traditional Chinese society. On the other hand, the identities and goals of the characters in the films are not represented as fragmented in the way the theories would suggest.

Signifying Angels : Analyses and Interpretations of Rautavaara s Instrumental Compositions

The subject of doctoral thesis is the analysis and interpretation of instrumental pieces composed by Einojuhani Rautavaara (b. 1928) that have been given angelic titles: Archangel Michael Fighting the Antichrist from the suite Icons (1955)/Before the Icons (2006), Angels and Visitations (1978), the Double Bass Concerto Angel of Dusk (1980), Playgrounds for Angels (1981)and the Seventh Symphony Angel of Light (1994). The aim of the work is to find those musical elements common to these pieces that distinguish them from Rautavaara s other works and to determine if they could be thought of as a series. I prove that behind the common elements and titles stands the same extramusical idea the figure of an angel that the composer has described in his commentaries. The thesis is divided into three parts. Since all of the compositions possess titles that refer to the spiritual symbol of an angel, the first part offers a theoretical background to demonstrate the significant role played by angels in various religions and beliefs, and the means by which music has attempted to represent this symbol throughout history. This background traces also Rautavaara s aesthetic attitude as a spiritual composer whose output can be studied with reference to his extramusical interests including literature, psychology, painting, philosophy and myths. The second part focuses on the analysis of the instrumental compositions with angelic titles, without giving consideration to their commentaries and titles. The analyses concentrate in particular on those musical features that distinguish these pieces from Rautavaara s other compositions. In the third part these musical features are interpreted as symbols of the angel through comparison with vocal and instrumental pieces which contain references to the character of an angel, structures of mythical narration, special musical expressions, use of instruments and aspects of brightness. Finally I explore the composer s interpretative codes, drawing on Rilke s cycle of poems Ten Duino Elegies and Jung s theory of archetypes, and analyze the instrumental pieces with angelic titles in the light of the theory of musical ekphrasis.

Development of microdevices for proteome research and diagnosis

The basic goal of a proteomic microchip is to achieve efficient and sensitive high throughput protein analyses, automatically carrying out several measurements in parallel. A protein microchip would either detect a single protein or a large set of proteins for diagnostic purposes, basic proteome or functional analysis. Such analyses would include e.g. interactomics, general protein expression studies, detecting structural alterations or secondary modifications. Visualization of the results may occur by simple immunoreactions, general or specific labelling, or mass spectrometry. For this purpose we have manufactured chip-based proteome analysis devices that utilize the classical polymer gel electrophoresis technology to run one and two-dimensional gel electrophoresis separations of proteins in just a smaller size. In total, we manufactured three functional prototypes of which one performed a miniaturized one-dimensional gel electrophoresis (1-DE) separation, the second and third preformed two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DE) separations. These microchips were successfully used to separate and characterize a set of predefined standard proteins, cell and tissue samples. Also, the miniaturized 2-DE (ComPress-2DE) chip presents a novel way of combining the 1st and 2nd dimensional separations, thus avoiding manual handling of the gels, eliminate cross-contamination, and make analyses faster and repeatability better. They all showed the advantages of miniaturization over the commercial devices; such as fast analysis, low sample- and reagent consumption, high sensitivity, high repeatability and inexpensive performance. All these instruments have the potential to be fully automated due to their easy-to-use set-up.

Noise sensitivity medical, psychological and genetic aspects

Noise can be defined as unwanted sound. It may adversely affect the health and well-being of individuals. Noise sensitivity is a personality trait covering attitudes towards noise in general and a predictor of noise annoyance. Noise sensitive individuals are more affected by noise than less sensitive individuals. The determinants and characteristics related to noise sensitivity are rather poorly known. The risk of health effects caused by noise can be hypothesized to be higher for noise sensitive individuals compared to those who are not noise sensitive. A cardiovascular disease may be an example of outcomes. The general aim of the present study was to investigate the association of noise sensitivity with specific somatic and psychological factors, including the genetic component of noise sensitivity, and the association of noise sensitivity with mortality. The study was based on the Finnish Twin Cohort of same-sex twin pairs born before 1958. In 1988 a questionnaire was sent to twin pairs discordant for hypertension. 1495 individuals (688 men, 807 women) aged 31 88 years replied, including 573 twin pairs. 218 of the subjects lived in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area. Self-reported noise sensitivity, lifetime noise exposure and hypertension were obtained from the questionnaire study in 1988 and other somatic and psychological factors from the questionnaire study in 1981 for the same individuals. In addition, noise map information (1988 1992) from the Helsinki Metropolitan Area and mortality follow-up 1989 2003 were used. To evaluate the stability and validity of noise sensitivity, a new questionnaire was sent in 2002 to a sample of the subjects who had replied to the 1988 questionnaire. Of all subjects who had answered the question on noise sensitivity, 38 % were noise sensitive. Noise sensitivity was independent of noise exposure levels indicated in noise maps. Subjects with high noise sensitivity reported more transportation noise exposure than subjects with low noise sensitivity. Noise sensitive subjects reported transportation noise exposure outside the environmental noise map areas almost twice as often as non-sensitive subjects. Noise sensitivity was associated with hypertension, emphysema, use of psychotropic drugs, smoking, stress and hostility, even when lifetime noise exposure was adjusted for. Monozygotic twin pairs were more similar with regards noise sensitivity than dizygotic twin pairs, and quantitative genetic modelling indicated significant familiality. The best fitting genetic model provided an estimate of heritability of 36 %. Follow-up of subjects in the case-control study showed that cardiovascular mortality was significantly increased among noise sensitive women, but not among men. For coronary heart mortality the interaction of noise sensitivity and lifetime noise exposure was statistically significant in women. In conclusion, noise sensitivity has both somatic and psychological components. It does aggregate in families and probably has a genetic component. Noise sensitivity may be a risk factor for cardiovascular mortality in women.

Devolution of forest-related rights: Comparative analyses of six developing countries

The study focused on the different ways that forest-related rights can be devolved to the local level according to the current legal frameworks in Laos, Nepal, Vietnam, Kenya, Mozambique and Tanzania. The eleven case studies represented the main ways in which forest-related rights can be devolved to communities or households in these countries. The objectives of this study were to 1) analyse the contents and extent of forest-related rights that can be devolved to the local level, 2) develop an empirical typology that represents the main types of devolution, and 3) compare the cases against a theoretical ideal type to assess in what way and to what extent the cases are similar to or differ from the theoretical construct. Fuzzy set theory, Qualitative Comparative Analysis and ideal type analysis were used in analysing the case studies and in developing an empirical typology. The theoretical framework, which guided data collection and analyses, was based on institutional economics and theories on property rights, common pool resources and collective action. On the basis of the theoretical and empirical knowledge, the most important attributes of rights were defined as use rights, management rights, exclusion rights, transfer rights and the duration and security of the rights. The ideal type was defined as one where local actors have been devolved comprehensive use rights, extensive management rights, rights to exclude others from the resource and rights to transfer these rights. In addition, the rights are to be secure and held perpetually. The ideal type was used to structure the analysis and as a tool against which the cases were analysed. The contents, extent and duration of the devolved rights varied greatly. In general, the results show that devolution has mainly meant the transfer of use rights to the local level, and has not really changed the overall state control over forest resources. In most cases the right holders participate, or have a limited role in the decision making regarding the harvesting and management of the resource. There was a clear tendency to devolve the rights to enforce rules and to monitor resource use and condition more extensively than the powers to decide on the management and development of the resource. The empirical typology of the cases differentiated between five different types of devolution. The types can be characterised by the devolution of 1) restricted use and control rights, 2) extensive use rights but restricted control rights, 3) extensive rights, 4) insecure, short term use and restricted control rights, and 5) insecure extensive rights. Overall, the case studies conformity to the ideal type was very low: only two cases were similar to the ideal type, all other cases differed considerably from the ideal type. The restricted management rights were the most common reason for the low conformity to the ideal type (eight cases). In three cases, the short term of the rights, restricted transfer rights, restricted use rights or restricted exclusion rights were the reason or one of the reasons for the low conformity to the ideal type. In two cases the rights were not secure.

Temperature sensitivity of soil organic matter decomposition in boreal soils

The temperature sensitivity of decomposition of different soil organic matter (SOM) fractions was studied with laboratory incubations using 13C and 14C isotopes to differentiate between SOM of different age. The quality of SOM and the functionality and composition of microbial communities in soils formed under different climatic conditions were also studied. Transferring of organic layers from a colder to a warmer climate was used to assess how changing climate, litter input and soil biology will affect soil respiration and its temperature sensitivity. Together, these studies gave a consistent picture on how warming climate will affect the decomposition of different SOM fractions in Finnish forest soils: the most labile C was least temperature sensitive, indicating that it is utilized irrespective of temperature. The decomposition of intermediate C, with mean residence times from some years to decades, was found to be highly temperature sensitive. Even older, centennially cycling C was again less temperature sensitive, indicating that different stabilizing mechanisms were limiting its decomposition even at higher temperatures. Because the highly temperature sensitive, decadally cycling C, forms a major part of SOM stock in the organic layers of the studied forest soils, these results mean that these soils could lose more carbon during the coming years and decades than estimated earlier. SOM decomposition in boreal forest soils is likely to increase more in response to climate warming, compared to temperate or tropical soils, also because the Q10 is temperature dependent. In the northern soils the warming will occur at a lower temperature range, where Q10 is higher, and a similar increase in temperature causes a higher relative increase in respiration rates. The Q10 at low temperatures was found to be inversely related to SOM quality. At higher temperatures respiration was increasingly limited by low substrate availability.

Structural analyses of (1->3),(1->4)-β-D-glucan of oats and barley

The structures of (1→3),(1→4)-β-D-glucans of oat bran, whole-grain oats and barley and processed foods were analysed. Various methods of hydrolysis of β-glucan, the content of insoluble fibre of whole grains of oats and barley and the solution behaviour of oat and barley β-glucans were studied. The isolated soluble β-glucans of oat bran and whole-grain oats and barley were hydrolysed with lichenase, an enzyme specific for (1→3),(1→4)-β-D-β-glucans. The amounts of oligosaccharides produced from bran were analysed with capillary electrophoresis and those from whole-grains with high-performance anion-exchange chromatography with pulse-amperometric detection. The main products were 3-O-β-cellobiosyl-D-glucose and 3-O-β-cellotriosyl-D-glucose, the oligosaccharides which have a degree of polymerisation denoted by DP3 and DP4. Small differences were detected between soluble and insoluble β-glucans and also between β-glucans of oats and barley. These differences can only be seen in the DP3:DP4 ratio which was higher for barley than for oat and also higher for insoluble than for soluble β-glucan. A greater proportion of barley β-glucan remained insoluble than of oat β-glucan. The molar masses of soluble β-glucans of oats and barley were the same as were those of insoluble β-glucans of oats and barley. To analyse the effects of cooking, baking, fermentation and drying, β-glucan was isolated from porridge, bread and fermentate and also from their starting materials. More β-glucan was released after cooking and less after baking. Drying decreased the extractability for bread and fermentate but increased it for porridge. Different hydrolysis methods of β-glucan were compared. Acid hydrolysis and the modified AOAC method gave similar results. The results of hydrolysis with lichenase gave higher recoveries than the other two. The combination of lichenase hydrolysis and high-performance anion-exchange chromatography with pulse-amperometric detection was found best for the analysis of β-glucan content. The content of insoluble fibre was higher for barley than for oats and the amount of β-glucan in the insoluble fibre fraction was higher for oats than for barley. The flow properties of both water and aqueous cuoxam solutions of oat and barley β-glucans were studied. Shear thinning was stronger for the water solutions of oat β-glucan than for barley β-glucan. In aqueous cuoxam shear thinning was not observed at the same concentration as in water but only with high concentration solutions. Then the viscosity of barley β-glucan was slightly higher than that of oat β-glucan. The oscillatory measurements showed that the crossover point of the G´ and G´´ curves was much lower for barley β-glucan than for oat β-glucan indicating a higher tendency towards solid-like behaviour for barley β-glucan than for oat β-glucan.

Components of productivity growth in Finnish agriculture

The objective was to measure productivity growth and its components in Finnish agriculture, especially in dairy farming. The objective was also to compare different methods and models - both parametric (stochastic frontier analysis) and non-parametric (data envelopment analysis) - in estimating the components of productivity growth and the sensitivity of results with respect to different approaches. The parametric approach was also applied in the investigation of various aspects of heterogeneity. A common feature of the first three of five articles is that they concentrate empirically on technical change, technical efficiency change and the scale effect, mainly on the basis of the decompositions of Malmquist productivity index. The last two articles explore an intermediate route between the Fisher and Malmquist productivity indices and develop a detailed but meaningful decomposition for the Fisher index, including also empirical applications. Distance functions play a central role in the decomposition of Malmquist and Fisher productivity indices. Three panel data sets from 1990s have been applied in the study. The common feature of all data used is that they cover the periods before and after Finnish EU accession. Another common feature is that the analysis mainly concentrates on dairy farms or their roughage production systems. Productivity growth on Finnish dairy farms was relatively slow in the 1990s: approximately one percent per year, independent of the method used. Despite considerable annual variation, productivity growth seems to have accelerated towards the end of the period. There was a slowdown in the mid-1990s at the time of EU accession. No clear immediate effects of EU accession with respect to technical efficiency could be observed. Technical change has been the main contributor to productivity growth on dairy farms. However, average technical efficiency often showed a declining trend, meaning that the deviations from the best practice frontier are increasing over time. This suggests different paths of adjustment at the farm level. However, different methods to some extent provide different results, especially for the sub-components of productivity growth. In most analyses on dairy farms the scale effect on productivity growth was minor. A positive scale effect would be important for improving the competitiveness of Finnish agriculture through increasing farm size. This small effect may also be related to the structure of agriculture and to the allocation of investments to specific groups of farms during the research period. The result may also indicate that the utilization of scale economies faces special constraints in Finnish conditions. However, the analysis of a sample of all types of farms suggested a more considerable scale effect than the analysis on dairy farms.

Reconstructions of past climates from documentary and natural sources in Finland since the 18th century

In this paper both documentary and natural proxy data have been used to improve the accuracy of palaeoclimatic knowledge in Finland since the 18th century. Early meteorological observations from Turku (1748-1800) were analyzed first as a potential source of climate variability. The reliability of the calculated mean temperatures was evaluated by comparing them with those of contemporary temperature records from Stockholm, St. Petersburg and Uppsala. The resulting monthly, seasonal and yearly mean temperatures from 1748 to 1800 were compared with the present day mean values (1961-1990): the comparison suggests that the winters of the period 1749-1800 were 0.8 ºC colder than today, while the summers were 0.4 ºC warmer. Over the same period, springs were 0.9 ºC and autumns 0.1 ºC colder than today. Despite their uncertainties when compared with modern meteorological data, early temperature measurements offer direct and daily information about the weather for all months of the year, in contrast with other proxies. Secondly, early meteorological observations from Tornio (1737-1749) and Ylitornio (1792-1838) were used to study the temporal behaviour of the climate-tree growth relationship during the past three centuries in northern Finland. Analyses showed that the correlations between ring widths and mid-summer (July) temperatures did not vary significantly as a function of time. Early (June) and late summer (August) mean temperatures were secondary to mid-summer temperatures in controlling the radial growth. According the dataset used, there was no clear signature of temporally reduced sensitivity of Scots pine ring widths to mid-summer temperatures over the periods of early and modern meteorological observations. Thirdly, plant phenological data with tree-rings from south-west Finland since 1750 were examined as a palaeoclimate indicator. The information from the fragmentary, partly overlapping, partly nonsystematically biased plant phenological records of 14 different phenomena were combined into one continuous time series of phenological indices. The indices were found to be reliable indicators of the February to June temperature variations. In contrast, there was no correlation between the phenological indices and the precipitation data. Moreover, the correlations between the studied tree-rings and spring temperatures varied as a function of time and hence, their use in palaeoclimate reconstruction is questionable. The use of present tree-ring datasets for palaeoclimate purposes may become possible after the application of more sophisticated calibration methods. Climate variability since the 18th century is perhaps best seen in the fourth paper study of the multiproxy spring temperature reconstruction of south-west Finland. With the help of transfer functions, an attempt has been made to utilize both documentary and natural proxies. The reconstruction was verified with statistics showing a high degree of validity between the reconstructed and observed temperatures. According to the proxies and modern meteorological observations from Turku, springs have become warmer and have featured a warming trend since around the 1850s. Over the period of 1750 to around 1850, springs featured larger multidecadal low-frequency variability, as well as a smaller range of annual temperature variations. The coldest springtimes occurred around the 1840s and 1850s and the first decade of the 19th century. Particularly warm periods occurred in the 1760s, 1790s, 1820s, 1930s, 1970s and from 1987 onwards, although in this period cold springs occurred, such as the springs of 1994 and 1996. On the basis of the available material, long-term temperature changes have been related to changes in the atmospheric circulation, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (February-June).