Feasibility of assimilating ASCAT surface winds into a Limited Area Model

Sea-surface wind observations of previous generation scatterometers have been successfully assimilated into Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Impact studies conducted with these assimilation implementations have shown a distinct improvement to model analysis and forecast accuracies. The Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), flown on Metop-A, offers an improved sea-surface wind accuracy and better data coverage when compared to the previous generation scatterometers. Five individual case studies are carried out. The effect of including ASCAT data into High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) assimilation system (4D-Var) is tested to be neutral-positive for situations with general flow direction from the Atlantic Ocean. For northerly flow regimes the effect is negative. This is later discussed to be caused by problems involving modeling northern flows, and also due to the lack of a suitable verification method. Suggestions and an example of an improved verification method is presented later on. A closer examination of a polar low evolution is also shown. It is found that the ASCAT assimilation scheme improves forecast of the initial evolution of the polar low, but the model advects the strong low pressure centre too fast eastward. Finally, the flaws of the implementation are found small and implementing the ASCAT assimilation scheme into the operational HIRLAM suite is feasible, but longer time period validation is still required.

Towards the Use of Radar Winds in Numerical Weather Prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models provide the basis for weather forecasting by simulating the evolution of the atmospheric state. A good forecast requires that the initial state of the atmosphere is known accurately, and that the NWP model is a realistic representation of the atmosphere. Data assimilation methods are used to produce initial conditions for NWP models. The NWP model background field, typically a short-range forecast, is updated with observations in a statistically optimal way. The objective in this thesis has been to develope methods in order to allow data assimilation of Doppler radar radial wind observations. The work has been carried out in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) 3-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Observation modelling is a key element in exploiting indirect observations of the model variables. In the radar radial wind observation modelling, the vertical model wind profile is interpolated to the observation location, and the projection of the model wind vector on the radar pulse path is calculated. The vertical broadening of the radar pulse volume, and the bending of the radar pulse path due to atmospheric conditions are taken into account. Radar radial wind observations are modelled within observation errors which consist of instrumental, modelling, and representativeness errors. Systematic and random modelling errors can be minimized by accurate observation modelling. The impact of the random part of the instrumental and representativeness errors can be decreased by calculating spatial averages from the raw observations. Model experiments indicate that the spatial averaging clearly improves the fit of the radial wind observations to the model in terms of observation minus model background (OmB) standard deviation. Monitoring the quality of the observations is an important aspect, especially when a new observation type is introduced into a data assimilation system. Calculating the bias for radial wind observations in a conventional way can result in zero even in case there are systematic differences in the wind speed and/or direction. A bias estimation method designed for this observation type is introduced in the thesis. Doppler radar radial wind observation modelling, together with the bias estimation method, enables the exploitation of the radial wind observations also for NWP model validation. The one-month model experiments performed with the HIRLAM model versions differing only in a surface stress parameterization detail indicate that the use of radar wind observations in NWP model validation is very beneficial.

Wind drift of snowfall between the radar volume and ground

This study evaluates how the advection of precipitation, or wind drift, between the radar volume and ground affects radar measurements of precipitation. Normally precipitation is assumed to fall vertically to the ground from the contributing volume, and thus the radar measurement represents the geographical location immediately below. In this study radar measurements are corrected using hydrometeor trajectories calculated from measured and forecasted winds, and the effect of trajectory-correction on the radar measurements is evaluated. Wind drift statistics for Finland are compiled using sounding data from two weather stations spanning two years. For each sounding, the hydrometeor phase at ground level is estimated and drift distance calculated using different originating level heights. This way the drift statistics are constructed as a function of range from radar and elevation angle. On average, wind drift of 1 km was exceeded at approximately 60 km distance, while drift of 10 km was exceeded at 100 km distance. Trajectories were calculated using model winds in order to produce a trajectory-corrected ground field from radar PPI images. It was found that at the upwind side from the radar the effective measuring area was reduced as some trajectories exited the radar volume scan. In the downwind side areas near the edge of the radar measuring area experience improved precipitation detection. The effect of trajectory-correction is most prominent in instant measurements and diminishes when accumulating over longer time periods. Furthermore, measurements of intensive and small scale precipitation patterns benefit most from wind drift correction. The contribution of wind drift on the uncertainty of estimated Ze (S) - relationship was studied by simulating the effect of different error sources to the uncertainty in the relationship coefficients a and b. The overall uncertainty was assumed to consist of systematic errors of both the radar and the gauge, as well as errors by turbulence at the gauge orifice and by wind drift of precipitation. The focus of the analysis is error associated with wind drift, which was determined by describing the spatial structure of the reflectivity field using spatial autocovariance (or variogram). This spatial structure was then used with calculated drift distances to estimate the variance in radar measurement produced by precipitation drift, relative to the other error sources. It was found that error by wind drift was of similar magnitude with error by turbulence at gauge orifice at all ranges from radar, with systematic errors of the instruments being a minor issue. The correction method presented in the study could be used in radar nowcasting products to improve the estimation of visibility and local precipitation intensities. The method however only considers pure snow, and for operational purposes some improvements are desirable, such as melting layer detection, VPR correction and taking solid state hydrometeor type into account, which would improve the estimation of vertical velocities of the hydrometeors.

Kristallivalheita : Itsepetos filosofisen tulkinnan lähtökohtana eräissä draaman klassikoissa

The philosophical problem of self-deception focuses the relation between desire, advantage, evidence and harm. A self-deceptive person is irrational because he or she belives or wants to belive contrary to the available evidence. The study focuses on different forms of self-deception that come out in certain classical Western dramas. The first self-deception forms are: "S knows that ~p but still belives that p because he wants that ~p", "S wants that p and therefore belives that p.", "S belives that p against evidence t because he wants to belive that p.", "S belives that p if t but S would belive that p even if ~t because S wants to belive that p.", "S belives that p (even if there is t that ~p) because S is ignorant of it." and "S belives that p (even if there is t that ~p) because of ignorant of t due to an internal deception." The main sources on self-deception are the views of contemporary researchers of the subject, such as Robert Audi, Marcia Baron, Bas C. van Fraassen, Mark Johnston, Mike W. Martin, Brian MaLaughlin, Alfred Mele, Amélie Oksenberg Rorty, William Ruddick and Stephen L. White. In this study it is claimed that Shakespeare´s Othello presents self-deception as a tragic phenomenom from witch it follows deceptions and murders. Moliére´s Tartuffe deals with a phony hypocrite´s attempts at cheating. Ibsen´s Wild Duck defends the necessity of vital lies. Beckett´s Waiting for Godot deals with the self-deception witch is related to the waiting of the supernatural rescuer. Miller´s The Death of a Salesman tells about a man who, while pursuing the American myth of success, winds both himself and his family into the skeins of self-deception. They are studied with a Barthesian method that emphasizes the autonomy of literary work and its interpretation independently of the author´s personal history and social conditions. Self-deception has been regarded as an immoral way of thinking or way of action. However, vital lies show the necessity or necessity of the self-deception when it brings joy and optimism to the human being and supports his or her self-esteem and does not cause a suffering or damage, either to self or others. In the study, the processual character of self-deception is brought out.

Snow characteristics in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

Snow cover is very sensitive to climate change and has a large feedback effect on the climate system due to the high albedo. Snow covers almost all surfaces in Antarctica and small changes in snow properties can mean large changes in absorbed radiation. In the ongoing discussion of climatic change, the mass balance of Antarctica has received increasing focus during recent decades, since its reaction to global warming strongly influences sea-level change. The aim of the present work was to examine the spatial and temporal variations in the physical and chemical characteristics of surface snow and annual accumulation rates in western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. The data were collected along a 350-km-long transect from the coast to the plateau during the years 1999-2004 as a part of the Finnish Antarctic Research Programme (FINNARP). The research focused on the most recent annual accumulation in the coastal area. The results show that the distance from the sea, and the moisture source, was the most predominant factor controlling the variations in both physical (conductivity, grain size, oxygen isotope ratio and accumulation) and chemical snow properties. The sea-salt and sulphur-containing components predominated in the coastal region. The local influences of nunataks and topographic highs were also visible on snow. The variations in all measured properties were wide within single sites mostly due to redistribution by winds and sastrugi topography, which reveals the importance of the spatially representative measurements. The mean accumulations occurred on the ice shelf, in the coastal region and on the plateau: 312 ± 28, 215 ± 43 and 92 ± 25 mm w.e., respectively. Depth hoar layers were usually found under the thin ice crust and were associated with a low dielectric constant and high concentrations of nitrate. Taking into account the vast size of the Antarctic ice sheet and its geographic characteristics, it is important to extend investigation of the distribution of surface snow properties and accumulation to provide well-documented data.

Investigations of planetary boundary layer processes and particle formation in the atmosphere of planet Mars

The planet Mars is the Earth's neighbour in the Solar System. Planetary research stems from a fundamental need to explore our surroundings, typical for mankind. Manned missions to Mars are already being planned, and understanding the environment to which the astronauts would be exposed is of utmost importance for a successful mission. Information of the Martian environment given by models is already now used in designing the landers and orbiters sent to the red planet. In particular, studies of the Martian atmosphere are crucial for instrument design, entry, descent and landing system design, landing site selection, and aerobraking calculations. Research of planetary atmospheres can also contribute to atmospheric studies of the Earth via model testing and development of parameterizations: even after decades of modeling the Earth's atmosphere, we are still far from perfect weather predictions. On a global level, Mars has also been experiencing climate change. The aerosol effect is one of the largest unknowns in the present terrestrial climate change studies, and the role of aerosol particles in any climate is fundamental: studies of climate variations on another planet can help us better understand our own global change. In this thesis I have used an atmospheric column model for Mars to study the behaviour of the lowest layer of the atmosphere, the planetary boundary layer (PBL), and I have developed nucleation (particle formation) models for Martian conditions. The models were also coupled to study, for example, fog formation in the PBL. The PBL is perhaps the most significant part of the atmosphere for landers and humans, since we live in it and experience its state, for example, as gusty winds, nightfrost, and fogs. However, PBL modelling in weather prediction models is still a difficult task. Mars hosts a variety of cloud types, mainly composed of water ice particles, but also CO2 ice clouds form in the very cold polar night and at high altitudes elsewhere. Nucleation is the first step in particle formation, and always includes a phase transition. Cloud crystals on Mars form from vapour to ice on ubiquitous, suspended dust particles. Clouds on Mars have a small radiative effect in the present climate, but it may have been more important in the past. This thesis represents an attempt to model the Martian atmosphere at the smallest scales with high resolution. The models used and developed during the course of the research are useful tools for developing and testing parameterizations for larger-scale models all the way up to global climate models, since the small-scale models can describe processes that in the large-scale models are reduced to subgrid (not explicitly resolved) scale.

Alternative News Sources as 'Collaboratory' Journalism. A case study of Helsingin Sanomat and its relation with the Youth Voice Editorial Board

The new paradigm of connectedness and empowerment brought by the interactivity feature of the Web 2.0 has been challenging the traditional centralized performance of mainstream media. The corporation has been able to survive the strong winds by transforming itself into a global multimedia business network embedded in the network society. By establishing networks, e.g. networks of production and distribution, the global multimedia business network has been able to sight potential solutions by opening the doors to innovation in a decentralized and flexible manner. Under this emerging context of re-organization, traditional practices like sourcing need to be re- explained and that is precisely what this thesis attempts to tackle. Based on ICT and on the network society, the study seeks to explain within the Finnish context the particular case of Helsingin Sanomat (HS) and its relations with the youth news agency, Youth Voice Editorial Board (NÄT). In that sense, the study can be regarded as an explanatory embedded single case study, where HS is the principal unit of analysis and NÄT its embedded unit of analysis. The thesis was able to reach explanations through interrelated steps. First, it determined the role of ICT in HS’s sourcing practices. Then it mapped an overview of the HS’s sourcing relations and provided a context in which NÄT was located. And finally, it established conceptualized institutional relational data between HS and NÄT for their posterior measurement through social network analysis. The data set was collected via qualitative interviews addressed to online and offline editors of HS as well as interviews addressed to NÄT’s personnel. The study concluded that ICT’s interactivity and User Generated Content (UGC) are not sourcing tools as such but mechanism used by HS for getting ideas that could turn into potential news stories. However, when it comes to visual communication, some exemptions were found. The lack of official sources amidst the immediacy leads HS to rely on ICT’s interaction and UGC. More than meets the eye, ICT’s input into the sourcing practice may be more noticeable if the interaction and UGC is well organized and coordinated into proper and innovative networks of alternative content collaboration. Currently, HS performs this sourcing practice via two projects that differ, precisely, by the mode they are coordinated. The first project found, Omakaupunki, is coordinated internally by Sanoma Group’s owned media houses HS, Vartti and Metro. The second project found is coordinated externally. The external alternative sourcing network, as it was labeled, consists of three actors, namely HS, NÄT (professionals in charge) and the youth. This network is a balanced and complete triad in which the actors connect themselves in relations of feedback, recognition, creativity and filtering. However, as innovation is approached very reluctantly, this content collaboration is a laboratory of experiments; a ‘COLLABORATORY’.

3D MHD simulations of subsurface convection in OB stars

During their main sequence evolution, massive stars can develop convective regions very close to their surface. These regions are caused by an opacity peak associated with iron ionization. Cantiello et al. (2009) found a possible connection between the presence of sub-photospheric convective motions and small scale stochastic velocities in the photosphere of early-type stars. This supports a physical mechanism where microturbulence is caused by waves that are triggered by subsurface convection zones. They further suggest that clumping in the inner parts of the winds of OB stars could be related to subsurface convection, and that the convective layers may also be responsible for stochastic excitation of non-radial pulsations. Furthermore, magnetic fields produced in the iron convection zone could appear at the surface of such massive stars. Therefore subsurface convection could be responsible for the occurrence of observable phenomena such as line profile variability and discrete absorption components. These phenomena have been observed for decades, but still evade a clear theoretical explanation. Here we present preliminary results from 3D MHD simulations of such subsurface convection.