Essays on Earnings Management (summary section only)

There is much literature developing theories when and where earnings management occurs. Among the several possible motives driving earnings management behaviour in firms, this thesis focuses on motives that aim to influence the valuation of the firm. Earnings management that makes the firm look better than it really is may result in disappointment for the single investor and potentially leads to a welfare loss in society when the resource allocation is distorted. A more specific knowledge of the occurrence of earnings management supposedly increases the awareness of the investor and thus leads to better investments and increased welfare. This thesis contributes to the literature by increasing the knowledge as to where and when earnings management is likely to occur. More specifically, essay 1 adds to existing research connecting earnings management to IPOs and increases the knowledge in arguing that the tendency to manage earnings differs between the IPOs. Evidence is found that entrepreneur owned IPOs are more likely to be earnings managers than the institutionally owned ones. Essay 2 considers the reliability of quarterly earnings reports that precedes insider selling binges. The essay contributes by suggesting that earnings management is likely to occur before high insider selling. Essay 3 examines the widely studied phenomenon of income smoothing and investigates if income smoothing can be explained with proxies for information asymmetry. The essay argues that smoothing is more pervasive in private and smaller firms.

Sensemaking in the Third Space - Essays on French-Finnish Bicultural Experiences in Organizations and Their Narratives (summary section only)

Research on cross-cultural and intercultural aspects in organizations has been traditionally conducted from an objectivist, functionalist perspective, with culture treated as an independent variable, and often the key explanatory factor. In order to do justice to the ontological relativity of the phenomena studied, more subjectivist research on intercultural interactions, and especially on their relationships with the dynamics of cultural identity construction, is needed. The present research seeks to address this gap by focusing on bicultural interactions in organizations, as they are experienced by the involved individuals. It is argued that such bicultural situations see the emergence of a space of hybridity, which is here called a ‘third space’, and which can be understood as providing ‘occasions for sensemaking’: it is this individual sensemaking that is of particular interest in the empirical narrative study. A first overall aim of the study is to reach an understanding of the dynamics of bicultural interactions in organizations; an understanding not only of the potential for learning and emancipatory sensemaking, but also of the possibility of conflict and alienatory ordering (this is mainly addressed in the theoretical essays 1 and 2). Further, a second overall aim of the study is to analyze the reflexive identity construction of four young French expatriates involved in such bicultural interactions in organizations in Finland, in order to examine the extent to which their expatriation experiences have allowed for an emancipatory opportunity in their cases (in essays 3 and 4). The primary theoretical contribution in this study lies in its new articulation of the dynamics of bicultural interactions in organizations. The ways in which the empirical material is analyzed bring about methodological contributions: since the expatriates’ accounts are bound to be some kind of construction, the analysis is made from angles that point to how the self-narratives construct reality. There are two such angles here: a ‘performative’ one and a ‘spatial’ one. The most important empirical contributions lie in the analysis of, on the one hand, the alternative uses that the young expatriates made of the notion of ‘national culture’ in their self-narratives, and, on the other hand, their ‘narrative practices of the third space’: their politics of escape or stabilization, their exploration of space or search for place, their emancipation from their origin or return to home as only horizon.

Medicalising Prohibition : Harm reduction in Finnish and International Drug Policy

The increase in drug use and related harms in the late 1990s in Finland has come to be referred to as the second drug wave. In addition to using criminal justice as a basis of drug policy, new kinds of drug regulation were introduced. Some of the new regulation strategies were referred to as "harm reduction". The most widely known practices of harm reduction include needle and syringe exchange programmes for intravenous drug users and medicinal substitution and maintenance treatment programmes for opiate users. The purpose of the study is to examine the change of drug policy in Finland and particularly the political struggle surrounding harm reduction in the context of this change. The aim is, first, to analyse the content of harm reduction policy and the dynamics of its emergence and, second, to assess to what extent harm reduction undermines or threatens traditional drug policy. The concept of harm reduction is typically associated with a drug policy strategy that employs the public health approach and where the principal focus of regulation is on drug-related health harms and risks. On the other hand, harm reduction policy has also been given other interpretations, relating, in particular, to human rights and social equality. In Finland, harm reduction can also be seen to have its roots in criminal policy. The general conclusion of the study is that rather than posing a threat to a prohibitionist drug policy, harm reduction has come to form part of it. The implementation of harm reduction by setting up health counselling centres for drug users with the main focus on needle exchange and by extending substitution treatment has implied the creation of specialised services based on medical expertise and an increasing involvement of the medical profession in addressing drug problems. At the same time the criminal justice control of drug use has been intensified. Accordingly, harm reduction has not entailed a shift to a more liberal drug policy nor has it undermined the traditional policy with its emphasis on total drug prohibition. Instead, harm reduction in combination with a prohibitionist penal policy constitutes a new dual-track drug policy paradigm. The study draws on the constructionist tradition of research on social problems and movements, where the analysis centres on claims made about social problems, claim-makers, ways of making claims and related social mobilisation. The research material mainly consists of administrative documents and interviews with key stakeholders. The doctoral study consists of five original articles and a summary article. The first article gives an overview of the strained process of change of drug policy and policy trends around the turn of the millennium. The second article focuses on the concept of harm reduction and the international organisations and groupings involved in defining it. The third article describes the process that in 1996 97 led to the creation of the first Finnish national drug policy strategy by reconciling mutually contradictory views of addressing the drug problem, at the same as the way was paved for harm reduction measures. The fourth article seeks to explain the relatively rapid diffusion of needle exchange programmes after 1996. The fifth article assesses substitution treatment as a harm reduction measure from the viewpoint of the associations of opioid users and their family members.

Kriminaalipolitiikan paradoksi : Tutkimuksia huumausainerikollisuudesta ja sen kontrollista Suomessa

This doctoral thesis explores the development of drug markets and drug related crime in Finland since the mid 1990s, as well as public control measures aimed at solving problems related to drug crime. The research further examines the criminal career of persons having committed drug crime, as well as their socio-economic background. The period since the mid 1990s is, on the one hand, characterized by increasing use of drugs and increasingly severe drug problems. On the other hand, this period is also characterized by intensified drug control. Also criminality associated with drugs has increased and become more severe. During this period the prevention of drug problems became a focal issue for authorities, and resources were increased for activities geared towards fighting drugs. Along with this development, Finnish drug policy has been balancing between therapeutic activities and control. A focal point in this thesis is the question how society addresses drug problems, as well as how this differs from efforts to solve other problems. Why are criminal means so readily used when dealing with drug problems; why have the police received an extended mandate to use coercive force; and why has the field for imposing administrative sanctions been extended? How has the extension of drug control affected general thinking in criminal policy? The subject matter in this thesis is approached in a criminological and criminal policy perspective. The thesis is made up of four research articles and a Summary Article. In the Summary Article the studies were placed into the Finnish research context of drug criminality and drug control as well as criminal policy. Furthermore, the author has assessed his own research location as a drug control researcher. Applying the notion of risk, an analysis was made of threats posed by drugs to society. Theoretical perspectives were also brought to the fore on how society may regulate drug problems and threats associated with them. Based on research literature and administrative documents, an analysis was made of the relation between drug related social and health policy and criminal justice control. An account was also made of the development of drug control in Finland since the mid 1990s. There has been a strong increase in control by the criminal justice system since the mid 1990s. Penalties have been made more stringent, more efficient means have been developed to trace the financial gain from the offence, opportunities for money laundering have been prevented and the police has obtained ample new powers of inquiry. New administrative measures have been directed towards drug users, such as introducing drug tests in working life, checking the applicants criminal record for certain jobs, as well as the threat of losing one s driving licence in cases where a physician has established drug addiction. In the 1990s the prevention of drug crimes and their disclosure were made part of the police s control activities nationwide. This could clearly be seen in increased criminal statistics. There are humiliating elements associated with the police s drug control that should be eliminated for the benefit of everybody. Furthermore, the criminal control is directed towards persons in a weak socio-economic position. A drug verdict may set off a marginalization process that may be very difficult to halt. Drug control is selective and generates repressive practises. The special status accorded drug problems is also revealed in the way in which the treatment of drug addicts has developed.

Beyond Words : The European Court of Justice and Legal Certainty in Multilingual EU Law

This study addresses the issue of multilingualism in EU law. More specifically, it explores the implications of multilingualism for conceptualising legal certainty, a central principle of law both in domestic and EU legal systems. The main question addressed is how multilingualism and legal certainty may be reconciled in the EU legal system. The study begins with a discussion on the role of translation in drafting EU legislation and its implications for interpreting EU law at the European Court of Justice (ECJ). Uncertainty regarding the meaning of multilingual EU law and the interrelationship between multilingualism and ECJ methods of interpretation are explored. This analysis leads to questioning the importance of linguistic-semantic methods of interpretation, especially the role of comparing language versions for clarifying meaning and the ordinary meaning thesis, and to placing emphasis on other, especially the teleological, purpose-oriented method of interpretation. As regards the principle of legal certainty, the starting-point is a two-dimensional concept consisting of both formal and substantive elements; of predictability and acceptability. Formal legal certainty implies that laws and adjudication, in particular, must be predictable. Substantive legal certainty is related to rational acceptability of judicial decision-making placing emphasis on its acceptability to the legal community in question. Contrary to predictability that one might intuitively relate to linguistic-semantic methods of interpretation, the study suggests a new conception of legal certainty where purpose, telos, and other dynamic methods of interpretation are of particular significance for meaning construction in multilingual EU law. Accordingly, the importance of purposive, teleological interpretation as the standard doctrine of interpretation in a multilingual legal system is highlighted. The focus on rational, substantive acceptability results in emphasising discourse among legal actors among the EU legal community and stressing the need to give reasons in favour of proposed meaning in accordance with dynamic methods of interpretation including considerations related to purposes, aims, objectives and consequences. In this context, the role of ideal discourse situations and communicative action taking the form of interaction among the EU legal community in an ongoing dialogue especially in the preliminary ruling procedure is brought into focus. In order for this dialogue to function, it requires that the ECJ gives persuasive, convincing and acceptable reasons in justifying its decisions. This necessitates transparency, sincerity, and dialogue with the relevant audience.

Rough Justice or Zero Tolerance? - Reassessing the Nature of Copyright in Light of Collective Licensing (Part I)

Starting point in the European individualistic copyright ideology is that an individual author creates a work and controls the use of it. However, this paper argues that it is (and has always been) impossible to control the use of works after their publication. This has also been acknowledged by the legislator, who has introduced collective licensing agreements because of this impossibility. Since it is impossible to rigorously control the use of works this writing "Rough Justice or Zero Tolerance - Reassessing the Nature of Copyright in Light of Collective Licensing" examines what reality of copyright is actually about. Finding alternative (and hopefully more "true") ways to understand copyright helps us to create alternative solutions in order to solve possible problems we have as it comes e.g. to use of content in online environment. The paper makes a claim that copyright is actually about defining negotiation points for different stakeholders and that nothing in the copyright reality prevents us from defining e.g. a new negotiation point where representatives of consumers would meet representatives of right holders in order to agree on the terms of use for certain content types in online environment.

Conflits de norms de justice distributive dans les fusions entre égaux Le cas de BioM.rieux-Pierre Fabre

Les strictes fusions entre égaux constituent un phénomène très rare. Pourtant, de nombreux dirigeants communiquent sur l’aspect égalitaire des fusions et acquisitions qu’ils conçoivent. Dans cet article, les auteurs expliquent pourquoi les dirigeants <> leurs F&A en <> ; montrent en quoi le postulat égalitaire initial accroît la probabilité de conflits entre deux normes de justice distributive pourtant compl.mentaires : l’égalité et l’équité ; et illustrent leurs propos avec un cas spectaculaire : la fusion égalitaire, puis la separation des entreprises BioMérieux et Pierre Fabre. Paradoxalement, la simple formulation en termes égalitaire des F&A favorise la diffusion de sentiments d’injustice distributive, qui nuit in fine à la performance de l’opération.

A Cointegration Approach to Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (summary section only)

Mikael Juselius’ doctoral dissertation covers a range of significant issues in modern macroeconomics by empirically testing a number of important theoretical hypotheses. The first essay presents indirect evidence within the framework of the cointegrated VAR model on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor by using Finnish manufacturing data. Instead of estimating the elasticity of substitution by using the first order conditions, he develops a new approach that utilizes a CES production function in a model with a 3-stage decision process: investment in the long run, wage bargaining in the medium run and price and employment decisions in the short run. He estimates the elasticity of substitution to be below one. The second essay tests the restrictions implied by the core equations of the New Keynesian Model (NKM) in a vector autoregressive model (VAR) by using both Euro area and U.S. data. Both the new Keynesian Phillips curve and the aggregate demand curve are estimated and tested. The restrictions implied by the core equations of the NKM are rejected on both U.S. and Euro area data. These results are important for further research. The third essay is methodologically similar to essay 2, but it concentrates on Finnish macro data by adopting a theoretical framework of an open economy. Juselius’ results suggests that the open economy NKM framework is too stylized to provide an adequate explanation for Finnish inflation. The final essay provides a macroeconometric model of Finnish inflation and associated explanatory variables and it estimates the relative importance of different inflation theories. His main finding is that Finnish inflation is primarily determined by excess demand in the product market and by changes in the long-term interest rate. This study is part of the research agenda carried out by the Research Unit of Economic Structure and Growth (RUESG). The aim of RUESG it to conduct theoretical and empirical research with respect to important issues in industrial economics, real option theory, game theory, organization theory, theory of financial systems as well as to study problems in labor markets, macroeconomics, natural resources, taxation and time series econometrics. RUESG was established at the beginning of 1995 and is one of the National Centers of Excellence in research selected by the Academy of Finland. It is financed jointly by the Academy of Finland, the University of Helsinki, the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, Bank of Finland and the Nokia Group. This support is gratefully acknowledged.

Empirical Studies on Labor Market Matching (summary section only)

This thesis analyzes how matching takes place at the Finnish labor market from three different angles. The Finnish labor market has undergone severe structural changes following the economic crisis in the early 1990s. The labor market has had problems adjusting from these changes and hence a high and persistent unemployment has followed. In this thesis I analyze if matching problems, and in particular if changes in matching, can explain some of this persistence. The thesis consists of three essays. In the first essay Finnish Evidence of Changes in the Labor Market Matching Process the matching process at the Finnish labor market is analyzed. The key finding is that the matching process has changed thoroughly between the booming 1980s and the post-crisis period. The importance of the number of unemployed, and in particular long-term unemployed, for the matching process has vanished. More unemployed do not increase matching as theory predicts but rather the opposite. In the second essay, The Aggregate Matching Function and Directed Search -Finnish Evidence, stock-flow matching as a potential micro foundation of the aggregate matching function is studied. In the essay I show that newly unemployed match mainly with the stock of vacancies while longer term unemployed match with the inflow of vacancies. When aggregating I still find evidence of the traditional aggregate matching function. This could explain the huge support the aggregate matching function has received despite its odd randomness assumption. The third essay, How do Registered Job Seekers really match? -Finnish occupational level Evidence, studies matching for nine occupational groups and finds that very different matching problems exist for different occupations. In this essay also misspecification stemming from non-corresponding variables is dealt with through the introduction of a completely new set of variables. The new outflow measure used is vacancies filled with registered job seekers and it is matched by the supply side measure registered job seekers.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

Modelling and Forecasting Property Rents and Returns (summary section only)

Recently, focus of real estate investment has expanded from the building-specific level to the aggregate portfolio level. The portfolio perspective requires investment analysis for real estate which is comparable with that of other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Thus, despite its distinctive features, such as heterogeneity, high unit value, illiquidity and the use of valuations to measure performance, real estate should not be considered in isolation. This means that techniques which are widely used for other assets classes can also be applied to real estate. An important part of investment strategies which support decisions on multi-asset portfolios is identifying the fundamentals of movements in property rents and returns, and predicting them on the basis of these fundamentals. The main objective of this thesis is to find the key drivers and the best methods for modelling and forecasting property rents and returns in markets which have experienced structural changes. The Finnish property market, which is a small European market with structural changes and limited property data, is used as a case study. The findings in the thesis show that is it possible to use modern econometric tools for modelling and forecasting property markets. The thesis consists of an introduction part and four essays. Essays 1 and 3 model Helsinki office rents and returns, and assess the suitability of alternative techniques for forecasting these series. Simple time series techniques are able to account for structural changes in the way markets operate, and thus provide the best forecasting tool. Theory-based econometric models, in particular error correction models, which are constrained by long-run information, are better for explaining past movements in rents and returns than for predicting their future movements. Essay 2 proceeds by examining the key drivers of rent movements for several property types in a number of Finnish property markets. The essay shows that commercial rents in local markets can be modelled using national macroeconomic variables and a panel approach. Finally, Essay 4 investigates whether forecasting models can be improved by accounting for asymmetric responses of office returns to the business cycle. The essay finds that the forecast performance of time series models can be improved by introducing asymmetries, and the improvement is sufficient to justify the extra computational time and effort associated with the application of these techniques.

Essays on the Role of Time in Price Discovery (summary section only)

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the role of trade durations in price discovery. The motivation to use trade durations in the study of price discovery is that durations are robust to many microstructure effects that introduce a bias in the measurement of returns volatility. Another motivation to use trade durations in the study of price discovery is that it is difficult to think of economic variables, which really are useful in the determination of the source of volatility at arbitrarily high frequencies. The dissertation contains three essays. In the first essay, the role of trade durations in price discovery is examined with respect to the volatility pattern of stock returns. The theory on volatility is associated with the theory on the information content of trade, dear to the market microstructure theory. The first essay documents that the volatility per transaction is related to the intensity of trade, and a strong relationship between the stochastic process of trade durations and trading variables. In the second essay, the role of trade durations in price discovery is examined with respect to the quantification of risk due to a trading volume of a certain size. The theory on volume is intrinsically associated with the stock volatility pattern. The essay documents that volatility increases, in general, when traders choose to trade with large transactions. In the third essay, the role of trade durations in price discovery is examined with respect to the information content of a trade. The theory on the information content of a trade is associated with the theory on the rate of price revisions in the market. The essay documents that short durations are associated with information. Thus, traders are compensated for responding quickly to information

Essays on the Costs and Benefits of Large Shareholders in Corporate Governance (summary section only)

“Corporate governance deals with the ways in which suppliers of finance to firms assure themselves of getting a return on their investment” (Shleifer and Vishny (1997, p. 737). According to La Porta et al. (1999), research in corporate finance relevant for most countries should focus on the incentives and capabilities of controlling shareholders to treat themselves preferentially at the expense of minority shareholders. Accordingly, this thesis sets out to answer a number of research questions regarding the role of large shareholders in public firms that have received little attention in the literature so far. A common theme in the essays stems from the costs and benefits of individual large-block owners and the role of control contestability from the perspective of outside minority shareholders. The first essay empirically examines whether there are systematic performance differences between family controlled and nonfamily controlled firms in Western Europe. In contrast to the widely held view that family control penalizes firm value, the essay shows that publicly traded family firms have higher performance than comparable firms. In the second essay, we present both theoretical and empirical analysis on the effects of control contestability on firm valuation. Consistent with the theoretical model, the empirical results show that minority shareholders benefit from a more contestable control structure. The third essay explores the effects of individual large-block owners on top management turnover and board appointments in Finnish listed firms. The results indicate that firm performance is an important determinant for management and board restructurings. For certain types of turnover decisions the corporate governance structure influences the performance / turnover sensitivity. In the fourth essay, we investigate the relation between the governance structure and dividend policy in Finnish listed firms. We find evidence in support of the outcome agency model of dividends stating that lower agency conflicts should be associated with higher dividend payouts.

Essays on Risk Modeling. Applications to Portfolio and Risk Management (summary section only)

In this thesis we deal with the concept of risk. The objective is to bring together and conclude on some normative information regarding quantitative portfolio management and risk assessment. The first essay concentrates on return dependency. We propose an algorithm for classifying markets into rising and falling. Given the algorithm, we derive a statistic: the Trend Switch Probability, for detection of long-term return dependency in the first moment. The empirical results suggest that the Trend Switch Probability is robust over various volatility specifications. The serial dependency in bear and bull markets behaves however differently. It is strongly positive in rising market whereas in bear markets it is closer to a random walk. Realized volatility, a technique for estimating volatility from high frequency data, is investigated in essays two and three. In the second essay we find, when measuring realized variance on a set of German stocks, that the second moment dependency structure is highly unstable and changes randomly. Results also suggest that volatility is non-stationary from time to time. In the third essay we examine the impact from market microstructure on the error between estimated realized volatility and the volatility of the underlying process. With simulation-based techniques we show that autocorrelation in returns leads to biased variance estimates and that lower sampling frequency and non-constant volatility increases the error variation between the estimated variance and the variance of the underlying process. From these essays we can conclude that volatility is not easily estimated, even from high frequency data. It is neither very well behaved in terms of stability nor dependency over time. Based on these observations, we would recommend the use of simple, transparent methods that are likely to be more robust over differing volatility regimes than models with a complex parameter universe. In analyzing long-term return dependency in the first moment we find that the Trend Switch Probability is a robust estimator. This is an interesting area for further research, with important implications for active asset allocation.

Essays on the Linkages Between Financial Markets, and Risk Asymmetries (summary section only)

During the last few decades there have been far going financial market deregulation, technical development, advances in information technology, and standardization of legislation between countries. As a result, one can expect that financial markets have grown more interlinked. The proper understanding of the cross-market linkages has implications for investment and risk management, diversification, asset pricing, and regulation. The purpose of this research is to assess the degree of price, return, and volatility linkages between both geographic markets and asset categories within one country, Finland. Another purpose is to analyze risk asymmetries, i.e., the tendency of equity risk to be higher after negative events than after positive events of equal magnitude. The analysis is conducted both with respect to total risk (volatility), and systematic risk (beta). The thesis consists of an introductory part and four essays. The first essay studies to which extent international stock prices comove. The degree of comovements is low, indicating benefits from international diversification. The second essay examines the degree to which the Finnish market is linked to the “world market”. The total risk is divided into two parts, one relating to world factors, and one relating to domestic factors. The impact of world factors has increased over time. After 1993, when foreign investors were allowed to freely invest in Finnish assets, the risk level has been higher than previously. This was also the case during the economic recession in the beginning of the 1990’s. The third essay focuses on the stock, bond, and money markets in Finland. According to a trading model, the degree of volatility linkages should be strong. However, the results contradict this. The linkages are surprisingly weak, even negative. The stock market is the most independent, while the money market is affected by events on the two other markets. The fourth essay concentrates on volatility and beta asymmetries. Contrary to many international studies there are only few cases of risk asymmetries. When they occur, they tend to be driven by the market-wide component rather than the portfolio specific element.