Wind drift of snowfall between the radar volume and ground

This study evaluates how the advection of precipitation, or wind drift, between the radar volume and ground affects radar measurements of precipitation. Normally precipitation is assumed to fall vertically to the ground from the contributing volume, and thus the radar measurement represents the geographical location immediately below. In this study radar measurements are corrected using hydrometeor trajectories calculated from measured and forecasted winds, and the effect of trajectory-correction on the radar measurements is evaluated. Wind drift statistics for Finland are compiled using sounding data from two weather stations spanning two years. For each sounding, the hydrometeor phase at ground level is estimated and drift distance calculated using different originating level heights. This way the drift statistics are constructed as a function of range from radar and elevation angle. On average, wind drift of 1 km was exceeded at approximately 60 km distance, while drift of 10 km was exceeded at 100 km distance. Trajectories were calculated using model winds in order to produce a trajectory-corrected ground field from radar PPI images. It was found that at the upwind side from the radar the effective measuring area was reduced as some trajectories exited the radar volume scan. In the downwind side areas near the edge of the radar measuring area experience improved precipitation detection. The effect of trajectory-correction is most prominent in instant measurements and diminishes when accumulating over longer time periods. Furthermore, measurements of intensive and small scale precipitation patterns benefit most from wind drift correction. The contribution of wind drift on the uncertainty of estimated Ze (S) - relationship was studied by simulating the effect of different error sources to the uncertainty in the relationship coefficients a and b. The overall uncertainty was assumed to consist of systematic errors of both the radar and the gauge, as well as errors by turbulence at the gauge orifice and by wind drift of precipitation. The focus of the analysis is error associated with wind drift, which was determined by describing the spatial structure of the reflectivity field using spatial autocovariance (or variogram). This spatial structure was then used with calculated drift distances to estimate the variance in radar measurement produced by precipitation drift, relative to the other error sources. It was found that error by wind drift was of similar magnitude with error by turbulence at gauge orifice at all ranges from radar, with systematic errors of the instruments being a minor issue. The correction method presented in the study could be used in radar nowcasting products to improve the estimation of visibility and local precipitation intensities. The method however only considers pure snow, and for operational purposes some improvements are desirable, such as melting layer detection, VPR correction and taking solid state hydrometeor type into account, which would improve the estimation of vertical velocities of the hydrometeors.

Characterization of genomic diversity in extraintestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli (ExPEC) and development of a diagnostic DNA microarray for the differentiation of ExPEC isolates causing urinary tract infections

Extraintestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli (ExPEC) represent a diverse group of strains of E. coli, which infect extraintestinal sites, such as the urinary tract, the bloodstream, the meninges, the peritoneal cavity, and the lungs. Urinary tract infections (UTIs) caused by uropathogenic E. coli (UPEC), the major subgroup of ExPEC, are among the most prevalent microbial diseases world wide and a substantial burden for public health care systems. UTIs are responsible for serious morbidity and mortality in the elderly, in young children, and in immune-compromised and hospitalized patients. ExPEC strains are different, both from genetic and clinical perspectives, from commensal E. coli strains belonging to the normal intestinal flora and from intestinal pathogenic E. coli strains causing diarrhea. ExPEC strains are characterized by a broad range of alternate virulence factors, such as adhesins, toxins, and iron accumulation systems. Unlike diarrheagenic E. coli, whose distinctive virulence determinants evoke characteristic diarrheagenic symptoms and signs, ExPEC strains are exceedingly heterogeneous and are known to possess no specific virulence factors or a set of factors, which are obligatory for the infection of a certain extraintestinal site (e. g. the urinary tract). The ExPEC genomes are highly diverse mosaic structures in permanent flux. These strains have obtained a significant amount of DNA (predictably up to 25% of the genomes) through acquisition of foreign DNA from diverse related or non-related donor species by lateral transfer of mobile genetic elements, including pathogenicity islands (PAIs), plasmids, phages, transposons, and insertion elements. The ability of ExPEC strains to cause disease is mainly derived from this horizontally acquired gene pool; the extragenous DNA facilitates rapid adaptation of the pathogen to changing conditions and hence the extent of the spectrum of sites that can be infected. However, neither the amount of unique DNA in different ExPEC strains (or UPEC strains) nor the mechanisms lying behind the observed genomic mobility are known. Due to this extreme heterogeneity of the UPEC and ExPEC populations in general, the routine surveillance of ExPEC is exceedingly difficult. In this project, we presented a novel virulence gene algorithm (VGA) for the estimation of the extraintestinal virulence potential (VP, pathogenicity risk) of clinically relevant ExPECs and fecal E. coli isolates. The VGA was based on a DNA microarray specific for the ExPEC phenotype (ExPEC pathoarray). This array contained 77 DNA probes homologous with known (e.g. adhesion factors, iron accumulation systems, and toxins) and putative (e.g. genes predictably involved in adhesion, iron uptake, or in metabolic functions) ExPEC virulence determinants. In total, 25 of DNA probes homologous with known virulence factors and 36 of DNA probes representing putative extraintestinal virulence determinants were found at significantly higher frequency in virulent ExPEC isolates than in commensal E. coli strains. We showed that the ExPEC pathoarray and the VGA could be readily used for the differentiation of highly virulent ExPECs both from less virulent ExPEC clones and from commensal E. coli strains as well. Implementing the VGA in a group of unknown ExPECs (n=53) and fecal E. coli isolates (n=37), 83% of strains were correctly identified as extraintestinal virulent or commensal E. coli. Conversely, 15% of clinical ExPECs and 19% of fecal E. coli strains failed to raster into their respective pathogenic and non-pathogenic groups. Clinical data and virulence gene profiles of these strains warranted the estimated VPs; UPEC strains with atypically low risk-ratios were largely isolated from patients with certain medical history, including diabetes mellitus or catheterization, or from elderly patients. In addition, fecal E. coli strains with VPs characteristic for ExPEC were shown to represent the diagnostically important fraction of resident strains of the gut flora with a high potential of causing extraintestinal infections. Interestingly, a large fraction of DNA probes associated with the ExPEC phenotype corresponded to novel DNA sequences without any known function in UTIs and thus represented new genetic markers for the extraintestinal virulence. These DNA probes included unknown DNA sequences originating from the genomic subtractions of four clinical ExPEC isolates as well as from five novel cosmid sequences identified in the UPEC strains HE300 and JS299. The characterized cosmid sequences (pJS332, pJS448, pJS666, pJS700, and pJS706) revealed complex modular DNA structures with known and unknown DNA fragments arranged in a puzzle-like manner and integrated into the common E. coli genomic backbone. Furthermore, cosmid pJS332 of the UPEC strain HE300, which carried a chromosomal virulence gene cluster (iroBCDEN) encoding the salmochelin siderophore system, was shown to be part of a transmissible plasmid of Salmonella enterica. Taken together, the results of this project pointed towards the assumptions that first, (i) homologous recombination, even within coding genes, contributes to the observed mosaicism of ExPEC genomes and secondly, (ii) besides en block transfer of large DNA regions (e.g. chromosomal PAIs) also rearrangements of small DNA modules provide a means of genomic plasticity. The data presented in this project supplemented previous whole genome sequencing projects of E. coli and indicated that each E. coli genome displays a unique assemblage of individual mosaic structures, which enable these strains to successfully colonize and infect different anatomical sites.

Postoperative Volume Therapy in Cardiac Surgery : Effects on Hemostatic and Circulatory Variables

Background: Patients may need massive volume-replacement therapy after cardiac surgery because of large fluid transfer perioperatively, and the use of cardiopulmonary bypass. Hemodynamic stability is better maintained with colloids than crystalloids but colloids have more adverse effects such as coagulation disturbances and impairment of renal function than do crystalloids. The present study examined the effects of modern hydroxyethyl starch (HES) and gelatin solutions on blood coagulation and hemodynamics. The mechanism by which colloids disturb blood coagulation was investigated by thromboelastometry (TEM) after cardiac surgery and in vitro by use of experimental hemodilution. Materials and methods: Ninety patients scheduled for elective primary cardiac surgery (Studies I, II, IV, V), and twelve healthy volunteers (Study III) were included in this study. After admission to the cardiac surgical intensive care unit (ICU), patients were randomized to receive different doses of HES 130/0.4, HES 200/0.5, or 4% albumin solutions. Ringer’s acetate or albumin solutions served as controls. Coagulation was assessed by TEM, and hemodynamic measurements were based on thermodilutionally measured cardiac index (CI). Results: HES and gelatin solutions impaired whole blood coagulation similarly as measured by TEM even at a small dose of 7 mL/kg. These solutions reduced clot strength and prolonged clot formation time. These effects were more pronounced with increasing doses of colloids. Neither albumin nor Ringer’s acetate solution disturbed blood coagulation significantly. Coagulation disturbances after infusion of HES or gelatin solutions were clinically slight, and postoperative blood loss was comparable with that of Ringer’s acetate or albumin solutions. Both single and multiple doses of all the colloids increased CI postoperatively, and this effect was dose-dependent. Ringer’s acetate had no effect on CI. At a small dose (7 mL/kg), the effect of gelatin on CI was comparable with that of Ringer’s acetate and significantly less than that of HES 130/0.4 (Study V). However, when the dose was increased to 14 and 21 mL/kg, the hemodynamic effect of gelatin rose and became comparable with that of HES 130/0.4. Conclusions: After cardiac surgery, HES and gelatin solutions impaired clot strength in a dose-dependent manner. The potential mechanisms were interaction with fibrinogen and fibrin formation, resulting in decreased clot strength, and hemodilution. Although the use of HES and gelatin inhibited coagulation, postoperative bleeding on the first postoperative morning in all the study groups was similar. A single dose of HES solutions improved CI postoperatively more than did gelatin, albumin, or Ringer’s acetate. However, when administered in a repeated fashion, (cumulative dose of 14 mL/kg or more), no differences were evident between HES 130/0.4 and gelatin.

The thickness and volume of lake ice in Finland

Yhteenveto: Järvijään paksuus ja volyymi Suomessa jaksolla 1961-90

Scientific Journal Publishing – Yearly Volume and Open Access Availability

Introduction. We estimate the total yearly volume of peer-reviewed scientific journal articles published world-wide as well as the share of these articles available openly on the Web either directly or as copies in e-print repositories. Method. We rely on data from two commercial databases (ISI and Ulrich's Periodicals Directory) supplemented by sampling and Google searches. Analysis. A central issue is the finding that ISI-indexed journals publish far more articles per year (111) than non ISI-indexed journals (26), which means that the total figure we obtain is much lower than many earlier estimates. Our method of analysing the number of repository copies (green open access) differs from several earlier studies which have studied the number of copies in identified repositories, since we start from a random sample of articles and then test if copies can be found by a Web search engine. Results. We estimate that in 2006 the total number of articles published was approximately 1,350,000. Of this number 4.6% became immediately openly available and an additional 3.5% after an embargo period of, typically, one year. Furthermore, usable copies of 11.3% could be found in subject-specific or institutional repositories or on the home pages of the authors. Conclusions. We believe our results are the most reliable so far published and, therefore, should be useful in the on-going debate about Open Access among both academics and science policy makers. The method is replicable and also lends itself to longitudinal studies in the future.

Analysts' Accuracy of Estimation and the Relative Trading Volume

This study contributes to the neglect effect literature by looking at the relative trading volume in terms of value. The results for the Swedish market show a significant positive relationship between the accuracy of estimation and the relative trading volume. Market capitalisation and analyst coverage have in prior studies been used as proxies for neglect. These measures however, do not take into account the effort analysts put in when estimating corporate pre-tax profits. I also find evidence that the industry of the firm influence the accuracy of estimation. In addition, supporting earlier findings, loss making firms are associated with larger forecasting errors. Further, I find that the average forecast error increased in the year 2000 – in Sweden.