9 resultados para Projections temporelles

em Helda - Digital Repository of University of Helsinki


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The concept of an atomic decomposition was introduced by Coifman and Rochberg (1980) for weighted Bergman spaces on the unit disk. By the Riemann mapping theorem, functions in every simply connected domain in the complex plane have an atomic decomposition. However, a decomposition resulting from a conformal mapping of the unit disk tends to be very implicit and often lacks a clear connection to the geometry of the domain that it has been mapped into. The lattice of points, where the atoms of the decomposition are evaluated, usually follows the geometry of the original domain, but after mapping the domain into another this connection is easily lost and the layout of points becomes seemingly random. In the first article we construct an atomic decomposition directly on a weighted Bergman space on a class of regulated, simply connected domains. The construction uses the geometric properties of the regulated domain, but does not explicitly involve any conformal Riemann map from the unit disk. It is known that the Bergman projection is not bounded on the space L-infinity of bounded measurable functions. Taskinen (2004) introduced the locally convex spaces LV-infinity consisting of measurable and HV-infinity of analytic functions on the unit disk with the latter being a closed subspace of the former. They have the property that the Bergman projection is continuous from LV-infinity onto HV-infinity and, in some sense, the space HV-infinity is the smallest possible substitute to the space H-infinity of analytic functions. In the second article we extend the above result to a smoothly bounded strictly pseudoconvex domain. Here the related reproducing kernels are usually not known explicitly, and thus the proof of continuity of the Bergman projection is based on generalised Forelli-Rudin estimates instead of integral representations. The minimality of the space LV-infinity is shown by using peaking functions first constructed by Bell (1981). Taskinen (2003) showed that on the unit disk the space HV-infinity admits an atomic decomposition. This result is generalised in the third article by constructing an atomic decomposition for the space HV-infinity on a smoothly bounded strictly pseudoconvex domain. In this case every function can be presented as a linear combination of atoms such that the coefficient sequence belongs to a suitable Köthe co-echelon space.

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From Steely Nation-State Superman to Conciliator of Economical Global Empire – A Psychohistory of Finnish Police Culture 1930-1997 My study concerns the way police culture has changed within the societal changes in Finnish society between 1930 and 1997. The method of my study was psycho-historical and post-structural analysis. The research was conducted by examining the psycho-historical plateaus traceable within Finnish police culture. I made a social diagnosis of the autopoietic relationship between the power-holders of Finnish society and the police (at various levels of hierarchical organization). According to police researcher John P. Crank, police culture should be understood as the cognitive processes behind the actions of the police. Among these processes are the values, beliefs, rituals, customs and advice which standardize their work and the common sense of policemen. According to Crank, police culture is defined by a mindset which thinks, judges and acts according to its evaluations filtered by its own preliminary comprehension. Police culture consists of all the unsaid assumptions of being a policeman, the organizational structures of police, official policies, unofficial ways of behaviour, forms of arrest, procedures of practice and different kinds of training habits, attitudes towards suspects and citizens, and also possible corruption. Police culture channels its members’ feelings and emotions. Crank says that police culture can be seen in how policemen express their feelings. He advises police researchers to ask themselves how it feels to be a member of the police. Ethos has been described as a communal frame for thought that guides one’s actions. According to sociologist Martti Grönfors, the Finnish mentality of the Protestant ethic is accentuated among Finnish policemen. The concept of ethos expresses very well the self-made mentality as an ethical tension which prevails in police work between communal belonging and individual freedom of choice. However, it is significant that it is a matter of the quality of relationships, and that the relationship is always tied to the context of the cultural history of dealing with one’s anxiety. According to criminologist Clifford Shearing, the values of police culture act as subterranean processes of the maintenance of social power in society. Policemen have been called microcosmic mediators, or street corner politicians. Robert Reiner argues that at the level of self-comprehension, policemen disparage the dimension of politics in their work. Reiner points out that all relationships which hold a dimension of power are political. Police culture has also been called a canteen culture. This idea expresses the day-to-day basis of the mentality of taking care of business which policing produces as a necessity for dealing with everyday hardships. According to police researcher Timo Korander, this figurative expression embodies the nature of police culture as a crew culture which is partly hidden from police chiefs who are at a different level. This multitude of standpoints depicts the diversity of police cultures. According to Reiner, one should not see police culture as one monolithic whole; instead one should assess it as the interplay of individuals negotiating with their environment and societal power networks. The cases analyzed formed different plateaus of study. The first plateau was the so-called ‘Rovaniemi arson’ case in the summer of 1930. The second plateau consisted of the examinations of alleged police assaults towards the Communists during the Finnish Continuation War of 1941 to 1944 and the threats that societal change after the war posed to Finnish Society. The third plateau was thematic. Here I investigated how using force towards police clients has changed culturally from the 1930s to the 1980s. The fourth plateau concerned with the material produced by the Security Police detectives traced the interaction between Soviet KGB agents and Finnish politicians during the long 1970s. The fifth plateau of larger changes in Finnish police culture then occurred during the 1980s as an aftermath of the former decade. The last, sixth plateau of changing relationships between policing and the national logic of action can be seen in the murder of two policemen in the autumn of 1997. My study shows that police culture has transformed from a “stone cold” steely fixed identity towards a more relational identity that tries to solve problems by negotiating with clients instead of using excessive force. However, in this process of change there is a traceable paradox in Finnish policing and police culture. On the one hand, policemen have, at the practical level, constructed their policing identity by protecting their inner self in their organizational role at work against the projections of anger and fear in society. On the other hand, however, they have had to safeguard themselves at the emotional level against the predominance of this same organizational role. Because of this dilemma they must simultaneously construct both a distance from their own role as police officers and the role of the police itself. This makes the task of policing susceptible to the political pressures of society. In an era of globalization, and after the heyday of the welfare state, this can produce heightened challenges for Finnish police culture.

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The United States is the world s single biggest market area, where the demand for graphic papers has increased by 80 % during the last three decades. However, during the last two decades there have been very big unpredictable changes in the graphic paper markets. For example, the consumption of newsprint started to decline from the late 1980 s, which was surprising compared to the historical consumption and projections. The consumption has declined since. The aim of this study was to see how magazine paper consumption will develop in the United States until 2030. The long-term consumption projection was made using mainly two methods. The first method was to use trend analysis to see how and if the consumption has changed since 1980. The second method was to use qualitative estimate. These estimates are then compared to the so-called classical model projections, which are usually mentioned and used in forestry literature. The purpose of the qualitative analysis is to study magazine paper end-use purposes and to analyze how and with what intensity the changes in society will effect to magazine paper consumption in the long-term. The framework of this study covers theories such as technology adaptation, electronic substitution, electronic publishing and Porter s threat of substitution. Because this study deals with markets, which have showed signs of structural change, a very substantial part of this study covers recent development and newest possible studies and statistics. The following were among the key findings of this study. Different end-uses have very different kinds of future. Electronic substitution is very likely in some end-use purposes, but not in all. Young people i.e. future consumers have very different manners, habits and technological opportunities than our parents did. These will have substantial effects in magazine paper consumption in the long-term. This study concludes to the fact that the change in magazine paper consumption is more likely to be gradual (evolutionary) than sudden collapse (revolutionary). It is also probable that the years of fast growing consumption of magazine papers are behind. Besides the decelerated growth, the consumption of magazine papers will decline slowly in the long-term. The decline will be faster depending on how far in the future we ll extend the study to.

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Large carnivore populations are currently recovering from past extirpation efforts and expanding back into their original habitats. At the same time human activities have resulted in very few wilderness areas left with suitable habitats and size large enough to maintain populations of large carnivores without human contact. Consequently the long-term future of large carnivores depends on their successful integration into landscapes where humans live. Thus, understanding their behaviour and interaction with surrounding habitats is of utmost importance in the development of management strategies for large carnivores. This applies also to brown bears (Ursus arctos) that were almost exterminated from Scandinavia and Finland at the turn of the century, but are now expanding their range with the current population estimates being approximately 2600 bears in Scandinavia and 840 in Finland. This thesis focuses on the large-scale habitat use and population dynamics of brown bears in Scandinavia with the objective to develop modelling approaches that support the management of bear populations. Habitat analysis shows that bear home ranges occur mainly in forested areas with a low level of human influence relative to surrounding areas. Habitat modelling based on these findings allows identification and quantification of the potentially suitable areas for bears in Scandinavia. Additionally, this thesis presents novel improvements to home range estimation that enable realistic estimates of the effective area required for the bears to establish a home range. This is achieved through fitting to the radio-tracking data to establish the amount of temporal autocorrelation and the proportion of time spent in different habitat types. Together these form a basis for the landscape-level management of the expanding population. Successful management of bears requires also assessment of the consequences of harvest on the population viability. An individual-based simulation model, accounting for the sexually selected infanticide, was used to investigate the possibility of increasing the harvest using different hunting strategies, such as trophy harvest of males. The results indicated that the population can sustain twice the current harvest rate. However, harvest should be changed gradually while carefully monitoring the population growth as some effects of increased harvest may manifest themselves only after a time-delay. The results and methodological improvements in this thesis can be applied to the Finnish bear population and to other large carnivores. They provide grounds for the further development of spatially-realistic management-oriented models of brow bear dynamics that can make projections of the future distribution of bears while accounting for the development of human activities.

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Sea level rise is among the most worrying consequences of climate change, and the biggest uncertainty of sea level predictions lies in the future behaviour of the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. In this work, a literature review is made concerning the future of the Greenland ice sheet and the effect of its melting on Baltic Sea level. The relation between sea level and ice sheets is also considered more generally from a theoretical and historical point of view. Lately, surprisingly rapid changes in the amount of ice discharging into the sea have been observed along the coastal areas of the ice sheets, and the mass deficit of Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets which are considered vulnerable to warming has been increasing from the 1990s. The changes are probably related to atmospheric or oceanic temperature variations which affect the flow speed of ice either via meltwater penetrating to the bottom of the ice sheet or via changes in the flow resistance generated by the floating parts of an ice stream. These phenomena are assumed to increase the mass deficit of the ice sheets in the warming climate; however, there is no comprehensive theory to explain and model them. Thus, it is not yet possible to make reliable predictions of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. On the grounds of the historical evidence it appears that sea level can rise rather rapidly, 1 2 metres per century, even during warm climate periods. Sea level rise projections of similar magnitude have been made with so-called semiempirical methods that are based on modelling the link between sea level and global mean temperature. Such a rapid rise would require considerable acceleration of the ice sheet flow. Stronger rise appears rather unlikely, among other things because the mountainous coastline restricts ice discharge from Greenland. The upper limit of sea level rise from Greenland alone has been estimated at half a metre by the end of this century. Due to changes in the Earth s gravity field, the sea level rise caused by melting ice is not spatially uniform. Near the melting ice sheet the sea level rise is considerably smaller than the global average, whereas farther away it is slightly greater than the average. Because of this phenomenon, the effect of the Greenland ice sheet on Baltic Sea level will probably be rather small during this century, 15 cm at most. Melting of the Antarctic ice sheet is clearly more dangerous for the Baltic Sea, but also very uncertain. It is likely that the sea level predictions will become more accurate in the near future as the ice sheet models develop.

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This study presents a population projection for Namibia for years 2011–2020. In many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, including Namibia, the population growth is still continuing even though the fertility rates have declined. However, many of these countries suffer from a large HIV epidemic that is slowing down the population growth. In Namibia, the epidemic has been severe. Therefore, it is important to assess the effect of HIV/AIDS on the population of Namibia in the future. Demographic research on Namibia has not been very extensive, and data on population is not widely available. According to the studies made, fertility has been shown to be generally declining and mortality has been significantly increasing due to AIDS. Previous population projections predict population growth for Namibia in the near future, yet HIV/AIDS is affecting the future population developments. For the projection constructed in this study, data on population is taken from the two most recent censuses, from 1991 and 2001. Data on HIV is available from HIV Sentinel Surveys 1992–2008, which test pregnant women for HIV in antenatal clinics. Additional data are collected from different sources and recent studies. The projection is made with software (EPP and Spectrum) specially designed for developing countries with scarce data. The projection includes two main scenarios which have different assumptions concerning the development of the HIV epidemic. In addition, two hypothetical scenarios are made: the first considering the case where HIV epidemic would never have existed and the second considering the case where HIV treatment would never have existed. The results indicate population growth for Namibia. Population in the 2001 census was 1.83 million and is projected to result in 2.38/2.39 million in 2020 in the first two scenarios. Without HIV, population would be 2.61 million and without treatment 2.30 million in 2020. Urban population is growing faster than rural. Even though AIDS is increasing mortality, the past high fertility rates still keep young adult age groups quite large. The HIV epidemic shows to be slowing down, but it is still increasing the mortality of the working-aged population. The initiation of HIV treatment in 2004 in the public sector seems to have had an effect on many projected indicators, diminishing the impact of HIV on the population. For example, the rise of mortality is slowing down.

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Projections concerning the long-term outlook of the social security schemes administered by the Social Insurance Institution of Finland (Kela) are made regularly by the Institution’s Actuarial Section. The report at hand was compiled with the help of an aggregate model devised by the Actuarial Section. In the model, various universal factors influencing benefit trends are consolidated and the interactions between individual benefits are taken into account. The demographic forecasts underlying the report have also been made by the Actuarial Section. Estimates of income and administrative costs have been made in cooperation with the Financial Planning Section.

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Leevi Haapala explores moving image works, sculptures and installations from a psychoanalytic perspective in his study The Unconscious in Contemporary Art. The Gaze, Voice and Time in Finnish Contemporary Art at the Turn of the Millennium . The artists included in the study are Eija-Liisa Ahtila, Hans-Christian Berg, Markus Copper, Liisa Lounila and Salla Tykkä. The theoretical framework includes different psychoanalytic readings of the concepts of the gaze, voice and temporality. The installations are based on spatiality and temporality, and their detailed reading emphasizes the medium-specific features of the works as well as their fragmentary nature, heterogeneity and affectivity. The study is cross-disciplinary in that it connects perspectives from the visual culture, new art history and theory to the interpretation of contemporary art. The most important concepts from psychoanalysis, affect theory and trauma discourse used in the study include affect, object a (objet petit a) as articulated by Jacques Lacan, Sigmund Freud s uncanny (das Unheimliche) and trauma. Das Unheimliche has been translated as uncanny in art history under the influence of Rosalind Krauss. The object of the study, the unconscious in contemporary art, is approached through these concepts. The study focuses on Lacan s additions to the list of partial drives: the gaze and voice as scopic and invocative drives and their interpretations in the studies of the moving image. The texts by the American film theorist and art historian Kaja Silverman are in crucial role. The study locates contemporary art as part of trauma culture, which has a tendency to define individual and historical experiences through trauma. Some of the art works point towards trauma, which may appear as a theoretic or fictitious construction. The study presents a comprehensive collection of different kinds of trauma discourse in the field of art research through the texts of Hal Foster, Cathy Caruth, Ruth Leys and Shoshana Felman. The study connects trauma theory with the theoretical analysis of the interference and discontinuity of the moving image in the readings by Susan Buck-Morss, Mary Ann Doane and Peter Osborn among others. The analysis emphasizes different ways of seeing and multisensoriality in the reception of contemporary art. With their reflections and inverse projections, the surprising mechanisms of Hans-Christian Berg s sculptures are connected with Lacan s views on the early mirroring and imitation attempts of the individual s body image. Salla Tykkä s film trilogy Cave invites one to contemplate the Lacanian theory of the gaze in relation to the experiences of being seen. The three oceanic sculpture installations by Markus Copper are studied through the vocality they create, often through an aggressive way of acting, as well as from the point of view of the functioning of an invocative drive. The study compares the work of fiction and Freud s texts on paranoia and psychosis to Eija-Liisa Ahtila s manuscripts and moving image installations about the same topic. The cinematic time in Liisa Lounila s time-slice video installations is approached through the theoretical study of the unconscious temporal structure. The viewer of the moving image is inside the work in an in-between state: in a space produced by the contents of the work and its technology. The installations of the moving image enable us to inhabit different kinds of virtual bodies or spaces, which do not correspond with our everyday experiences. Nevertheless, the works of art often try to deconstruct the identification to what has been shown on screen. This way, the viewer s attention can be fixed on his own unconscious experiences in parallel with the work s deconstructed nature as representation. The study shows that contemporary art is a central cultural practice, which allows us to discuss the unconscious in a meaningful way. The study suggests that the agency that is discursively diffuse and consists of several different praxes should be called the unconscious. The emergence of the unconscious can happen in two areas: in contemporary art through different senses and discursive elements, and in the study of contemporary art, which, being a linguistic activity is sensitive to the movements of the unconscious. One of the missions of art research is to build different kinds of articulated constructs and to open an interpretative space for the nature of art as an event.

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Raportissa on arvioitu ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutusta Suomen maaperän talviaikaiseen jäätymiseen lämpösummien perusteella. Laskelmat kuvaavat roudan paksuutta nimenomaisesti lumettomilla alueilla, esimerkiksi teillä, joilta satanut lumi aurataan pois. Luonnossa lämpöä eristävän lumipeitteen alla routaa on ohuemmin kuin tällaisilla lumettomilla alueilla. Toisaalta luonnollisessa ympäristössä paikalliset erot korostuvat johtuen mm. maalajeista ja kasvillisuudesta. Roudan paksuudet laskettiin ensin perusjakson 1971–2000 ilmasto-oloissa talviaikaisten säähavaintotietoihin pohjautuvien lämpötilojen perusteella. Sen jälkeen laskelmat toistettiin kolmelle tulevalle ajanjaksolle (2010–2039, 2040–2069 ja 2070–2099) kohottamalla lämpötiloja ilmastonmuutosmallien ennustamalla tavalla. Laskelman pohjana käytettiin 19 ilmastomallin A1B-skenaarioajojen keskimäärin simuloimaa lämpötilan muutosta. Tulosten herkkyyden arvioimiseksi joitakin laskelmia tehtiin myös tätä selvästi heikompaa ja voimakkaampaa lämpenemisarviota käyttäen. A1B-skenaarion mukaisen lämpötilan nousun toteutuessa nykyisiä mallituloksia vastaavasti routakerros ohenee sadan vuoden aikana Pohjois-Suomessa 30–40 %, suuressa osassa maan keski- ja eteläosissa 50–70 %. Jo lähivuosikymmeninä roudan ennustetaan ohentuvan 10–30 %, saaristossa enemmän. Mikäli lämpeneminen toteutuisi voimakkaimman tarkastellun vaihtoehdon mukaisesti, roudan syvyys pienenisi tätäkin enemmän. Roudan paksuuden vuosienvälistä vaihtelua ja sen muuttumista tulevaisuudessa pyrittiin myös arvioimaan. Leutoina talvina routa ohenee enemmän kuin normaaleina tai ankarina pakkastalvina. Päivittäistä sään vaihtelua simuloineen säägeneraattorin tuottamassa aineistoissa esiintyi kuitenkin liian vähän hyvin alhaisia ja hyvin korkeita lämpötiloja. Siksi näitten lämpötilatietojen pohjalta laskettu roudan paksuuskin ilmeisesti vaihtelee liian vähän vuodesta toiseen. Kelirikkotilanteita voi esiintyä myös kesken routakauden, jos useamman päivän suojasää ja samanaikainen runsas vesisade pääsevät sulattamaan maata. Tällaiset routakauden aikana sattuvat säätilat näyttävätkin yleistyvän lähivuosikymmeninä. Vuosisadan loppua kohti ne sen sijaan maan eteläosissa jälleen vähenevät, koska routakausi lyhenee oleellisesti. Tulevia vuosikymmeniä koskevien ilmastonmuutosennusteiden ohella routaa ja kelirikon esiintymistä on periaatteessa mahdollista ennustaa myös lähiaikojen sääennusteita hyödyntäen. Pitkät, viikkojen tai kuukausien mittaiset sääennusteet eivät tosin ole ainakaan vielä erityisen luotettavia, mutta myös lyhyemmistä ennusteista voisi olla hyötyä mm. tienpitoa suunniteltaessa.