Characterisation and processing of amorphous binary mixtures with low glass transition temperature

The number of drug substances in formulation development in the pharmaceutical industry is increasing. Some of these are amorphous drugs and have glass transition below ambient temperature, and thus they are usually difficult to formulate and handle. One reason for this is the reduced viscosity, related to the stickiness of the drug, that makes them complicated to handle in unit operations. Thus, the aim in this thesis was to develop a new processing method for a sticky amorphous model material. Furthermore, model materials were characterised before and after formulation, using several characterisation methods, to understand more precisely the prerequisites for physical stability of amorphous state against crystallisation. The model materials used were monoclinic paracetamol and citric acid anhydrate. Amorphous materials were prepared by melt quenching or by ethanol evaporation methods. The melt blends were found to have slightly higher viscosity than the ethanol evaporated materials. However, melt produced materials crystallised more easily upon consecutive shearing than ethanol evaporated materials. The only material that did not crystallise during shearing was a 50/50 (w/w, %) blend regardless of the preparation method and it was physically stable at least two years in dry conditions. Shearing at varying temperatures was established to measure the physical stability of amorphous materials in processing and storage conditions. The actual physical stability of the blends was better than the pure amorphous materials at ambient temperature. Molecular mobility was not related to the physical stability of the amorphous blends, observed as crystallisation. Molecular mobility of the 50/50 blend derived from a spectral linewidth as a function of temperature using solid state NMR correlated better with the molecular mobility derived from a rheometer than that of differential scanning calorimetry data. Based on the results obtained, the effect of molecular interactions, thermodynamic driving force and miscibility of the blends are discussed as the key factors to stabilise the blends. The stickiness was found to be affected glass transition and viscosity. Ultrasound extrusion and cutting were successfully tested to increase the processability of sticky material. Furthermore, it was found to be possible to process the physically stable 50/50 blend in a supercooled liquid state instead of a glassy state. The method was not found to accelerate the crystallisation. This may open up new possibilities to process amorphous materials that are otherwise impossible to manufacture into solid dosage forms.

Generalised regression estimation for domain class frequencies

This study examines the properties of Generalised Regression (GREG) estimators for domain class frequencies and proportions. The family of GREG estimators forms the class of design-based model-assisted estimators. All GREG estimators utilise auxiliary information via modelling. The classic GREG estimator with a linear fixed effects assisting model (GREG-lin) is one example. But when estimating class frequencies, the study variable is binary or polytomous. Therefore logistic-type assisting models (e.g. logistic or probit model) should be preferred over the linear one. However, other GREG estimators than GREG-lin are rarely used, and knowledge about their properties is limited. This study examines the properties of L-GREG estimators, which are GREG estimators with fixed-effects logistic-type models. Three research questions are addressed. First, I study whether and when L-GREG estimators are more accurate than GREG-lin. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo experiments which cover both equal and unequal probability sampling designs and a wide variety of model formulations show that in standard situations, the difference between L-GREG and GREG-lin is small. But in the case of a strong assisting model, two interesting situations arise: if the domain sample size is reasonably large, L-GREG is more accurate than GREG-lin, and if the domain sample size is very small, estimation of assisting model parameters may be inaccurate, resulting in bias for L-GREG. Second, I study variance estimation for the L-GREG estimators. The standard variance estimator (S) for all GREG estimators resembles the Sen-Yates-Grundy variance estimator, but it is a double sum of prediction errors, not of the observed values of the study variable. Monte Carlo experiments show that S underestimates the variance of L-GREG especially if the domain sample size is minor, or if the assisting model is strong. Third, since the standard variance estimator S often fails for the L-GREG estimators, I propose a new augmented variance estimator (A). The difference between S and the new estimator A is that the latter takes into account the difference between the sample fit model and the census fit model. In Monte Carlo experiments, the new estimator A outperformed the standard estimator S in terms of bias, root mean square error and coverage rate. Thus the new estimator provides a good alternative to the standard estimator.

Univariate, bivariate, and multivariate methods in corpus-based lexicography : A study of synonymy

In this dissertation, I present an overall methodological framework for studying linguistic alternations, focusing specifically on lexical variation in denoting a single meaning, that is, synonymy. As the practical example, I employ the synonymous set of the four most common Finnish verbs denoting THINK, namely ajatella, miettiä, pohtia and harkita ‘think, reflect, ponder, consider’. As a continuation to previous work, I describe in considerable detail the extension of statistical methods from dichotomous linguistic settings (e.g., Gries 2003; Bresnan et al. 2007) to polytomous ones, that is, concerning more than two possible alternative outcomes. The applied statistical methods are arranged into a succession of stages with increasing complexity, proceeding from univariate via bivariate to multivariate techniques in the end. As the central multivariate method, I argue for the use of polytomous logistic regression and demonstrate its practical implementation to the studied phenomenon, thus extending the work by Bresnan et al. (2007), who applied simple (binary) logistic regression to a dichotomous structural alternation in English. The results of the various statistical analyses confirm that a wide range of contextual features across different categories are indeed associated with the use and selection of the selected think lexemes; however, a substantial part of these features are not exemplified in current Finnish lexicographical descriptions. The multivariate analysis results indicate that the semantic classifications of syntactic argument types are on the average the most distinctive feature category, followed by overall semantic characterizations of the verb chains, and then syntactic argument types alone, with morphological features pertaining to the verb chain and extra-linguistic features relegated to the last position. In terms of overall performance of the multivariate analysis and modeling, the prediction accuracy seems to reach a ceiling at a Recall rate of roughly two-thirds of the sentences in the research corpus. The analysis of these results suggests a limit to what can be explained and determined within the immediate sentential context and applying the conventional descriptive and analytical apparatus based on currently available linguistic theories and models. The results also support Bresnan’s (2007) and others’ (e.g., Bod et al. 2003) probabilistic view of the relationship between linguistic usage and the underlying linguistic system, in which only a minority of linguistic choices are categorical, given the known context – represented as a feature cluster – that can be analytically grasped and identified. Instead, most contexts exhibit degrees of variation as to their outcomes, resulting in proportionate choices over longer stretches of usage in texts or speech.

Psychological resources, their social antecedents, and association with well-being and health behaviour in early adulthood

The success of entering work life, young people s psychological resources and self-reported well-being were studied in a longitudinal setting from a life-span developmental-contextual perspective in early adulthood. The aim was to analyse how psychosocial characteristics in early childhood and adolescence predict successful entrance into work life, how this is associated with well-being, and to assess the level of psychological resources such as dispositional optimism, personal meaning of work and coping in early adulthood. The role of these and social support, in the relationship between regional factors (such as place of residence and migration), self-reported health and life satisfaction was studied. The association between a specific coping strategy, i.e. eating and drinking in a stressful situation and eating habits, was studied to demonstrate how coping is associated with health behaviour. Multivariate methods, including binary logistic regression analyses and ANOVA, were used for statistical analyses. The subjects were members of the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort, which consists of all women and men born in 1966 in the two northernmost provinces of Finland (n= 12,058). The most recent follow-up, at the age of 31 years when 11,637 subjects were alive, took place in 1997-1998. The results show, first, that social resources in the childhood family and adolescence school achievement predict entrance into the labour market. Secondly, psychosocial resources were found to mediate the relationship between migration from rural to urban areas, and subjective well-being. Thirdly, psychological resources at entrance into the labour market were found to develop from early infancy on. They are, however, influenced later by work history. Fourthly, stress-related eating and drinking, as a way of coping, was found to be directly associated with unhealthy eating habits and alcohol use. Gender differences were found in psychosocial resources predicting, and being associated with success in entering the labour market. For men, the role of attitudinal and psychological factors seems to be especially important in entrance into work life and in the development of psychological resources. For women, academic attainment was more important for successfully entering work life, and lack of emotional social support was a risk factor for stress-related eating only among women. Stress-related eating and drinking habits were predicted by a long history of unemployment as well as a low level of education among both genders, but not excluding an academic degree among men. The results emphasize the role of childhood psychosocial factors in preventing long-term unemployment and in enhancing psychological well-being in early adulthood. Success in entering work life, in terms of continuous work history, plays a crucial role for well-being and the amount of psychological resources in early adulthood. The results emphasize the crucial role of enhancing psychological resources for promoting positive health behaviour and diminishing regional differences in subjective well-being.

To reactivate or not to reactivate : Control of KSHV lytic replication is essential for apoptosis in response to p53 restoration

Kaposi's sarcoma herpesvirus (KSHV) is an oncogenic human virus and the causative agent of three human malignancies: Kaposi's sarcoma (KS), Multicentric Castleman's Disease (MCD), and primary effusion lymphoma (PEL). In tumors, KSHV establishes latent infection during which it produces no infectious particles. Latently infected cells can enter the lytic replication cycle, and upon provision of appropriate cellular signals, produce progeny virus. PEL, commonly described in patients with AIDS, represents a diffuse large-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, with median survival time less than six months after diagnosis. As tumor suppressor gene TP53 mutations occur rarely in PEL, the aim of this thesis was to investigate whether non-genotoxic activation of the p53 pathway can eradicate malignant PEL cells. This thesis demonstrates that Nutlin-3, a small-molecule inhibitor of the p53-MDM2 interaction, efficiently restored p53 function in PEL cells, leading to cell cycle arrest and massive apoptosis. Furthermore, we found that KSHV infection activated DNA damage signaling, rendering the cells more sensitive to p53-dependent cell death. We also showed in vivo the therapeutic potential of p53 restoration that led to regression of subcutaneous and intraperitoneal PEL tumor xenografts without adversely affecting normal cells. Importantly, we demonstrated that in a small subset of intraperitoneal PEL tumors, spontaneous induction of viral reactivation dramatically impaired Nutlin-3-induced p53-mediated apoptosis. Accordingly, we found that elevated KSHV lytic transcripts correlated with PEL tumor burden in animals and that inhibition of viral reactivation in vitro restored cytotoxic activity of a small-molecule inhibitor of the p53-MDM2 interaction. Latency provides a unique opportunity for KSHV to escape host immune surveillance and to establish persistent infections. However, to maintain viral reservoirs and spread to other hosts, KSHV must be reactivated from latency and enter into the lytic growth phase. We showed that phosphorylation of nucleolar phosphoprotein nucleophosmin (NPM) by viral cyclin-CDK6 is critical for establishment and maintenance of the KSHV latency. In short, this study provides evidence that the switch between latent phase and lytic replication is a critical step that determines the outcome of viral infection and the pathogenesis of KSHV-induced malignancies. Our data may thus contribute to development of novel targeted therapies for intervention and treatment of KSHV-associated cancers.

Dyslipidaemia, glucose intolerance and cardiovascular disease mortality and morbidity in Europeans and Asians

Dyslipidaemia, a major risk factor of cardiovascular disease (CVD), is prevalent not only in diabetic patients but also in individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or impaired fasting glucose (IFG). The aims of this study were: 1) to investigate lipid levels in relation to glucose in European (Study I) and Asian (Study II) populations without a prior history of diabetes; 2) to study the ethnic difference in lipid profiles controlling for glucose levels (Study III); 3) to estimate the relative risk for cardiovascular mortality (Study IV) and morbidity (Study V) associated with dyslipidaemia in individuals with different glucose tolerance status. Data of 15 European cohorts with 19 476 subjects (I and III) and 13 Asian cohorts with 19 763 individuals (II and III) from 21 countries aged 25-89 years, without a prior history of diabetes at enrollment, representing Asian Indian, Chinese, European, Japanese and Mauritian Indian, were compared. The lipid-CVD relationship was studied in 14 European cohorts of 17 763 men and women which provided with follow-up data on vital status, with 871 CVD deaths occurred during the average 10-year follow-up (IV). The impact of dyslipidaemia on incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) in persons with different glucose categories (V) was further evaluated in 6 European studies, with 9087 individuals free of CHD at baseline and 457 developed CHD during follow-up. Z-scores of each lipid component were used in the data analysis (I, II, IV and V) to reduce the differences in methodology between studies. Analyses of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity were performed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis adjusting for potential confounding factors. Within each glucose category, fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels were correlated with increasing levels of triglycerides (TG), total cholesterol (TC), TC to high-density lipoprotein (HDL) ratio and non-HDL cholesterol (non-HDL-C) (p<0.05 in most of the ethnic groups) and inversely associated with HDL-C (p<0.05 in some, but not all, of the populations). The association of lipids with 2-h plasma glucose (2hPG) followed a similar pattern as that for the FPG, except the stronger association of HDL-C with 2hPG. Compared with Central & Northern (C & N) Europeans, multivariable adjusted odd ratios (95% CIs) for having low HDL-C were 4.74 (4.19-5.37), 5.05 (3.88-6.56), 3.07 (2.15-4.40) and 2.37 (1.67-3.35) in Asian Indian men but 0.12 (0.09-0.16), 0.07 (0.04-0.13), 0.11 (0.07-0.20) and 0.16 (0.08-0.32) in Chinese men who had normoglycaemia, prediabetes, undiagnosed and diagnosed diabetes, respectively. Similar results were obtained for women. The prevalence of low HDL-C remained higher in Asian Indians than in others even in individuals with LDL-C < 3 mmol/l. Dyslipidaemia was associated with increased CVD mortality or CHD incidence in individuals with isolated fasting hyperglycaemia or IFG, but not in those with isolated post-load hyperglycaemia or IGT. In conclusion, hyperglycaemia is associated with adverse lipid profiles in Europeans and Asians without a prior history of diabetes. There are distinct patterns of lipid profiles associated with ethnicity regardless of the glucose levels, suggesting that ethnic-specific strategies and guidelines on risk assessment and prevention of CVD are required. Dyslipidaemia predicts CVD in either diabetic or non-diabetic individuals defined based on the fasting glucose criteria, but not on the 2-hour criteria. The findings may imply considering different management strategies in people with fasting or post-load hyperglycaemia.

Joint Regression and Association Models for Repeated Categorical Responses

The focus of this study is on statistical analysis of categorical responses, where the response values are dependent of each other. The most typical example of this kind of dependence is when repeated responses have been obtained from the same study unit. For example, in Paper I, the response of interest is the pneumococcal nasopharengyal carriage (yes/no) on 329 children. For each child, the carriage is measured nine times during the first 18 months of life, and thus repeated respones on each child cannot be assumed independent of each other. In the case of the above example, the interest typically lies in the carriage prevalence, and whether different risk factors affect the prevalence. Regression analysis is the established method for studying the effects of risk factors. In order to make correct inferences from the regression model, the associations between repeated responses need to be taken into account. The analysis of repeated categorical responses typically focus on regression modelling. However, further insights can also be gained by investigating the structure of the association. The central theme in this study is on the development of joint regression and association models. The analysis of repeated, or otherwise clustered, categorical responses is computationally difficult. Likelihood-based inference is often feasible only when the number of repeated responses for each study unit is small. In Paper IV, an algorithm is presented, which substantially facilitates maximum likelihood fitting, especially when the number of repeated responses increase. In addition, a notable result arising from this work is the freely available software for likelihood-based estimation of clustered categorical responses.

Efficient search for statistically significant dependency rules in binary data

Analyzing statistical dependencies is a fundamental problem in all empirical science. Dependencies help us understand causes and effects, create new scientific theories, and invent cures to problems. Nowadays, large amounts of data is available, but efficient computational tools for analyzing the data are missing. In this research, we develop efficient algorithms for a commonly occurring search problem - searching for the statistically most significant dependency rules in binary data. We consider dependency rules of the form X->A or X->not A, where X is a set of positive-valued attributes and A is a single attribute. Such rules describe which factors either increase or decrease the probability of the consequent A. A classical example are genetic and environmental factors, which can either cause or prevent a disease. The emphasis in this research is that the discovered dependencies should be genuine - i.e. they should also hold in future data. This is an important distinction from the traditional association rules, which - in spite of their name and a similar appearance to dependency rules - do not necessarily represent statistical dependencies at all or represent only spurious connections, which occur by chance. Therefore, the principal objective is to search for the rules with statistical significance measures. Another important objective is to search for only non-redundant rules, which express the real causes of dependence, without any occasional extra factors. The extra factors do not add any new information on the dependence, but can only blur it and make it less accurate in future data. The problem is computationally very demanding, because the number of all possible rules increases exponentially with the number of attributes. In addition, neither the statistical dependency nor the statistical significance are monotonic properties, which means that the traditional pruning techniques do not work. As a solution, we first derive the mathematical basis for pruning the search space with any well-behaving statistical significance measures. The mathematical theory is complemented by a new algorithmic invention, which enables an efficient search without any heuristic restrictions. The resulting algorithm can be used to search for both positive and negative dependencies with any commonly used statistical measures, like Fisher's exact test, the chi-squared measure, mutual information, and z scores. According to our experiments, the algorithm is well-scalable, especially with Fisher's exact test. It can easily handle even the densest data sets with 10000-20000 attributes. Still, the results are globally optimal, which is a remarkable improvement over the existing solutions. In practice, this means that the user does not have to worry whether the dependencies hold in future data or if the data still contains better, but undiscovered dependencies.

Balance of growth factors in the human perinatal lung : Implications for physiological lung development and link to bronchopulmonary dysplasia

The aims of this Thesis was to evaluate the role of proangiogenic placental growth factor (PlGF), antiangiogenic endostatin and lymphangiogenic vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) -C as well as the receptors vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR) -2 and VEGFR-3 during lung development and in development of lung injury in preterm infants. The studied growth factors were selected due to a close relationship with VEGF-A; a proangiogenic growth factor important in normal lung angiogenesis and lung injury in preterm infants. The thesis study consists of three analyses. I: Lung samples from fetuses, preterm and term infants without lung injury, as well as preterm infants with acute and chronic lung injury were stained by immunohistochemistry for PlGF, endostatin, VEGF-C, VEGFR-2 and VEGFR-3. II: Tracheal aspirate fluid (TAF) was collected in the early postnatal period from a patient population consisting of 59 preterm infants, half developing bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) and half without BPD. PlGF, endostatin and VEGF-C concentrations were measured by commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). III: Cord plasma was collected from very low birth weight (VLBW) (n=92) and term (n=48) infants in conjuncture with birth and endostatin concentrations were measured by ELISA. I: All growth factors and receptors studied were consistently stained in immunohistochemistry throughout development. For endostatin in early respiratory distress syndrome (RDS), no alveolar epithelial or macrophage staining was seen, whereas in late RDS and BPD groups, both alveolar epithelium and macrophages stained positively in approximately half of the samples. VEGFR-2 staining was fairly consistent, except for the fact that capillary endothelial staining in the BPD group was significantly decreased. II: During the first postnatal week in TAF mean PlGF concentrations were stable whereas mean endostatin and VEGF-C concentrations decreased. Higher concentrations of endostatin and VEGF-C correlated with lower birth weight (BW) and associated with administration of antenatal betamethasone. Parameters reflecting prenatal lung inflammation associated with lower PlGF, endostatin and VEGF-C concentrations. A higher mean supplemental fraction of inspired oxygen during the first 2 postnatal weeks (FiO2) correlated with higher endostatin concentrations. III: Endostatin concentrations in term infants were significantly higher than in VLBW infants. In VLBW infants higher endostatin concentrations associated with the development of BPD, this association remained significant after logistic regression analysis. We conclude that PlGF, endostatin and VEGF-C all have a physiological role in the developing lung. Also, the VEGFR-2 expression profile seems to reflect the ongoing differentiation of endothelia during development. Both endostatin and VEGFR-2 seem to be important in the development of BPD. During the latter part of the first postnatal week, preterm infants developing BPD have lower concentrations of VEGF-A in TAF. Our findings of disrupted VEGFR-2 staining in capillary and septal endothelium seen in the BPD group, as well as the increase in endostatin concentrations both in TAF and cord plasma associated with BPD, seem to strengthen the notion that there is a shift in the angiogenic balance towards a more antiangiogenic environment in BPD. These findings support the vascular hypothesis of BPD.

Helicobacter pylori: resistance and treatment results in Finland

Background: Helicobacter pylori infection is usually acquired in early childhood and is rarely resolved spontaneously. Eradication therapy is currently recommended virtually to all patients. While the first and second therapies are prescribed without knowing the antibiotic resistance of the bacteria, it is important to know the primary resistance in the population. Aim: This study evaluates the primary resistance of H. pylori among patients in primary health care throughout Finland, the efficacy of three eradication regimens, the symptomatic response to successful therapy, and the effect of smoking on gastric histology and humoral response in H. pylori-positive patients. Patients and methods: A total of 23 endoscopy referral centres located throughout Finland recruited 342 adult patients with positive rapid urease test results, who were referred to upper gastrointestinal endoscopy from primary health care. Gastric histology, H. pylori resistance and H. pylori serology were evaluated. The patients were randomized to receive a seven-day regimen, comprising 1) lansoprazole 30 mg b.d., amoxicillin 1 g b.d. and metronidazole 400 mg t.d. (LAM), 2) lansoprazole 30 mg b.d., amoxicillin 1 g b.d. and clarithromycin 500 mg b.d. (LAC) or 3) ranitidine bismuth citrate 400 mg b.d., metronidazole 400 mg t.d. and tetracycline 500 mg q.d. (RMT). The eradication results were assessed, using the 13C-urea breath test 4 weeks after therapy. The patients completed a symptom questionnaire before and a year after the therapy. Results: Primary resistance of H. pylori to metronidazole was 48% among women and 25% among men. In women, metronidazole resistance correlated with previous use of antibiotics for gynaecologic infections and alcohol consumption. Resistance rate to clarithromycin was only 2%. Intention-to-treat cure rates of LAM, LAC, and RMT were 78%, 91% and 81%. While in metronidazole-sensitive cases the cure rates with LAM, LAC and RMT were similar, in metronidazole resistance LAM and RMT were inferior to LAC (53%, 67% and 84%). Previous antibiotic therapies reduced the efficacy of LAC, to the level of RMT. Dyspeptic symptoms in the Gastrointestinal Symptoms Rating Scale (GSRS) were decreased by 30.5%. In logistic regression analysis, duodenal ulcer, gastric antral neutrophilic inflammation and age from 50 to 59 years independently predicted greater decrease in dyspeptic symptoms. In the gastric body, smokers had milder inflammation and less atrophy and in the antrum denser H. pylori load. Smokers also had lower IgG antibody titres against H. pylori and a smaller proportional decrease in antibodies after successful eradication. Smoking tripled the risk of duodenal ulcers. Conclusions: in Finland H. pylori resistance to clarithromycin is low, but metronidazole resistance among women is high making metronidazole-based therapies unfavourable. Thus, LAC is the best choice for first-line eradication therapy. The effect of eradication on dyspeptic symptoms was only modest. Smoking slows the progression of atrophy in the gastric body.

Prognostic tumour markers in pancreatic cancer

Background. Pancreatic cancer is one of the major causes of cancer death in the industrialised world. The overall survival of patients with ductal pancreatic adenocarcinoma is poor: 5-year survival is only 0.2 to 4%. Tumour stage and histological grade are used as prognostic markers in pancreatic cancer. However, there are differences in survival within stages and histological grades. New, additional and more accurate prognostic tools are needed. Aims. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the tissue expression of potential and promising tumour markers p27, tenascin C, syndecan-1, COX-2 and MMP-2 are associated with clinicopathological parameters in pancreatic cancer. The expression of p27, tenascin C and syndecan-1 was also evaluated in acute and chronic pancreatitis. The main purpose in the study was to find new prognostic markers for pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Patients. The study included 147 patients with histologically verified pancreatic adenocarcinoma treated at Helsinki University Central Hospital from 1974 to1998. Methods. The expression of tumour marker antigens was demonstrated by immunohistochemistry using monoclonal antibodies against p27, syndecan-1, tenascin C, COX-2 and MMP-2. The results were compared with clinicopathological variables, i.e. age, sex, TNM stage and histological grade. Survival analyses were performed with univariate Kaplan-Meier life-tables and the log-rank test, while multivariate analyses were performed using Cox regression. Results. Pancreatic adenocarcinomas expressed p27, syndecan-1, tenascin C, COX-2 and MMP-2 in 30, 94, 92, 36 and 50% of the samples, respectively. Loss of p27 expression was associated with poor prognosis in stage I and II pancreatic cancer. Stromal syndecan-1 expression was an independent prognostic marker in pancreatic cancer, whereas epithelial syndecan-1 expression predicted better prognosis only in stage I and II disease. Tenascin C expression did not correlate with survival but was associated with differentiation. COX-2 expression was associated with poor outcome and was an independent prognostic factor. Epithelial MMP-2 correlated with poor prognosis in pancreatic cancer. Conclusion: p27 and epithelial syndecan-1 are prognostic markers in early (stage I and II) pancreatic cancer. Stromal syndecan-1, COX-2 and epithelial MMP-2 are prognostic factors in ductal pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

Studies of Earth Dynamics with the Superconducting Gravimeter

The superconducting (or cryogenic) gravimeter (SG) is based on the levitation of a super­conducting sphere in a stable magnetic field created by current in superconducting coils. Depending on frequency, it is capable of detecting gravity variations as small as 10-11ms-2. For a single event, the detection threshold is higher, conservatively about 10-9 ms-2. Due to its high sensitivity and low drift rate, the SG is eminently suitable for the study of geodynamical phenomena through their gravity signatures. I present investigations of Earth dynamics with the superconducting gravimeter GWR T020 at Metsähovi from 1994 to 2005. The history and key technical details of the installation are given. The data processing methods and the development of the local tidal model at Metsähovi are presented. The T020 is a part of the worldwide GGP (Global Geodynamics Project) network, which consist of 20 working station. The data of the T020 and of other participating SGs are available to the scientific community. The SG T020 have used as a long-period seismometer to study microseismicity and the Earth s free oscillation. The annual variation, spectral distribution, amplitude and the sources of microseism at Metsähovi were presented. Free oscillations excited by three large earthquakes were analyzed: the spectra, attenuation and rotational splitting of the modes. The lowest modes of all different oscillation types are studied, i.e. the radial mode 0S0, the "football mode" 0S2, and the toroidal mode 0T2. The very low level (0.01 nms-1) incessant excitation of the Earth s free oscillation was detected with the T020. The recovery of global and regional variations in gravity with the SG requires the modelling of local gravity effects. The most important of them is hydrology. The variation in the groundwater level at Metsähovi as measured in a borehole in the fractured bedrock correlates significantly (0.79) with gravity. The influence of local precipitation, soil moisture and snow cover are detectable in the gravity record. The gravity effect of the variation in atmospheric mass and that of the non-tidal loading by the Baltic Sea were investigated together, as sea level and air pressure are correlated. Using Green s functions it was calculated that a 1 metre uniform layer of water in the Baltic Sea increases the gravity at Metsähovi by 31 nms-2 and the vertical deformation is -11 mm. The regression coefficient for sea level is 27 nms-2m-1, which is 87% of the uniform model. These studies are associated with temporal height variations using the GPS data of Metsähovi permanent station. Results of long time series at Metsähovi demonstrated high quality of data and correctly carried out offsets and drift corrections. The superconducting gravimeter T020 has been proved to be an eminent and versatile tool in studies of the Earth dynamics.

Studies on Binary Time Series Models with Applications to Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance

This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.

Oral health and menopause

Hormone therapy (HT) is widely used to relieve climacteric symptoms in order to increase the well-being of the women. The benefits as well as side-effects of HT are well documented. The principal menopausal oral symptoms are dry mouth (DM) and sensation of painful mouth (PM) due to various causes. Profile studies have indicated that HT users are more health-conscious than non-users. The hypothesis of the present study was that there are differences in oral health between woman using HT and those not using HT. A questionnaire study of 3173 women of menopausal age (50-58 years old) was done to investigate the prevalence of self-assessed sensations of PM and DM. Of those women participating in the questionnaire study, a random sample of 400 (200 using, 200 not using HT) was examined clinically in a 2-year follow-up study. Oral status was recorded according to WHO methods using DMFT and CPITN indices. The saliva flows were measured, salivary total protein, albumin and immunoglobulin concentrations and selected periodontal micro-organisms were analysed, and panoramic tomography of the jaws was taken. The patients filled in a structured questionnaire on their systemic health, medication and health habits. According to our questionnaire study there was no significant difference in the occurrence of self- assessed PM or DM between the HT users and non-users. According to logistic regression analyses, climacteric complaints significantly correlated with the occurrence of PM (p=0.000) and DM (p=0.000) irrespective of the use of HT, indicating that PM and DM are associated with climacteric symptoms in general. There was no difference between the groups in DMFT index values at follow up. The number of filled teeth (FT) showed a significant (p<0.05) increase in the HT group at follow-up. Periodontitis was diagnosed in 79% of HT users at baseline and in 71% at the follow-up. The values for non-HT users were 80% vs. 76%, respectively (Ns.). The mean numbers of ≥ 6 mm deep periodontal pockets were 0.9 ± 1.7 at baseline vs. 1.1 ± 2.1 two years later in the HT group, and 1.0 ± 1.7 vs. 1.2 ± 1.9, respectively, in the non-HT group. In a large Finnish national health survey, the prevalence of peridontitis of women of this age group was lower, but the prevalence of severe periodontitis seemed to be higher than in our study. Salivary albumin, IgG and IgM concentrations decreased in the HT group during the 2-year follow up (p<0.05), possibly indicating an improvement in epithelial integrity. No difference was found in any other salivary parameters or in the prevalence of the periodontal bacteria between or within the groups. In conclusion, the present findings showed that 50 to 58 year old women living in Helsinki have fairly good oral and dental health. The occurrence of PM and DM seemed to be associated with climacteric symptoms in general, and the use of HT did not affect the oral symptoms studied.