Livelihood, land use and environment interactions in the highlands of East Africa

This study aims at improving understanding of the interactions of livelihoods and the environment focusing on both socio-economic and biodiversity implications of land use change in the context of population pressure, global and local markets, climate change, cultural and regional historical factors in the highlands of East Africa. The study is based on three components (1) two extensive livelihood surveys, one on Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania and the other in the Taita Hills of Kenya, (2) a land use change study of the southern slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro focusing on land use trends between 1960s and 1980s and 1980s and 2000 and (3) a bird diversity study focusing on the potential impacts of the future land use change on birds in the main land use types on the slopes and the adjacent plains of Mt. Kilimanjaro. In addition, information on the highlands in Embu and the adjacent lowlands in Mbeere of Kenya are added to the discussion. Some general patterns of livelihood, land use and environment interactions can be found in the three sites. However, the linkages are very complex. Various external factors at different times in history have influenced most of the major turning points. Farmers continually make small adaptations to their farming practices, but the locally conceived alternatives are too few. Farmers lack specific information and knowledge on the most suitable crops, market opportunities and the quality requirements for growing the crops for markets. Population growth emerges as the most forceful driver of land use and environmental change. The higher altitudes have become extremely crowded with population densities in some areas higher than typical urban population densities. Natural vegetation has almost totally been replaced by farmland. Decreasing farm size due to population pressure is currently threatening the viability of whole farming systems. In addition, capital-poor intensification has lead to soil fertility depletion. Agricultural expansion to the agriculturally marginal lowlands has created a new and distinct group of farmers struggling constantly with climate variability causing frequent crop failures. Extensification to the fragile drylands is the major cause of fragmentation and loss of wildlife habitat. The linkages between livelihoods, land use and the environment generally point to degradation of the environment leading to reduced environmental services and ecosystem functions. There is no indication that the system is self-regulating in this respect. Positive interventions will be needed to maintain ecosystem integrity.

Maximum Loss Calculation using Scenario Analysis, Heavy Tails and Implied Volatility Patterns

The objective of this paper is to improve option risk monitoring by examining the information content of implied volatility and by introducing the calculation of a single-sum expected risk exposure similar to the Value-at-Risk. The figure is calculated in two steps. First, there is a need to estimate the value of a portfolio of options for a number of different market scenarios, while the second step is to summarize the information content of the estimated scenarios into a single-sum risk measure. This involves the use of probability theory and return distributions, which confronts the user with the problems of non-normality in the return distribution of the underlying asset. Here the hyperbolic distribution is used to describe one alternative for dealing with heavy tails. Results indicate that the information content of implied volatility is useful when predicting future large returns in the underlying asset. Further, the hyperbolic distribution provides a good fit to historical returns enabling a more accurate definition of statistical intervals and extreme events.

Critical leg ischaemia with tissue loss : a challenge for the vascular surgeon

There is a widespread reporting habit of combining the outcomes for patients with rest pain (Fontaine III) and tissue loss (Fontaine IV) under the single category of critical leg ischaemia (CLI). This study focused on patients with ischaemic tissue loss treated with infrainguinal bypass surgery (IBS). All patients included in the study were treated at Helsinki University Central Hospital in 2000-2007. First, ulcer healing time after IBS and factors influencing healing time were prospectively assessed in 2 studies including 148 and 110 patients, respectively. Second,the results of redo IBS were retrospectively evaluated in 593 patients undergoing primary IBS for CLI with tissue loss . Third,long-term outcome were retrospectively analysed in 636 patients who underwent IBS for CLI with tissue loss . Fourth, the outcome of IBS was retrospectively compared with endovascular treatment (PTA) of the infrapopliteal arteries in 1023 CLI patients. Fifth, the influence multidrug resistant Pseudomans aeruginosa (MDR Pa) bacteria contamination in CLI patients treated with IBS was retropectively assessed. Sixty-four patients with positive MDR Pa -culture were matched with 64 MDR Pa - negative controls. Complete ulcer healing rate, including the ischemic ulcers and incisional wounds, was 40% at 6 months after IBS and 75% at one year. Diabetes was a risk factor for prolonged complete ulcer healing time. Ischaemic tissue lesions located in mid-and hindfoot healed poorly. At one year after IBS 50% of the patients were alive with salvaged leg and completely healed ulcers. The absence of gap between tertiary graft patency and leg salvage rates indicates the importance of a patent infrainguinal graft to save a leg with ischaemic tissue loss. Long-term survival for patients with ischaemic tissue loss was poor, 38% at 5 years. Only 30% of the patients were alive without amputation at 5 years. Several of the patient comorbidities increased independently the mortality risk; coronary artery disease, renal insufficiency, chronic obstructive lung disease and high age. When both PTA and bypass is feasible, infrapopliteal PTA as a first-line strategy is expected to achieve similar long-term results to bypass surgery in CLI when redo surgery is actively utilized. MDR Pa in a patient with CLI should be considered as a serious event with increased risk of early major amputation or death. Conclusion: Despite a successful infrainguinal bypass healing of the ischaemic ulcers and incisional wounds ulcer healing is a slow process especially in diabetics. Bypass surgery and PTA improve the outcome of the ischaemic leg but the mortality rate of the patients is high due to their severe comorbidities.