A Cointegration Approach to Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (summary section only)

Mikael Juselius’ doctoral dissertation covers a range of significant issues in modern macroeconomics by empirically testing a number of important theoretical hypotheses. The first essay presents indirect evidence within the framework of the cointegrated VAR model on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor by using Finnish manufacturing data. Instead of estimating the elasticity of substitution by using the first order conditions, he develops a new approach that utilizes a CES production function in a model with a 3-stage decision process: investment in the long run, wage bargaining in the medium run and price and employment decisions in the short run. He estimates the elasticity of substitution to be below one. The second essay tests the restrictions implied by the core equations of the New Keynesian Model (NKM) in a vector autoregressive model (VAR) by using both Euro area and U.S. data. Both the new Keynesian Phillips curve and the aggregate demand curve are estimated and tested. The restrictions implied by the core equations of the NKM are rejected on both U.S. and Euro area data. These results are important for further research. The third essay is methodologically similar to essay 2, but it concentrates on Finnish macro data by adopting a theoretical framework of an open economy. Juselius’ results suggests that the open economy NKM framework is too stylized to provide an adequate explanation for Finnish inflation. The final essay provides a macroeconometric model of Finnish inflation and associated explanatory variables and it estimates the relative importance of different inflation theories. His main finding is that Finnish inflation is primarily determined by excess demand in the product market and by changes in the long-term interest rate. This study is part of the research agenda carried out by the Research Unit of Economic Structure and Growth (RUESG). The aim of RUESG it to conduct theoretical and empirical research with respect to important issues in industrial economics, real option theory, game theory, organization theory, theory of financial systems as well as to study problems in labor markets, macroeconomics, natural resources, taxation and time series econometrics. RUESG was established at the beginning of 1995 and is one of the National Centers of Excellence in research selected by the Academy of Finland. It is financed jointly by the Academy of Finland, the University of Helsinki, the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, Bank of Finland and the Nokia Group. This support is gratefully acknowledged.

Turning the Kaleidoscope - (E)FL Educational Experience and Inquiry as Auto/biography

This book is a study on learning, teaching/counselling, and research on the two. My quest has been to find a pedagogically-motivated way of researching learning and teaching interaction, and in particular counselling, in an autonomous language-learning environment. I have tried to develop a method that would make room for lived experience, meaning-making and narrating, because in my view these all characterise learning encounters between language learners and counsellors, and learners and their peers. Lived experience as a source of meaning, telling and co-telling becomes especially significant when we try to listen to the diverse personal and academic voices of the past as expressed in autobiographical narratives. I have aimed at researching various ALMS dialogues (Autonomous Learning Modules, University of Helsinki Language Centre English course and programme), and autobiographical narratives within them, in a way that shows respect for the participants, and that is relevant, reflective and, most importantly, self-reflexive. My interest has been in autobiographical telling in (E)FL [(English as a) foreign language], both in students first-person written texts on their language- learning histories and in the sharing of stories between learners and a counsellor. I have turned to narrative inquiry in my quest and have written the thesis as an experiential narrative. In particular, I have studied learners and counsellors in one and the same story, as characters in one narrative, in an attempt to avoid the impression that I am telling yet another separate, anecdotal story, retrospectively. Through narrative, I have shed light on the subjective dimensions of language learning and experience, and have come closer to understanding the emotional aspects of learning encounters. I have questioned and rejected a distanced and objective approach to describing learning and teaching/counselling. I have argued for a holistic and experiential approach to (E)FL encounters in which there is a need to see emotion and cognition as intertwined, and thus to appreciate learners and counsellors emotionally-charged experiences as integral to their identities. I have also argued for a way of describing such encounters as they are situated in history, time, autobiography, and the learning context. I have turned my gaze on various constellations of lived experience: the data was collected on various occasions and in various settings during one course and consists of videotaped group sessions, individual counselling sessions between students and their group counsellor, biographic narrative interviews with myself, open-ended personally-inspired reflection texts written by the students about their language-learning histories, and student logs and diaries. I do not consider data collection an unproblematic occasion, or innocent practice, and I defend the integrity of the research process. Research writing cannot be separated from narrative field work and analysing and interpreting the data. The foci in my work have turned to be the following: 1) describing ALMS encounters and specifying their narrative aspects; 2) reconceptualising learner and teacher autonomy in ALMS and in (E)FL; 2) developing (E)FL methodologically through a teacher-researcher s identity work; 4) research writing as a dialogical narrative process, and the thesis as an experiential narrative. Identity and writing as inquiry, and the deeply narrative and autobiographical nature of the (E)FL teaching/counselling/researching have come to the fore in this research. Research writing as a relational activity and its implications for situated ways of knowing and knowledge turned out to be important foci. I have also focussed on the context-bound and local teacher knowledge and ways of knowing about being a teacher, and I have argued for personal ways of knowing about, and learning and studying foreign languages. I discuss research as auto/biography: as a practising counsellor I use my own life and (E)FL experience to understand and interpret the stories of the research participants even though I was not involved in their course work. The supposedly static binaries of learner/teacher, and also learner autonomy/teacher autonomy, are thus brought into the discussion. I have highlighted the infinite variability and ever-changing nature of learning and teaching English, but the book is also of relevance to foreign language education in general.

Composition operators on vector-valued BMOA and related function spaces

A composition operator is a linear operator between spaces of analytic or harmonic functions on the unit disk, which precomposes a function with a fixed self-map of the disk. A fundamental problem is to relate properties of a composition operator to the function-theoretic properties of the self-map. During the recent decades these operators have been very actively studied in connection with various function spaces. The study of composition operators lies in the intersection of two central fields of mathematical analysis; function theory and operator theory. This thesis consists of four research articles and an overview. In the first three articles the weak compactness of composition operators is studied on certain vector-valued function spaces. A vector-valued function takes its values in some complex Banach space. In the first and third article sufficient conditions are given for a composition operator to be weakly compact on different versions of vector-valued BMOA spaces. In the second article characterizations are given for the weak compactness of a composition operator on harmonic Hardy spaces and spaces of Cauchy transforms, provided the functions take values in a reflexive Banach space. Composition operators are also considered on certain weak versions of the above function spaces. In addition, the relationship of different vector-valued function spaces is analyzed. In the fourth article weighted composition operators are studied on the scalar-valued BMOA space and its subspace VMOA. A weighted composition operator is obtained by first applying a composition operator and then a pointwise multiplier. A complete characterization is given for the boundedness and compactness of a weighted composition operator on BMOA and VMOA. Moreover, the essential norm of a weighted composition operator on VMOA is estimated. These results generalize many previously known results about composition operators and pointwise multipliers on these spaces.

Joint Regression and Association Models for Repeated Categorical Responses

The focus of this study is on statistical analysis of categorical responses, where the response values are dependent of each other. The most typical example of this kind of dependence is when repeated responses have been obtained from the same study unit. For example, in Paper I, the response of interest is the pneumococcal nasopharengyal carriage (yes/no) on 329 children. For each child, the carriage is measured nine times during the first 18 months of life, and thus repeated respones on each child cannot be assumed independent of each other. In the case of the above example, the interest typically lies in the carriage prevalence, and whether different risk factors affect the prevalence. Regression analysis is the established method for studying the effects of risk factors. In order to make correct inferences from the regression model, the associations between repeated responses need to be taken into account. The analysis of repeated categorical responses typically focus on regression modelling. However, further insights can also be gained by investigating the structure of the association. The central theme in this study is on the development of joint regression and association models. The analysis of repeated, or otherwise clustered, categorical responses is computationally difficult. Likelihood-based inference is often feasible only when the number of repeated responses for each study unit is small. In Paper IV, an algorithm is presented, which substantially facilitates maximum likelihood fitting, especially when the number of repeated responses increase. In addition, a notable result arising from this work is the freely available software for likelihood-based estimation of clustered categorical responses.

Passive vector turbulence

This thesis consists of three articles on passive vector fields in turbulence. The vector fields interact with a turbulent velocity field, which is described by the Kraichnan model. The effect of the Kraichnan model on the passive vectors is studied via an equation for the pair correlation function and its solutions. The first paper is concerned with the passive magnetohydrodynamic equations. Emphasis is placed on the so called "dynamo effect", which in the present context is understood as an unbounded growth of the pair correlation function. The exact analytical conditions for such growth are found in the cases of zero and infinite Prandtl numbers. The second paper contains an extensive study of a number of passive vector models. Emphasis is now on the properties of the (assumed) steady state, namely anomalous scaling, anisotropy and small and large scale behavior with different types of forcing or stirring. The third paper is in many ways a completion to the previous one in its study of the steady state existence problem. Conditions for the existence of the steady state are found in terms of the spatial roughness parameter of the turbulent velocity field.

Generalised regression estimation for domain class frequencies

This study examines the properties of Generalised Regression (GREG) estimators for domain class frequencies and proportions. The family of GREG estimators forms the class of design-based model-assisted estimators. All GREG estimators utilise auxiliary information via modelling. The classic GREG estimator with a linear fixed effects assisting model (GREG-lin) is one example. But when estimating class frequencies, the study variable is binary or polytomous. Therefore logistic-type assisting models (e.g. logistic or probit model) should be preferred over the linear one. However, other GREG estimators than GREG-lin are rarely used, and knowledge about their properties is limited. This study examines the properties of L-GREG estimators, which are GREG estimators with fixed-effects logistic-type models. Three research questions are addressed. First, I study whether and when L-GREG estimators are more accurate than GREG-lin. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo experiments which cover both equal and unequal probability sampling designs and a wide variety of model formulations show that in standard situations, the difference between L-GREG and GREG-lin is small. But in the case of a strong assisting model, two interesting situations arise: if the domain sample size is reasonably large, L-GREG is more accurate than GREG-lin, and if the domain sample size is very small, estimation of assisting model parameters may be inaccurate, resulting in bias for L-GREG. Second, I study variance estimation for the L-GREG estimators. The standard variance estimator (S) for all GREG estimators resembles the Sen-Yates-Grundy variance estimator, but it is a double sum of prediction errors, not of the observed values of the study variable. Monte Carlo experiments show that S underestimates the variance of L-GREG especially if the domain sample size is minor, or if the assisting model is strong. Third, since the standard variance estimator S often fails for the L-GREG estimators, I propose a new augmented variance estimator (A). The difference between S and the new estimator A is that the latter takes into account the difference between the sample fit model and the census fit model. In Monte Carlo experiments, the new estimator A outperformed the standard estimator S in terms of bias, root mean square error and coverage rate. Thus the new estimator provides a good alternative to the standard estimator.

Part I: Enzyme replacement versus neurotrophic factor viral vector-mediated gene therapy of Parkinson’s disease, Part II: The effects of orally dosed tolcapone and entacapone on dopamine metabolism in the dorsal striatum and nucleus accumbens in rats

Part I: Parkinson’s disease is a slowly progressive neurodegenerative disorder in which particularly the dopaminergic neurons of the substantia nigra pars compacta degenerate and die. Current conventional treatment is based on restraining symptoms but it has no effect on the progression of the disease. Gene therapy research has focused on the possibility of restoring the lost brain function by at least two means: substitution of critical enzymes needed for the synthesis of dopamine and slowing down the progression of the disease by supporting the functions of the remaining nigral dopaminergic neurons by neurotrophic factors. The striatal levels of enzymes such as tyrosine hydroxylase, dopadecarboxylase and GTP-CH1 are decreased as the disease progresses. By replacing one or all of the enzymes, dopamine levels in the striatum may be restored to normal and behavioral impairments caused by the disease may be ameliorated especially in the later stages of the disease. The neurotrophic factors glial cell derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) and neurturin have shown to protect and restore functions of dopaminergic cell somas and terminals as well as improve behavior in animal lesion models. This therapy may be best suited at the early stages of the disease when there are more dopaminergic neurons for neurotrophic factors to reach. Viral vector-mediated gene transfer provides a tool to deliver proteins with complex structures into specific brain locations and provides long-term protein over-expression. Part II: The aim of our study was to investigate the effects of two orally dosed COMT inhibitors entacapone (10 and 30 mg/kg) and tolcapone (10 and 30 mg/kg) with a subsequent administration of a peripheral dopadecarboxylase inhibitor carbidopa (30 mg/kg) and L- dopa (30 mg/kg) on dopamine and its metabolite levels in the dorsal striatum and nucleus accumbens of freely moving rats using dual-probe in vivo microdialysis. Earlier similarly designed studies have only been conducted in the dorsal striatum. We also confirmed the result of earlier ex vivo studies regarding the effects of intraperitoneally dosed tolcapone (30 mg/kg) and entacapone (30 mg/kg) on striatal and hepatic COMT activity. The results obtained from the dorsal striatum were generally in line with earlier studies, where tolcapone tended to increase dopamine and DOPAC levels and decrease HVA levels. Entacapone tended to keep striatal dopamine and HVA levels elevated longer than in controls and also tended to elevate the levels of DOPAC. Surprisingly in the nucleus accumbens, dopamine levels after either dose of entacapone or tolcapone were not elevated. Accumbal DOPAC levels, especially in the tolcapone 30 mg/kg group, were elevated nearly to the same extent as measured in the dorsal striatum. Entacapone 10 mg/kg elevated accumbal HVA levels more than the dose of 30 mg/kg and the effect was more pronounced in the nucleus accumbens than in the dorsal striatum. This suggests that entacapone 30 mg/kg has minor central effects. Also our ex vivo study results obtained from the dorsal striatum suggest that entacapone 30 mg/kg has minor and transient central effects, even though central HVA levels were not suppressed below those of the control group in either brain area in the microdialysis study. Both entacapone and tolcapone suppressed hepatic COMT activity more than striatal COMT activity. Tolcapone was more effective than entacapone in the dorsal striatum. The differences between dopamine and its metabolite levels in the dorsal striatum and nucleus accumbens may be due to different properties of the two brain areas.

First Observation of Vector Boson Pairs in a Hadronic Final State at the Tevatron Collider

We present the first observation in hadronic collisions of the electroweak production of vector boson pairs (VV, V=W, Z) where one boson decays to a dijet final state. The data correspond to 3.5  fb-1 of integrated luminosity of pp̅ collisions at √s=1.96  TeV collected by the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. We observe 1516±239(stat)±144(syst) diboson candidate events and measure a cross section σ(pp̅ →VV+X) of 18.0±2.8(stat)±2.4(syst)±1.1(lumi)  pb, in agreement with the expectations of the standard model.

First Observation of Vector Boson Pairs in a Hadronic Final State at the Tevatron Collider

We present the first observation in hadronic collisions of the electroweak production of vector boson pairs (VV, V=W,Z) where one boson decays to a dijet final state . The data correspond to 3.5 inverse femtobarns of integrated luminosity of ppbar collisions at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV collected by the CDFII detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. We observe 1516+/-239(stat)+/-144(syst) diboson candidate events and measure a cross section sigma(ppbar->VV+X) of 18.0+/-2.8(stat)+/-2.4(syst)+/-1.1(lumi) pb, in agreement with the expectations of the standard model.

Search for new color-octet vector particle decaying to t tbar in p pbar collisions at sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV

We present the result of a search for a massive color-octet vector particle, (e.g. a massive gluon) decaying to a pair of top quarks in proton-antiproton collisions with a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV. This search is based on 1.9 fb$^{-1}$ of data collected using the CDF detector during Run II of the Tevatron at Fermilab. We study $t\bar{t}$ events in the lepton+jets channel with at least one $b$-tagged jet. A massive gluon is characterized by its mass, decay width, and the strength of its coupling to quarks. These parameters are determined according to the observed invariant mass distribution of top quark pairs. We set limits on the massive gluon coupling strength for masses between 400 and 800 GeV$/c^2$ and width-to-mass ratios between 0.05 and 0.50. The coupling strength of the hypothetical massive gluon to quarks is consistent with zero within the explored parameter space.

Inference on Cointegration in Vector Autoregressive Models (summary section only)

In the thesis we consider inference for cointegration in vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The thesis consists of an introduction and four papers. The first paper proposes a new test for cointegration in VAR models that is directly based on the eigenvalues of the least squares (LS) estimate of the autoregressive matrix. In the second paper we compare a small sample correction for the likelihood ratio (LR) test of cointegrating rank and the bootstrap. The simulation experiments show that the bootstrap works very well in practice and dominates the correction factor. The tests are applied to international stock prices data, and the .nite sample performance of the tests are investigated by simulating the data. The third paper studies the demand for money in Sweden 1970—2000 using the I(2) model. In the fourth paper we re-examine the evidence of cointegration between international stock prices. The paper shows that some of the previous empirical results can be explained by the small-sample bias and size distortion of Johansen’s LR tests for cointegration. In all papers we work with two data sets. The first data set is a Swedish money demand data set with observations on the money stock, the consumer price index, gross domestic product (GDP), the short-term interest rate and the long-term interest rate. The data are quarterly and the sample period is 1970(1)—2000(1). The second data set consists of month-end stock market index observations for Finland, France, Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States from 1980(1) to 1997(2). Both data sets are typical of the sample sizes encountered in economic data, and the applications illustrate the usefulness of the models and tests discussed in the thesis.