Japanese Video Game Localization : A Case Study of Sony's Sairen Series

This thesis is a comparative case study in Japanese video game localization for the video games Sairen, Sairen 2 and Sairen Nyûtoransurêshon, and English-language localized versions of the same games as published in Scandinavia and Australia/New Zealand. All games are developed by Sony Computer Entertainment Inc. and published exclusively for Playstation2 and Playstation3 consoles. The fictional world of the Sairen games draws much influence from Japanese history, as well as from popular and contemporary culture, and in doing so caters mainly to a Japanese audience. For localization, i.e. the adaptation of a product to make it accessible to users outside the original market it was intended for in the first place, this is a challenging issue. Video games are media of entertainment, and therefore localization practice must preserve the games’ effects on the players’ emotions. Further, video games are digital products that are comprised of a multitude of distinct elements, some of which are part of the game world, while others regulate the connection between the player as part of the real world and the game as digital medium. As a result, video game localization is also a practice that has to cope with the technical restrictions that are inherent to the medium. The main theory used throughout the thesis is Anthony Pym’s framework for localization studies that considers the user of the localized product as a defining part of the localization process. This concept presupposes that localization is an adaptation that is performed to make a product better suited for use during a specific reception situation. Pym also addresses the factor that certain products may resist distribution into certain reception situations because of their content, and that certain aspects of localization aim to reduce this resistance through significant alterations of the original product. While Pym developed his ideas with mainly regular software in mind, they can also be adapted well to study video games from a localization angle. Since modern video games are highly complex entities that often switch between interactive and non-interactive modes, Pym’s ideas are adapted throughout the thesis to suit the particular elements being studied. Instances analyzed in this thesis include menu screens, video clips, in-game action and websites. The main research questions focus on how the games’ rules influence localization, and how the games’ fictional domain influences localization. Because there are so many peculiarities inherent to the medium of the video game, other theories are introduced as well to complement the research at hand. These include Lawrence Venuti’s discussions of foreiginizing and domesticating translation methods for literary translation, and Jesper Juul’s definition of games. Additionally, knowledge gathered from interviews with video game localization professionals in Japan during September and October 2009 is also utilized for this study. Apart from answering the aforementioned research questions, one of this thesis’ aims is to enrich the still rather small field of game localization studies, and the study of Japanese video games in particular, one of Japan’s most successful cultural exports.

Measuring attitudes in translation: a study of Nokia business reports

Background Contemporary Finnish, spoken and written, reveals loanwords or foreignisms in the form of hybrids: a mixture of Finnish and foreign syllables (alumiinivalua). Sometimes loanwords are inserted into the Finnish sentence in their raw form just as they are found in the source language (pulp, after sales palvelu). Again, sometimes loanwords are calques, which appear Finnish but are spelled and pronounced in an altogether foreign manner (Protomanageri, Promenadi kampuksella). Research Questions What role does Finnish business translation play in the migration of foreignisms into Finnish if we consider translation "as a construct of solutions determined by the ideological constraints and conflicts characterizing the target culture" (Robyns 1992: 212)? What attitudes do the Finns display toward the presence of foreignisms in their language? What socio-economic or ideological conditions (Bassnett 1994: 321) are responsible for these attitudes? Are these conditions dynamic? What tools can be used to measure such attitudes? This dissertation set out to answer these and similar questions. Attitudes are imperialist (where otherness is both denied and transformed), defensive (where otherness is acknowledged, transformed, and vilified), transdiscursive (a neutral attitude to both otherness and transformation), or finally defective (where alien migration is acknowledged and "stimulated") (Robyns 1994: 60). Methodology The research method follows Rose's schema (1984: 8): (a) take an existing theory, (b) develop from it a proposition specific enough to be tested, (c) devise a scheme that tests this proposition, (d) carry through the scheme in practice, (e) draw up results and discuss conclusions in relation to the original theory. In other words, the method attempts an explanation of a Finnish social phenomenon based on systematic analyses of translated evidence (Lewins 1992: 4) whereby what really matters is the logical sequence that connects the empirical data to the initial research questions raised above and, ultimately to its conclusion (Yin 1984: 29). Results This research found that Finnish translators of the Nokia annual reports used a foreignism whenever possible such as komponentin instead of rakenneosa, or investoida instead of sijoittaa, and often without any apparent justification (Pryce 2003: 203-12) more than the translator's personal preference. In the old documents (minutes of meetings of the Board of Directors of Osakeyhtio H. Saastamoinen, Ltd. dated 5 July 1912-1917, a NOPSA booklet (1932), Enzo-Gutzeit-Tornator Oy document (1938), Imatra Steel Oy Annual Report 1964, and Nokia Oy Annual Report 1946), foreignisms under Haugen's (1950: 210-31) Classification #1 occurred an average of 0.6 times, while in the new documents (Nokia 1998 translated Annual Reports) they occurred an average of 6.5 times. That big difference, suggests transdiscursive and defective attitudes in Finnish society toward the other. In the 1850s, Finnish attitudes toward alien persons and cultures were hardened, intolerant and prohibitive because language politics were both nascent and emerging, and Finns adopted a defensive stance (Paloposki 2002: 102 ff) to protect their cultural and national treasures such as language and folklore. Innovation The innovation here is that no prior doctoral level research measured Finnish attitudes toward foreignisms using a business translation approach. This is the first time that Haugen's classification has been modified and applied in target language analysis. It is hoped that this method would be replicated in similar research in the future. Applications For practical applications, researchers with interest in languages, language development, language influences, language ideologies, and power structures that affect national language policies will find this thesis useful, especially the model for collecting, grouping, and analyzing foreignisms that has been demonstrated here. It is intended to document for posterity current attitudes of Finns toward the other as revealed in business translations from 1912-1964, and in 1998. This way, future language researchers would be able to explore a time-line of Finnish language development and attitudes toward the other. Communication firms may also find this research interesting. In future, could the model we adopted be used to analyze literary texts or religious texts for example? Future Trends Though business documents show transdiscursive attitudes, other segments of Finnish society may show defensive or imperialist attitudes. When the ideology of industrialization changes in the future, will Finnish attitudes toward the other change as well? Will it then be possible to use the same kind of analytical tools to measure Finnish attitudes? More broadly, will linguistic change continue in the same direction of transdiscursive attitudes, or will the change slow down or even reverse into xenophobic attitudes? Is this our model culture-specific or can it be used in the context of other cultures? Conclusion There is anger against foreignisms in Finland as newspaper publications and television broadcasts show, but research shows that a majority of Finns consider foreignisms and the languages from which they come as sources of enrichment for Finnish culture (Laitinen 2000, Eurobarometer series 41 of July 1994, 44 of Spring 1996, 50 of Autumn 1998). Ideologies of industrialization and globalization in Finland have facilitated transdiscursive tendencies. When Finland's political ideology was intolerant toward foreign influences in the 1850s because Finland was in the process of consolidating her nascent country and language, attitudes toward the importation of loanwords also became intolerant. Presently, when industrialization and globalization became the dominant ideologies, we see a shift in attitudes toward transdiscursive tendencies. Ideology is usually unseen and too often ignored by translation researchers. However, ideology reveals itself as the most powerful factor affecting language attitudes in a target culture. Key words Finnish, Business Translation, Ideology, Foreignisms, Imperialist Attitudes, Defensive Attitudes, Transdiscursive Attitudes, Defective Attitudes, the Other, Old Documents, New Documents.

Effects of the digital subtitling software on the subtitling process : A survey among Finnish professional television subtitlers

Tutkielma käsittelee suomalaisten televisiotekstittäjien ammatillisuutta, käännösprosessia ja digitaalisten tekstitysohjelmien vaikutuksia tekstitysprosessiin ammattitekstittäjien näkökulmasta. Suomen television digitalisoituminen on aiheuttanut mullistuksia myös tekstitysalalla kun tekstitettävä kuvamateriaali on ryhdytty toimittamaan käännöstoimistoille ja tekstittäjille digitaalisena. Teoriaosuudessa käsitellään käännös- ja tekstitystutkimusta sekä koulutusta Suomessa, ammattitaitoa ja ammatillisuutta sekä kääntämisen apukeinoja. Tekstittäminen esitellään erikoistuneena kääntämisen muotona. On kuitenkin myös huomioitava, että kääntäminen on yksi vaihe tekstitysprosessissa. Teoriaosuus päättyy suomalaisten televisiotekstittäjien arjen ja työkentän nykytilanteen käsittelyyn – tekstittäjät työskentelevät monenlaisilla työehdoilla ja laadun kriteerit saatetaan joutua arvioimaan uudelleen. Empiirisen osan alussa esitetään, että suomalaisia televisiotekstittäjiä on haastateltu yllättävän vähän, ja Jääskeläisen ajatuksiin nojaten mainitaan, että tekstittämisen alalla on vielä paljon tutkimatta – etenkin suomalaisesta tekstitysprosessista löytyy tutkittavaa. Tutkimuskohde on ammatikseen televisioon tekstityksiä tekevät kääntäjät. Suomalaiselle tekstitykseen erikoistuneelle käännöstoimistolle työskenteleville tekstittäjille lähetettiin alkutalvesta 2008 kyselylomake, jolla kartoitettiin sekä monivalintakysymyksillä että avoimilla kysymyksillä heidän ammatillisuuttaan, työmenetelmiään, käännös- ja tekstitysprosessiaan, ammattiylpeyttään ja -identiteettiään, ajanhallintaansa, sekä heidän käyttämäänsä digitaalista tekstitysohjelmaa. Tutkimuksessa kävi ilmi, että lähes kolmanneksella vastaajista on ammatistaan neutraali tai jopa negatiivinen käsitys. Näitä tekstittäjiä yhdistää se seikka, että kaikilla on alle 5 vuotta kokemusta alalta. Valtaosa vastanneista on kuitenkin ylpeitä siitä, että toimivat suomen kielen ammattilaisina. Tekstitysprosessi oli lomakkeessa jaettu esikatseluvaiheeseen, käännösvaiheeseen, ajastamisvaiheeseen ja korjauskatseluvaiheeseen. Tekstittäjät pyydettiin mm. arvioimaan tekstitysprosessinsa kokonaiskestoa. Kestoissa ilmeni suuria eroavaisuuksia, joista ainakin osa korreloi kokemuksen kanssa. Runsas puolet vastaajista on hankkinut digitaalisen tekstitysohjelmiston käyttöönsä ja osa ajastaa edelleen käännöstoimistossa muun muassa ohjelmiston kalleuden vuoksi. Digitaalisen ohjelmiston myötä tekstitysprosessiin ja työkäytänteisiin on tullut muutoksia, kun videonauhureista ja televisioista on siirrytty pelkän tietokoneen käyttöön. On mahdollista tehdä etätyötä kaukomailta käsin, kääntää ja ajastaa lomittain tai tehdä esiajastus ja kääntää sitten. Digitaalinen tekniikka on siis mahdollistanut tekstitysprosessin muuttumisen ja vaihtoehtoiset työmenetelmät, mutta kaikista menetelmistä ei välttämättä ole tekstittäjälle hyötyä. Perinteinen tekstitysprosessi (esikatselu, repliikkijakojen merkitseminen käsikirjoitukseen, kääntäminen ja repliikkien laadinta, korjaukset ja tarkastuskatselu) vaikuttaa edelleen tehokkaimmalta. Vaikka työkäytänteet eroavat toisistaan, kokonaiskäsitys on se, että digitalisoitumisen alkukangertelujen jälkeen tekstittäjien työskentely on tehostunut.

Methodological and Empirical Advances in the Quantitative Analysis of Spontaneous Responses in Psychophysiological Time Series

The aim of the present study was to advance the methodology and use of time series analysis to quantify dynamic structures in psychophysiological processes and thereby to produce information on spontaneously coupled physiological responses and their behavioral and experiential correlates. Series of analyses using both simulated and empirical cardiac (IBI), electrodermal (EDA), and facial electromyographic (EMG) data indicated that, despite potential autocorrelated structures, smoothing increased the reliability of detecting response coupling from an interindividual distribution of intraindividual measures and that especially the measures of covariance produced accurate information on the extent of coupled responses. This methodology was applied to analyze spontaneously coupled IBI, EDA, and facial EMG responses and vagal activity in their relation to emotional experience and personality characteristics in a group of middle-aged men (n = 37) during the administration of the Rorschach testing protocol. The results revealed new characteristics in the relationship between phasic end-organ synchronization and vagal activity, on the one hand, and individual differences in emotional adjustment to novel situations on the other. Specifically, it appeared that the vagal system is intimately related to emotional and social responsivity. It was also found that the lack of spontaneously synchronized responses is related to decreased energetic arousal (e.g., depression, mood). These findings indicate that the present process analysis approach has many advantages for use in both experimental and applied research, and that it is a useful new paradigm in psychophysiological research. Keywords: Autonomic Nervous System; Emotion; Facial Electromyography; Individual Differences; Spontaneous Responses; Time Series Analysis; Vagal System

Improving GPS time series for geodynamic studies

Accurate and stable time series of geodetic parameters can be used to help in understanding the dynamic Earth and its response to global change. The Global Positioning System, GPS, has proven to be invaluable in modern geodynamic studies. In Fennoscandia the first GPS networks were set up in 1993. These networks form the basis of the national reference frames in the area, but they also provide long and important time series for crustal deformation studies. These time series can be used, for example, to better constrain the ice history of the last ice age and the Earth s structure, via existing glacial isostatic adjustment models. To improve the accuracy and stability of the GPS time series, the possible nuisance parameters and error sources need to be minimized. We have analysed GPS time series to study two phenomena. First, we study the refraction in the neutral atmosphere of the GPS signal, and, second, we study the surface loading of the crust by environmental factors, namely the non-tidal Baltic Sea, atmospheric load and varying continental water reservoirs. We studied the atmospheric effects on the GPS time series by comparing the standard method to slant delays derived from a regional numerical weather model. We have presented a method for correcting the atmospheric delays at the observational level. The results show that both standard atmosphere modelling and the atmospheric delays derived from a numerical weather model by ray-tracing provide a stable solution. The advantage of the latter is that the number of unknowns used in the computation decreases and thus, the computation may become faster and more robust. The computation can also be done with any processing software that allows the atmospheric correction to be turned off. The crustal deformation due to loading was computed by convolving Green s functions with surface load data, that is to say, global hydrology models, global numerical weather models and a local model for the Baltic Sea. The result was that the loading factors can be seen in the GPS coordinate time series. Reducing the computed deformation from the vertical time series of GPS coordinates reduces the scatter of the time series; however, the long term trends are not influenced. We show that global hydrology models and the local sea surface can explain up to 30% of the GPS time series variation. On the other hand atmospheric loading admittance in the GPS time series is low, and different hydrological surface load models could not be validated in the present study. In order to be used for GPS corrections in the future, both atmospheric loading and hydrological models need further analysis and improvements.

Slogans of Change : Three Outlooks on Finnish Television

The study Slogans of Change. Three Outlooks on Finnish Television Contents is concerned with alleged changes of television contents during the 1990s and 2000s, such as dumbing down, tabloidisation, entertainisation , and the like. Specifically, the focus is on the ways these changes might manifest in Finnish television. The aim of the study has been threefold: 1. To operationalise public and academic discussions about changes via specific slogans emerging from the debates; 2. Consequently, to study the slogans empirically and reflect on the findings with earlier research, including studies on institutional and audience-related aspects; 3. Finally, to suggest what the findings might mean regarding discussions about television s role, and what kinds of slogans or concepts might best serve future discussions and research. The empirical outlooks presented in this study offer analyses with three different sets of opposing slogans of change. The outlooks also follow three different traditions of the study of television. The first outlook focuses on quantity, as it gives a longitudinal (1993-2004), macro-level view on programme structures. The methodological approach is derived from media economic and policy studies. The claims that frame the analysis are convergence versus diversification of programme structures. The second outlook provides quantitative and qualitative views on the characteristics and quality  the term signifying essence as well as worth  of Finnish television journalism during sample weeks from the years 2002 and 2003. This outlook follows the traditions of quantitative content analysis found in journalism studies coupled with descriptive qualitative content analyses. The slogans reflected in this section are the lightening or widening of journalism. The third outlook narrows down the material and focuses at a micro-level on form; that is, communicative conventions in a small array of selected programmes in 1993, 2000 and during 2002-2004. The analyses have been inspired by the method of conversation analysis of verbal interaction, and coupled with qualitative close readings, with the focus of different communicative situations in the programmes. The catchphrases employed in this part are emotainment versus democratainment, coupled with more specific claims of discursive hybridisation and conversationalisation. The findings depict that, empirically, changes in Finnish television contents are not clear linear trends and cannot easily be moulded into neat slogans. The quantitative outlook on programme output during 1993-2004 depicts a tendency towards differentiation of channels, paving the way for the multi-channel digital system. The change in programme structures, however, is not dramatic on the level of total output. The second outlook suggests that the dualistic concepts, such as the pair information-entertainment, are not sufficient in understanding the array and changes of programmes that could be called journalism. The outlook on communicative conventions highlights hybridisation in the manner of television talk and its relation to broader debates on contents. Despite the three dissimilar empirical approaches, unifying aspects emerge. The outlooks suggest, albeit in different ways, tendencies toward distinction and polarisation. This study proposes that in order to facilitate a more nuanced understanding of the changes in television contents, dualistic slogans should be replaced with a multi-dimensional understanding of the concept of diversity.

Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

Eläytymisestä omiin tarinoihin : Televisiosarja katsojien keskustelussa

From sympathetic understanding to own stories. TV-series in the conversation of its viewers. The purpose of this study is to analyze viewers' conversations about TV-series as a practice in which viewers construct meaning to TV-series. In the tradition of British Cultural Studies this study understands that viewer has an active role in interpreting and constructing meaning to TV-series. In the tradition of feminist studies this study understands that gender is being constructed in social and cultural practices. In reception studies, the viewing of TV-series has usually been analyzed as a practice which is embedded at home and in a family. The studies are often based on interviews of viewers, and the analysis of the construction of meaning is based on interview material where the viewers most often talk about their viewing habits and the likes and dislikes of TV-shows and -characters. This study extends the reception and interpretation of TV-series from home to the moments of interaction between viewers. It is quite common to hear how people talk also outside of home about television and the programmes they have watched. In this study the construction of meaning is being studied in viewers' conversations. The method of analysis is conversation analysis which studies the ordered properties of everyday forms of social interaction. The data has been collected in a workplace where four women watched together (and without the presence of a researcher) two TV-series, American sitcom Golden Girls and Finnish family drama Ruusun aika (Time of a Rose), and afterwards had time and chance for discussion. There was neither a questionnaire nor an agenda for the women to discuss. The analysis of the conversation brings up three themes. In the orientation discussions the viewers aim to construct frames in which it makes sense to talk about the TV-series. The frames have mostly to do with the genre of the TV-series. The second theme is concerned with the viewers' aim to achieve sympathetic understanding of the characters in the TV-series. The third theme extends and transfers the conversation about TV-series to real or imaginary stories of own life. In the conversation the reception of a TV-series appears as being in motion: in the orientation discussions the viewers move towards the series, in the character-discussions the viewers move within the world of the series, and when telling their own stories the viewers move away from the TV-series towards their own lives. In the conversations there appears also a distinction in gender-constructions. When the viewers talk about motherhood, they adopt a serious and moralistic tone. When they talk about female sexuality and relationships between women and men they adopt carnevalistic and humorous tone. There are examples of these kinds of gender-constructions also in other studies of Finnish gender culture. Motherhood means the responsibility to good upbringing; relationships with men include something unpredictable and problematic which one handles at best in a humorous way.

Studies on Binary Time Series Models with Applications to Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance

This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.

What do hydrological time series tell about climate change?

Yhteenveto: Mitä hydrologiset mallit kertovat ilmaston muutoksesta?

Framtidens television. Vissa marknadsförings- och upphovsrättsliga spörsmål

Den här boken handlar om framtidens television och vissa marknadsförings- och upphovsrättsliga spörsmål som aktualiseras i samband med nya former av televisionssändningar. TV-tekniken har utvecklats mycket under de senaste åren, och det är framförallt sändningstekniken som har genomgått de största förändringarna. Tyngdpunkten i detta arbete har lagts på förmedling av TV-sändningar över Internet med hjälp av P2P-tekniken (peer-to-peer) och vilka marknadsförings- och upphovsrättsliga spörsmål detta aktualiserar. Den nya förmedlingstekniken möjliggör en rad nya marknadsföringsmetoder, och i boken behandlas hur dessa metoder förhåller sig till nuvarande marknadsföringsrättsliga reglering. Förmedling av upphovsrättsskyddat material över Internet har inneburit ett flertal reformer av gällande upphovsrättslagstiftning i syfte att stärka rättsinnehavarnas ensamrätt. En viktig fråga som boken behandlar är hur gällande upphovsrättslagstiftning skall tolkas i förhållande till nya distributionsformer över Internet. I boken tas även upp frågor i anknytning till problemet med att en stor del av det material som förmedlas över Internet sker utan rättsinnehavarens samtycke, vilket innebär en ekonomisk förlust för rättsinnehavaren. I boken framläggs alternativa lösningar för hur förmedlingen över Internet kan tilldela rättsinnehavaren ekonomisk ersättning, trots att förmedlingen är avgiftsfri.

Bootstrap and Fast Double Bootstrap Tests of Cointegration Rank with Financial Time Series

The likelihood ratio test of cointegration rank is the most widely used test for cointegration. Many studies have shown that its finite sample distribution is not well approximated by the limiting distribution. The article introduces and evaluates by Monte Carlo simulation experiments bootstrap and fast double bootstrap (FDB) algorithms for the likelihood ratio test. It finds that the performance of the bootstrap test is very good. The more sophisticated FDB produces a further improvement in cases where the performance of the asymptotic test is very unsatisfactory and the ordinary bootstrap does not work as well as it might. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo simulations provide a number of guidelines on when the bootstrap and FDB tests can be expected to work well. Finally, the tests are applied to US interest rates and international stock prices series. It is found that the asymptotic test tends to overestimate the cointegration rank, while the bootstrap and FDB tests choose the correct cointegration rank.