Statistical analysis of the associations of hereditary factors with the risk of Type 1 diabetes and Diabetic Nephropathy based on the familial data collected through ascertaiment from population-based registers

In genetic epidemiology, population-based disease registries are commonly used to collect genotype or other risk factor information concerning affected subjects and their relatives. This work presents two new approaches for the statistical inference of ascertained data: a conditional and full likelihood approaches for the disease with variable age at onset phenotype using familial data obtained from population-based registry of incident cases. The aim is to obtain statistically reliable estimates of the general population parameters. The statistical analysis of familial data with variable age at onset becomes more complicated when some of the study subjects are non-susceptible, that is to say these subjects never get the disease. A statistical model for a variable age at onset with long-term survivors is proposed for studies of familial aggregation, using latent variable approach, as well as for prospective studies of genetic association studies with candidate genes. In addition, we explore the possibility of a genetic explanation of the observed increase in the incidence of Type 1 diabetes (T1D) in Finland in recent decades and the hypothesis of non-Mendelian transmission of T1D associated genes. Both classical and Bayesian statistical inference were used in the modelling and estimation. Despite the fact that this work contains five studies with different statistical models, they all concern data obtained from nationwide registries of T1D and genetics of T1D. In the analyses of T1D data, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility alleles was not observed. In addition, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility genes did not make a plausible explanation for the increase in T1D incidence in Finland. Instead, the Human Leucocyte Antigen associations with T1D were confirmed in the population-based analysis, which combines T1D registry information, reference sample of healthy subjects and birth cohort information of the Finnish population. Finally, a substantial familial variation in the susceptibility of T1D nephropathy was observed. The presented studies show the benefits of sophisticated statistical modelling to explore risk factors for complex diseases.

Methods to improve gene signal: Application to cDNA microarrays

Microarrays are high throughput biological assays that allow the screening of thousands of genes for their expression. The main idea behind microarrays is to compute for each gene a unique signal that is directly proportional to the quantity of mRNA that was hybridized on the chip. A large number of steps and errors associated with each step make the generated expression signal noisy. As a result, microarray data need to be carefully pre-processed before their analysis can be assumed to lead to reliable and biologically relevant conclusions. This thesis focuses on developing methods for improving gene signal and further utilizing this improved signal for higher level analysis. To achieve this, first, approaches for designing microarray experiments using various optimality criteria, considering both biological and technical replicates, are described. A carefully designed experiment leads to signal with low noise, as the effect of unwanted variations is minimized and the precision of the estimates of the parameters of interest are maximized. Second, a system for improving the gene signal by using three scans at varying scanner sensitivities is developed. A novel Bayesian latent intensity model is then applied on these three sets of expression values, corresponding to the three scans, to estimate the suitably calibrated true signal of genes. Third, a novel image segmentation approach that segregates the fluorescent signal from the undesired noise is developed using an additional dye, SYBR green RNA II. This technique helped in identifying signal only with respect to the hybridized DNA, and signal corresponding to dust, scratch, spilling of dye, and other noises, are avoided. Fourth, an integrated statistical model is developed, where signal correction, systematic array effects, dye effects, and differential expression, are modelled jointly as opposed to a sequential application of several methods of analysis. The methods described in here have been tested only for cDNA microarrays, but can also, with some modifications, be applied to other high-throughput technologies. Keywords: High-throughput technology, microarray, cDNA, multiple scans, Bayesian hierarchical models, image analysis, experimental design, MCMC, WinBUGS.

Bayesian statistical analysis of bacterial diversity

Bacteria play an important role in many ecological systems. The molecular characterization of bacteria using either cultivation-dependent or cultivation-independent methods reveals the large scale of bacterial diversity in natural communities, and the vastness of subpopulations within a species or genus. Understanding how bacterial diversity varies across different environments and also within populations should provide insights into many important questions of bacterial evolution and population dynamics. This thesis presents novel statistical methods for analyzing bacterial diversity using widely employed molecular fingerprinting techniques. The first objective of this thesis was to develop Bayesian clustering models to identify bacterial population structures. Bacterial isolates were identified using multilous sequence typing (MLST), and Bayesian clustering models were used to explore the evolutionary relationships among isolates. Our method involves the inference of genetic population structures via an unsupervised clustering framework where the dependence between loci is represented using graphical models. The population dynamics that generate such a population stratification were investigated using a stochastic model, in which homologous recombination between subpopulations can be quantified within a gene flow network. The second part of the thesis focuses on cluster analysis of community compositional data produced by two different cultivation-independent analyses: terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) analysis, and fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) analysis. The cluster analysis aims to group bacterial communities that are similar in composition, which is an important step for understanding the overall influences of environmental and ecological perturbations on bacterial diversity. A common feature of T-RFLP and FAME data is zero-inflation, which indicates that the observation of a zero value is much more frequent than would be expected, for example, from a Poisson distribution in the discrete case, or a Gaussian distribution in the continuous case. We provided two strategies for modeling zero-inflation in the clustering framework, which were validated by both synthetic and empirical complex data sets. We show in the thesis that our model that takes into account dependencies between loci in MLST data can produce better clustering results than those methods which assume independent loci. Furthermore, computer algorithms that are efficient in analyzing large scale data were adopted for meeting the increasing computational need. Our method that detects homologous recombination in subpopulations may provide a theoretical criterion for defining bacterial species. The clustering of bacterial community data include T-RFLP and FAME provides an initial effort for discovering the evolutionary dynamics that structure and maintain bacterial diversity in the natural environment.

Statistical and Information-Theoretic Methods for Data-Analysis

In this Thesis, we develop theory and methods for computational data analysis. The problems in data analysis are approached from three perspectives: statistical learning theory, the Bayesian framework, and the information-theoretic minimum description length (MDL) principle. Contributions in statistical learning theory address the possibility of generalization to unseen cases, and regression analysis with partially observed data with an application to mobile device positioning. In the second part of the Thesis, we discuss so called Bayesian network classifiers, and show that they are closely related to logistic regression models. In the final part, we apply the MDL principle to tracing the history of old manuscripts, and to noise reduction in digital signals.

Evolutionary Genomics of Prokaryotic Viruses

Evolutionary history of biological entities is recorded within their nucleic acid sequences and can (sometimes) be deciphered by thorough genomic analysis. In this study we sought to gain insights into the diversity and evolution of bacterial and archaeal viruses. Our primary interest was pointed towards those virus groups/families for which comprehensive genomic analysis was not previously possible due to the lack of sufficient amount of genomic data. During the course of this work twenty-five putative proviruses integrated into various prokaryotic genomes were identified, enabling us to undertake a comparative genomics approach. This analysis allowed us to test the previously formulated evolutionary hypotheses and also provided valuable information on the molecular mechanisms behind the genome evolution of the studied virus groups.

Mu in vitro Transposition Technology in Functional Genetics and Genomics: Applications on Mouse and Bacteriophages

Transposons are mobile elements of genetic material that are able to move in the genomes of their host organisms using a special form of recombination called transposition. Bacteriophage Mu was the first transposon for which a cell-free in vitro transposition reaction was developed. Subsequently, the reaction has been refined and the minimal Mu in vitro reaction is useful in the generation of comprehensive libraries of mutant DNA molecules that can be used in a variety of applications. To date, the functional genetics applications of Mu in vitro technology have been subjected to either plasmids or genomic regions and entire genomes of viruses cloned on specific vectors. This study expands the use of Mu in vitro transposition in functional genetics and genomics by describing novel methods applicable to the targeted transgenesis of mouse and the whole-genome analysis of bacteriophages. The methods described here are rapid, efficient, and easily applicable to a wide variety of organisms, demonstrating the potential of the Mu transposition technology in the functional analysis of genes and genomes. First, an easy-to-use, rapid strategy to generate construct for the targeted mutagenesis of mouse genes was developed. To test the strategy, a gene encoding a neuronal K+/Cl- cotransporter was mutagenised. After a highly efficient transpositional mutagenesis, the gene fragments mutagenised were cloned into a vector backbone and transferred into bacterial cells. These constructs were screened with PCR using an effective 3D matrix system. In addition to traditional knock-out constructs, the method developed yields hypomorphic alleles that lead into reduced expression of the target gene in transgenic mice and have since been used in a follow-up study. Moreover, a scheme is devised to rapidly produce conditional alleles from the constructs produced. Next, an efficient strategy for the whole-genome analysis of bacteriophages was developed based on the transpositional mutagenesis of uncloned, infective virus genomes and their subsequent transfer into susceptible host cells. Mutant viruses able to produce viable progeny were collected and their transposon integration sites determined to map genomic regions nonessential to the viral life cycle. This method, applied here to three very different bacteriophages, PRD1, ΦYeO3 12, and PM2, does not require the target genome to be cloned and is directly applicable to all DNA and RNA viruses that have infective genomes. The method developed yielded valuable novel information on the three bacteriophages studied and whole-genome data can be complemented with concomitant studies on individual genes. Moreover, end-modified transposons constructed for this study can be used to manipulate genomes devoid of suitable restriction sites.

Conceptual and statistical modelling of environmental effects in population dynamics

Population dynamics are generally viewed as the result of intrinsic (purely density dependent) and extrinsic (environmental) processes. Both components, and potential interactions between those two, have to be modelled in order to understand and predict dynamics of natural populations; a topic that is of great importance in population management and conservation. This thesis focuses on modelling environmental effects in population dynamics and how effects of potentially relevant environmental variables can be statistically identified and quantified from time series data. Chapter I presents some useful models of multiplicative environmental effects for unstructured density dependent populations. The presented models can be written as standard multiple regression models that are easy to fit to data. Chapters II IV constitute empirical studies that statistically model environmental effects on population dynamics of several migratory bird species with different life history characteristics and migration strategies. In Chapter II, spruce cone crops are found to have a strong positive effect on the population growth of the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), while cone crops of pine another important food resource for the species do not effectively explain population growth. The study compares rate- and ratio-dependent effects of cone availability, using state-space models that distinguish between process and observation error in the time series data. Chapter III shows how drought, in combination with settling behaviour during migration, produces asymmetric spatially synchronous patterns of population dynamics in North American ducks (genus Anas). Chapter IV investigates the dynamics of a Finnish population of skylark (Alauda arvensis), and point out effects of rainfall and habitat quality on population growth. Because the skylark time series and some of the environmental variables included show strong positive autocorrelation, the statistical significances are calculated using a Monte Carlo method, where random autocorrelated time series are generated. Chapter V is a simulation-based study, showing that ignoring observation error in analyses of population time series data can bias the estimated effects and measures of uncertainty, if the environmental variables are autocorrelated. It is concluded that the use of state-space models is an effective way to reach more accurate results. In summary, there are several biological assumptions and methodological issues that can affect the inferential outcome when estimating environmental effects from time series data, and that therefore need special attention. The functional form of the environmental effects and potential interactions between environment and population density are important to deal with. Other issues that should be considered are assumptions about density dependent regulation, modelling potential observation error, and when needed, accounting for spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation.

Gene Expression : From Microarrays to Functional Genomics

The time of the large sequencing projects has enabled unprecedented possibilities of investigating more complex aspects of living organisms. Among the high-throughput technologies based on the genomic sequences, the DNA microarrays are widely used for many purposes, including the measurement of the relative quantity of the messenger RNAs. However, the reliability of microarrays has been strongly doubted as robust analysis of the complex microarray output data has been developed only after the technology had already been spread in the community. An objective of this study consisted of increasing the performance of microarrays, and was measured by the successful validation of the results by independent techniques. To this end, emphasis has been given to the possibility of selecting candidate genes with remarkable biological significance within specific experimental design. Along with literature evidence, the re-annotation of the probes and model-based normalization algorithms were found to be beneficial when analyzing Affymetrix GeneChip data. Typically, the analysis of microarrays aims at selecting genes whose expression is significantly different in different conditions followed by grouping them in functional categories, enabling a biological interpretation of the results. Another approach investigates the global differences in the expression of functionally related groups of genes. Here, this technique has been effective in discovering patterns related to temporal changes during infection of human cells. Another aspect explored in this thesis is related to the possibility of combining independent gene expression data for creating a catalog of genes that are selectively expressed in healthy human tissues. Not all the genes present in human cells are active; some involved in basic activities (named housekeeping genes) are expressed ubiquitously. Other genes (named tissue-selective genes) provide more specific functions and they are expressed preferably in certain cell types or tissues. Defining the tissue-selective genes is also important as these genes can cause disease with phenotype in the tissues where they are expressed. The hypothesis that gene expression could be used as a measure of the relatedness of the tissues has been also proved. Microarray experiments provide long lists of candidate genes that are often difficult to interpret and prioritize. Extending the power of microarray results is possible by inferring the relationships of genes under certain conditions. Gene transcription is constantly regulated by the coordinated binding of proteins, named transcription factors, to specific portions of the its promoter sequence. In this study, the analysis of promoters from groups of candidate genes has been utilized for predicting gene networks and highlighting modules of transcription factors playing a central role in the regulation of their transcription. Specific modules have been found regulating the expression of genes selectively expressed in the hippocampus, an area of the brain having a central role in the Major Depression Disorder. Similarly, gene networks derived from microarray results have elucidated aspects of the development of the mesencephalon, another region of the brain involved in Parkinson Disease.

Asteroid identification using statistical orbital inversion methods

An efficient and statistically robust solution for the identification of asteroids among numerous sets of astrometry is presented. In particular, numerical methods have been developed for the short-term identification of asteroids at discovery, and for the long-term identification of scarcely observed asteroids over apparitions, a task which has been lacking a robust method until now. The methods are based on the solid foundation of statistical orbital inversion properly taking into account the observational uncertainties, which allows for the detection of practically all correct identifications. Through the use of dimensionality-reduction techniques and efficient data structures, the exact methods have a loglinear, that is, O(nlog(n)), computational complexity, where n is the number of included observation sets. The methods developed are thus suitable for future large-scale surveys which anticipate a substantial increase in the astrometric data rate. Due to the discontinuous nature of asteroid astrometry, separate sets of astrometry must be linked to a common asteroid from the very first discovery detections onwards. The reason for the discontinuity in the observed positions is the rotation of the observer with the Earth as well as the motion of the asteroid and the observer about the Sun. Therefore, the aim of identification is to find a set of orbital elements that reproduce the observed positions with residuals similar to the inevitable observational uncertainty. Unless the astrometric observation sets are linked, the corresponding asteroid is eventually lost as the uncertainty of the predicted positions grows too large to allow successful follow-up. Whereas the presented identification theory and the numerical comparison algorithm are generally applicable, that is, also in fields other than astronomy (e.g., in the identification of space debris), the numerical methods developed for asteroid identification can immediately be applied to all objects on heliocentric orbits with negligible effects due to non-gravitational forces in the time frame of the analysis. The methods developed have been successfully applied to various identification problems. Simulations have shown that the methods developed are able to find virtually all correct linkages despite challenges such as numerous scarce observation sets, astrometric uncertainty, numerous objects confined to a limited region on the celestial sphere, long linking intervals, and substantial parallaxes. Tens of previously unknown main-belt asteroids have been identified with the short-term method in a preliminary study to locate asteroids among numerous unidentified sets of single-night astrometry of moving objects, and scarce astrometry obtained nearly simultaneously with Earth-based and space-based telescopes has been successfully linked despite a substantial parallax. Using the long-term method, thousands of realistic 3-linkages typically spanning several apparitions have so far been found among designated observation sets each spanning less than 48 hours.