34 resultados para seasonal cycle
em Helda - Digital Repository of University of Helsinki
Resumo:
Man-induced climate change has raised the need to predict the future climate and its feedback to vegetation. These are studied with global climate models; to ensure the reliability of these predictions, it is important to have a biosphere description that is based upon the latest scientific knowledge. This work concentrates on the modelling of the CO2 exchange of the boreal coniferous forest, studying also the factors controlling its growing season and how these can be used in modelling. In addition, the modelling of CO2 gas exchange at several scales was studied. A canopy-level CO2 gas exchange model was developed based on the biochemical photosynthesis model. This model was first parameterized using CO2 exchange data obtained by eddy covariance (EC) measurements from a Scots pine forest at Sodankylä. The results were compared with a semi-empirical model that was also parameterized using EC measurements. Both of the models gave satisfactory results. The biochemical canopy-level model was further parameterized at three other coniferous forest sites located in Finland and Sweden. At all the sites, the two most important biochemical model parameters showed seasonal behaviour, i.e., their temperature responses changed according to the season. Modelling results were improved when these changeover dates were related to temperature indices. During summer-time the values of the biochemical model parameters were similar at all the four sites. Different control factors for CO2 gas exchange were studied at the four coniferous forests, including how well these factors can be used to predict the initiation and cessation of the CO2 uptake. Temperature indices, atmospheric CO2 concentration, surface albedo and chlorophyll fluorescence (CF) were all found to be useful and have predictive power. In addition, a detailed simulation study of leaf stomata in order to separate physical and biochemical processes was performed. The simulation study brought to light the relative contribution and importance of the physical transport processes. The results of this work can be used in improving CO2 gas exchange models in boreal coniferous forests. The meteorological and biological variables that represent the seasonal cycle were studied, and a method for incorporating this cycle into a biochemical canopy-level model was introduced.
Resumo:
Interaction between forests and the atmosphere occurs by radiative and turbulent transport. The fluxes of energy and mass between surface and the atmosphere directly influence the properties of the lower atmosphere and in longer time scales the global climate. Boreal forest ecosystems are central in the global climate system, and its responses to human activities, because they are significant sources and sinks of greenhouse gases and of aerosol particles. The aim of the present work was to improve our understanding on the existing interplay between biologically active canopy, microenvironment and turbulent flow and quantify. In specific, the aim was to quantify the contribution of different canopy layers to whole forest fluxes. For this purpose, long-term micrometeorological and ecological measurements made in a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) forest at SMEAR II research station in Southern Finland were used. The properties of turbulent flow are strongly modified by the interaction between the canopy elements: momentum is efficiently absorbed in the upper layers of the canopy, mean wind speed and turbulence intensities decrease rapidly towards the forest floor and power spectra is modulated by spectral short-cut . In the relative open forest, diabatic stability above the canopy explained much of the changes in velocity statistics within the canopy except in strongly stable stratification. Large eddies, ranging from tens to hundred meters in size, were responsible for the major fraction of turbulent transport between a forest and the atmosphere. Because of this, the eddy-covariance (EC) method proved to be successful for measuring energy and mass exchange inside a forest canopy with exception of strongly stable conditions. Vertical variations of within canopy microclimate, light attenuation in particular, affect strongly the assimilation and transpiration rates. According to model simulations, assimilation rate decreases with height more rapidly than stomatal conductance (gs) and transpiration and, consequently, the vertical source-sink distributions for carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor (H2O) diverge. Upscaling from a shoot scale to canopy scale was found to be sensitive to chosen stomatal control description. The upscaled canopy level CO2 fluxes can vary as much as 15 % and H2O fluxes 30 % even if the gs models are calibrated against same leaf-level dataset. A pine forest has distinct overstory and understory layers, which both contribute significantly to canopy scale fluxes. The forest floor vegetation and soil accounted between 18 and 25 % of evapotranspiration and between 10 and 20 % of sensible heat exchange. Forest floor was also an important deposition surface for aerosol particles; between 10 and 35 % of dry deposition of particles within size range 10 30 nm occurred there. Because of the northern latitudes, seasonal cycle of climatic factors strongly influence the surface fluxes. Besides the seasonal constraints, partitioning of available energy to sensible and latent heat depends, through stomatal control, on the physiological state of the vegetation. In spring, available energy is consumed mainly as sensible heat and latent heat flux peaked about two months later, in July August. On the other hand, annual evapotranspiration remains rather stable over range of environmental conditions and thus any increase of accumulated radiation affects primarily the sensible heat exchange. Finally, autumn temperature had strong effect on ecosystem respiration but its influence on photosynthetic CO2 uptake was restricted by low radiation levels. Therefore, the projected autumn warming in the coming decades will presumably reduce the positive effects of earlier spring recovery in terms of carbon uptake potential of boreal forests.
Resumo:
The urban heat island phenomenon is the most well-known all-year-round urban climate phenomenon. It occurs in summer during the daytime due to the short-wave radiation from the sun and in wintertime, through anthropogenic heat production. In summertime, the properties of the fabric of city buildings determine how much energy is stored, conducted and transmitted through the material. During night-time, when there is no incoming short-wave radiation, all fabrics of the city release the energy in form of heat back to the urban atmosphere. In wintertime anthropogenic heating of buildings and traffic deliver energy into the urban atmosphere. The initial focus of Helsinki urban heat island was on the description of the intensity of the urban heat island (Fogelberg 1973, Alestalo 1975). In this project our goal was to carry out as many measurements as possible over a large area of Helsinki to give a long term estimate of the Helsinki urban heat island. Helsinki is a city with 550 000 inhabitants and located on the north shore of Finnish Bay of the Baltic Sea. Initially, comparison studies against long-term weather station records showed that our regular, but weekly, sampling of observations adequately describe the Helsinki urban heat island. The project covered an entire seasonal cycle over the 12 months from July 2009 to June 2010. The measurements were conducted using a moving platform following microclimatological traditions. Tuesday was selected as the measuring day because it was the only weekday during the one year time span without any public holidays. Once a week, two set of measurements, in total 104, were conducted in the heterogeneous temperature conditions of Helsinki city centre. In the more homogeneous suburban areas, one set of measurements was taken every second week, to give a total of 52.The first set of measurements took place before noon, and the second 12 hours, just prior to midnight. Helsinki Kaisaniemi weather station was chosen as the reference station. This weather station is located in a large park in the city centre of Helsinki. Along the measurement route, 336 fixed points were established, and the monthly air temperature differences to Kaisaniemi were calculated to produce monthly and annual maps. The monthly air temperature differences were interpolated 21.1 km by 18.1 km horizontal grid with 100 metre resolution residual kriging method. The following independent variables for the kriging interpolation method were used: topographical height, portion of sea area, portion of trees, fraction of built-up and not built-up area, volumes of buildings, and population density. The annual mean air temperature difference gives the best representation of the Helsinki urban heat island effect- Due to natural variability of weather conditions during the measurement campaign care must be taken when interpretation the results for the monthly values. The main results of this urban heat island research project are: a) The city centre of Helsinki is warmer than its surroundings, both on a monthly main basis, and for the annual mean, however, there are only a few grid points, 46 out of 38 191, which display a temperature difference of more than 1K. b) If the monthly spatial variation is air temperature differences is small, then usually the temperature difference between the city and the surroundings is also small. c) Isolated large buildings and suburban centres create their own individual heat island. d) The topographical influence on air temperature can generally be neglected for the monthly mean, but can be strong under certain weather conditions.
Resumo:
Marguerite Duras (1914−1996) was one of the most original French writers and film directors, whose cycles are renowned for a transgeneric repetition variation of human suffering in the modern condition. Her fictionalisation of Asian colonialism, the India Cycle (1964−1976), consists of three novels, Le ravissement de Lol V. Stein (1964), Le Vice-consul (1966) and L'amour (1971), a theatre play, India Song (1973), and three films, La Femme du Gange (1973), India Song (1974) and Son nom de Venise dans Calcutta desért (1976). Duras’s cultural position as a colon in inter-war ‘Indochina’ was the backdrop for this “théâtre-text-film”, while its creation was provoked by the atrocities of World War II and post-war decolonisation. Fictionalising Trauma analyses the aesthetics of the India Cycle as Duras’s critical working-through of historical trauma. From an emotion-focused cognitive viewpoint, the study sheds light on trauma’s narrativisation using the renewed concept of traumatic memory developed by current social neuroscience. Duras is shown to integrate embodied memory and narrative memory into an emotionally progressing fiction. Thus the rhetoric of the India Cycle epitomises a creative symbolisation of the unsayable, which revises the concept of trauma from a semiotic failure into an imaginative metaphorical process. The India Cycle portrays the stagnated situation of a white society in Europe and British India during the thirties. The narratives of three European protagonists and one fictional Cambodian mendicant are organised as analogues mirroring the effects of rejection and loss on both sides of the colonial system. Using trauma as a conceptual prism, the study rearticulates this composition as three roles: those of witnessing writers, rejected survivors and colonial perpetrators. Three problems are analysed in turn by reading the non-verbal markers of the text: the white man as a witness, the subversive trope of the madwoman and the deadlock of the colonists’ destructive passion. The study reveals emotion and fantasy to be crucial elements in critical trauma fiction. Two devices intertwine throughout the cycle: affective images of trauma expressing the horror of life and death, and self-reflexive metafiction distancing the face-value of the melodramatic stories. This strategy dismantles racist and sexist discourses underpinning European life, thus demanding a renewal of cultural memory by an empathic listening to the ‘other’. And as solipsism and madness lead the lives of the white protagonists to tragic ends, the ‘real’ beggar in Calcutta lives in ecological harmony with Nature. This emphasises the failure of colonialism, as the Durasian phantasm ambiguously strives for a deconstruction of the exotic mythical fiction of French ‘Indochina’.
Resumo:
This study discusses the conceptual metaphors of Inari Saami, an endangered, indigenous, Finno-Ugrian language spoken in northern Finland. The research focuses on systematical mappings between source and target domains in conventional Inari Saami metaphors and metonymies. The research material consists of the Inarinsaamen idiomisanakirja [Inari Saami idiom dictionary] which has been compiled by the author in collaboration with an Inari Saami co-author; the Inarilappisches Wörterbuch; Inarinsaamelaista kansantietoutta [Inari Saami folk knowledge]; and Aanaarkiela čájttuzeh [Inari Saami sample texts]. The metaphors and metonymies found in these literary sources are divided into categories on the basis of the target domains and according to the classic model of Lakoff ja Johnson (1980). This method reveals the systematical recurrence of source domains inside each category and thus discovers the systematical patterns of metaphoric mapping, the conceptual metaphors . As a result 44 conceptual metaphors and 16 conceptual metonymies are presented through approximately 500 glossed examples. These findings are discussed against the background of what is known about the cognitive and neural processing of metaphors on the one hand, and what is known about Inari Saami culture on the other. This theoretical framework highlights culture as the underlying force behind conceptual metaphors. The recurring metonymies seem to follow a culturally salient indexicality. For example, the Inari Saami conceptual metonymy TIME IS NATURE reflects the seasonal changes in the year s cycle, which was the salient index of time in traditional Inari Saami culture. The recurring metaphors, for their part, follow a culturally salient iconicity. The conceptual metaphor PRIDE IS ANTLERS is based on an iconicity which is experienced and interpreted by the Inari Saami. A proud person is associated with a reindeer who shows off his impressive antlers. The conceptual metaphor/metonymy seems to be a reflection of culture rather than a cognitive means of understanding an abstract domain in terms of a concrete domain, as hypothesized by certain theoreticians. Repeating this study with other languages may lead to the possibility of typologizing the metaphorical systems of the world s languages and understanding the diversity of metaphor systems in the endangered languages of the world.
Resumo:
The aim of this study was to measure seasonal variation in mood and behaviour. The dual vulnerability and latitude effect hypothesis, the risk of increased appetite, weight and other seasonal symptoms to develop metabolic syndrome, and perception of low illumination in quality of life and mental well-being were assessed. These variations are prevalent in persons who live in high latitudes and need balancing of metabolic processes to adapt to environmental changes due to seasons. A randomized sample of 8028 adults aged 30 and over (55% women) participated in an epidemiological health examination study, The Health 2000, applying the probability proportional to population size method for a range of socio-demographic characteristics. They were present in a face-to-face interview at home and health status examination. The questionnaires included the modified versions of the Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (SPAQ) and Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), the Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) instrument 15D, and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ). The structured and computerized Munich Composite International Diagnostic Interview (M-CIDI) as part of the interview was used to assess diagnoses of mental disorders, and, the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATPIII) criteria were assessed using all the available information to detect metabolic syndrome. A key finding was that 85% of this nationwide representative sample had seasonal variation in mood and behaviour. Approximately 9% of the study population presented combined seasonal and depressive symptoms with a significant association between their scores, and 2.6% had symptoms that corresponded to Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) in severity. Seasonal variations in weight and appetite are two important components that increase the risk of metabolic syndrome. Other factors such as waist circumference and major depressive disorder contributed to the metabolic syndrome as well. Persons reported of having seasonal symptoms were associated with a poorer quality of life and compromised mental well-being, especially if indoors illumination at home and/or at work was experienced as being low. Seasonal and circadian misalignments are suggested to associate with metabolic disorders, and could be remarked if individuals perceive low illumination levels at home and/or at work that affect the health-related quality of life and mental well-being. Keywords: depression, health-related quality of life, illumination, latitude, mental well-being, metabolic syndrome, seasonal variation, winter.
Resumo:
Neurofibromatosis 2 (NF2) is a dominantly inherited disorder, which predisposes to multiple tumours of the nervous system, typically schwannomas and meningiomas. Biallelic inactivation of the NF2 gene occurs both in sporadic and NF2-related schwannomas and in most meningiomas. The NF2 gene product merlin (or schwannomin) is structurally related to the ERM proteins, ezrin, radixin and moesin, which act as molecular linkers between the actin cytoskeleton and the plasma membrane. Merlin is a tumor suppressor that participates in cell cycle regulation. Merlin s phosphorylation status appears to be associated with its tumour suppressor activity, i.e. non-phosphorylated merlin functions as a tumour suppressor, whereas protein phosphorylation results in loss of functional activity. This thesis study was initiated to investigate merlin s role as a tumor suppressor and growth inhibitor. These studies show, that like many other tumor suppressors, also merlin is targeted to the nucleus at some stages of the cell cycle. Merlin s nuclear localization is regulated by cell cycle phase, contact inhibition and adhesion. In addition, a potential nuclear binding partner for merlin was identified, Human Enhancer of Invasion 10 (HEI10), a cyclin B interacting protein. Many tumor suppressors interact with microtubules and this thesis work shows that also merlin colocalizes with microtubules in mitotic structures. Merlin binds microtubules directly, and increases their polymerization in vitro and in vivo. In addition, primary mouse Schwann cells lacking merlin displays disturbed microtubule cytoskeleton. Fourth part of this thesis work began from the notion that PKA phosphorylates an unidentified site from the merlin N-terminus. Our studies show that serine 10 is a target for PKA and modulation of this residue regulates cytoskeletal organization, lamellipodia formation and cell migration. In summary, this thesis work shows that merlin s role is much more versatile than previously thought. It has a yet unidentified role in the nucleus and it participates in the regulation of both microtubules and the actin cytoskeleton. These studies have led to a better understanding of this enigmatic tumor suppressor, which eventually will aid in the design of specific drugs for the NF2 disease.
Defects in tricarboxylic acid cycle enzymes Fumarate hydratase and Succinate dehydrogenase in cancer
Resumo:
Hereditary leiomyomatosis and renal cell cancer (HLRCC) is a recently characterized cancer syndrome which predisposes to cutaneous and uterine leiomyomas as well as renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Uterine leiomyosarcoma (ULMS) has also been observed in certain Finnish HLRCC families. The predisposing gene for this syndrome, fumarate hydratase (FH), was identified in 2002. The well-known function of FH is in the tricarboxylic acid cycle (TCAC) in the energy metabolism of cells. As FH is a novel cancer gene, the role of FH mutations in tumours is in general unknown. Similarly, the mechanisms through which defective FH is associated with tumourigenesis are unclear. The loss of a wild type allele has been observed in virtually all HLRCC patients tumours and the FH enzyme activities are either totally lost or remarkably reduced in the tissues of mutation carrier patients. Therefore, FH is assumed to function as a tumour suppressor. Mutations in genes encoding subunits of other TCAC enzyme SDH have also been reported recently in tumours: mutations in SDHB, SDHC, and SDHD genes predispose to paraganglioma and pheochromocytoma. In the present study, mutations in the SDHB gene were observed to predispose to RCC. This was the first time that mutations in SDHB have been detected in extra-paraganglial tumours. Two different SDHB mutations were observed in two unrelated families. In the first family, the index patient was diagnosed with RCC at the age of 24 years. Additionally, his mother with a paraganglioma (PGL) of the heart and his maternal uncle with lung cancer were both carriers of the mutation. The RCC of the index patient and the PGL of his mother showed LOH. In the other family, an SDHB mutation was detected in two siblings who were both diagnosed with RCC at the ages of 24 and 26 years. Both of the siblings also suffered PGL. All these tumours showed LOH. Therefore, we concluded that mutations in SDHB predispose also for RCC in certain families. Several tumour types were analysed for FH mutations to define the role of FH mutations in these tumour types. In addition, patients with a putative cancer phenotype were analysed to identify new HLRCC families. Three FH variants were detected, of which two were novel. One of the variants was observed in a patient diagnosed with ULMS at the age of 41 years. However, LOH was not detected in the tumour tissue. The FH enzyme activity of the mutated protein was clearly reduced, being 43% of the activity of the normal protein. Together with the results from an earlier study we calculated that the prevalence of FH mutations in Finnish non-syndromic ULMS is around 2.4%. Therefore, FH mutations seem to have a minor role in the pathogenesis on non-syndromic ULMS. Two other germline variants were detected in a novel tumour type, ovarian mucinous cystadenoma. However, tumour tissues of the patients were not available for LOH studies and therefore LOH status remained unclear. Therefore, it is possible that FH mutations predispose also for ovarian tumours but further studies are needed to verify this result. A novel variant form of the FH gene (FHv) was identified and characterized in more detail. FHv contains an alternative first exon (1b), which appeared to function as 5 UTR sequence. The translation of FHv is initiated in vitro from exons two and three. The localization of FHv is both cytosolic and nuclear, in contrast to the localization of FH in mitochondria. FHv is expressed at low levels in all human tissues. Interestingly, the expression was induced after heat shock treatment and in chronic hypoxia. Therefore, FHv might have a role e.g. in the adaptation to unfavourable growth conditions. However, this remains to be elucidated.
Resumo:
Hereditary leiomyomatosis and renal cell cancer (HLRCC) is a rare, dominantly inherited tumor predisposition syndrome characterized by benign cutaneous and uterine (ULM) leiomyomas, and sometimes renal cell cancer (RCC). A few cases of uterine leiomyosarcoma (ULMS) have also been reported. Mutations in a nuclear gene encoding fumarate hydratase (FH), an enzyme of the mitochondrial tricarboxylic acid cycle (TCA cycle), underlie HLRCC. As a recessive condition, germline mutations in FH predispose to a neurological defect, FH deficiency (FHD). Hereditary paragangliomatosis (HPGL) is a dominant disorder associated with paragangliomas and pheochromocytomas. Inherited mutations in three genes encoding subunits of succinate dehydrogenase (SDH), also a TCA cycle enzyme, predispose to HPGL. Both FH and SDH seem to act as tumor suppressors. One of the consequences of the TCA cycle defect is abnormal activation of HIF1 pathway ( pseudohypoxia ) in the HLRCC and HPGL tumors. HIF1 drives transcription of genes encoding e.g. angiogenetic factors which can facilitate tumor growth. Recently hypoxia/HIF1 has been suggested to be one of the causes of genetic instability as well. One of the aims of this study was to broaden the clinical definers of HLRCC. To determine the cancer risk and to identify possible novel tumor types associated with FH mutations eight Finnish HLRCC/FHD families were extensively evaluated. The extension of the pedigrees and the Finnish Cancer Registry based tumor search yielded genealogical and cancer data of altogether 868 individuals. The standardized incidence ratio-based comparison of HLRCC/FHD family members with general Finnish population revealed 6.5-fold risk for RCC. Moreover, risk for ULMS was highly increased. However, according to the recent and more stringent diagnosis criteria of ULMS many of the HLRCC uterine tumors previously considered malignant are at present diagnosed as atypical or proliferative ULMs (with a low risk of recurrence). Thus, the formation of ULMS (as presently defined) in HLRCC appears to be uncommon. Though increased incidence was not observed, interestingly the genetic analyses suggested possible association of breast and bladder cancer with loss of FH. Moreover, cancer cases were exceptionally detected in an FHD family. Another clinical finding was the conventional (clear cell) type RCC of a young Spanish HLRCC patient. Conventional RCC is distinct from the types previously observed in this syndrome but according to these results, FH mutation may underlie some of young conventional cancer cases. Secondly, the molecular pathway from defective TCA cycle to tumor formation was intended to clarify. Since HLRCC and HPGL tumors display abnormally activated HIF1, the hypothesis on the link between HIF1/hypoxia and genetic instability was of interest to study in HLRCC and HPGL tumor material. HIF1α (a subunit of HIF1) stabilization was confirmed in the majority of the specimens. However, no repression of MSH2, a protein of DNA mismatch repair system, or microsatellite instability (MSI), an indicator of genetic instability, was observed. Accordingly, increased instability seems not to play a role in the tumorigenesis of pseudohypoxic TCA cycle-deficient tumors. Additionally, to study the putative alternative functions of FH, a recently identified alternative FH transcript (FHv) was characterized. FHv was found to contain instead of exon 1, an alternative exon 1b. Differential subcellular distribution, lack of FH enzyme activity, low mRNA expression compared to FH, and induction by cellular stress suggest FHv to have a role distinct from FH, for example in apoptosis or survival. However, the physiological significance of FHv requires further elucidation.
Resumo:
A small fraction of the energy absorbed in the light reactions of photosynthesis is re-emitted as chlorophyll-a fluorescence. Chlorophyll-a fluorescence and photochemistry compete for excitation energy in photosystem II (PSII). Therefore, changes in the photochemical capacity can be detected through analysis of chlorophyll fluorescence. Chlorophyll fluorescence techniques have been widely used to follow the diurnal (fast), and the seasonal (slow) acclimation in the energy partitioning between photochemical and non-photochemical processes in PSII. Energy partitioning in PSII estimated through chlorophyll fluorescence can be used as a proxy of the plant physiological status, and measured at different spatial and temporal scales. However, a number of technical and theoretical limitations still limit the use of chlorophyll fluorescence data for the study of the acclimation of PSII. The aim of this Thesis was to study the diurnal and seasonal acclimation of PSII in field conditions through the development and testing of new chlorophyll fluorescence-based tools, overcoming these limitations. A new model capable of following the fast acclimation of PSII to rapid fluctuations in light intensity was developed. The model was used to study the rapid acclimation in the electron transport rate under fluctuating light. Additionally, new chlorophyll fluorescence parameters were developed for estimating the seasonal acclimation in the sustained rate constant of thermal energy dissipation and photochemistry. The parameters were used to quantitatively evaluate the effect of light and temperature on the seasonal acclimation of PSII. The results indicated that light environment not only affected the degree but also the kinetics of response of the acclimation to temperature, which was attributed to differences in the structural organization of PSII during seasonal acclimation. Furthermore, zeaxanthin-facilitated thermal dissipation appeared to be the main mechanisms modulating the fraction of absorbed energy being dissipated thermally during winter in field Scots pine. Finally, the integration between diurnal and seasonal acclimation mechanisms was studied using a recently developed instrument MONI-PAM (Walz GmbH, Germany) capable of continuously monitoring the energy partitioning in PSII.
Resumo:
In the 21st century, human-induced global climate change has been highlighted as one of the most serious threats to ecosystems worldwide. According to global climate scenarios, the mean temperature in Finland is expected to increase by 1.8 4.0°C by the end of the century. The regional and seasonal change in temperature has predicted to be spatially and temporally asymmetric, where the High-Arctic and Antarctic areas and winter and spring seasons have been projected to face the highest temperature increase. To understand how species respond to the ongoing climate change, we need to study how climate affects species in different phases of their life cycle. The impact of climate on breeding and migration of eight large-sized bird species was studied in this thesis, taking food availability into account. The findings show that climatic variables have considerable impact on the life-history traits of large-sized birds in northern Europe. The magnitude of climatic effects on migration and breeding was comparable with that of food supply, conventionally regarded as the main factor affecting these life-history traits. Based on the results of this thesis and the current climate scenarios, the following not mutually exclusive responses are possible in the near future. Firstly, asymmetric climate change may result in a mistiming of breeding because mild winters and early spring may lead to earlier breeding, whereas offspring are hatching into colder conditions which elevate mortality. Secondly, climate induced responses can differ between species with different breeding tactics (income vs. capital breeding), so that especially capital breeders can gain advantage on global warming as they can sustain higher energy resources. Thirdly, increasing precipitation has the potential to reduce the breeding success of many species by exposing nestlings to more severe post-hatching conditions and hampering the hunting conditions of parents. Fourthly, decreasing ice cover and earlier ice-break in the Baltic Sea will allow earlier spring migration in waterfowl. In eiders, this can potentially lead to more productive breeding. Fifthly, warming temperatures can favour parents preparing for breeding and increase nestling survival. Lastly, the climate-induced phenological changes in life history events will likely continue. Furthermore, interactions between climate and food resources can be complex and interact with each other. Eiders provide an illustrative example of this complexity, being caught in the crossfire between more benign ice conditions and lower salinity negatively affecting their prime food resource. The general conclusion is that climate is controlling not only the phenology of the species but also their reproductive output, thus affecting the entire population dynamics.