Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area

The present study examines empirically the inflation dynamics of the euro area. The focus of the analysis is on the role of expectations in the inflation process. In six articles we relax rationality assumption and proxy expectations directly using OECD forecasts or Consensus Economics survey data. In the first four articles we estimate alternative Phillips curve specifications and find evidence that inflation cannot instantaneously adjust to changes in expectations. A possible departure of expectations from rationality seems not to be powerful enough to totally explain the persistence of euro area inflation in the New Keynesian framework. When expectations are measured directly, the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve is outperformed by the hybrid Phillips curve with an additional lagged inflation term and the New Classical Phillips curve with a lagged expectations term. The results suggest that the euro area inflation process has become more forward-looking in the recent years of low and stable inflation. Moreover, in low inflation countries, the inflation dynamics have been more forward-looking already since the late 1970s. We find evidence of substantial heterogeneity of inflation dynamics across the euro area countries. Real time data analysis suggests that in the euro area real time information matters most in the expectations term in the Phillips curve and that the balance of expectations formation is more forward- than backward-looking. Vector autoregressive (VAR) models of actual inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap are estimated in the last two articles.The VAR analysis indicates that inflation expectations, which are relatively persistent, have a significant effect on output. However,expectations seem to react to changes in both output and actual inflation, especially in the medium term. Overall, this study suggests that expectations play a central role in inflation dynamics, which should be taken into account in conducting monetary policy.

Price Inflation, Unemployment and Devaluations: The Finnish Experience of the 1990s

In this paper I provide some empirical answers to important questions such as the determinants of price inflation and the role of inflation polices. The results indicate that monetary policy is surprisingly impotent as a device for controlling inflation and there is little support that it influences the real variables. The low inflation after the Finnish devaluations in the beginning of 90s is foremost due to a previous imbalance in the labor markets and depressed aggregate demand.

Psychophysiology of flow experience : An explorative study

This study explored the possibilities the psychophysiological methodology offer to flow research. Facial electromyography has often been used to index valence, and electrodermal activity to index arousal, the two basic dimensions of emotion. It was hypothesized that these measures can also be used to examine enjoyment, a basic component of flow experiment. A digital game was used to induce flow, and physiological activity of 32 subjects was measured continuously. Flow State Scale was used to assess flow. Activity of corrugator supercilii muscle, an index of negative valence, was negatively correlated with flow reports, as hypothesized. Contrary to hypothesis, skin conductance level, an index of arousal, was unrelated to self-reported flow. The results for association between flow and zygomaticus major and orbicularis oculi muscle activities, indices of positive valence, were inconclusive, possibly due to experimental design where only tonic measures were available. Psychophysiological methods are recommended for future studies of flow. Specifically, the time series approach may be particularly viable in examining the temporal aspects of flow, an area currently unexplored. Furthermore, it is suggested that digital game research would benefit from psychophysiological study of game-related flow.

Causes and consequences of variation in nestling immune function

Defence against pathogens is a vital need of all living organisms that has led to the evolution of complex immune mechanisms. However, although immunocompetence the ability to resist pathogens and control infection has in recent decades become a focus for research in evolutionary ecology, the variation in immune function observed in natural populations is relatively little understood. This thesis examines sources of this variation (environmental, genetic and maternal effects) during the nestling stage and its fitness consequences in wild populations of passerines: the blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) and the collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis). A developing organism may face a dilemma as to whether to allocate limited resources to growth or to immune defences. The optimal level of investment in immunity is shaped inherently by specific requirements of the environment. If the probability of contracting infection is low, maintaining high growth rates even at the expense of immune function may be advantageous for nestlings, as body mass is usually a good predictor of post-fledging survival. In experiments with blue tits and haematophagous hen fleas (Ceratophyllus gallinae) using two methods, methionine supplementation (to manipulate nestlings resource allocation to cellular immune function) and food supplementation (to increase resource availability), I confirmed that there is a trade-off between growth and immunity and that the abundance of ectoparasites is an environmental factor affecting allocation of resources to immune function. A cross-fostering experiment also revealed that environmental heterogeneity in terms of abundance of ectoparasites may contribute to maintaining additive genetic variation in immunity and other traits. Animal model analysis of extensive data collected from the population of collared flycatchers on Gotland (Sweden) allowed examination of the narrow-sense heritability of PHA-response the most commonly used index of cellular immunocompetence in avian studies. PHA-response is not heritable in this population, but is subject to a non-heritable origin (presumably maternal) effect. However, experimental manipulation of yolk androgen levels indicates that the mechanism of the maternal effect in PHA-response is not in ovo deposition of androgens. The relationship between PHA-response and recruitment was studied for over 1300 collared flycatcher nestlings. Multivariate selection analysis shows that it is body mass, not PHA-response, that is under direct selection. PHA-response appears to be related to recruitment because of its positive relationship with body mass. These results imply that either PHA-response fails to capture the immune mechanisms that are relevant for defence against pathogens encountered by fledglings or that the selection pressure from parasites is not as strong as commonly assumed.

Noninvasive monitoring of activity in Crohn's disease

Background: The fecal neutrophil-derived proteins calprotectin and lactoferrin have proven useful surrogate markers of intestinal inflammation. The aim of this study was to compare fecal calprotectin and lactoferrin concentrations to clinically, endoscopically, and histologically assessed Crohn’s disease (CD) activity, and to explore the suitability of these proteins as surrogate markers of mucosal healing during anti-TNFα therapy. Furthermore, we studied changes in the number and expression of effector and regulatory T cells in bowel biopsy specimens during anti-TNFα therapy. Patients and methods: Adult CD patients referred for ileocolonoscopy (n=106 for 77 patients) for various reasons were recruited (Study I). Clinical disease activity was assessed with the Crohn’s disease activity index (CDAI) and endoscopic activity with both the Crohn’s disease index of severity (CDEIS) and the simple endoscopic score for Crohn’s disease (SES-CD). Stool samples for measurements of calprotectin and lactoferrin, and blood samples for CRP were collected. For Study II, biopsy specimens were obtained from the ileum and the colon for histologic activity scoring. In prospective Study III, after baseline ileocolonoscopy, 15 patients received induction with anti-TNFα blocking agents and endoscopic, histologic, and fecal-marker responses to therapy were evaluated at 12 weeks. For detecting changes in the number and expression of effector and regulatory T cells, biopsy specimens were taken from the most severely diseased lesions in the ileum and the colon (Study IV). Results: Endoscopic scores correlated significantly with fecal calprotectin and lactoferrin (p<0.001). Both fecal markers were significantly lower in patients with endoscopically inactive than with active disease (p<0.001). In detecting endoscopically active disease, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) for calprotectin ≥200 μg/g were 70%, 92%, 94%, and 61%; for lactoferrin ≥10 μg/g they were 66%, 92%, 94%, and 59%. Accordingly, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV for CRP >5 mg/l were 48%, 91%, 91%, and 48%. Fecal markers were significantly higher in active colonic (both p<0.001) or ileocolonic (calprotectin p=0.028, lactoferrin p=0.004) than in ileal disease. In ileocolonic or colonic disease, colon histology score correlated significantly with fecal calprotectin (r=0.563) and lactoferrin (r=0.543). In patients receiving anti-TNFα therapy, median fecal calprotectin decreased from 1173 μg/g (range 88-15326) to 130 μg/g (13-1419) and lactoferrin from 105.0 μg/g (4.2-1258.9) to 2.7 μg/g (0.0-228.5), both p=0.001. The relation of ileal IL-17+ cells to CD4+ cells decreased significantly during anti-TNF treatment (p=0.047). The relation of IL-17+ cells to Foxp3+ cells was higher in the patients’ baseline specimens than in their post-treatment specimens (p=0.038). Conclusions: For evaluation of CD activity, based on endoscopic findings, more sensitive surrogate markers than CDAI and CRP were fecal calprotectin and lactoferrin. Fecal calprotectin and lactoferrin were significantly higher in endoscopically active disease than in endoscopic remission. In both ileocolonic and colonic disease, fecal markers correlated closely with histologic disease activity. In CD, these neutrophil-derived proteins thus seem to be useful surrogate markers of endoscopic activity. During anti-TNFα therapy, fecal calprotectin and lactoferrin decreased significantly. The anti-TNFα treatment was also reflected in a decreased IL-17/Foxp3 cell ratio, which may indicate improved balance between effector and regulatory T cells with treatment.

Impact of hysterectomy or levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system on ovarian function, bone, and sexual functioning in menorrhagic patients

The `VuoKKo` trial consisted of 236 women referred and randomised due to menorrhagia in the five university hospitals of Finland between November 1994 and November 1997. Of these women, 117 were randomised to hysterectomy and 119 to use levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) to treat this complaint. Their follow-up visits took place six and twelve months after the treatment and five years after the randomisation. The first aim in the primary trial was quality-of-life and monetary aspects, and secondly in the present study to compare ovarian function, bone mineral density (BMD) and sexual functioning after these two treatment options. Ovarian function seemed to decrease after hysterectomy, demonstrated by increased hot flashes and serum follicle-stimulating hormone concentrations twelve months after the operation. Such an increase was not seen among LNG-IUS users. The pulsatility index of intraovarian arteries measured by two-dimensional ultrasound decreased in the hysterectomy group, but not in the LNG-IUS group. The decrease in serum inhibin B concentrations was similar in both groups, while ovarian artery circulation remained unchanged. BMD of the women measured by dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) at the lumbar spine and femoral neck at baseline and at five years after treatment showed BMD decrease at the lumbar spine among hysterectomised women, but not among LNG-IUS users. In both groups, BMD at the femoral neck had decreased. Differences between the groups were not, however, significant. Sexual functioning assessed by McCoy s sexual scale showed that sexual satisfaction as well as intercourse frequency had increased and sexual problems decreased among hysterectomised women six months after treatment. Among LNG-IUS users, sexual satisfaction and sexual problems remained unchanged. Although, the two groups did not differ in terms of sexual satisfaction or sexual problems at one-year and five-year follow-ups, LNG-IUS users were less satisfied with their partners than hysterectomised women.

Cardiac function before and after treatment for various types of loading conditions and in myocardial restriction : A prospective study on pediatric patients with two- and three-dimensional echocardiography and measurement of serum natriuretic peptides

Background: The incidence of all forms of congenital heart defects is 0.75%. For patients with congenital heart defects, life-expectancy has improved with new treatment modalities. Structural heart defects may require surgical or catheter treatment which may be corrective or palliative. Even those with corrective therapy need regular follow-up due to residual lesions, late sequelae, and possible complications after interventions. Aims: The aim of this thesis was to evaluate cardiac function before and after treatment for volume overload of the right ventricle (RV) caused by atrial septal defect (ASD), volume overload of the left ventricle (LV) caused by patent ductus arteriosus (PDA), and pressure overload of the LV caused by coarctation of the aorta (CoA), and to evaluate cardiac function in patients with Mulibrey nanism. Methods: In Study I, of the 24 children with ASD, 7 underwent surgical correction and 17 percutaneous occlusion of ASD. Study II had 33 patients with PDA undergoing percutaneous occlusion. In Study III, 28 patients with CoA underwent either surgical correction or percutaneous balloon dilatation of CoA. Study IV comprised 26 children with Mulibrey nanism. A total of 76 healthy voluntary children were examined as a control group. In each study, controls were matched to patients. All patients and controls underwent clinical cardiovascular examinations, two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) echocardiographic examinations, and blood sampling for measurement of natriuretic peptides prior to the intervention and twice or three times thereafter. Control children were examined once by 2D and 3D echocardiography. M-mode echocardiography was performed from the parasternal long axis view directed by 2D echocardiography. The left atrium-to-aorta (LA/Ao) ratio was calculated as an index of LA size. The end-diastolic and end-systolic dimensions of LV as well as the end-diastolic thicknesses of the interventricular septum and LV posterior wall were measured. LV volumes, and the fractional shortening (FS) and ejection fraction (EF) as indices of contractility were then calculated, and the z scores of LV dimensions determined. Diastolic function of LV was estimated from the mitral inflow signal obtained by Doppler echocardiography. In three-dimensional echocardiography, time-volume curves were used to determine end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes, stroke volume, and EF. Diastolic and systolic function of LV was estimated from the calculated first derivatives of these curves. Results: (I): In all children with ASD, during the one-year follow-up, the z score of the RV end-diastolic diameter decreased and that of LV increased. However, dilatation of RV did not resolve entirely during the follow-up in either treatment group. In addition, the size of LV increased more slowly in the surgical subgroup but reached control levels in both groups. Concentrations of natriuretic peptides in patients treated percutaneously increased during the first month after ASD closure and normalized thereafter, but in patients treated surgically, they remained higher than in controls. (II): In the PDA group, at baseline, the end-diastolic diameter of LV measured over 2SD in 5 of 33 patients. The median N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (proBNP) concentration before closure measured 72 ng/l in the control group and 141 ng/l in the PDA group (P = 0.001) and 6 months after closure measured 78.5 ng/l (P = NS). Patients differed from control subjects in indices of LV diastolic and systolic function at baseline, but by the end of follow-up, all these differences had disappeared. Even in the subgroup of patients with normal-sized LV at baseline, the LV end-diastolic volume decreased significantly during follow-up. (III): Before repair, the size and wall thickness of LV were higher in patients with CoA than in controls. Systolic blood pressure measured a median 123 mm Hg in patients before repair (P < 0.001) and 103 mm Hg one year thereafter, and 101 mm Hg in controls. The diameter of the coarctation segment measured a median 3.0 mm at baseline, and 7.9 at the 12-month (P = 0.006) follow-up. Thicknesses of the interventricular septum and posterior wall of the LV decreased after repair but increased to the initial level one year thereafter. The velocity time integrals of mitral inflow increased, but no changes were evident in LV dimensions or contractility. During follow-up, serum levels of natriuretic peptides decreased correlating with diastolic and systolic indices of LV function in 2D and 3D echocardiography. (IV): In 2D echocardiography, the interventricular septum and LV posterior wall were thicker, and velocity time integrals of mitral inflow shorter in patients with Mulibrey nanism than in controls. In 3D echocardiography, LV end-diastolic volume measured a median 51.9 (range 33.3 to 73.4) ml/m² in patients and 59.7 (range 37.6 to 87.6) ml/m² in controls (P = 0.040), and serum levels of ANPN and proBNP a median 0.54 (range 0.04 to 4.7) nmol/l and 289 (range 18 to 9170) ng/l, in patients and 0.28 (range 0.09 to 0.72) nmol/l (P < 0.001) and 54 (range 26 to 139) ng/l (P < 0.001) in controls. They correlated with several indices of diastolic LV function. Conclusions (I): During the one-year follow-up after the ASD closure, RV size decreased but did not normalize in all patients. The size of the LV normalized after ASD closure but the increase in LV size was slower in patients treated surgically than in those treated with the percutaneous technique. Serum levels of ANPN and proBNP were elevated prior to ASD closure but decreased thereafter to control levels in patients treated with the percutaneous technique but not in those treated surgically. (II): Changes in LV volume and function caused by PDA disappeared by 6 months after percutaneous closure. Even the children with normal-sized LV benefited from the procedure. (III): After repair of CoA, the RV size and the velocity time integrals of mitral inflow increased, and serum levels of natriuretic peptides decreased. Patients need close follow-up, despite cessation of LV pressure overload, since LV hypertrophy persisted even in normotensive patients with normal growth of the coarctation segment. (IV): In children with Mulibrey nanism, the LV wall was hypertrophied, with myocardial restriction and impairment of LV function. Significant correlations appeared between indices of LV function, size of the left atrium, and levels of natriuretic peptides, indicating that measurement of serum levels of natriuretic peptides can be used in the clinical follow-up of this patient group despite its dependence on loading conditions.

Gravitino phenomenology and cosmological implications of supergravity

In this thesis we consider the phenomenology of supergravity, and in particular the particle called "gravitino". We begin with an introductory part, where we discuss the theories of inflation, supersymmetry and supergravity. Gravitino production is then investigated into details, by considering the research papers here included. First we study the scattering of massive W bosons in the thermal bath of particles, during the period of reheating. We show that the process generates in the cross section non trivial contributions, which eventually lead to unitarity breaking above a certain scale. This happens because, in the annihilation diagram, the longitudinal degrees of freedom in the propagator of the gauge bosons disappear from the amplitude, by virtue of the supergravity vertex. Accordingly, the longitudinal polarizations of the on-shell W become strongly interacting in the high energy limit. By studying the process with both gauge and mass eigenstates, it is shown that the inclusion of diagrams with off-shell scalars of the MSSM does not cancel the divergences. Next, we approach cosmology more closely, and study the decay of a scalar field S into gravitinos at the end of inflation. Once its mass is comparable to the Hubble rate, the field starts coherent oscillations about the minimum of its potential and decays pertubatively. We embed S in a model of gauge mediation with metastable vacua, where the hidden sector is of the O'Raifeartaigh type. First we discuss the dynamics of the field in the expanding background, then radiative corrections to the scalar potential V(S) and to the Kähler potential are calculated. Constraints on the reheating temperature are accordingly obtained, by demanding that the gravitinos thus produced provide with the observed Dark Matter density. We modify consistently former results in the literature, and find that the gravitino number density and T_R are extremely sensitive to the parameters of the model. This means that it is easy to account for gravitino Dark Matter with an arbitrarily low reheating temperature.

Tuloverotuksen reaalinen muuttuminen Suomessa : Kuusikymmentä vuotta verojen vuoristorataa

The study seeks to find out whether the real burden of the personal taxation has increased or decreased. In order to determine this, we investigate how the same real income has been taxed in different years. Whenever the taxes for the same real income for a given year are higher than for the base year, the real tax burden has increased. If they are lower, the real tax burden has decreased. The study thus seeks to estimate how changes in the tax regulations affect the real tax burden. It should be kept in mind that the progression in the central government income tax schedule ensures that a real change in income will bring about a change in the tax ration. In case of inflation when the tax schedules are kept nominally the same will also increase the real tax burden. In calculations of the study it is assumed that the real income remains constant, so that we can get an unbiased measure of the effects of governmental actions in real terms. The main factors influencing the amount of income taxes an individual must pay are as follows: - Gross income (income subject to central and local government taxes). - Deductions from gross income and taxes calculated according to tax schedules. - The central government income tax schedule (progressive income taxation). - The rates for the local taxes and for social security payments (proportional taxation). In the study we investigate how much a certain group of taxpayers would have paid in taxes according to the actual tax regulations prevailing indifferent years if the income were kept constant in real terms. Other factors affecting tax liability are kept strictly unchanged (as constants). The resulting taxes, expressed in fixed prices, are then compared to the taxes levied in the base year (hypothetical taxation). The question we are addressing is thus how much taxes a certain group of taxpayers with the same socioeconomic characteristics would have paid on the same real income according to the actual tax regulations prevailing in different years. This has been suggested as the main way to measure real changes in taxation, although there are several alternative measures with essentially the same aim. Next an aggregate indicator of changes in income tax rates is constructed. It is designed to show how much the taxation of income has increased or reduced from one year to next year on average. The main question remains: How aggregation over all income levels should be performed? In order to determine the average real changes in the tax scales the difference functions (difference between actual and hypothetical taxation functions) were aggregated using taxable income as weights. Besides the difference functions, the relative changes in real taxes can be used as indicators of change. In this case the ratio between the taxes computed according to the new and the old situation indicates whether the taxation has become heavier or easier. The relative changes in tax scales can be described in a way similar to that used in describing the cost of living, or by means of price indices. For example, we can use Laspeyres´ price index formula for computing the ratio between taxes determined by the new tax scales and the old tax scales. The formula answers the question: How much more or less will be paid in taxes according to the new tax scales than according to the old ones when the real income situation corresponds to the old situation. In real terms the central government tax burden experienced a steady decline from its high post-war level up until the mid-1950s. The real tax burden then drifted upwards until the mid-1970s. The real level of taxation in 1975 was twice that of 1961. In the 1980s there was a steady phase due to the inflation corrections of tax schedules. In 1989 the tax schedule fell drastically and from the mid-1990s tax schedules have decreased the real tax burden significantly. Local tax rates have risen continuously from 10 percent in 1948 to nearly 19 percent in 2008. Deductions have lowered the real tax burden especially in recent years. Aggregate figures indicate how the tax ratio for the same real income has changed over the years according to the prevailing tax regulations. We call the tax ratio calculated in this manner the real income tax ratio. A change in the real income tax ratio depicts an increase or decrease in the real tax burden. The real income tax ratio declined after the war for some years. In the beginning of the 1960s it nearly doubled to mid-1970. From mid-1990s the real income tax ratio has fallen about 35 %.

High-precision diode-laser-based temperature measurement for air refractive index compensation

We present a laser-based system to measure the refractive index of air over a long path length. In optical distance measurements it is essential to know the refractive index of air with high accuracy. Commonly, the refractive index of air is calculated from the properties of the ambient air using either Ciddor or Edlén equations, where the dominant uncertainty component is in most cases the air temperature. The method developed in this work utilises direct absorption spectroscopy of oxygen to measure the average temperature of air and of water vapor to measure relative humidity. The method allows measurement of temperature and humidity over the same beam path as in optical distance measurement, providing spatially well matching data. Indoor and outdoor measurements demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. In particular, we demonstrate an effective compensation of the refractive index of air in an interferometric length measurement at a time-variant and spatially non-homogenous temperature over a long time period. Further, we were able to demonstrate 7 mK RMS noise over a 67 m path length using 120 s sample time. To our knowledge, this is the best temperature precision reported for a spectroscopic temperature measurement.