Antarctic ice shelf melting and its impact on the global sea ice-ocean system

Earth s ice shelves are mainly located in Antarctica. They cover about 44% of the Antarctic coastline and are a salient feature of the continent. Antarctic ice shelf melting (AISM) removes heat from and inputs freshwater into the adjacent Southern Ocean. Although playing an important role in the global climate, AISM is one of the most important components currently absent in the IPCC climate model. In this study, AISM is introduced into a global sea ice-ocean climate model ORCA2-LIM, following the approach of Beckmann and Goosse (2003; BG03) for the thermodynamic interaction between the ice shelf and ocean. This forms the model ORCA2-LIM-ISP (ISP: ice shelf parameterization), in which not only all the major Antarctic ice shelves but also a number of minor ice shelves are included. Using these two models, ORCA2-LIM and ORCA2-LIM-ISP, the impact of addition of AISM and increasing AISM have been investigated. Using the ORCA2-LIM model, numerical experiments are performed to investigate the sensitivity of the polar sea ice cover and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport through Drake Passage (DP) to the variations of three sea ice parameters, namely the thickness of newly formed ice in leads (h0), the compressive strength of ice (P*), and the turning angle in the oceanic boundary layer beneath sea ice (θ). It is found that the magnitudes of h0 and P* have little impact on the seasonal sea ice extent, but lead to large changes in the seasonal sea ice volume. The variation in turning angle has little impact on the sea ice extent and volume in the Arctic but tends to reduce them in the Antarctica when ignored. The magnitude of P* has the least impact on the DP transport, while the other two parameters have much larger influences. Numerical results from ORCA2-LIM and ORCA2-LIM-ISP are analyzed to investigate how the inclusion of AISM affects the representation of the Southern Ocean hydrography. Comparisons with data from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) show that the addition of AISM significantly improves the simulated hydrography. It not only warms and freshens the originally too cold and too saline bottom water (AABW), but also warms and enriches the salinity of the originally too cold and too fresh warm deep water (WDW). Addition of AISM also improves the simulated stratification. The close agreement between the simulation with AISM and the observations suggests that the applied parameterization is an adequate way to include the effect of AISM in a global sea ice-ocean climate model. We also investigate the models capability to represent the sea ice-ocean system in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic regions. Our study shows both models (with and without AISM) can successfully reproduce the main features of the sea ice-ocean system. However, both tend to overestimate the ice flux through the Nares Strait, produce a lower temperature and salinity in the Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, and miss the deep convection in the Labrador Sea. These deficiencies are mainly attributed to the artificial enlargement of the Nares Strait in the model. In this study, the impact of increasing AISM on the global sea ice-ocean system is thoroughly investigated. This provides a first idea regarding changes induced by increasing AISM. It is shown that the impact of increasing AISM is global and most significant in the Southern Ocean. There, increasing AISM tends to freshen the surface water, to warm the intermediate and deep waters, and to freshen and warm the bottom water. In addition, increasing AISM also leads to changes in the mixed layer depths (MLD) in the deep convection sites in the Southern Ocean, deepening in the Antarctic continental shelf while shoaling in the ACC region. Furthermore, increasing AISM influences the current system in the Southern Ocean. It tends to weaken the ACC, and strengthen the Antarctic coastal current (ACoC) as well as the Weddell Gyre and the Ross Gyre. In addition to the ocean system, increasing AISM also has a notable impact on the Antarctic sea ice cover. Due to the cooling of seawater, sea ice concentration and thickness generally become higher. In austral winter, noticeable increases in sea ice concentration mainly take place near the ice edge. In regards with sea ice thickness, large increases are mainly found along the coast of the Weddell Sea, the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas, and the Ross Sea. The overall thickening of sea ice leads to a larger volume of sea ice in Antarctica. In the North Atlantic, increasing AISM leads to remarkable changes in temperature, salinity and density. The water generally becomes warmer, more saline and denser. The most significant warming occurs in the subsurface layer. In contrast, the maximum salinity increase is found at the surface. In addition, the MLD becomes larger along the Greenland-Scotland-Iceland ridge. Global teleconnections due to AISM are studied. The AISM signal is transported with the surface current: the additional freshwater from AISM tends to enhance the northward spreading of the surface water. As a result, more warm and saline water is transported from the tropical region to the North Atlantic Ocean, resulting in warming and salt enrichment there. It would take about 30 40 years to establish a systematic noticeable change in temperature, salinity and MLD in the North Atlantic Ocean according to this study. The changes in hydrography due to increasing AISM are compared with observations. Consistency suggests that increasing AISM is highly likely a major contributor to the recent observed changes in the Southern Ocean. In addition, the AISM might contribute to the salinity contrast between the North Atlantic and North Pacific, which is important for the global thermohaline circulation.

From the river to the open sea - a critical life phase of young Atlantic salmon migrating from the Simojoki river

Long-term monitoring data collected from wild smolts of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the Simojoki river, northern Finland, were used in studying the relationships between the smolt size and age, smolt and postsmolt migration, environmental conditions and postsmolt survival. The onset of the smolt run was significantly dependent on the rising water temperature and decreasing discharge of the river in the spring. The mean length of smolts migrating early in the season was commonly higher and the mean age always older than among smolts migrating later. Many of the smolts migrating early in the season and almost all smolts migrating later had started their new growth in spring in the river before their sea entry. Among postsmolts, the time required for emigration from the estuary was dependent on the sea surface temperature (SST) off the river, being significantly shorter in years with warm than cold sea temperatures. After leaving the estuary, the postsmolts migrated southwards along the eastern coast of the northern Gulf of Bothnia, the geographical distribution of the tag recoveries coinciding with the warm thermal zone in spring in the coastal area. After arriving in the southern Gulf of Bothnia in late summer the postsmolts mostly migrated near the western coast, reaching the Baltic Main Basin in late autumn. Until the early 1990s there was only a weak positive association between smolt length and postsmolt survival. However, following a subsequent decrease in the mean smolt size, a significant positive dependence was observed between smolt size and the reported recapture rate of tagged salmon. The differences in recapture rates between smolts tagged during the first and second half of the annual migration season were insignificant, indicating that the seasonal variation in smolt size and age seem to be too small to affect survival. Among the climatic factors examined, the summer SST in the Gulf of Bothnia was most clearly related to the survival of the wild postsmolts. Postsmolt survival appeared to be highest in years when the SST in June in the Bothnian Bay varied between 9 and 12 ºC. In addition, the survival of wild postsmolts showed a significant positive dependence on the SST in July in the Bothnian Sea, but not on the abundance of the prey fish (0+ herring, Clupea harengus and sprat, Sprattus sprattus) in the Bothnian Sea and in the Baltic Main Basin. The results suggest, that if the incidence of extreme weather conditions were to increase due to climatic changes, it would probably reduce the postsmolt survival of wild salmon populations. For improving the performance of hatchery-reared smolts, it could be useful to examine opportunities to produce smolts that are in their smolt traits and abilities more similar to the wild smolts described in this thesis.

Coastal environmental gradients – Key to reproduction habitat mapping of freshwater fish in the Baltic Sea

Habitat requirements of fish are most strict during the early life stages, and the quality and quantity of reproduction habitats lays the basis for fish production. A considerable number of fish species in the northern Baltic Sea reproduce in the shallow coastal areas, which are also the most heavily exploited parts of the brackish marine area. However, the coastal fish reproduction habitats in the northern Baltic Sea are poorly known. The studies presented in this thesis focused on the influence of environmental conditions on the distribution of coastal reproduction habitats of freshwater fish. They were conducted in vegetated littoral zone along an exposure and salinity gradient extending from the innermost bays to the outer archipelago on the south-western and southern coasts of Finland, in the northern Baltic Sea. Special emphasis was placed on reed-covered Phragmites australis shores, which form a dominant vegetation type in several coastal archipelago areas. The main aims of this research were to (1) develop and test new survey and mapping methods, (2) investigate the environmental requirements that govern the reproduction of freshwater fish in the coastal area and (3) survey, map and model the distribution of the reproduction habitats of pike (Esox lucius) and roach (Rutilus rutilus). The white plate and scoop method with a standardized sampling time and effort was demonstrated to be a functional method for sampling the early life stages of fish in dense vegetation and shallow water. Reed-covered shores were shown to form especially important reproduction habitats for several freshwater fish species, such as pike, roach, other cyprinids and burbot, in the northern Baltic Sea. The reproduction habitats of pike were limited to sheltered reed- and moss-covered shores of the inner and middle archipelago, where suitable zooplankton prey were available and the influence of the open sea was low. The reproduction habitats of roach were even more limited and roach reproduction was successful only in the very sheltered reed-covered shores of the innermost bay areas, where salinity remained low (< 4‰) during the spawning season due to freshwater inflow. After identifying the critical factors restricting the reproduction of pike and roach, the spatial distribution of their reproduction habitats was successfully mapped and modelled along the environmental gradients using only a few environmental predictor variables. Reproduction habitat maps are a valuable tool promoting the sustainable use and management of exploited coastal areas and helping to maintain the sustainability of fish populations. However, the large environmental gradients and the extensiveness of the archipelago zone in the northern Baltic Sea demand an especially high spatial resolution of the coastal predictor variables. Therefore, the current lack of accurate large-scale, high-resolution spatial data gathered at exactly the right time is a considerable limitation for predictive modelling of shallow coastal waters.

Environmental factors and uncertainty in fisheries management in the northern Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is a geologically young, large brackish water basin, and few of the species living there have fully adapted to its special conditions. Many of the species live on the edge of their distribution range in terms of one or more environmental variables such as salinity or temperature. Environmental fluctuations are know to cause fluctuations in populations abundance, and this effect is especially strong near the edges of the distribution range, where even small changes in an environmental variable can be critical to the success of a species. This thesis examines which environmental factors are the most important in relation to the success of various commercially exploited fish species in the northern Baltic Sea. It also examines the uncertainties related to fish stocks current and potential status as well as to their relationship with their environment. The aim is to quantify the uncertainties related to fisheries and environmental management, to find potential management strategies that can be used to reduce uncertainty in management results and to develop methodology related to uncertainty estimation in natural resources management. Bayesian statistical methods are utilized due to their ability to treat uncertainty explicitly in all parts of the statistical model. The results show that uncertainty about important parameters of even the most intensively studied fish species such as salmon (Salmo salar L.) and Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras L.) is large. On the other hand, management approaches that reduce uncertainty can be found. These include utilising information about ecological similarity of fish stocks and species, and using management variables that are directly related to stock parameters that can be measured easily and without extrapolations or assumptions.

Photobiological studies of Baltic Sea phytoplankton

Phytoplankton ecology and productivity is one of the main branches of contemporary oceanographic research. Research groups in this branch have increasingly started to utilise bio-optical applications. My main research objective was to critically investigate the advantages and deficiencies of the fast repetition rate (FRR) fluorometry for studies of productivity of phytoplankton, and the responses of phytoplankton towards varying environmental stress. Second, I aimed to clarify the applicability of the FRR system to the optical environment of the Baltic Sea. The FRR system offers a highly dynamic tool for studies of phytoplankton photophysiology and productivity both in the field and in a controlled environment. The FRR metrics obtain high-frequency in situ determinations of the light-acclimative and photosynthetic parameters of intact phytoplankton communities. The measurement protocol is relatively easy to use without phases requiring analytical determinations. The most notable application of the FRR system lies in its potential for making primary productivity (PP) estimations. However, the realisation of this scheme is not straightforward. The FRR-PP, based on the photosynthetic electron flow (PEF) rate, are linearly related to the photosynthetic gas exchange (fixation of 14C) PP only in environments where the photosynthesis is light-limited. If the light limitation is not present, as is usually the case in the near-surface layers of the water column, the two PP approaches will deviate. The prompt response of the PEF rate to the short-term variability in the natural light field makes the field comparisons between the PEF-PP and the 14C-PP difficult to interpret, because this variability is averaged out in the 14C-incubations. Furthermore, the FRR based PP models are tuned to closely follow the vertical pattern of the underwater irradiance. Due to the photoacclimational plasticity of phytoplankton, this easily leads to overestimates of water column PP, if precautionary measures are not taken. Natural phytoplankton is subject to broad-waveband light. Active non-spectral bio-optical instruments, like the FRR fluorometer, emit light in a relatively narrow waveband, which by its nature does not represent the in situ light field. Thus, the spectrally-dependent parameters provided by the FRR system need to be spectrally scaled to the natural light field of the Baltic Sea. In general, the requirement of spectral scaling in the water bodies under terrestrial impact concerns all light-adaptive parameters provided by any active non-spectral bio-optical technique. The FRR system can be adopted to studies of all phytoplankton that possess efficient light harvesting in the waveband matching the bluish FRR excitation. Although these taxa cover the large bulk of all the phytoplankton taxa, one exception with a pronounced ecological significance is found in the Baltic Sea. The FRR system cannot be used to monitor the photophysiology of the cyanobacterial taxa harvesting light in the yellow-red waveband. These taxa include the ecologically-significant bloom-forming cyanobacterial taxa in the Baltic Sea.

Seasonal variation in nitrification and nitrate-reduction pathways in coastal sediments in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is one of the most eutrophic marine areas in the world. The role of nitrogen as a eutrophicating nutrient in the Baltic Sea has remained controversial, due to lack of understanding of nitrogen cycling in the area. We investigated the seasonal variation in sediment nitrification, denitrification, anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox), and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) at two coastal sites in the Gulf of Finland. In addition to the in situ rates, we assessed the potential for these processes in different seasons. The nitrification and nitrogen removal processes were maximal during the warm summer months, when the sediment organic content was highest. In colder seasons, the in situ rates of the nitrification and nitrate reduction processes decreased, but the potential for nitrification remained equal to or higher than that during the warm months. The denitrification and nitrification rates were usually higher in the accumulation basin, where the organic content of the sediment was higher, but the transportation area, despite lower denitrification rates and potential, typically had higher potential for nitrification than the accumulation basin. Anammox and DNRA were not significant nitrate sinks in any of the seasons sampled. The results also show that the denitrification rates in the coastal Gulf of Finland sediment have decreased, and that benthic denitrification might be a less important sink for fixed nitrogen than previously assumed.

Optimal multispecies fishery management in the Baltic Sea: A bioeconomic analysis

The aim of the thesis is to assess the fishery of Baltic cod, herring and sprat by simulation over 50 years time period. We form a bioeconomic multispecies model for the species. We include species interactions into the model because especially cod and sprat stocks have significant effects on each other. We model the development of population dynamics, catches and profits of the fishery with current fishing mortalities, as well as with the optimal profit maximizing fishing mortalities. Thus, we see how the fishery would develop with current mortalities, and how the fishery should be developed in order to yield maximal profits. Especially cod stock has been quite low recently and by optimizing the fishing mortality it could get recovered. In addition, we assess what would happen to the fisheries of the species if more favourable environmental conditions for cod recruitment dominate in the Baltic Sea. The results may yield new information for the fisheries management. According to the results the fishery of Baltic cod, herring and sprat are not at the most profitable level. The fishing mortalities of each species should be lower in order to maximize the profits. By fishing mortality optimizing the net present value would be almost three times higher in the simulation period. The lower fishing mortality of cod would result in a cod stock recovery. If the environmental conditions in the Baltic Sea improved, cod stock would recover even without a decrease in the fishing mortality. Then the increased cod stock would restrict herring and sprat stock remarkably, and harvesting of these species would not be as profitable anymore.