Statistical analysis of the associations of hereditary factors with the risk of Type 1 diabetes and Diabetic Nephropathy based on the familial data collected through ascertaiment from population-based registers

In genetic epidemiology, population-based disease registries are commonly used to collect genotype or other risk factor information concerning affected subjects and their relatives. This work presents two new approaches for the statistical inference of ascertained data: a conditional and full likelihood approaches for the disease with variable age at onset phenotype using familial data obtained from population-based registry of incident cases. The aim is to obtain statistically reliable estimates of the general population parameters. The statistical analysis of familial data with variable age at onset becomes more complicated when some of the study subjects are non-susceptible, that is to say these subjects never get the disease. A statistical model for a variable age at onset with long-term survivors is proposed for studies of familial aggregation, using latent variable approach, as well as for prospective studies of genetic association studies with candidate genes. In addition, we explore the possibility of a genetic explanation of the observed increase in the incidence of Type 1 diabetes (T1D) in Finland in recent decades and the hypothesis of non-Mendelian transmission of T1D associated genes. Both classical and Bayesian statistical inference were used in the modelling and estimation. Despite the fact that this work contains five studies with different statistical models, they all concern data obtained from nationwide registries of T1D and genetics of T1D. In the analyses of T1D data, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility alleles was not observed. In addition, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility genes did not make a plausible explanation for the increase in T1D incidence in Finland. Instead, the Human Leucocyte Antigen associations with T1D were confirmed in the population-based analysis, which combines T1D registry information, reference sample of healthy subjects and birth cohort information of the Finnish population. Finally, a substantial familial variation in the susceptibility of T1D nephropathy was observed. The presented studies show the benefits of sophisticated statistical modelling to explore risk factors for complex diseases.

Genetic Heterogeneity in Autism Spectrum Disorders in a Population Isolate

Positional cloning has enabled hypothesis-free, genome-wide scans for genetic factors contributing to disorders or traits. Traditionally linkage analysis has been used to identify regions of interest, followed by meticulous fine mapping and candidate gene screening using association methods and finally sequencing of regions of interest. More recently, genome-wide association analysis has enabled a more direct approach to identify specific genetic variants explaining a part of the variance of the phenotype of interest. Autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) are a group of childhood onset neuropsychiatric disorders with shared core symptoms but varying severity. Although a strong genetic component has been established in ASDs, genetic susceptibility factors have largely eluded characterization. Here, we have utilized modern molecular genetic methods combined with the advantages provided by the special population structure in Finland to identify genetic risk factors for ASDs. The results of this study show that numerous genetic risk factors exist for ASDs even within a population isolate. Stratification based on clinical phenotype resulted in encouraging results, as previously identified linkage to 3p14-p24 was replicated in an independent family set of families with Asperger syndrome, but no other ASDs. Fine-mapping of the previously identified linkage peak for ASDs at 3q25-q27 revealed association between autism and a subunit of the 5-hydroxytryptamine receptor 3C (HTR3C). We also used dense, genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data to characterize the population structure of Finns. We observed significant population substructure which correlates with the known history of multiple consecutive bottle-necks experienced by the Finnish population. We used this information to ascertain a genetically homogenous subset of autism families to identify possible rare, enriched risk variants using genome-wide SNP data. No rare enriched genetic risk factors were identified in this dataset, although a subset of families could be genealogically linked to form two extended pedigrees. The lack of founder mutations in this isolated population suggests that the majority of genetic risk factors are rare, de novo mutations unique to individual nuclear families. The results of this study are consistent with others in the field. The underlying genetic architecture for this group of disorders appears highly heterogeneous, with common variants accounting for only a subset of genetic risk. The majority of identified risk factors have turned out to be exceedingly rare, and only explain a subset of the genetic risk in the general population in spite of their high penetrance within individual families. The results of this study, together with other results obtained in this field, indicate that family specific linkage, homozygosity mapping and resequencing efforts are needed to identify these rare genetic risk factors.

Diet and the development of atherosclerosis: a whole-diet approach from childhood to adulthood

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of mortality in the world. Studies of the impact of single nutrients on the risk for CVD have often provided inconclusive results, and recent research in nutritional epidemiology with a more holistic whole-diet approach has proven fruitful. Moreover, dietary habits in childhood and adolescence may play a role in later health and disease, either independently or by tracking into adulthood. The main aims of this study were to find childhood and adulthood determinants of adulthood diet, to identify dietary patterns present among the study population and to study the associations between long-term food choices and cardiovascular health in young Finnish adults. The study is a part of the multidisciplinary Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study, which is an ongoing, prospective cohort study with a 21-year follow-up. At baseline in 1980, the subjects were children and adolescents aged 3 to 18 years (n included in this study = 1768), and young adults aged 24 to 39 years at the latest follow-up study in 2001 (n = 1037). Food consumption and nutrient intakes were assessed with repeated 48-hour dietary recalls. Other determinations have included comprehensive risk factor assessments using blood tests, physical measurements and questionnaires. In the latest follow-up, ultrasound examinations were performed to study early atherosclerotic vascular changes. The average intakes showed substantial changes since 1980. Intakes of fat and saturated fat had decreased, whereas the consumption of fruits and vegetables had increased. Intake of fat and consumption of vegetables in childhood and physical activity in adulthood were important health behavioural determinants of adult diet. Additionally, a principal component analysis was conducted to identify major dietary patterns at each study point. A similar set of two major patterns was recognised throughout the study. The traditional dietary pattern positively correlated with the consumption of traditional Finnish foods, such as rye, potatoes, milk, butter, sausages and coffee, and negatively correlated with fruit, berries and dairy products other than milk. This type of diet was independently associated with several risk factors of CVD, such as total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, apolipoprotein B and C-reactive protein concentrations among both genders, as well as with systolic blood pressure and insulin levels among women. The traditional pattern was also independently associated with intima media thickness (IMT), a subclinical predictor of CVD, in men but not in women. The health-conscious pattern, predominant among female subjects, non-smokers and urbanites, was characterised by more health-conscious food choices such as vegetables, legumes and nuts, tea, rye, fish, cheese and other dairy products, as well as by the consumption of alcoholic beverages. This pattern was inversely, but less strongly, associated with cardiovascular risk factors. Tracking of the dietary pattern scores was observed, particularly among subjects who were adolescents at baseline. Moreover, a long-term high intake of protein concurrent with a low intake of fat was positively associated with IMT. These findings suggest that food behaviour and food choices are to some extent established as early as in childhood or adolescence and may significantly track into adulthood. Long-term adherence to traditional food choices seems to increase the risk for developing CVD, especially among men. Those with intentional or unintentional low fat diets, but with high intake of protein may also be at increased risk for CVD. The findings offer practical, food-based information on the relationship between diet and CVD and encourage further use of the whole-diet approach in epidemiological research. The results support earlier findings that long-term food choices play a role in the development of CVD. The apparent influence of childhood habits is important to bear in mind when planning educational strategies for the primary prevention of CVD. Further studies on food choices over the entire lifespan are needed.

Ecological consequences of genetic modifications - an invasion analysis approach

Biological invasions are considered as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, as they may lead to disruption and homogenization of natural communities, and in the worst case, to native species extinctions. The introduction of gene modified organisms (GMOs) to agricultural, fisheries and forestry practices brings them into contact with natural populations. GMOs may appear as new invasive species if they are able to (1) invade into natural habitats or (2) hybridize with their wild relatives. The benefits of GMOs, such as increased yield or decreased use of insecticides or herbicides in cultivation, may thus be reduced due the potential risks they may cause. A careful ecological risk analysis therefore has to precede any responsible GMO introduction. In this thesis I study ecological invasion in relation to GMOs, and what kind of consequences invasion may have in natural populations. A set of theoretical models that combine life-history evolution, population dynamics, and population genetics were developed for the hazard identification part of ecological risks assessment of GMOs. In addition, the potential benefits of GMOs in management of an invasive pest were analyzed. In the first study I showed that a population that is fluctuating due to scramble-type density dependence (due to, e.g., nutrient competition in plants) may be invaded by a population that is relatively more limited by a resource (e.g., light in plants) that is a cause of contest-type density dependence. This result emphasises the higher risk of invasion in unstable environments. The next two studies focused on escape of a growth hormone (GH) transgenic fish into a natural population. The results showed that previous models may have given too pessimistic a view of the so called Trojan gene -effect, where the invading genotype is harmful for the population as a whole. The previously suggested population extinctions did not occur in my studies, since the changes in mating preferences caused by the GH-fish were be ameliorated by decreased level of competition. The GH-invaders may also have to exceed a threshold density before invasion can be successful. I also showed that the prevalence of mature parr (aka. sneaker) strategy among GH-fish may have clear effect on invasion outcome. The fourth study assessed the risks and developed methods against the invasion of the Colorado Potato Beetle (CPB, Leptinotarsa decemlineata). I showed that the eradication of CPB is most important for the prevention of their establishment, but the cultivation of transgenic Bt-potato could also be effective. In general, my results emphasise that invasion of transgenic species or genotypes to be possible under certain realistic conditions and resulting in competitive exclusion, population decline through outbreeding depression and genotypic displacement of native species. Ecological risk assessment should regard the decline and displacement of the wild genotype by an introduced one as a consequence that is as serious as the population extinction. It will also be crucial to take into account different kinds of behavioural differences among species when assessing the possible hazards that GMOs may cause if escaped. The benefits found of GMO crops effectiveness in pest management may also be too optimistic since CPB may evolve resistance to Bt-toxin. The models in this thesis could be further applied in case specific risk assessment of GMOs by supplementing them with detailed data of the species biology, the effect of the transgene introduced to the species, and also the characteristics of the populations or the environments in the risk of being invaded.

The Pathobiology of the Saccular Cerebral Artery Aneurysm Rupture and Repair : A Clinicopathological and Experimental Approach

Backround and Purpose The often fatal (in 50-35%) subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) caused by saccular cerebral artery aneurysm (SCAA) rupture affects mainly the working aged population. The incidence of SAH is 10-11 / 100 000 in Western countries and twice as high in Finland and Japan. The estimated prevalence of SCAAs is around 2%. Many of those never rupture. Currently there are, however, no diagnostic methods to identify rupture-prone SCAAs from quiescent, (dormant) ones. Finding diagnostic markers for rupture-prone SCAAs is of primary importance since a SCAA rupture has such a sinister outcome, and all current treatment modalities are associated with morbidity and mortality. Also the therapies that prevent SCAA rupture need to be developed to as minimally invasive as possible. Although the clinical risk factors for SCAA rupture have been extensively studied and documented in large patient series, the cellular and molecular mechanisms how these risk factors lead to SCAA wall rupture remain incompletely known. Elucidation of the molecular and cellular pathobiology of the SCAA wall is needed in order to develop i) novel diagnostic tools that could identify rupture-prone SCAAs or patients at risk of SAH, and to ii) develop novel biological therapies that prevent SCAA wall rupture. Materials and Methods In this study, histological samples from unruptured and ruptured SCAAs and plasma samples from SCAA carriers were compared in order to identify structural changes, cell populations, growth factor receptors, or other molecular markers that would associate with SCAA wall rupture. In addition, experimental saccular aneurysm models and experimental models of mechanical vascular injury were used to study the cellular mechanisms of scar formation in the arterial wall, and the adaptation of the arterial wall to increased mechanical stress. Results and Interpretation Inflammation and degeneration of the SCAA wall, namely loss of mural cells and degradation of the wall matrix, were found to associate with rupture. Unruptured SCAA walls had structural resemblance with pads of myointimal hyperplasia or so called neointima that characterizes early atherosclerotic lesions, and is the repair and adaptation mechanism of the arterial wall after injury or increased mechanical stress. As in pads of myointimal hyperplasia elsewhere in the vasculature, oxidated LDL was found in the SCAA walls. Immunity against OxLDL was demonstrated in SAH patients with detection of circulating anti-oxidized LDL antibodies, which were significantly associated with the risk of rupture in patients with solitary SCAAs. Growth factor receptors associated with arterial wall remodeling and angiogenesis were more expressed in ruptured SCAA walls. In experimental saccular aneurysm models, capillary growth, arterial wall remodeling and neointima formation were found. The neointimal cells were shown to originate from the experimental aneurysm wall with minor contribution from the adjacent artery, and a negligible contribution of bone marrow-derived neointimal cells. Since loss of mural cells characterizes ruptured human SCAAs and likely impairs the adaptation and repair mechanism of ruptured or rupture-prone SCAAs, we investigated also the hypothesis that bone marrow-derived or circulating neointimal precursor cells could be used to enhance neointima formation and compensate the impaired repair capacity in ruptured SCAA walls. However, significant contribution of bone marrow cells or circulating mononuclear cells to neointima formation was not found.

Irritable bowel syndrome in the general population : epidemiology, comorbidity and societal costs

Background: Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a common functional gastrointestinal (GI) disorder characterised by abdominal pain and abnormal bowel function. It is associated with a high rate of healthcare consumption and significant health care costs. The prevalence and economic burden of IBS in Finland has not been studied before. The aims of this study were to assess the prevalence of IBS according to various diagnostic criteria and to study the rates of psychiatric and somatic comorbidity in IBS. In addition, health care consumption and societal costs of IBS were to be evaluated. Methods: The study was a two-phase postal survey. Questionnaire I identifying IBS by Manning 2 (at least two of the six Manning symptoms), Manning 3 (at least three Manning symptoms), Rome I, and Rome II criteria, was mailed to a random sample of 5 000 working age subjects. It also covered extra-GI symptoms such as headache, back pain, and depression. Questionnaire II, covering rates of physician visits, and use of GI medication, was sent to subjects fulfilling Manning 2 or Rome II IBS criteria in Questionnaire I. Results: The response rate was 73% and 86% for questionnaires I and II. The prevalence of IBS was 15.9%, 9.6%, 5.6%, and 5.1% according to Manning 2, Manning 3, Rome I, and Rome II criteria. Of those meeting Rome II criteria, 97% also met Manning 2 criteria. Presence of severe abdominal pain was more often reported by subjects meeting either of the Rome criteria than those meeting either of the Manning criteria. Presence of depression, anxiety, and several somatic symptoms was more common among subjects meeting any IBS criterion than by controls. Of subjects with depressive symptoms, 11.6% met Rome II IBS criteria compared to 3.7% of those with no depressiveness. Subjects meeting any IBS criteria made more physician visits than controls. Intensity of GI symptoms and presence of dyspeptic symptoms were the strongest predictors of GI consultations. Presence of dyspeptic symptoms and a history of abdominal pain in childhood also predicted non-GI visits. Annual GI related individual costs were higher in the Rome II group (497 ) than in the Manning 2 group (295 ). Direct expenses of GI symptoms and non GI physician visits ranged between 98M for Rome II and 230M for Manning 2 criteria. Conclusions: The prevalence of IBS varies substantially depending on the criteria applied. Rome II criteria are more restrictive than Manning 2, and they identify an IBS population with more severe GI symptoms, more frequent health care use, and higher individual health care costs. Subjects with IBS demonstrate high rates of psychiatric and somatic comorbidity regardless of health care seeking status. Perceived symptom severity rather than psychiatric comorbidity predicts health care seeking for GI symptoms. IBS incurs considerable medical costs. The direct GI and non-GI costs are equivalent to up to 5% of outpatient health care and medicine costs in Finland. A more integral approach to IBS by physicians, accounting also for comorbid conditions, may produce a more favourable course in IBS patients and reduce health care expenditures.

Intraspecific variation in brain size and architecture : population divergence and phenotypic plasticity

Brain size and architecture exhibit great evolutionary and ontogenetic variation. Yet, studies on population variation (within a single species) in brain size and architecture, or in brain plasticity induced by ecologically relevant biotic factors have been largely overlooked. Here, I address the following questions: (i) do locally adapted populations differ in brain size and architecture, (ii) can the biotic environment induce brain plasticity, and (iii) do locally adapted populations differ in levels of brain plasticity? In the first two chapters I report large variation in both absolute and relative brain size, as well as in the relative sizes of brain parts, among divergent nine-spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) populations. Some traits show habitat-dependent divergence, implying natural selection being responsible for the observed patterns. Namely, marine sticklebacks have relatively larger bulbi olfactorii (chemosensory centre) and telencephala (involved in learning) than pond sticklebacks. Further, I demonstrate the importance of common garden studies in drawing firm evolutionary conclusions. In the following three chapters I show how the social environment and perceived predation risk shapes brain development. In common frog (Rana temporaria) tadpoles, I demonstrate that under the highest per capita predation risk, tadpoles develop smaller brains than in less risky situations, while high tadpole density results in enlarged tectum opticum (visual brain centre). Visual contact with conspecifics induces enlarged tecta optica in nine-spined sticklebacks, whereas when only olfactory cues from conspecifics are available, bulbus olfactorius become enlarged.Perceived predation risk results in smaller hypothalami (complex function) in sticklebacks. Further, group-living has a negative effect on relative brain size in the competition-adapted pond sticklebacks, but not in the predation-adapted marine sticklebacks. Perceived predation risk induces enlargement of bulbus olfactorius in pond sticklebacks, but not in marine sticklebacks who have larger bulbi olfactorii than pond fish regardless of predation. In sum, my studies demonstrate how applying a microevolutionary approach can help us to understand the enormous variation observed in the brains of wild animals a point-of-view which I high-light in the closing review chapter of my thesis.

Income inequality in the process of economic development : An empirical approach

This thesis studies the effect of income inequality on economic growth. This is done by analyzing panel data from several countries with both short and long time dimensions of the data. Two of the chapters study the direct effect of inequality on growth, and one chapter also looks at the possible indirect effect of inequality on growth by assessing the effect of inequality on savings. In Chapter two, the effect of inequality on growth is studied by using a panel of 70 countries and a new EHII2008 inequality measure. Chapter contributes on two problems that panel econometric studies on the economic effect of inequality have recently encountered: the comparability problem associated with the commonly used Deininger and Squire s Gini index, and the problem relating to the estimation of group-related elasticities in panel data. In this study, a simple way to 'bypass' vagueness related to the use of parametric methods to estimate group-related parameters is presented. The idea is to estimate the group-related elasticities implicitly using a set of group-related instrumental variables. The estimation results with new data and method indicate that the relationship between income inequality and growth is likely to be non-linear. Chapter three incorporates the EHII2.1 inequality measure and a panel with annual time series observations from 38 countries to test the existence of long-run equilibrium relation(s) between inequality and the level of GDP. Panel unit root tests indicate that both the logarithmic EHII2.1 inequality measure and the logarithmic GDP per capita series are I(1) nonstationary processes. They are also found to be cointegrated of order one, which implies that there is a long-run equilibrium relation between them. The long-run growth elasticity of inequality is found to be negative in the middle-income and rich economies, but the results for poor economies are inconclusive. In the fourth Chapter, macroeconomic data on nine developed economies spanning across four decades starting from the year 1960 is used to study the effect of the changes in the top income share to national and private savings. The income share of the top 1 % of population is used as proxy for the distribution of income. The effect of inequality on private savings is found to be positive in the Nordic and Central-European countries, but for the Anglo-Saxon countries the direction of the effect (positive vs. negative) remains somewhat ambiguous. Inequality is found to have an effect national savings only in the Nordic countries, where it is positive.