Words as Events : Cretan Mantinádes in Performance and Composition

Words as Events introduces the tradition of short, communicative rhyming couplets, the mantinádes, which are still sung and recited in a variety of performance situations on the island of Crete. The local focus on communicative economy and artistry is further examined in an in-depth analysis of the processes and ideals of composition. Short genres of oral poetry have been widely neglected in folklore research; however, their demand for structural and semantic coherence as well as their dialogic nature appeals to very different human needs from those of the longer poems. In contemporary Crete, poems also appear in written contexts, they are submitted to modern mass media, and people widely exchange them as text messages. By striving to understand the tradition during a period of change, this study analyzes the larger principles that ground the communication, self-expression and creativity in the genre. The aim of this research is thus twofold: to present this specific register of dialogic oral poetry as well as to create a theoretical approach sensitive to the creativity of such short registers. The study is based on long-term ethnographic fieldwork conducted in Crete between the years 1997 2009. An important aspect of the methodology was to create long-term ties with a number of key-informants who composed mantinádes. The interdisciplinary theoretical and methodological basis for this analysis is in the contemporary Finnish and international research on oral poetry and on anthropological research on communicative speech genres. These theoretical insights are extended by addressing questions of spontaneity and individual agency. Since mantinádes are at the same time a model for composition and a reserve of poems in fixed form, the aesthetics and objectives of performance and composition are also plural. In a traditional singing event, the basic motivation for the singers is to provide a meaningful contribution to a selected theme, which is the shared topic of the poetic dialogue. Consequently, similar topics giving rise to poetic associations can be encountered during various moments of everyday life: the dialogic nature is embodied in the tradition to such degree that it also arises in the performances and composition of single poems and outside of any institutionalized performance arenas. Therefore, as this study discusses in detail, even the apparently non-contextualized poems recited between locals or occurring in the contemporary mass media arenas, are understood and evaluated as utterances that provide an individual perspective within a certain dialogue.

Intraday and Weekend Volatility Patterns- Implications for Option Pricing

This study examines the intraday and weekend volatility on the German DAX. The intraday volatility is partitioned into smaller intervals and compared to a whole day’s volatility. The estimated intraday variance is U-shaped and the weekend variance is estimated to 19 % of a normal trading day. The patterns in the intraday and weekend volatility are used to develop an extension to the Black and Scholes formula to form a new time basis. Calendar or trading days are commonly used for measuring time in option pricing. The Continuous Time using Discrete Approximations model (CTDA) developed in this study uses a measure of time with smaller intervals, approaching continuous time. The model presented accounts for the lapse of time during trading only. Arbitrage pricing suggests that the option price equals the expected cost of hedging volatility during the option’s remaining life. In this model, time is allowed to lapse as volatility occurs on an intraday basis. The measure of time is modified in CTDA to correct for the non-constant volatility and to account for the patterns in volatility.

Simulating and Forecasting the Demand for New Consumer Durables

A diffusion/replacement model for new consumer durables designed to be used as a long-term forecasting tool is developed. The model simulates new demand as well as replacement demand over time. The model is called DEMSIM and is built upon a counteractive adoption model specifying the basic forces affecting the adoption behaviour of individual consumers. These forces are the promoting forces and the resisting forces. The promoting forces are further divided into internal and external influences. These influences are operationalized within a multi-segmental diffusion model generating the adoption behaviour of the consumers in each segment as an expected value. This diffusion model is combined with a replacement model built upon the same segmental structure as the diffusion model. This model generates, in turn, the expected replacement behaviour in each segment. To be able to use DEMSIM as a forecasting tool in early stages of a diffusion process estimates of the model parameters are needed as soon as possible after product launch. However, traditional statistical techniques are not very helpful in estimating such parameters in early stages of a diffusion process. To enable early parameter calibration an optimization algorithm is developed by which the main parameters of the diffusion model can be estimated on the basis of very few sales observations. The optimization is carried out in iterative simulation runs. Empirical validations using the optimization algorithm reveal that the diffusion model performs well in early long-term sales forecasts, especially as it comes to the timing of future sales peaks.