Generations and turnout : The generational effect in electoral participation in Finland

The relationship between age and turnout has been curve-linear as electoral participation first increases with age, remains relatively stable throughout middle-age and then gradually declines as certain physical infirmities set in (see e.g. Milbrath 1965). Alongside this life-cycle effect in voting, recent pooled cross-sectional analyses (see e.g. Blais et al. 2004; Lyons and Alexander 2000) have shown that there is also a generational effect, referring to lasting differences in turnout between various age groups. This study firstly examines the extent to which the generational effect applies in the Finnish context. Secondly, it investigates the factors accounting for that effect. The first article, based on individual-level register data from the parliamentary elections of 1999, shows that turnout differences between the different age groups would be even larger if there were no differences in social class and education. The second article examines simultaneously the effects of age, generation and period in the Finnish parliamentary elections of 1975-2003 based on pooled data from Finnish voter barometers (N = 8,634). The results show that there is a clear life cycle, generational and period effect. The third article examines the role of political socialisation in accounting for generational differences in electoral participation. Political socialisation is defined as the learning process in which an individual adopts various values, political attitudes, and patterns of actions from his or her environment. The multivariate analysis, based on the Finnish national election study 2003 (N=1,270), indicated that if there were no differences in socialisation between the youngest and the older generations, the difference in turnout would be much larger than if only sex and socioeconomic factors are controlled for. The fourth article examines other possible factors related to generational effect in voting. The results mainly apply to the Finnish parliamentary elections of 2003 in which we have data available. The results show that the sense of duty by far accounts for the generational effect in voting. Political interest, political knowledge and non-parliamentary participation also narrowed the differences in electoral participation between the youngest and the second youngest generations. The implication of the findings is that the lower turnout among the current youth is not a passing phenomenon that will diminish with age. Considering voting a civic duty and understanding the meaning of collective action are both associated with the process of political socialisation which therefore has an important role concerning the generational effect in turnout.

The Day of the Week Effect and Option Pricing - A Study of the German Option Market

The use of different time units in option pricing may lead to inconsistent estimates of time decay and spurious jumps in implied volatilities. Different time units in the pricing model leads to different implied volatilities although the option price itself is the same.The chosen time unit should make it necessary to adjust the volatility parameter only when there are some fundamental reasons for it and not due to wrong specifications of the model. This paper examined the effects of option pricing using different time hypotheses and empirically investigated which time frame the option markets in Germany employ over weekdays. The paper specifically tries to get a picture of how the market prices options. The results seem to verify that the German market behaves in a fashion that deviates from the most traditional time units in option pricing, calendar and trading days. The study also showed that the implied volatility of Thursdays was somewhat higher and thus differed from the pattern of other days of the week. Using a GARCH model to further investigate the effect showed that although a traditional tests, like the analysis of variance, indicated a negative return for Thursday during the same period as the implied volatilities used, this was not supported using a GARCH model.

The effect of temperature on height growth of Scots pine in northern Finland

The effect of temperature on height growth of Scots pine in the northern boreal zone in Lapland was studied in two different time scales. Intra-annual growth was monitored in four stands in up to four growing seasons using an approximately biweekly measurement interval. Inter-annual growth was studied using growth records representing seven stands and five geographical locations. All the stands were growing on a dry to semi-dry heath that is a typical site type for pine stands in Finland. The applied methodology is based on applied time-series analysis and multilevel modelling. Intra-annual elongation of the leader shoot correlated with temperature sum accumulation. Height growth ceased when, on average, 41% of the relative temperature sum of the site was achieved (observed minimum and maximum were 38% and 43%). The relative temperature sum was calculated by dividing the actual temperature sum by the long-term mean of the total annual temperature sum for the site. Our results suggest that annual height growth ceases when a location-specific temperature sum threshold is attained. The positive effect of the mean July temperature of the previous year on annual height increment proved to be very strong at high latitudes. The mean November temperature of the year before the previous had a statistically significantly effect on height increment in the three northernmost stands. The effect of mean monthly precipitation on annual height growth was statistically insignificant. There was a non-linear dependence between length and needle density of annual shoots. Exceptionally low height growth results in high needle-density, but the effect is weaker in years of average or good height growth. Radial growth and next year s height growth are both largely controlled by current July temperature. Nevertheless, their growth variation in terms of minimum and maximum is not necessarily strongly correlated. This is partly because height growth is more sensitive to changes in temperature. In addition, the actual effective temperature period is not exactly the same for these two growth components. Yet, there is a long-term balance that was also statistically distinguishable; radial growth correlated significantly with height growth with a lag of 2 years. Temperature periods shorter than a month are more effective variables than mean monthly values, but the improvement is on the scale of modest to good when applying Julian days or growing-degree-days as pointers.