Do Households Have Rational Expectations on Future Consumption? Evidence from the Finnish Consumer Survey

Ever since its initial introduction some fifty years ago, the rational expectations paradigm has dominated the way economic theory handles uncertainty. The main assertion made by John F. Muth (1961), seen by many as the father of the paradigm, is that expectations of rational economic agents should essentially be equal to the predictions of relevant economic theory, since rational agents should use information available to them in an optimal way. This assumption often has important consequences on the results and interpretations of the models where it is applied. Although the rational expectations assumption can be applied to virtually any economic theory, the focus in this thesis is on macroeconomic theories of consumption, especially the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis proposed by Robert E. Hall in 1978. The much-debated theory suggests that, assuming that agents have rational expectations on their future income, consumption decisions should follow a random walk, and the best forecast of future consumption level is the current consumption level. Then, changes in consumption are unforecastable. This thesis constructs an empirical test for the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis using Finnish Consumer Survey data as well as various Finnish macroeconomic data. The data sample covers the years 1995–2010. Consumer survey data may be interpreted to directly represent household expectations, which makes it an interesting tool for this particular test. The variable to be predicted is the growth of total household consumption expenditure. The main empirical result is that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), a balance figure computed from the most important consumer survey responses, does have statistically significant predictive power over the change in total consumption expenditure. The history of consumption expenditure growth itself, however, fails to predict its own future values. This indicates that the CCI contains some information that the history of consumption decisions does not, and that the consumption decisions are not optimal in the theoretical context. However, when conditioned on various macroeconomic variables, the CCI loses its predictive ability. This finding suggests that the index is merely a (partial) summary of macroeconomic information, and does not contain any significant private information on consumption intentions of households not directly deductible from the objective economic variables. In conclusion, the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis is strongly rejected by the empirical results in this thesis. This result is in accordance with most earlier studies conducted on the topic.

Stereochemical and steric control of enzymatic glucuronidation : A rational approach for the design of novel Inhibitors for the human UDP-glucuronosyltransferase 2B7

The UDP-glucuronosyltransferases (UGTs) are enzymes of the phase II metabolic system. These enzymes catalyze the transfer of α-D-glucuronic acid from UDP-glucuronic acid to aglycones bearing nucleophilic groups affording exclusively their corresponding β-D-glucuronides to render lipophilic endobiotics and xenobiotics more water soluble. This detoxification pathway aids in the urinary and biliary excretion of lipophilic compounds thus preventing their accumulation to harmful levels. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of stereochemical and steric features of substrates on the glucuronidation catalyzed by UGTs 2B7 and 2B17. Furthermore, this study relates to the design and synthesis of novel, selective inhibitors that display high affinity for the key enzyme involved in drug glucuronidation, UGT2B7. The starting point for the development of inhibitors was to assess the influence of the stereochemistry of substrates on the UGT-catalyzed glucuronidation reaction. A set of 28 enantiomerically pure alcohols was subjected to glucuronidation assays employing the human UGT isoforms 2B7 and 2B17. Both UGT enzymes displayed high stereoselectivity, favoring the glucuronidation of the (R)-enantiomers over their respective mirror-image compounds. The spatial arrangement of the hydroxy group of the substrate determined the rate of the UGT-catalyzed reaction. However, the affinity of the enantiomeric substrates to the enzymes was not significantly influenced by the spatial orientation of the nucleophilic hydroxy group. Based on these results, a rational approach for the design of inhibitors was developed by addressing the stereochemical features of substrate molecules. Further studies showed that the rate of the enzymatic glucuronidation of substrates was also highly dependent on the steric demand in vicinity of the nucleophilic hydroxy group. These findings provided a rational approach to turn high-affinity substrates into true UGT inhibitors by addressing stereochemical and steric features of substrate molecules. The tricyclic sesquiterpenols longifolol and isolongifolol were identified as high-affinity substrates which displayed high selectivity for the UGT isoform 2B7. These compounds served therefore as lead structures for the design of potent and selective inhibitors for UGT2B7. Selective and potent inhibitors were prepared by synthetically modifying the lead compounds longifolol and isolongifolol taking stereochemical and steric features into account. The best inhibitor of UGT2B7, β-phenyllongifolol, displayed an inhibition constant of 0.91 nM.

Leibniz on Rational Decision-Making

In this study I discuss G. W. Leibniz's (1646-1716) views on rational decision-making from the standpoint of both God and man. The Divine decision takes place within creation, as God freely chooses the best from an infinite number of possible worlds. While God's choice is based on absolutely certain knowledge, human decisions on practical matters are mostly based on uncertain knowledge. However, in many respects they could be regarded as analogous in more complicated situations. In addition to giving an overview of the divine decision-making and discussing critically the criteria God favours in his choice, I provide an account of Leibniz's views on human deliberation, which includes some new ideas. One of these concerns is the importance of estimating probabilities in making decisions one estimates both the goodness of the act itself and its consequences as far as the desired good is concerned. Another idea is related to the plurality of goods in complicated decisions and the competition this may provoke. Thirdly, heuristic models are used to sketch situations under deliberation in order to help in making the decision. Combining the views of Marcelo Dascal, Jaakko Hintikka and Simo Knuuttila, I argue that Leibniz applied two kinds of models of rational decision-making to practical controversies, often without explicating the details. The more simple, traditional pair of scales model is best suited to cases in which one has to decide for or against some option, or to distribute goods among parties and strive for a compromise. What may be of more help in more complicated deliberations is the novel vectorial model, which is an instance of the general mathematical doctrine of the calculus of variations. To illustrate this distinction, I discuss some cases in which he apparently applied these models in different kinds of situation. These examples support the view that the models had a systematic value in his theory of practical rationality.

Opettajan ja vanhemman vuorovaikutus ja keskustelun kehykset koululaisen kehityskeskusteluissa

The aim of the study is to describe the consultation discussions between the teacher, parents and the student. The structure and the interaction of the conversation is in the focus of the study. The study explicates the organization of the interaction and orientation of the participants in the conversation. The study approaches conversation as a dynamic activity and studies it from the point of view of the participants. Assessment is one of the themes involved in the teacher-parent-student consultation discussions. Assessment as a duty of the school brings an institutional aspect in the conversation, but the ways it is implemented and expressed varies in the conversational situations. Participants communication and interaction in the situation influences the ways the consultation discussions are carried out. The framework of the study is based on the ethno methodological approach where a social situation and its meaning is seen negotiated by the participants. The interest of the study is to find out how the participants implement mutual understanding and how it can be observed in their interaction. Quantitatively, the interaction of the participants is described in the framework of the interaction analysis and linked to the socio-emotional and rational aspects of the interaction. The empirical part of the study consists of data collected with questionnaires and videotaped conversations. The main research problems of the study are, how the teachers and parents described the consultation discussions and how the interaction of the teacher, the parent and the student is organized during the conversation. The background of the study is linked to the previous studies concerning co-operation between the teacher and the parent and home-school relationship. This part of the study aims to enlighten how the consultation discussions are part of the co-operation in the school context. The questionnaires link the consultation discussions to the every day co-operation between the teacher and the family. Expectations and results described by the parents and teachers are analysed. Videotaped data is both analysed quantitatively based on interaction analysis and approached with the ethno methodological interpretation. The interest of my study is, how people participate in the situation of consultation discussion, how they orientate in it and influence the conversation. The analyses of the consultation discussions are based on the both quantitative interaction analysis and ethno methodological frame analysis. With the theoretical approach of my study I want to describe and enlighten the organization of the interaction and ways of orientation of the participants in consultation discussions. Keywords: consultation discussion, interaction, evaluation, orientation in the conversation, home-school cooperation, quantitative interaction analysis, frame analysis

Dynamics of inflation expectations in the euro area

The present study examines empirically the inflation dynamics of the euro area. The focus of the analysis is on the role of expectations in the inflation process. In six articles we relax rationality assumption and proxy expectations directly using OECD forecasts or Consensus Economics survey data. In the first four articles we estimate alternative Phillips curve specifications and find evidence that inflation cannot instantaneously adjust to changes in expectations. A possible departure of expectations from rationality seems not to be powerful enough to totally explain the persistence of euro area inflation in the New Keynesian framework. When expectations are measured directly, the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve is outperformed by the hybrid Phillips curve with an additional lagged inflation term and the New Classical Phillips curve with a lagged expectations term. The results suggest that the euro area inflation process has become more forward-looking in the recent years of low and stable inflation. Moreover, in low inflation countries, the inflation dynamics have been more forward-looking already since the late 1970s. We find evidence of substantial heterogeneity of inflation dynamics across the euro area countries. Real time data analysis suggests that in the euro area real time information matters most in the expectations term in the Phillips curve and that the balance of expectations formation is more forward- than backward-looking. Vector autoregressive (VAR) models of actual inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap are estimated in the last two articles.The VAR analysis indicates that inflation expectations, which are relatively persistent, have a significant effect on output. However,expectations seem to react to changes in both output and actual inflation, especially in the medium term. Overall, this study suggests that expectations play a central role in inflation dynamics, which should be taken into account in conducting monetary policy.

Unrealized expectations of jumps in volatility: An explanation to the low and time-varying predictive power of implied volatility

The low predictive power of implied volatility in forecasting the subsequently realized volatility is a well-documented empirical puzzle. As suggested by e.g. Feinstein (1989), Jackwerth and Rubinstein (1996), and Bates (1997), we test whether unrealized expectations of jumps in volatility could explain this phenomenon. Our findings show that expectations of infrequently occurring jumps in volatility are indeed priced in implied volatility. This has two important consequences. First, implied volatility is actually expected to exceed realized volatility over long periods of time only to be greatly less than realized volatility during infrequently occurring periods of very high volatility. Second, the slope coefficient in the classic forecasting regression of realized volatility on implied volatility is very sensitive to the discrepancy between ex ante expected and ex post realized jump frequencies. If the in-sample frequency of positive volatility jumps is lower than ex ante assessed by the market, the classic regression test tends to reject the hypothesis of informational efficiency even if markets are informationally effective.

Owners' Way or the Highway: Short-term Expectations and Owner Impatience

Increased media exposure to layoffs and corporate quarterly financial reporting have created arguable a common perception – especially favored by the media itself – that the companies have been forced to improve their financial performance from quarter to quarter. Academically the relevant question is whether the companies themselves feel that they are exposed to short-term pressure to perform even if it means that they have to compromise company’s long-term future. This paper studies this issue using results from a survey conducted among the 500 largest companies in Finland. The results show that companies in general feel moderate short-term pressure, with reasonable dispersion across firms. There seems to be a link between the degree of pressure felt, and the firm’s ownership structure, i.e. we find support for the existence of short-term versus long-term owners. We also find significant ownership related differences, in line with expectations, in how such short-term pressure is reflected in actual decision variables such as the investment criteria used.

Nonlinear mixture autoregressive model: economic applications

The aim of this dissertation is to model economic variables by a mixture autoregressive (MAR) model. The MAR model is a generalization of linear autoregressive (AR) model. The MAR -model consists of K linear autoregressive components. At any given point of time one of these autoregressive components is randomly selected to generate a new observation for the time series. The mixture probability can be constant over time or a direct function of a some observable variable. Many economic time series contain properties which cannot be described by linear and stationary time series models. A nonlinear autoregressive model such as MAR model can a plausible alternative in the case of these time series. In this dissertation the MAR model is used to model stock market bubbles and a relationship between inflation and the interest rate. In the case of the inflation rate we arrived at the MAR model where inflation process is less mean reverting in the case of high inflation than in the case of normal inflation. The interest rate move one-for-one with expected inflation. We use the data from the Livingston survey as a proxy for inflation expectations. We have found that survey inflation expectations are not perfectly rational. According to our results information stickiness play an important role in the expectation formation. We also found that survey participants have a tendency to underestimate inflation. A MAR model has also used to model stock market bubbles and crashes. This model has two regimes: the bubble regime and the error correction regime. In the error correction regime price depends on a fundamental factor, the price-dividend ratio, and in the bubble regime, price is independent of fundamentals. In this model a stock market crash is usually caused by a regime switch from a bubble regime to an error-correction regime. According to our empirical results bubbles are related to a low inflation. Our model also imply that bubbles have influences investment return distribution in both short and long run.