Analysts' Accuracy of Estimation and the Relative Trading Volume

This study contributes to the neglect effect literature by looking at the relative trading volume in terms of value. The results for the Swedish market show a significant positive relationship between the accuracy of estimation and the relative trading volume. Market capitalisation and analyst coverage have in prior studies been used as proxies for neglect. These measures however, do not take into account the effort analysts put in when estimating corporate pre-tax profits. I also find evidence that the industry of the firm influence the accuracy of estimation. In addition, supporting earlier findings, loss making firms are associated with larger forecasting errors. Further, I find that the average forecast error increased in the year 2000 – in Sweden.

Understorey vegetation as an indicator of forest site potential in Southern Finland.

The relationship between site characteristics and understorey vegetation composition was analysed with quantitative methods, especially from the viewpoint of site quality estimation. Theoretical models were applied to an empirical data set collected from the upland forests of southern Finland comprising 104 sites dominated by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), and 165 sites dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karsten). Site index H100 was used as an independent measure of site quality. A new model for the estimation of site quality at sites with a known understorey vegetation composition was introduced. It is based on the application of Bayes' theorem to the density function of site quality within the study area combined with the species-specific presence-absence response curves. The resulting posterior probability density function may be used for calculating an estimate for the site variable. Using this method, a jackknife estimate of site index H100 was calculated separately for pine- and spruce-dominated sites. The results indicated that the cross-validation root mean squared error (RMSEcv) of the estimates improved from 2.98 m down to 2.34 m relative to the "null" model (standard deviation of the sample distribution) in pine-dominated forests. In spruce-dominated forests RMSEcv decreased from 3.94 m down to 3.16 m. In order to assess these results, four other estimation methods based on understorey vegetation composition were applied to the same data set. The results showed that none of the methods was clearly superior to the others. In pine-dominated forests, RMSEcv varied between 2.34 and 2.47 m, and the corresponding range for spruce-dominated forests was from 3.13 to 3.57 m.

Relative Contribution of Cell Proliferation and Microvascularity to Metastasis in Malignant Uveal Melanoma

Uveal melanoma (UM) is the second most common primary intraocular cancer worldwide. It is a relatively rare cancer, but still the second most common type of primary malignant melanoma in humans. UM is a slowly growing tumor, and gives rise to distant metastasis mainly to the liver via the bloodstream. About 40% of patients with UM die of metastatic disease within 10 years of diagnosis, irrespective of the type of treatment. During the last decade, two main lines of research have aimed to achieve enhanced understanding of the metastasis process and accurate prognosis of patients with UM. One emphasizes the characteristics of tumor cells, particularly their nucleoli, and markers of proliferation, and the other the characteristics of tumor blood vessels. Of several morphometric measurements, the mean diameter of the ten largest nucleoli (MLN) has become the most widely applied. A large MLN has consistently been associated with high likelihood of dying from UM. Blood vessels are of paramount importance in metastasis of UM. Different extravascular matrix patterns can be seen in UM, like loops and networks. This presence is associated with death from metastatic melanoma. However, the density of microvessels is also of prognostic importance. This study was undertaken to help understanding some histopathological factors which might contribute to developing metastasis in UM patients. Factors which could be related to tumor progression to metastasis disease, namely nucleolar size, MLN, microvascular density (MVD), cell proliferation, and The Insulin-like Growth Factor 1 Receptor(IGF-1R), were investigated. The primary aim of this thesis was to study the relationship between prognostic factors such as tumor cell nucleolar size, proliferation, extravascular matrix patterns, and dissemination of UM, and to assess to what extent there is a relationship to metastasis. The secondary goal was to develop a multivariate model which includes MLN and cell proliferation in addition to MVD, and which would fit better with population-based, melanoma-related survival data than previous models. I studied 167 patients with UM, who developed metastasis even after a very long time following removal of the eye, metastatic disease was the main cause of death, as documented in the Finnish Cancer Registry and on death certificates. Using an independent population-based data set, it was confirmed that MLN and extravascular matrix loops and networks were unrelated, independent predictors of survival in UM. Also, it has been found that multivariate models including MVD in addition to MLN fitted significantly better with survival data than models which excluded MVD. This supports the idea that both the characteristics of the blood vessels and the cells are important, and the future direction would be to look for the gene expression profile, whether it is associated more with MVD or MLN. The former relates to the host response to the tumor and may not be as tightly associated with the gene expression profile, yet most likely involved in the process of hematogenous metastasis. Because fresh tumor material is needed for reliable genetic analysis, such analysis could not be performed Although noninvasive detection of certain extravascular matrix patterns is now technically possible,in managing patients with UM, this study and tumor genetics suggest that such noninvasive methods will not fully capture the process of clinical metastasis. Progress in resection and biopsy techniques is likely in the near future to result in fresh material for the ophthalmic pathologist to correlate angiographic data, histopathological characteristics such as MLN, and genetic data. This study supported the theory that tumors containing epithelioid cells grow faster and have poorer prognosis when studied by cell proliferation in UM based on Ki-67 immunoreactivity. Cell proliferation index fitted best with the survival data when combined with MVD, MLN, and presence of epithelioid cells. Analogous with the finding that high MVD in primary UM is associated with shorter time to metastasis than low MVD, high MVD in hepatic metastasis tends to be associated with shorter survival after diagnosis of metastasis. Because the liver is the main organ for metastasis from UM, growth factors largely produced in the liver hepatocyte growth factor, epidermal growth factor and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) together with their receptors may have a role in the homing and survival of metastatic cells. Therefore the association between immunoreactivity for IGF-1R in primary UM and metastatic death was studied. It was found that immunoreactivity for IGF-IR did not independently predict metastasis from primary UM in my series.

The challenge of LC/MS/MS multi-mycotoxin analysis - Heracles battling the Hydra?

Mycotoxins are secondary metabolites of filamentous fungi. They pose a health risk to humans and animals due to their harmful biological properties and common occurrence in food and feed. Liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry (LC/MS) has gained popularity in the trace analysis of food contaminants. In this study, the applicability of the technique was evaluated in multi-residue methods of mycotoxins aiming at simultaneous detection of chemically diverse compounds. Methods were developed for rapid determination of toxins produced by fungal genera of Aspergillus, Fusarium, Penicillium and Claviceps from cheese, cereal based agar matrices and grains. Analytes were extracted from these matrices with organic solvents. Minimal sample clean-up was carried out before the analysis of the mycotoxins with reversed phase LC coupled to tandem MS (MS/MS). The methods were validated and applied for investigating mycotoxins in cheese and ergot alkaloid occurrence in Finnish grains. Additionally, the toxin production of two Fusarium species predominant in northern Europe was studied. Nine mycotoxins could be determined from cheese with the method developed. The limits of quantification (LOQ) allowed the quantification at concentrations varying from 0.6 to 5.0 µg/kg. The recoveries ranged between 96 and 143 %, and the within-day repeatability (as relative standard deviation, RSDr) between 2.3 and 12.1 %. Roquefortine C and mycophenolic acid could be detected at levels of 300 up to 12000 µg/kg in the mould cheese samples analysed. A total of 29 or 31 toxins could be analysed with the method developed for agar matrices and grains, with the LOQs ranging overall from 0.1 to 1250 µg/kg. The recoveries ranged generally between 44 and 139 %, and the RSDr between 2.0 and 38 %. Type-A trichothecenes and beauvericin were determined from the cereal based agar and grain cultures of F. sporotrichioides and F. langsethiae. T-2 toxin was the main metabolite, the average levels reaching 22000 µg/kg in the grain cultures after 28 days of incubation. The method developed for ten ergot alkaloids from grains allowed their quantification at levels varying from 0.01 to 10 µg/kg. The recoveries ranged from 51 to 139 %, and the RSDr from 0.6 to 13.9 %. Ergot alkaloids were measured in barley and rye at average levels of 59 and 720 µg/kg, respectively. The two most prevalent alkaloids were ergocornine and ergocristine. The LC/MS methods developed enabled rapid detection of mycotoxins in such applications where several toxins co-occurred. Generally, the performance of the methods was good, allowing reliable analysis of the mycotoxins of interest with sufficiently low quantification limits. However, the variation in validation results highlighted the challenges related to optimising this type of multi-residue methods. New data was obtained about the occurrence of mycotoxins in mould cheeses and of ergot alkaloids in Finnish grains. In addition, the study revealed the high mycotoxin-producing potential of two common fungi in Finnish crops. The information can be useful when risks related to fungal and mycotoxin contamination will be assessed.