Habitat use and population dynamics of brown bears (Ursus arctos) in Scandinavia

Large carnivore populations are currently recovering from past extirpation efforts and expanding back into their original habitats. At the same time human activities have resulted in very few wilderness areas left with suitable habitats and size large enough to maintain populations of large carnivores without human contact. Consequently the long-term future of large carnivores depends on their successful integration into landscapes where humans live. Thus, understanding their behaviour and interaction with surrounding habitats is of utmost importance in the development of management strategies for large carnivores. This applies also to brown bears (Ursus arctos) that were almost exterminated from Scandinavia and Finland at the turn of the century, but are now expanding their range with the current population estimates being approximately 2600 bears in Scandinavia and 840 in Finland. This thesis focuses on the large-scale habitat use and population dynamics of brown bears in Scandinavia with the objective to develop modelling approaches that support the management of bear populations. Habitat analysis shows that bear home ranges occur mainly in forested areas with a low level of human influence relative to surrounding areas. Habitat modelling based on these findings allows identification and quantification of the potentially suitable areas for bears in Scandinavia. Additionally, this thesis presents novel improvements to home range estimation that enable realistic estimates of the effective area required for the bears to establish a home range. This is achieved through fitting to the radio-tracking data to establish the amount of temporal autocorrelation and the proportion of time spent in different habitat types. Together these form a basis for the landscape-level management of the expanding population. Successful management of bears requires also assessment of the consequences of harvest on the population viability. An individual-based simulation model, accounting for the sexually selected infanticide, was used to investigate the possibility of increasing the harvest using different hunting strategies, such as trophy harvest of males. The results indicated that the population can sustain twice the current harvest rate. However, harvest should be changed gradually while carefully monitoring the population growth as some effects of increased harvest may manifest themselves only after a time-delay. The results and methodological improvements in this thesis can be applied to the Finnish bear population and to other large carnivores. They provide grounds for the further development of spatially-realistic management-oriented models of brow bear dynamics that can make projections of the future distribution of bears while accounting for the development of human activities.

Light scattering in random media with wavelength-scale structures : astronomical and industrial applications

Light scattering, or scattering and absorption of electromagnetic waves, is an important tool in all remote-sensing observations. In astronomy, the light scattered or absorbed by a distant object can be the only source of information. In Solar-system studies, the light-scattering methods are employed when interpreting observations of atmosphereless bodies such as asteroids, atmospheres of planets, and cometary or interplanetary dust. Our Earth is constantly monitored from artificial satellites at different wavelengths. With remote sensing of Earth the light-scattering methods are not the only source of information: there is always the possibility to make in situ measurements. The satellite-based remote sensing is, however, superior in the sense of speed and coverage if only the scattered signal can be reliably interpreted. The optical properties of many industrial products play a key role in their quality. Especially for products such as paint and paper, the ability to obscure the background and to reflect light is of utmost importance. High-grade papers are evaluated based on their brightness, opacity, color, and gloss. In product development, there is a need for computer-based simulation methods that could predict the optical properties and, therefore, could be used in optimizing the quality while reducing the material costs. With paper, for instance, pilot experiments with an actual paper machine can be very time- and resource-consuming. The light-scattering methods presented in this thesis solve rigorously the interaction of light and material with wavelength-scale structures. These methods are computationally demanding, thus the speed and accuracy of the methods play a key role. Different implementations of the discrete-dipole approximation are compared in the thesis and the results provide practical guidelines in choosing a suitable code. In addition, a novel method is presented for the numerical computations of orientation-averaged light-scattering properties of a particle, and the method is compared against existing techniques. Simulation of light scattering for various targets and the possible problems arising from the finite size of the model target are discussed in the thesis. Scattering by single particles and small clusters is considered, as well as scattering in particulate media, and scattering in continuous media with porosity or surface roughness. Various techniques for modeling the scattering media are presented and the results are applied to optimizing the structure of paper. However, the same methods can be applied in light-scattering studies of Solar-system regoliths or cometary dust, or in any remote-sensing problem involving light scattering in random media with wavelength-scale structures.

Silvicultural decisions based on simulation-optimization systems

Forest management is facing new challenges under climate change. By adjusting thinning regimes, conventional forest management can be adapted to various objectives of utilization of forest resources, such as wood quality, forest bioenergy, and carbon sequestration. This thesis aims to develop and apply a simulation-optimization system as a tool for an interdisciplinary understanding of the interactions between wood science, forest ecology, and forest economics. In this thesis, the OptiFor software was developed for forest resources management. The OptiFor simulation-optimization system integrated the process-based growth model PipeQual, wood quality models, biomass production and carbon emission models, as well as energy wood and commercial logging models into a single optimization model. Osyczka s direct and random search algorithm was employed to identify optimal values for a set of decision variables. The numerical studies in this thesis broadened our current knowledge and understanding of the relationships between wood science, forest ecology, and forest economics. The results for timber production show that optimal thinning regimes depend on site quality and initial stand characteristics. Taking wood properties into account, our results show that increasing the intensity of thinning resulted in lower wood density and shorter fibers. The addition of nutrients accelerated volume growth, but lowered wood quality for Norway spruce. Integrating energy wood harvesting into conventional forest management showed that conventional forest management without energy wood harvesting was still superior in sparse stands of Scots pine. Energy wood from pre-commercial thinning turned out to be optimal for dense stands. When carbon balance is taken into account, our results show that changing carbon assessment methods leads to very different optimal thinning regimes and average carbon stocks. Raising the carbon price resulted in longer rotations and a higher mean annual increment, as well as a significantly higher average carbon stock over the rotation.

Nitrogen dynamics of organic farming in a crop rotation based on red clover (Trifolium pratense) leys

In agricultural systems which rely on organic sources of nitrogen (N), of which the primary source is biological N fixation (BNF), it is extremely important to use N as efficiently as possible with minimal losses to the environment. The amount of N through BNF should be maximised and the availability of the residual N after legumes should be synchronised to the subsequent plant needs in the crop rotation. Six field experiments in three locations in Finland were conducted in 1994-2006 to determine the productivity and amount of BNF in red clover-grass leys of different ages. The residual effects of the leys for subsequent cereals as well as the N leaching risk were studied by field measurements and by simulation using the CoupModel. N use efficiency (NUE) and N balances were also calculated. The yields of red clover-grass leys were highest in the two-year-old leys (6 700 kg ha-1) under study, but the differences between 2- and 3-year old leys were not high in most cases. BNF (90 kg ha-1 in harvested biomass) correlated strongly with red clover dry matter yield, as the proportion of red clover N derived from the atmosphere (> 85%) was high in our conditions of organically farmed field with low soil mineral N. A red clover content of over 40% in dry matter is targeted to avoid negative N-balances and to gain N for the subsequent crop. Surprisingly, the leys had no significant effect on the yields and N uptake of the two subsequent cereals (winter rye or spring wheat, followed by spring oats). On the other hand, yield and C:N of leys, as well as BNF-N and total-N incorporated into the soil influenced on subsequent cereal yields. NUE of cereals from incorporated ley crop residues was rather high, varying from 30% to 80% (mean 48%). The mineral N content of soil in the profile of 0-90 cm was low, mainly 15-30 kg ha-1. Simulation of N dynamics by CoupModel functioned satisfactorily and is considered a useful tool to estimate N flows in cropping systems relying on organic N sources. Understanding the long-term influence of cultivation history and soil properties on N dynamics remains to be a challenge to further research.

Essays on the Bioeconomics of the Northern Baltic Fisheries

World marine fisheries suffer from economic and biological overfishing: too many vessels are harvesting too few fish stocks. Fisheries economics has explained the causes of overfishing and provided a theoretical background for management systems capable of solving the problem. Yet only a few examples of fisheries managed by the principles of the bioeconomic theory exist. With the aim of bridging the gap between the actual fish stock assessment models used to provide management advice and economic optimisation models, the thesis explores economically sound harvesting from national and international perspectives. Using data calibrated for the Baltic salmon and herring stocks, optimal harvesting policies are outlined using numerical methods. First, the thesis focuses on the socially optimal harvest of a single salmon stock by commercial and recreational fisheries. The results obtained using dynamic programming show that the optimal fishery configuration would be to close down three out of the five studied fisheries. The result is robust to stock size fluctuations. Compared to a base case situation, the optimal fleet structure would yield a slight decrease in the commercial catch, but a recreational catch that is nearly seven times higher. As a result, the expected economic net benefits from the fishery would increase nearly 60%, and the expected number of juvenile salmon (smolt) would increase by 30%. Second, the thesis explores the management of multiple salmon stocks in an international framework. Non-cooperative and cooperative game theory are used to demonstrate different "what if" scenarios. The results of the four player game suggest that, despite the commonly agreed fishing quota, the behaviour of the countries has been closer to non-cooperation than cooperation. Cooperation would more than double the net benefits from the fishery compared to a past fisheries policy. Side payments, however, are a prerequisite for a cooperative solution. Third, the thesis applies coalitional games in the partition function form to study whether the cooperative solution would be stable despite the potential presence of positive externalities. The results show that the cooperation of two out of four studied countries can be stable. Compared to a past fisheries policy, a stable coalition structure would provide substantial economic benefits. Nevertheless, the status of the salmon stocks would not improve significantly. Fourth, the thesis studies the prerequisites for and potential consequences of the implementation of an individual transferable quota (ITQ) system in the Finnish herring fishery. Simulation results suggest that ITQs would result in a decrease in the number of fishing vessels, but enables positive profits to overlap with a higher stock size. The empirical findings of the thesis affirm that the profitability of the studied fisheries could be improved. The evidence, however, indicates that incentives for free riding exist, and thus the most preferable outcome both in economic and biological terms is elusive.

Bayesian fisheries stock assessment: integrating and updating knowledge

In this thesis the use of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference in fisheries stock assessment is studied. The work was conducted in collaboration of the Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute by using the problem of monitoring and prediction of the juvenile salmon population in the River Tornionjoki as an example application. The River Tornionjoki is the largest salmon river flowing into the Baltic Sea. This thesis tackles the issues of model formulation and model checking as well as computational problems related to Bayesian modelling in the context of fisheries stock assessment. Each article of the thesis provides a novel method either for extracting information from data obtained via a particular type of sampling system or for integrating the information about the fish stock from multiple sources in terms of a population dynamics model. Mark-recapture and removal sampling schemes and a random catch sampling method are covered for the estimation of the population size. In addition, a method for estimating the stock composition of a salmon catch based on DNA samples is also presented. For most of the articles, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been used as a tool to approximate the posterior distribution. Problems arising from the sampling method are also briefly discussed and potential solutions for these problems are proposed. Special emphasis in the discussion is given to the philosophical foundation of the Bayesian approach in the context of fisheries stock assessment. It is argued that the role of subjective prior knowledge needed in practically all parts of a Bayesian model should be recognized and consequently fully utilised in the process of model formulation.

Dynamics of Finnish starlings in 1951-2005 : from monitoring to population modelling

Farmland bird species have been declining in Europe. Many declines have coincided with general intensification of farming practices. In Finland, replacement of mixed farming, including rotational pastures, with specialized cultivation has been one of the most drastic changes from the 1960s to the 1990s. This kind of habitat deterioration limits the persistence of populations, as has been previously indicated from local populations. Integrated population monitoring, which gathers species-specific information of population size and demography, can be used to assess the response of a population to environment changes also at a large spatial scale. I targeted my analysis at the Finnish starling (Sturnus vulgaris). Starlings are common breeders in farmland habitats, but severe declines of local populations have been reported from Finland in the 1970s and 1980s and later from other parts of Europe. Habitat deterioration (replacement of pasture and grassland habitats with specialized cultivation areas) limits reproductive success of the species. I analysed regional population data in order to exemplify the importance of agricultural change to bird population dynamics. I used nestling ringing and nest-card data from 1951 to 2005 in order to quantify population trends and per capita reproductive success within several geographical regions (south/north and west/east aspects). I used matrix modelling, acknowledging age-specific survival and fecundity parameters and density-dependence, to model population dynamics. Finnish starlings declined by 80% from the end of the 1960s up to the end of the 1980s. The observed patterns and the model indicated that the population decline was due to the decline of the carrying capacity of farmland habitats. The decline was most severe in north Finland where populations largely become extinct. However, habitat deterioration was most severe in the southern breeding areas. The deteriorations in habitat quality decreased reproduction, which finally caused the decline. I suggest that poorly-productive northern populations have been partly maintained by immigration from the highly-productive southern populations. As the southern populations declined, ceasing emigration caused the population extinction in north. This phenomenon was explained with source sink population dynamics, which I structured and verified on the basis of a spatially explicit simulation model. I found that southern Finnish starling population exhibits ten-year cyclic regularity, a phenomenon that can be explained with delayed density-dependence in reproduction.

Computer simulation of H and He effects in fusion reactor materials

Fusion power is an appealing source of clean and abundant energy. The radiation resistance of reactor materials is one of the greatest obstacles on the path towards commercial fusion power. These materials are subject to a harsh radiation environment, and cannot fail mechanically or contaminate the fusion plasma. Moreover, for a power plant to be economically viable, the reactor materials must withstand long operation times, with little maintenance. The fusion reactor materials will contain hydrogen and helium, due to deposition from the plasma and nuclear reactions because of energetic neutron irradiation. The first wall divertor materials, carbon and tungsten in existing and planned test reactors, will be subject to intense bombardment of low energy deuterium and helium, which erodes and modifies the surface. All reactor materials, including the structural steel, will suffer irradiation of high energy neutrons, causing displacement cascade damage. Molecular dynamics simulation is a valuable tool for studying irradiation phenomena, such as surface bombardment and the onset of primary damage due to displacement cascades. The governing mechanisms are on the atomic level, and hence not easily studied experimentally. In order to model materials, interatomic potentials are needed to describe the interaction between the atoms. In this thesis, new interatomic potentials were developed for the tungsten-carbon-hydrogen system and for iron-helium and chromium-helium. Thus, the study of previously inaccessible systems was made possible, in particular the effect of H and He on radiation damage. The potentials were based on experimental and ab initio data from the literature, as well as density-functional theory calculations performed in this work. As a model for ferritic steel, iron-chromium with 10% Cr was studied. The difference between Fe and FeCr was shown to be negligible for threshold displacement energies. The properties of small He and He-vacancy clusters in Fe and FeCr were also investigated. The clusters were found to be more mobile and dissociate more rapidly than previously assumed, and the effect of Cr was small. The primary damage formed by displacement cascades was found to be heavily influenced by the presence of He, both in FeCr and W. Many important issues with fusion reactor materials remain poorly understood, and will require a huge effort by the international community. The development of potential models for new materials and the simulations performed in this thesis reveal many interesting features, but also serve as a platform for further studies.

Trust and Collectives

"Trust and Collectives" is a compilation of articles: (I) "On Rational Trust" (in Meggle, G. (ed.) Social Facts & Collective Intentionality, Dr. Hänsel-Hohenhausen AG (currently Ontos), 2002), (II) "Simulating Rational Social Normative Trust, Predictive Trust, and Predictive Reliance Between Agents" (M.Tuomela and S. Hofmann, Ethics and Information Technology 5, 2003), (III) "A Collective's Trust in a Collective's action" (Protosociology, 18-19, 2003), and (IV) "Cooperation and Trust in Group Contexts" (R. Tuomela and M.Tuomela, Mind and Society 4/1, 2005 ). The articles are tied together by an introduction that dwells deeply on the topic of trust. (I) presents a somewhat general version of (RSNTR) and some basic arguments. (II) offers an application of (RSNTR) for a computer simulation of trust.(III) applies (RSNTR) to Raimo Tuomela's "we-mode"collectives (i.e. The Philosophy of Social Practices, Cambridge University Press, 2002). (IV) analyzes cooperation and trust in the context of acting as a member of a collective. Thus, (IV) elaborates on the topic of collective agency in (III) and puts the trust account (RSNTR) to work in a framework of cooperation. The central aim of this work is to construct a well-argued conceptual and theoretical account of rational trust, viz. a person's subjectively rational trust in another person vis-à-vis his performance of an action, seen from a first-person point of view. The main method is conceptual and theoretical analysis understood along the lines of reflective equilibrium. The account of rational social normative trust (RSNTR), which is argued and defended against other views, is the result of the quest. The introduction stands on its own legs as an argued presentation of an analysis of the concept of rational trust and an analysis of trust itself (RSNTR). It is claimed that (RSNTR) is "genuine" trust and embedded in a relationship of mutual respect for the rights of the other party. This relationship is the growing site for trust, a causal and conceptual ground, but it is not taken as a reason for trusting (viz. predictive "trust"). Relevant themes such as risk, decision, rationality, control, and cooperation are discussed and the topics of the articles are briefly presented. In this work it is argued that genuine trust is to be kept apart from predictive "trust." When we trust a person vis-à-vis his future action that concerns ourselves on the basis of his personal traits and/or features of the specific situation we have a prediction-like attitude. Genuine trust develops in a relationship of mutual respect for the mutual rights of the other party. Such a relationship is formed through interaction where the parties gradually find harmony concerning "the rules of the game." The trust account stands as a contribution to philosophical research on central social notions and it could be used as a theoretical model in social psychology, economical and political science where interaction between persons and groups are in focus. The analysis could also serve as a model for a trust component in computer simulation of human action. In the context of everyday life the account clarifies the difference between predictive "trust" and genuine trust. There are no fast shortcuts to trust. Experiences of mutual respect for mutual rights cannot be had unless there is respect.

Simulation and graph mining tools for improving gene mapping efficiency

Gene mapping is a systematic search for genes that affect observable characteristics of an organism. In this thesis we offer computational tools to improve the efficiency of (disease) gene-mapping efforts. In the first part of the thesis we propose an efficient simulation procedure for generating realistic genetical data from isolated populations. Simulated data is useful for evaluating hypothesised gene-mapping study designs and computational analysis tools. As an example of such evaluation, we demonstrate how a population-based study design can be a powerful alternative to traditional family-based designs in association-based gene-mapping projects. In the second part of the thesis we consider a prioritisation of a (typically large) set of putative disease-associated genes acquired from an initial gene-mapping analysis. Prioritisation is necessary to be able to focus on the most promising candidates. We show how to harness the current biomedical knowledge for the prioritisation task by integrating various publicly available biological databases into a weighted biological graph. We then demonstrate how to find and evaluate connections between entities, such as genes and diseases, from this unified schema by graph mining techniques. Finally, in the last part of the thesis, we define the concept of reliable subgraph and the corresponding subgraph extraction problem. Reliable subgraphs concisely describe strong and independent connections between two given vertices in a random graph, and hence they are especially useful for visualising such connections. We propose novel algorithms for extracting reliable subgraphs from large random graphs. The efficiency and scalability of the proposed graph mining methods are backed by extensive experiments on real data. While our application focus is in genetics, the concepts and algorithms can be applied to other domains as well. We demonstrate this generality by considering coauthor graphs in addition to biological graphs in the experiments.

Towards Understanding Powder Behavior Via Simulation

The aim of this study was to investigate powder and tablet behavior at the level of mechanical interactions between single particles. Various aspects of powder packing, mixing, compression, and bond formation were examined with the aid of computer simulations. The packing and mixing simulations were based on spring forces interacting between particles. Packing and breakage simulations included systems in which permanent bonds were formed and broken between particles, based on their interaction strengths. During the process, a new simulation environment based on Newtonian mechanics and elementary interactions between the particles was created, and a new method for evaluating mixing was developed. Powder behavior is a complicated process, and many of its aspects are still unclear. Powders as a whole exhibit some aspects of solids and others of liquids. Therefore, their physics is far from clear. However, using relatively simple models based on particle-particle interaction, many powder properties could be replicated during this work. Simulated packing densities were similar to values reported in the literature. The method developed for describing powder mixing correlated well with previous methods. The new method can be applied to determine mixing in completely homogeneous materials, without dividing them into different components. As such, it can describe the efficiency of the mixing method, regardless of the powder's initial setup. The mixing efficiency at different vibrations was examined, and we found that certain combinations of amplitude, direction, and frequencies resulted in better mixing while using less energy. Simulations using exponential force potentials between particles were able to explain the elementary compression behavior of tablets, and create force distributions that were similar to the pressure distributions reported in the literature. Tablet-breaking simulations resulted in breaking strengths that were similar to measured tablet breaking strengths. In general, many aspects of powder behavior can be explained with mechanical interactions at the particle level, and single particle properties can be reliably linked to powder behavior with accurate simulations.

Computer simulation of multi-elemental fusion reactor materials

Thermonuclear fusion is a sustainable energy solution, in which energy is produced using similar processes as in the sun. In this technology hydrogen isotopes are fused to gain energy and consequently to produce electricity. In a fusion reactor hydrogen isotopes are confined by magnetic fields as ionized gas, the plasma. Since the core plasma is millions of degrees hot, there are special needs for the plasma-facing materials. Moreover, in the plasma the fusion of hydrogen isotopes leads to the production of high energetic neutrons which sets demanding abilities for the structural materials of the reactor. This thesis investigates the irradiation response of materials to be used in future fusion reactors. Interactions of the plasma with the reactor wall leads to the removal of surface atoms, migration of them, and formation of co-deposited layers such as tungsten carbide. Sputtering of tungsten carbide and deuterium trapping in tungsten carbide was investigated in this thesis. As the second topic the primary interaction of the neutrons in the structural material steel was examined. As model materials for steel iron chromium and iron nickel were used. This study was performed theoretically by the means of computer simulations on the atomic level. In contrast to previous studies in the field, in which simulations were limited to pure elements, in this work more complex materials were used, i.e. they were multi-elemental including two or more atom species. The results of this thesis are in the microscale. One of the results is a catalogue of atom species, which were removed from tungsten carbide by the plasma. Another result is e.g. the atomic distributions of defects in iron chromium caused by the energetic neutrons. These microscopic results are used in data bases for multiscale modelling of fusion reactor materials, which has the aim to explain the macroscopic degradation in the materials. This thesis is therefore a relevant contribution to investigate the connection of microscopic and macroscopic radiation effects, which is one objective in fusion reactor materials research.