The Reorganisation of Provincial Territories in Light of the Imperial Decision-Making Process : Later Roman Arabia and Tres Palaestinae as Case Studies

The dissertation examines Roman provincial administration and the phenomenon of territorial reorganisations of provinces during the Imperial period with special emphasis on the provinces of Arabia and Palaestina during the Later Roman period, i.e., from Diocletian (r. 284 305) to the accession of Phocas (602), in the light of imperial decision-making. Provinces were the basic unit of Roman rule, for centuries the only level of administration that existed between the emperor and the cities of the Empire. The significance of the territorial reorganisations that the provinces were subjected to during the Imperial period is thus of special interest. The approach to the phenomenon is threefold: firstly, attention is paid to the nature and constraints of the Roman system of provincial administration. Secondly, the phenomenon of territorial reorganisations is analysed on the macro-scale, and thirdly, a case study concerning the reorganisations of the provinces of Arabia and Palaestina is conducted. The study of the mechanisms of decision-making provides a foundation through which the collected data of all known major territorial reorganisations is interpreted. The data concerning reorganisations is also subjected to qualitative comparative analysis that provides a new perspective to the data in the form of statistical analysis that is sensitive to the complexities of individual cases. This analysis of imperial decision-making is based on a timeframe stretching from Augustus (r. 30 BC AD 14) to the accession of Phocas (602). The study identifies five distinct phases in the use of territorial reorganisations of the provinces. From Diocletian s reign there is a clear normative change that made territorial reorganisations a regular tool of administration for the decision-making elite for addressing a wide variety of qualitatively different concerns. From the beginning of the fifth century the use of territorial reorganisations rapidly diminishes. The two primary reasons for the decline in the use of reorganisations were the solidification of ecclesiastical power and interests connected to the extent of provinces, and the decline of the dioceses. The case study of Palaestina and Arabia identifies seven different territorial reorganisations from Diocletian to Phocas. Their existence not only testifies to wider imperial policies, but also shows sensitivity to local conditions and corresponds with the general picture of provincial reorganisations. The territorial reorganisations of the provinces reflect the proactive control of the Roman decision-making elite. The importance of reorganisations should be recognised more clearly as part of the normal imperial administration of the provinces and especially reflecting the functioning of dioceses.

Leibniz on Rational Decision-Making

In this study I discuss G. W. Leibniz's (1646-1716) views on rational decision-making from the standpoint of both God and man. The Divine decision takes place within creation, as God freely chooses the best from an infinite number of possible worlds. While God's choice is based on absolutely certain knowledge, human decisions on practical matters are mostly based on uncertain knowledge. However, in many respects they could be regarded as analogous in more complicated situations. In addition to giving an overview of the divine decision-making and discussing critically the criteria God favours in his choice, I provide an account of Leibniz's views on human deliberation, which includes some new ideas. One of these concerns is the importance of estimating probabilities in making decisions one estimates both the goodness of the act itself and its consequences as far as the desired good is concerned. Another idea is related to the plurality of goods in complicated decisions and the competition this may provoke. Thirdly, heuristic models are used to sketch situations under deliberation in order to help in making the decision. Combining the views of Marcelo Dascal, Jaakko Hintikka and Simo Knuuttila, I argue that Leibniz applied two kinds of models of rational decision-making to practical controversies, often without explicating the details. The more simple, traditional pair of scales model is best suited to cases in which one has to decide for or against some option, or to distribute goods among parties and strive for a compromise. What may be of more help in more complicated deliberations is the novel vectorial model, which is an instance of the general mathematical doctrine of the calculus of variations. To illustrate this distinction, I discuss some cases in which he apparently applied these models in different kinds of situation. These examples support the view that the models had a systematic value in his theory of practical rationality.

Owner-driven decision support in holding-specific forest planning

Socio-economic and demographic changes among family forest owners and demands for versatile forestry decision aid motivated this study, which sought grounds for owner-driven forest planning. Finnish family forest owners’ forest-related decision making was analyzed in two interview-based qualitative studies, the main findings of which were surveyed quantitatively. Thereafter, a scheme for adaptively mixing methods in individually tailored decision support processes was constructed. The first study assessed owners’ decision-making strategies by examining varying levels of the sharing of decision-making power and the desire to learn. Five decision-making modes – trusting, learning, managing, pondering, and decisive – were discerned and discussed against conformable decision-aid approaches. The second study conceptualized smooth communication and assessed emotional, practical, and institutional boosters of and barriers to such smoothness in communicative decision support. The results emphasize the roles of trust, comprehension, and contextual services in owners’ communicative decision making. In the third study, a questionnaire tool to measure owners’ attitudes towards communicative planning was constructed by using trusting, learning, and decisive dimensions. Through a multivariate analysis of survey data, three owner groups were identified as fusions of the original decision-making modes: trusting learners (53%), decisive learners (27%), and decisive managers (20%). Differently weighted communicative services are recommended for these compound wishes. The findings of the studies above were synthesized in a form of adaptive decision analysis (ADA), which allows and encourages the decision-maker (owner) to make deliberate choices concerning the phases of a decision aid (planning) process. The ADA model relies on adaptability and feedback management, which foster smooth communication with the owner and (inter-)organizational learning of the planning institution(s). The summarized results indicate that recognizing the communication-related amenity values of family forest owners may be crucial in developing planning and extension services. It is therefore recommended that owners, root-level planners, consultation professionals, and pragmatic researchers collaboratively continue to seek stable change.

Information Visualization in a Business Decision Support System

Information visualization is a process of constructing a visual presentation of abstract quantitative data. The characteristics of visual perception enable humans to recognize patterns, trends and anomalies inherent in the data with little effort in a visual display. Such properties of the data are likely to be missed in a purely text-based presentation. Visualizations are therefore widely used in contemporary business decision support systems. Visual user interfaces called dashboards are tools for reporting the status of a company and its business environment to facilitate business intelligence (BI) and performance management activities. In this study, we examine the research on the principles of human visual perception and information visualization as well as the application of visualization in a business decision support system. A review of current BI software products reveals that the visualizations included in them are often quite ineffective in communicating important information. Based on the principles of visual perception and information visualization, we summarize a set of design guidelines for creating effective visual reporting interfaces.

Sticking and erosion at carbon-containing plasma-facing materials in fusion reactors

Controlled nuclear fusion is one of the most promising sources of energy for the future. Before this goal can be achieved, one must be able to control the enormous energy densities which are present in the core plasma in a fusion reactor. In order to be able to predict the evolution and thereby the lifetime of different plasma facing materials under reactor-relevant conditions, the interaction of atoms and molecules with plasma first wall surfaces have to be studied in detail. In this thesis, the fundamental sticking and erosion processes of carbon-based materials, the nature of hydrocarbon species released from plasma-facing surfaces, and the evolution of the components under cumulative bombardment by atoms and molecules have been investigated by means of molecular dynamics simulations using both analytic potentials and a semi-empirical tight-binding method. The sticking cross-section of CH3 radicals at unsaturated carbon sites at diamond (111) surfaces is observed to decrease with increasing angle of incidence, a dependence which can be described by a simple geometrical model. The simulations furthermore show the sticking cross-section of CH3 radicals to be strongly dependent on the local neighborhood of the unsaturated carbon site. The erosion of amorphous hydrogenated carbon surfaces by helium, neon, and argon ions in combination with hydrogen at energies ranging from 2 to 10 eV is studied using both non-cumulative and cumulative bombardment simulations. The results show no significant differences between sputtering yields obtained from bombardment simulations with different noble gas ions. The final simulation cells from the 5 and 10 eV ion bombardment simulations, however, show marked differences in surface morphology. In further simulations the behavior of amorphous hydrogenated carbon surfaces under bombardment with D^+, D^+2, and D^+3 ions in the energy range from 2 to 30 eV has been investigated. The total chemical sputtering yields indicate that molecular projectiles lead to larger sputtering yields than atomic projectiles. Finally, the effect of hydrogen ion bombardment of both crystalline and amorphous tungsten carbide surfaces is studied. Prolonged bombardment is found to lead to the formation of an amorphous tungsten carbide layer, regardless of the initial structure of the sample. In agreement with experiment, preferential sputtering of carbon is observed in both the cumulative and non-cumulative simulations

Interatomic potentials for fusion reactor material simulations

Fusion energy is a clean and safe solution for the intricate question of how to produce non-polluting and sustainable energy for the constantly growing population. The fusion process does not result in any harmful waste or green-house gases, since small amounts of helium is the only bi-product that is produced when using the hydrogen isotopes deuterium and tritium as fuel. Moreover, deuterium is abundant in seawater and tritium can be bred from lithium, a common metal in the Earth's crust, rendering the fuel reservoirs practically bottomless. Due to its enormous mass, the Sun has been able to utilize fusion as its main energy source ever since it was born. But here on Earth, we must find other means to achieve the same. Inertial fusion involving powerful lasers and thermonuclear fusion employing extreme temperatures are examples of successful methods. However, these have yet to produce more energy than they consume. In thermonuclear fusion, the fuel is held inside a tokamak, which is a doughnut-shaped chamber with strong magnets wrapped around it. Once the fuel is heated up, it is controlled with the help of these magnets, since the required temperatures (over 100 million degrees C) will separate the electrons from the nuclei, forming a plasma. Once the fusion reactions occur, excess binding energy is released as energetic neutrons, which are absorbed in water in order to produce steam that runs turbines. Keeping the power losses from the plasma low, thus allowing for a high number of reactions, is a challenge. Another challenge is related to the reactor materials, since the confinement of the plasma particles is not perfect, resulting in particle bombardment of the reactor walls and structures. Material erosion and activation as well as plasma contamination are expected. Adding to this, the high energy neutrons will cause radiation damage in the materials, causing, for instance, swelling and embrittlement. In this thesis, the behaviour of a material situated in a fusion reactor was studied using molecular dynamics simulations. Simulations of processes in the next generation fusion reactor ITER include the reactor materials beryllium, carbon and tungsten as well as the plasma hydrogen isotopes. This means that interaction models, {\it i.e. interatomic potentials}, for this complicated quaternary system are needed. The task of finding such potentials is nonetheless nearly at its end, since models for the beryllium-carbon-hydrogen interactions were constructed in this thesis and as a continuation of that work, a beryllium-tungsten model is under development. These potentials are combinable with the earlier tungsten-carbon-hydrogen ones. The potentials were used to explain the chemical sputtering of beryllium due to deuterium plasma exposure. During experiments, a large fraction of the sputtered beryllium atoms were observed to be released as BeD molecules, and the simulations identified the swift chemical sputtering mechanism, previously not believed to be important in metals, as the underlying mechanism. Radiation damage in the reactor structural materials vanadium, iron and iron chromium, as well as in the wall material tungsten and the mixed alloy tungsten carbide, was also studied in this thesis. Interatomic potentials for vanadium, tungsten and iron were modified to be better suited for simulating collision cascades that are formed during particle irradiation, and the potential features affecting the resulting primary damage were identified. Including the often neglected electronic effects in the simulations was also shown to have an impact on the damage. With proper tuning of the electron-phonon interaction strength, experimentally measured quantities related to ion-beam mixing in iron could be reproduced. The damage in tungsten carbide alloys showed elemental asymmetry, as the major part of the damage consisted of carbon defects. On the other hand, modelling the damage in the iron chromium alloy, essentially representing steel, showed that small additions of chromium do not noticeably affect the primary damage in iron. Since a complete assessment of the response of a material in a future full-scale fusion reactor is not achievable using only experimental techniques, molecular dynamics simulations are of vital help. This thesis has not only provided insight into complicated reactor processes and improved current methods, but also offered tools for further simulations. It is therefore an important step towards making fusion energy more than a future goal.

Multiscale study on hydrogen mobility in metallic fusion divertor material

For achieving efficient fusion energy production, the plasma-facing wall materials of the fusion reactor should ensure long time operation. In the next step fusion device, ITER, the first wall region facing the highest heat and particle load, i.e. the divertor area, will mainly consist of tiles based on tungsten. During the reactor operation, the tungsten material is slowly but inevitably saturated with tritium. Tritium is the relatively short-lived hydrogen isotope used in the fusion reaction. The amount of tritium retained in the wall materials should be minimized and its recycling back to the plasma must be unrestrained, otherwise it cannot be used for fueling the plasma. A very expensive and thus economically not viable solution is to replace the first walls quite often. A better solution is to heat the walls to temperatures where tritium is released. Unfortunately, the exact mechanisms of hydrogen release in tungsten are not known. In this thesis both experimental and computational methods have been used for studying the release and retention of hydrogen in tungsten. The experimental work consists of hydrogen implantations into pure polycrystalline tungsten, the determination of the hydrogen concentrations using ion beam analyses (IBA) and monitoring the out-diffused hydrogen gas with thermodesorption spectrometry (TDS) as the tungsten samples are heated at elevated temperatures. Combining IBA methods with TDS, the retained amount of hydrogen is obtained as well as the temperatures needed for the hydrogen release. With computational methods the hydrogen-defect interactions and implantation-induced irradiation damage can be examined at the atomic level. The method of multiscale modelling combines the results obtained from computational methodologies applicable at different length and time scales. Electron density functional theory calculations were used for determining the energetics of the elementary processes of hydrogen in tungsten, such as diffusivity and trapping to vacancies and surfaces. Results from the energetics of pure tungsten defects were used in the development of an classical bond-order potential for describing the tungsten defects to be used in molecular dynamics simulations. The developed potential was utilized in determination of the defect clustering and annihilation properties. These results were further employed in binary collision and rate theory calculations to determine the evolution of large defect clusters that trap hydrogen in the course of implantation. The computational results for the defect and trapped hydrogen concentrations were successfully compared with the experimental results. With the aforedescribed multiscale analysis the experimental results within this thesis and found in the literature were explained both quantitatively and qualitatively.

Computer simulation of H and He effects in fusion reactor materials

Fusion power is an appealing source of clean and abundant energy. The radiation resistance of reactor materials is one of the greatest obstacles on the path towards commercial fusion power. These materials are subject to a harsh radiation environment, and cannot fail mechanically or contaminate the fusion plasma. Moreover, for a power plant to be economically viable, the reactor materials must withstand long operation times, with little maintenance. The fusion reactor materials will contain hydrogen and helium, due to deposition from the plasma and nuclear reactions because of energetic neutron irradiation. The first wall divertor materials, carbon and tungsten in existing and planned test reactors, will be subject to intense bombardment of low energy deuterium and helium, which erodes and modifies the surface. All reactor materials, including the structural steel, will suffer irradiation of high energy neutrons, causing displacement cascade damage. Molecular dynamics simulation is a valuable tool for studying irradiation phenomena, such as surface bombardment and the onset of primary damage due to displacement cascades. The governing mechanisms are on the atomic level, and hence not easily studied experimentally. In order to model materials, interatomic potentials are needed to describe the interaction between the atoms. In this thesis, new interatomic potentials were developed for the tungsten-carbon-hydrogen system and for iron-helium and chromium-helium. Thus, the study of previously inaccessible systems was made possible, in particular the effect of H and He on radiation damage. The potentials were based on experimental and ab initio data from the literature, as well as density-functional theory calculations performed in this work. As a model for ferritic steel, iron-chromium with 10% Cr was studied. The difference between Fe and FeCr was shown to be negligible for threshold displacement energies. The properties of small He and He-vacancy clusters in Fe and FeCr were also investigated. The clusters were found to be more mobile and dissociate more rapidly than previously assumed, and the effect of Cr was small. The primary damage formed by displacement cascades was found to be heavily influenced by the presence of He, both in FeCr and W. Many important issues with fusion reactor materials remain poorly understood, and will require a huge effort by the international community. The development of potential models for new materials and the simulations performed in this thesis reveal many interesting features, but also serve as a platform for further studies.

Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.