Search for standard model Higgs boson production in association with a W boson using a neural network discriminant at CDF

We present a search for standard model Higgs boson production in association with a W boson in proton-antiproton collisions at a center of mass energy of 1.96 TeV. The search employs data collected with the CDF II detector that correspond to an integrated luminosity of approximately 1.9 inverse fb. We select events consistent with a signature of a single charged lepton, missing transverse energy, and two jets. Jets corresponding to bottom quarks are identified with a secondary vertex tagging method, a jet probability tagging method, and a neural network filter. We use kinematic information in an artificial neural network to improve discrimination between signal and background compared to previous analyses. The observed number of events and the neural network output distributions are consistent with the standard model background expectations, and we set 95% confidence level upper limits on the production cross section times branching fraction ranging from 1.2 to 1.1 pb or 7.5 to 102 times the standard model expectation for Higgs boson masses from 110 to $150 GeV/c^2, respectively.

Search for Anomalous Production of Events with a Photon, Jet, b-quark Jet, and Missing Transverse Energy

We present a signature-based search for anomalous production of events containing a photon, two jets, of which at least one is identified as originating from a b quark, and missing transverse energy. The search uses data corresponding to 2.0/fb of integrated luminosity from p-pbar collisions at a center-of-mass energy of sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV, collected with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. From 6,697,466 events with a photon candidate with transverse energy ET> 25 GeV, we find 617 events with missing transverse energy > 25 GeV and two or more jets with ET> 15 GeV, at least one identified as originating from a b quark, versus an expectation of 607+- 113 events. Increasing the requirement on missing transverse energy to 50 GeV, we find 28 events versus an expectation of 30+-11 events. We find no indications of non-standard-model phenomena.

Search for Anomalous Production of Events with Two Photons and Additional Energetic Objects at CDF

We present results of a search for anomalous production of two photons together with an electron, muon, $\tau$ lepton, missing transverse energy, or jets using $p\bar{p}$ collision data from 1.1-2.0 fb$^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity collected by the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF). The event yields and kinematic distributions are examined for signs of new physics without favoring a specific model of new physics. The results are consistent with the standard model expectations. The search employs several new analysis techniques that significantly reduce instrumental backgrounds in channels with an electron and missing transverse energy.

Hedging Options with Different Time Units in the Pricing Models

This study examined the effects of the Greeks of the options and the trading results of delta hedging strategies, with three different time units or option-pricing models. These time units were calendar time, trading time and continuous time using discrete approximation (CTDA) time. The CTDA time model is a pricing model, that among others accounts for intraday and weekend, patterns in volatility. For the CTDA time model some additional theta measures, which were believed to be usable in trading, were developed. The study appears to verify that there were differences in the Greeks with different time units. It also revealed that these differences influence the delta hedging of options or portfolios. Although it is difficult to say anything about which is the most usable of the different time models, as this much depends on the traders view of the passing of time, different market conditions and different portfolios, the CTDA time model can be viewed as an attractive alternative.

Dual-trap optical tweezers with real-time force clamp control

Single molecule force clamp experiments are widely used to investigate how enzymes, molecular motors, and other molecular mechanisms work. We developed a dual-trap optical tweezers instrument with real-time (200 kHz update rate) force clamp control that can exert 0–100 pN forces on trapped beads. A model for force clamp experiments in the dumbbell-geometry is presented. We observe good agreement between predicted and observed power spectra of bead position and force fluctuations. The model can be used to predict and optimize the dynamics of real-time force clamp optical tweezers instruments. The results from a proof-of-principle experiment in which lambda exonuclease converts a double-stranded DNA tether, held at constant tension, into its single-stranded form, show that the developed instrument is suitable for experiments in single molecule biology.

Bootstrap and Fast Double Bootstrap Tests of Cointegration Rank with Financial Time Series

The likelihood ratio test of cointegration rank is the most widely used test for cointegration. Many studies have shown that its finite sample distribution is not well approximated by the limiting distribution. The article introduces and evaluates by Monte Carlo simulation experiments bootstrap and fast double bootstrap (FDB) algorithms for the likelihood ratio test. It finds that the performance of the bootstrap test is very good. The more sophisticated FDB produces a further improvement in cases where the performance of the asymptotic test is very unsatisfactory and the ordinary bootstrap does not work as well as it might. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo simulations provide a number of guidelines on when the bootstrap and FDB tests can be expected to work well. Finally, the tests are applied to US interest rates and international stock prices series. It is found that the asymptotic test tends to overestimate the cointegration rank, while the bootstrap and FDB tests choose the correct cointegration rank.

The Power of Bootstrap Tests of Cointegration Rank with Financial Time Series

Bootstrap likelihood ratio tests of cointegration rank are commonly used because they tend to have rejection probabilities that are closer to the nominal level than the rejection probabilities of the correspond- ing asymptotic tests. The e¤ect of bootstrapping the test on its power is largely unknown. We show that a new computationally inexpensive procedure can be applied to the estimation of the power function of the bootstrap test of cointegration rank. The bootstrap test is found to have a power function close to that of the level-adjusted asymp- totic test. The bootstrap test estimates the level-adjusted power of the asymptotic test highly accurately. The bootstrap test may have low power to reject the null hypothesis of cointegration rank zero, or underestimate the cointegration rank. An empirical application to Euribor interest rates is provided as an illustration of the findings.

Measurement of the ttbar production cross section with an in situ calibration of b-jet identification efficiency

A measurement of the top-quark pair-production cross section in ppbar collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.12/fb collected with the Collider Detector at Fermilab is presented. Decays of top-quark pairs into the final states e nu + jets and mu nu + jets are selected, and the cross section and the b-jet identification efficiency are determined using a new measurement technique which requires that the measured cross sections with exactly one and multiple identified b-quarks from the top-quark decays agree. Assuming a top-quark mass of 175 GeV/c^2, a cross section of 8.5+/-0.6(stat.)+/-0.7(syst.) pb is measured.

Search for the associated production of the standard-model Higgs boson in the all-hadronic channel

"We report on a search for the standard-model Higgs boson in pp collisions at s=1.96 TeV using an integrated luminosity of 2.0 fb(-1). We look for production of the Higgs boson decaying to a pair of bottom quarks in association with a vector boson V (W or Z) decaying to quarks, resulting in a four-jet final state. Two of the jets are required to have secondary vertices consistent with B-hadron decays. We set the first 95% confidence level upper limit on the VH production cross section with V(-> qq/qq('))H(-> bb) decay for Higgs boson masses of 100-150 GeV/c(2) using data from run II at the Fermilab Tevatron. For m(H)=120 GeV/c(2), we exclude cross sections larger than 38 times the standard-model prediction."

Search for the associated production of the standard-model Higgs boson in the all-hadronic channel

"We report on a search for the standard-model Higgs boson in pp collisions at s=1.96 TeV using an integrated luminosity of 2.0 fb(-1). We look for production of the Higgs boson decaying to a pair of bottom quarks in association with a vector boson V (W or Z) decaying to quarks, resulting in a four-jet final state. Two of the jets are required to have secondary vertices consistent with B-hadron decays. We set the first 95% confidence level upper limit on the VH production cross section with V(-> qq/qq('))H(-> bb) decay for Higgs boson masses of 100-150 GeV/c(2) using data from run II at the Fermilab Tevatron. For m(H)=120 GeV/c(2), we exclude cross sections larger than 38 times the standard-model prediction."

Egg production in furnished cages

In the European Union, conventional cages for laying hens will be faded out at the beginning of 2012. The rationale behind this is a public concern over animal welfare in egg production. As alternatives to conventional cages, the European Union Council Directive 1999/74/EC allows non-cage systems and enriched (furnished) cages. Layer performance, behavior, and welfare in differently sized furnished cages have been investigated quite widely during recent decades, but nutrition of hens in this production system has received less attention. This thesis aims to compare production and feed intake of laying hens in furnished and conventional cages and to study the effects of different dietary treatments in these production systems, thus contributing to the general knowledge of furnished cages as an egg production system. A furnished cage model for 8 hens was compared with a 3-hen conventional cage. Three consecutive experiments each studied one aspect of layer diet: The first experiment investigated the effects of dietary protein/energy ratio, the second dietary energy levels, and the third the effects of extra limestone supplementation. In addition, a fourth experiment evaluated the effects of perches on feed consumption and behavior of hens in furnished cages. The dietary treatments in experiments 1 3 generally had similar effects in the two cage types. Thus, there was no evidence supporting a change in nutrient requirements for laying hens when conventional cages are replaced with small-group furnished cages. Moreover, the results from nutritional experiments conducted in conventional cages can be applied to small-group furnished cage systems. These results support the view that production performance comparable with conventional cages can be achieved in furnished cages. All of the advantages of cages for bird welfare are sustained in the small-group furnished cages used here. In addition, frequent use of perches and nests implies a wider behavioral repertoire in furnished cages than in conventional cages. The increase observed in bone ash content may improve bird welfare in furnished cages. The presence of perches diminished feed consumption during the prelaying period and enhanced the feed conversion ratio during the early laying period in furnished cages. However, as the presence or absence of perches in furnished cages had no significant effect on feed consumption after the prelaying period, the lower feed consumption observed in furnished cages than in conventional cages could be attributed to other factors, such as the presence of wood shavings or a nest box. The wider feed trough space per hen in conventional than in furnished cages may partly explain the higher feed consumption observed in conventional cages.

Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

A Cointegration Approach to Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (summary section only)

Mikael Juselius’ doctoral dissertation covers a range of significant issues in modern macroeconomics by empirically testing a number of important theoretical hypotheses. The first essay presents indirect evidence within the framework of the cointegrated VAR model on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor by using Finnish manufacturing data. Instead of estimating the elasticity of substitution by using the first order conditions, he develops a new approach that utilizes a CES production function in a model with a 3-stage decision process: investment in the long run, wage bargaining in the medium run and price and employment decisions in the short run. He estimates the elasticity of substitution to be below one. The second essay tests the restrictions implied by the core equations of the New Keynesian Model (NKM) in a vector autoregressive model (VAR) by using both Euro area and U.S. data. Both the new Keynesian Phillips curve and the aggregate demand curve are estimated and tested. The restrictions implied by the core equations of the NKM are rejected on both U.S. and Euro area data. These results are important for further research. The third essay is methodologically similar to essay 2, but it concentrates on Finnish macro data by adopting a theoretical framework of an open economy. Juselius’ results suggests that the open economy NKM framework is too stylized to provide an adequate explanation for Finnish inflation. The final essay provides a macroeconometric model of Finnish inflation and associated explanatory variables and it estimates the relative importance of different inflation theories. His main finding is that Finnish inflation is primarily determined by excess demand in the product market and by changes in the long-term interest rate. This study is part of the research agenda carried out by the Research Unit of Economic Structure and Growth (RUESG). The aim of RUESG it to conduct theoretical and empirical research with respect to important issues in industrial economics, real option theory, game theory, organization theory, theory of financial systems as well as to study problems in labor markets, macroeconomics, natural resources, taxation and time series econometrics. RUESG was established at the beginning of 1995 and is one of the National Centers of Excellence in research selected by the Academy of Finland. It is financed jointly by the Academy of Finland, the University of Helsinki, the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, Bank of Finland and the Nokia Group. This support is gratefully acknowledged.

Production process of Scots pine.

The accompanying collective research report is the result of the research project in 1986­90 between The Finnish Academy and the former Soviet Academy of Sciences. The project was organized around common field work in Finland and in the former Soviet Union and theoretical analyses of tree growth determining processes. Based on theoretical analyses, dynamic stand growth models were made and their parameters were determined utilizing the field results. Annual cycle affects the tree growth. Our theoretical approach was based on adaptation to local climate conditions from Lapland to South Russia. The initiation of growth was described as a simple low and high temperature accumulation driven model. Linking the theoretical model with long term temperature data allowed us to analyze what type of temperature response produced favorable outcome in different climates. Initiation of growth consumes the carbohydrate reserves in plants. We measured the dynamics of insoluble and soluble sugars in the very northern and Karelian conditions. Clear cyclical pattern was observed but the differences between locations were surprisingly small. Analysis of field measurements of CO2 exchange showed that irradiance is the dominating factor causing variation in photosynthetic rate in natural conditions during summer. The effect of other factors is so small that they can be omitted without any considerable loss of accuracy. A special experiment carried out in Hyytiälä showed that the needle living space, defined as the ratio between the shoot cylindric volume and needle surface area, correlates with the shoot photosynthesis. The penetration of irradiance into Scots pine canopy is a complicated phenomenon because of the movement of the sun on the sky and the complicated structure of branches and needles. A moderately simple but balanced forest radiation regime submodel was constructed. It consists of the tree crown and forest structure, the gap probability calculation and the consideration of spatial and temporal variation of radiation inside the forest. The common field excursions in different geographical regions resulted in a lot of experimental data of regularities of woody structures. The water transport seems to be a good common factor to analyse these properties of tree structure. There are evident regressions between cross-sectional areas measured at different locations along the water pathway from fine roots to needles. The observed regressions have clear geographical trends. For example, the same cross-sectional area can support three times higher needle mass in South Russia than in Lapland. Geographical trends can also be seen in shoot and needle structure. Analysis of data published by several Russian authors show, that one ton of needles transpire 42 ton of water a year. This annual amount of transpiration seems to be independent of geographical location, year and site conditions. The produced theoretical and experimental material is utilised in the development of stand growth model that describes the growth and development of Scots pine stands in Finland and the former Soviet Union. The core of the model is carbon and nutrient balances. This means that carbon obtained in photosynthesis is consumed for growth and maintenance and nutrients are taken according to the metabolic needs. The annual photosynthetic production by trees in the stand is determined as a function of irradiance and shading during the active period. The utilisation of the annual photosynthetic production to the growth of different components of trees is based on structural regularities. Since the fundamental metabolic processes are the same in all locations the same growth model structure can be applied in the large range of Scots pine. The annual photosynthetic production and structural regularities determining the allocation of resources have geographical features. The common field measurements enable the application of the model to the analysis of growth and development of stands growing on the five locations of experiments. The model enables the analysis of geographical differences in the growth of Scots pine. For example, the annual photosynthetic production of a 100-year-old stand at Voronez is 3.5 times higher than in Lapland. The share consumed to needle growth (30 %) and to growth of branches (5 %) seems to be the same in all locations. In contrast, the share of fine roots is decreasing when moving from north to south. It is 20 % in Lapland, 15 % in Hyytiälä Central Finland and Kentjärvi Karelia and 15 % in Voronez South Russia. The stem masses (115­113 ton/ha) are rather similar in Hyytiälä, Kentjärvi and Voronez, but rather low (50 ton/ha) in Lapland. In Voronez the height of the trees reach 29 m being in Hyytiälä and Kentjärvi 22 m and in Lapland only 14 m. The present approach enables utilization of structural and functional knowledge, gained in places of intensive research, in the analysis of growth and development of any stand. This opens new possibilities for growth research and also for applications in forestry practice.