On the behaviour of some physical parameterization methods in high-resolution numerical weather prediction models

Modern-day weather forecasting is highly dependent on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models as the main data source. The evolving state of the atmosphere with time can be numerically predicted by solving a set of hydrodynamic equations, if the initial state is known. However, such a modelling approach always contains approximations that by and large depend on the purpose of use and resolution of the models. Present-day NWP systems operate with horizontal model resolutions in the range from about 40 km to 10 km. Recently, the aim has been to reach operationally to scales of 1 4 km. This requires less approximations in the model equations, more complex treatment of physical processes and, furthermore, more computing power. This thesis concentrates on the physical parameterization methods used in high-resolution NWP models. The main emphasis is on the validation of the grid-size-dependent convection parameterization in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) and on a comprehensive intercomparison of radiative-flux parameterizations. In addition, the problems related to wind prediction near the coastline are addressed with high-resolution meso-scale models. The grid-size-dependent convection parameterization is clearly beneficial for NWP models operating with a dense grid. Results show that the current convection scheme in HIRLAM is still applicable down to a 5.6 km grid size. However, with further improved model resolution, the tendency of the model to overestimate strong precipitation intensities increases in all the experiment runs. For the clear-sky longwave radiation parameterization, schemes used in NWP-models provide much better results in comparison with simple empirical schemes. On the other hand, for the shortwave part of the spectrum, the empirical schemes are more competitive for producing fairly accurate surface fluxes. Overall, even the complex radiation parameterization schemes used in NWP-models seem to be slightly too transparent for both long- and shortwave radiation in clear-sky conditions. For cloudy conditions, simple cloud correction functions are tested. In case of longwave radiation, the empirical cloud correction methods provide rather accurate results, whereas for shortwave radiation the benefit is only marginal. Idealised high-resolution two-dimensional meso-scale model experiments suggest that the reason for the observed formation of the afternoon low level jet (LLJ) over the Gulf of Finland is an inertial oscillation mechanism, when the large-scale flow is from the south-east or west directions. The LLJ is further enhanced by the sea-breeze circulation. A three-dimensional HIRLAM experiment, with a 7.7 km grid size, is able to generate a similar LLJ flow structure as suggested by the 2D-experiments and observations. It is also pointed out that improved model resolution does not necessary lead to better wind forecasts in the statistical sense. In nested systems, the quality of the large-scale host model is really important, especially if the inner meso-scale model domain is small.

Problems of Proto-Slavic Historical Nominal Morphology : On the Basis of Old Church Slavic

In this study I offer a diachronic solution for a number of difficult inflectional endings in Old Church Slavic nominal declensions. In this context I address the perhaps most disputed and the most important question of the Slavic nominal inflectional morphology: whether there was in Proto-Slavic an Auslautgesetz (ALG), a law of final syllables, that narrowed the Proto-Indo-European vowel */o/ to */u/ in closed word-final syllables. In addition, the work contains an exhaustive morphological classification of the nouns and adjectives that occur in canonical Old Church Slavic. I argue that Proto-Indo-European */o/ became Proto-Slavic */u/ before word-final */s/ and */N/. This conclusion is based on the impossibility of finding credible analogical (as opposed to phonological) explanations for the forms supporting the ALG hypothesis, and on the survival of the neuter gender in Slavic. It is not likely that the */o/-stem nominative singular ending */-u/ was borrowed from the accusative singular, because the latter would have been the only paradigmatic form with the stem vowel */-u-/. It is equally unlikely that the ending */-u/ was borrowed from the */u/-stems, because the latter constituted a moribund class. The usually stated motivation for such an analogical borrowing, i.e. a need to prevent the merger of */o/-stem masculines with neuters of the same class, is not tenable. Extra-Slavic, as well as intra-Slavic evidence suggests that phonologically-triggered mergers between two semantically opaque genders do not tend to be prevented, but rather that such mergers lead to the loss of the gender opposition in question. On the other hand, if */-os/ had not become */-us/, most nouns and, most importantly, all adjectives and pronouns would have lost the formal distinction between masculines and neuters. This would have necessarily resulted in the loss of the neuter gender. A new explanation is given for the most apparent piece of evidence against the ALG hypothesis, the nominative-accusative singular of the */es/-stem neuters, e.g. nebo 'sky'. I argue that it arose in late Proto-Slavic dialects, replacing regular nebe, under the influence of the */o/- and */yo/-stems where a correlation had emerged between a hard root-final consonant and the termination -o, on the one hand, and a soft root-final consonant and the termination -e, on the other.

Pitch discrimination in optimal and suboptimal acoustic environments: electroencephalographic, magnetoencephalographic, and behavioral evidence

Pitch discrimination is a fundamental property of the human auditory system. Our understanding of pitch-discrimination mechanisms is important from both theoretical and clinical perspectives. The discrimination of spectrally complex sounds is crucial in the processing of music and speech. Current methods of cognitive neuroscience can track the brain processes underlying sound processing either with precise temporal (EEG and MEG) or spatial resolution (PET and fMRI). A combination of different techniques is therefore required in contemporary auditory research. One of the problems in comparing the EEG/MEG and fMRI methods, however, is the fMRI acoustic noise. In the present thesis, EEG and MEG in combination with behavioral techniques were used, first, to define the ERP correlates of automatic pitch discrimination across a wide frequency range in adults and neonates and, second, they were used to determine the effect of recorded acoustic fMRI noise on those adult ERP and ERF correlates during passive and active pitch discrimination. Pure tones and complex 3-harmonic sounds served as stimuli in the oddball and matching-to-sample paradigms. The results suggest that pitch discrimination in adults, as reflected by MMN latency, is most accurate in the 1000-2000 Hz frequency range, and that pitch discrimination is facilitated further by adding harmonics to the fundamental frequency. Newborn infants are able to discriminate a 20% frequency change in the 250-4000 Hz frequency range, whereas the discrimination of a 5% frequency change was unconfirmed. Furthermore, the effect of the fMRI gradient noise on the automatic processing of pitch change was more prominent for tones with frequencies exceeding 500 Hz, overlapping with the spectral maximum of the noise. When the fundamental frequency of the tones was lower than the spectral maximum of the noise, fMRI noise had no effect on MMN and P3a, whereas the noise delayed and suppressed N1 and exogenous N2. Noise also suppressed the N1 amplitude in a matching-to-sample working memory task. However, the task-related difference observed in the N1 component, suggesting a functional dissociation between the processing of spatial and non-spatial auditory information, was partially preserved in the noise condition. Noise hampered feature coding mechanisms more than it hampered the mechanisms of change detection, involuntary attention, and the segregation of the spatial and non-spatial domains of working-memory. The data presented in the thesis can be used to develop clinical ERP-based frequency-discrimination protocols and combined EEG and fMRI experimental paradigms.

Cancer survivors at work : Work-related problems and factors associated with their employment, work ability and social support from the work community

Due to the improved prognosis of many forms of cancer, an increasing number of cancer survivors are willing to return to work after their treatment. It is generally believed, however, that people with cancer are either unemployed, stay at home, or retire more often than people without cancer. This study investigated the problems that cancer survivors experience on the labour market, as well as the disease-related, sociodemographic and psychosocial factors at work that are associated with the employment and work ability of cancer survivors. The impact of cancer on employment was studied combining the data of Finnish Cancer Registry and census data of the years 1985, 1990, 1995 or 1997 of Statistics Finland. There were two data sets containing 46 312 and 12 542 people with cancer. The results showed that cancer survivors were slightly less often employed than their referents. Two to three years after the diagnosis the employment rate of the cancer survivors was 9% lower than that of their referents (64% vs. 73%), whereas the employment rate was the same before the diagnosis (78%). The employment rate varied greatly according to the cancer type and education. The probability of being employed was greater in the lower than in the higher educational groups. People with cancer were less often employed than people without cancer mainly because of their higher retirement rate (34% vs. 27%). As well as employment, retirement varied by cancer type. The risk of retirement was twofold for people having cancer of the nervous system or people with leukaemia compared to their referents, whereas people with skin cancer, for example, did not have an increased risk of retirement. The aim of the questionnaire study was to investigate whether the work ability of cancer survivors differs from that of people without cancer and whether cancer had impaired their work ability. There were 591 cancer survivors and 757 referents in the data. Even though current work ability of cancer survivors did not differ between the survivors and their referents, 26% of cancer survivors reported that their physical work ability, and 19% that their mental work ability had deteriorated due to cancer. The survivors who had other diseases or had had chemotherapy, most often reported impaired work ability, whereas survivors with a strong commitment to their work organization, or a good social climate at work, reported impairment less frequently. The aim of the other questionnaire study containing 640 people with the history of cancer was to examine extent of social support that cancer survivors needed, and had received from their work community. The cancer survivors had received most support from their co-workers, and they hoped for more support especially from the occupational health care personnel (39% of women and 29% of men). More support was especially needed by men who had lymphoma, had received chemotherapy or had a low education level. The results of this study show that the majority of the survivors are able to return to work. There is, however, a group of cancer survivors who leave work life early, have impaired work ability due to their illness, and suffer from lack of support from their work place and the occupational health services. Treatment-related, as well as sociodemographic factors play an important role in survivors' work-related problems, and presumably their possibilities to continue working.

Burnt area mapping in insular Southeast Asia using medium resolution satellite imagery

Burnt area mapping in humid tropical insular Southeast Asia using medium resolution (250-500m) satellite imagery is characterized by persisting cloud cover, wide range of land cover types, vast amount of wetland areas and highly varying fire regimes. The objective of this study was to deepen understanding of three major aspects affecting the implementation and limits of medium resolution burnt area mapping in insular Southeast Asia: 1) fire-induced spectral changes, 2) most suitable multitemporal compositing methods and 3) burn scars patterns and size distribution. The results revealed a high variation in fire-induced spectral changes depending on the pre-fire greenness of burnt area. It was concluded that this variation needs to be taken into account in change detection based burnt area mapping algorithms in order to maximize the potential of medium resolution satellite data. Minimum near infrared (MODIS band 2, 0.86μm) compositing method was found to be the most suitable for burnt area mapping purposes using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. In general, medium resolution burnt area mapping was found to be usable in the wetlands of insular Southeast Asia, whereas in other areas the usability was seriously jeopardized by the small size of burn scars. The suitability of medium resolution data for burnt area mapping in wetlands is important since recently Southeast Asian wetlands have become a major point of interest in many fields of science due to yearly occurring wild fires that not only degrade these unique ecosystems but also create regional haze problem and release globally significant amounts of carbon into the atmosphere due to burning peat. Finally, super-resolution MODIS images were tested but the test failed to improve the detection of small scars. Therefore, super-resolution technique was not considered to be applicable to regional level burnt area mapping in insular Southeast Asia.

Feasibility of assimilating ASCAT surface winds into a Limited Area Model

Sea-surface wind observations of previous generation scatterometers have been successfully assimilated into Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Impact studies conducted with these assimilation implementations have shown a distinct improvement to model analysis and forecast accuracies. The Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), flown on Metop-A, offers an improved sea-surface wind accuracy and better data coverage when compared to the previous generation scatterometers. Five individual case studies are carried out. The effect of including ASCAT data into High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) assimilation system (4D-Var) is tested to be neutral-positive for situations with general flow direction from the Atlantic Ocean. For northerly flow regimes the effect is negative. This is later discussed to be caused by problems involving modeling northern flows, and also due to the lack of a suitable verification method. Suggestions and an example of an improved verification method is presented later on. A closer examination of a polar low evolution is also shown. It is found that the ASCAT assimilation scheme improves forecast of the initial evolution of the polar low, but the model advects the strong low pressure centre too fast eastward. Finally, the flaws of the implementation are found small and implementing the ASCAT assimilation scheme into the operational HIRLAM suite is feasible, but longer time period validation is still required.

Problems and Algorithms for Sequence Segmentations

The analysis of sequential data is required in many diverse areas such as telecommunications, stock market analysis, and bioinformatics. A basic problem related to the analysis of sequential data is the sequence segmentation problem. A sequence segmentation is a partition of the sequence into a number of non-overlapping segments that cover all data points, such that each segment is as homogeneous as possible. This problem can be solved optimally using a standard dynamic programming algorithm. In the first part of the thesis, we present a new approximation algorithm for the sequence segmentation problem. This algorithm has smaller running time than the optimal dynamic programming algorithm, while it has bounded approximation ratio. The basic idea is to divide the input sequence into subsequences, solve the problem optimally in each subsequence, and then appropriately combine the solutions to the subproblems into one final solution. In the second part of the thesis, we study alternative segmentation models that are devised to better fit the data. More specifically, we focus on clustered segmentations and segmentations with rearrangements. While in the standard segmentation of a multidimensional sequence all dimensions share the same segment boundaries, in a clustered segmentation the multidimensional sequence is segmented in such a way that dimensions are allowed to form clusters. Each cluster of dimensions is then segmented separately. We formally define the problem of clustered segmentations and we experimentally show that segmenting sequences using this segmentation model, leads to solutions with smaller error for the same model cost. Segmentation with rearrangements is a novel variation to the segmentation problem: in addition to partitioning the sequence we also seek to apply a limited amount of reordering, so that the overall representation error is minimized. We formulate the problem of segmentation with rearrangements and we show that it is an NP-hard problem to solve or even to approximate. We devise effective algorithms for the proposed problem, combining ideas from dynamic programming and outlier detection algorithms in sequences. In the final part of the thesis, we discuss the problem of aggregating results of segmentation algorithms on the same set of data points. In this case, we are interested in producing a partitioning of the data that agrees as much as possible with the input partitions. We show that this problem can be solved optimally in polynomial time using dynamic programming. Furthermore, we show that not all data points are candidates for segment boundaries in the optimal solution.

Optimisation Problems in Wireless Sensor Networks : Local Algorithms and Local Graphs

This thesis studies optimisation problems related to modern large-scale distributed systems, such as wireless sensor networks and wireless ad-hoc networks. The concrete tasks that we use as motivating examples are the following: (i) maximising the lifetime of a battery-powered wireless sensor network, (ii) maximising the capacity of a wireless communication network, and (iii) minimising the number of sensors in a surveillance application. A sensor node consumes energy both when it is transmitting or forwarding data, and when it is performing measurements. Hence task (i), lifetime maximisation, can be approached from two different perspectives. First, we can seek for optimal data flows that make the most out of the energy resources available in the network; such optimisation problems are examples of so-called max-min linear programs. Second, we can conserve energy by putting redundant sensors into sleep mode; we arrive at the sleep scheduling problem, in which the objective is to find an optimal schedule that determines when each sensor node is asleep and when it is awake. In a wireless network simultaneous radio transmissions may interfere with each other. Task (ii), capacity maximisation, therefore gives rise to another scheduling problem, the activity scheduling problem, in which the objective is to find a minimum-length conflict-free schedule that satisfies the data transmission requirements of all wireless communication links. Task (iii), minimising the number of sensors, is related to the classical graph problem of finding a minimum dominating set. However, if we are not only interested in detecting an intruder but also locating the intruder, it is not sufficient to solve the dominating set problem; formulations such as minimum-size identifying codes and locating dominating codes are more appropriate. This thesis presents approximation algorithms for each of these optimisation problems, i.e., for max-min linear programs, sleep scheduling, activity scheduling, identifying codes, and locating dominating codes. Two complementary approaches are taken. The main focus is on local algorithms, which are constant-time distributed algorithms. The contributions include local approximation algorithms for max-min linear programs, sleep scheduling, and activity scheduling. In the case of max-min linear programs, tight upper and lower bounds are proved for the best possible approximation ratio that can be achieved by any local algorithm. The second approach is the study of centralised polynomial-time algorithms in local graphs these are geometric graphs whose structure exhibits spatial locality. Among other contributions, it is shown that while identifying codes and locating dominating codes are hard to approximate in general graphs, they admit a polynomial-time approximation scheme in local graphs.

Confronting Confucian Understandings of the Christian Doctrine of Salvation : A systematic theological analysis of the basic problems in the Confucian-Christian dialogue

The aim of the present study is to analyze Confucian understandings of the Christian doctrine of salvation in order to find the basic problems in the Confucian-Christian dialogue. I will approach the task via a systematic theological analysis of four issues in order to limit the thesis to an appropriate size. They are analyzed in three chapters as follows: 1. The Confucian concept concerning the existence of God. Here I discuss mainly the issue of assimilation of the Christian concept of God to the concepts of Sovereign on High (Shangdi) and Heaven (Tian) in Confucianism. 2. The Confucian understanding of the object of salvation and its status in Christianity. 3. The Confucian understanding of the means of salvation in Christianity. Before beginning this analysis it is necessary to clarify the vast variety of controversies, arguments, ideas, opinions and comments expressed in the name of Confucianism; thus, clear distinctions among different schools of Confucianism are given in chapter 2. In the last chapter I will discuss the results of my research in this study by pointing out the basic problems that will appear in the analysis. The results of the present study provide conclusions in three related areas: the tacit differences in the ways of thinking between Confucians and Christians, the basic problems of the Confucian-Christian dialogue, and the affirmative elements in the dialogue. In addition to a summary, a bibliography and an index, there are also eight appendices, where I have introduced important background information for readers to understand the present study.

Traditional Village Governance (Desa Adat) and Inter-ethnic Conflict in Bali : A Study of Conflict between Balinese and Migrants: Cases from Municipality of Denpasar

Regional autonomy in Indonesia was initially introduced as a means of pacifying regional disappointment at the central government. Not only did the Regional Autonomy Law of 1999 give the Balinese a chance to express grievance regarding the centralist policies of the Jakarta government but also provided an opportunity to return to the regional, exclusive, traditional village governance (desa adat). As a result, the problems faced by the island, particularly ethnic conflicts, are increasingly handled by the mechanism of this traditional type of governance. Traditional village governance with regard to ethnic conflicts (occurring) between Balinese and migrants has never been systematically analyzed. Existing analyses emphasized only the social context, but do not explain either the cause of conflicts and the ensuing problems entails or the virtues of traditional village governance mechanisms for mediating in the conflict. While some accounts provide snapshots, they lack both theoretical and conflict study perspective. The primary aim of this dissertation is to explore the expression and the causes of conflict between the Balinese and migrants and to advance the potential of traditional village governance as a means of conflict resolution with particular reference to the municipality of Denpasar. One conclusion of the study is that the conflict between the Balinese and migrants has been expressed on the level of situation/contradiction, attitudes, and behavior. Yet the driving forces behind the conflict itself consist of the following factors: absence of cooperation; incompatible position and perception; inability to communicate effectively; and problem of inequality and injustice, which comes to the surface as a social, cultural, and economic problem. This complex of factors fuels collective fear for the future of both groups. The study concludes that traditional village governance mechanisms as a means of conflict resolution have not yet been able to provide an enduring resolution for the conflict. Analysis shows that the practice of traditional village governance is unable to provide satisfactory mechanisms for the conflict as prescribed by conflict resolution theory. Traditional village governance, which is derived from the exclusive Hindu-Balinese culture, is accepted as more legitimate among the Balinese than the official governance policies. However, it is not generally accepted by most of the Muslim migrants. In addition, traditional village governance lacks access to economic instruments, which weakens its capacity to tackle the economic roots of the conflict. Thus the traditional mechanisms of migrant ordinance , as practiced by the traditional village governance have not yet been successful in penetrating all aspects of the conflict. Finally, one of the main challenges for traditional village governance s legal development is the creation of a regional legal system capable of accommodating rapid changes in line with the national and international legal practices. The framing of the new laws should be responsive to the aspirations of a changing society. It should not only protect the various Balinese communities interests, but also that of other ethnic groups, especially those of the minority. In other words, the main challenge to traditional village governance is its ability to develop flexibility and inclusiveness.

Understanding the chemistry of atmospheric aerosol particle formation via observations of physical properties

It is widely accepted that the global climate is heating up due to human activities, such as burning of fossil fuels. Therefore we find ourselves forced to make decisions on what measures, if any, need to be taken to decrease our warming effect on the planet before any irrevocable damage occurs. Research is being conducted in a variety of fields to better understand all relevant processes governing Earth s climate, and to assess the relative roles of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions into the atmosphere. One of the least well quantified problems is the impact of small aerosol particles (both of anthropogenic and biogenic origin) on climate, through reflecting solar radiation and their ability to act as condensation nuclei for cloud droplets. In this thesis, the compounds driving the biogenic formation of new particles in the atmosphere have been examined through detailed measurements. As directly measuring the composition of these newly formed particles is extremely difficult, the approach was to indirectly study their different characteristics by measuring the hygroscopicity (water uptake) and volatility (evaporation) of particles between 10 and 50 nm. To study the first steps of the formation process in the sub-3 nm range, the nucleation of gaseous precursors to small clusters, the chemical composition of ambient naturally charged ions were measured. The ion measurements were performed with a newly developed mass spectrometer, which was first characterized in the laboratory before being deployed at a boreal forest measurement site. It was also successfully compared to similar, low-resolution instruments. The ambient measurements showed that sulfuric acid clusters dominate the negative ion spectrum during new particle formation events. Sulfuric acid/ammonia clusters were detected in ambient air for the first time in this work. Even though sulfuric acid is believed to be the most important gas phase precursor driving the initial cluster formation, measurements of the hygroscopicity and volatility of growing 10-50 nm particles in Hyytiälä showed an increasing role of organic vapors of a variety of oxidation levels. This work has provided additional insights into the compounds participating both in the initial formation and subsequent growth of atmospheric new aerosol particles. It will hopefully prove an important step in understanding atmospheric gas-to-particle conversion, which, by influencing cloud properties, can have important climate impacts. All available knowledge needs to be constantly updated, summarized, and brought to the attention of our decision-makers. Only by increasing our understanding of all the relevant processes can we build reliable models to predict the long-term effects of decisions made today.