Detecting Earnings Management Using Neural Networks

Detecting Earnings Management Using Neural Networks. Trying to balance between relevant and reliable accounting data, generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) allow, to some extent, the company management to use their judgment and to make subjective assessments when preparing financial statements. The opportunistic use of the discretion in financial reporting is called earnings management. There have been a considerable number of suggestions of methods for detecting accrual based earnings management. A majority of these methods are based on linear regression. The problem with using linear regression is that a linear relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables must be assumed. However, previous research has shown that the relationship between accruals and some of the explanatory variables, such as company performance, is non-linear. An alternative to linear regression, which can handle non-linear relationships, is neural networks. The type of neural network used in this study is the feed-forward back-propagation neural network. Three neural network-based models are compared with four commonly used linear regression-based earnings management detection models. All seven models are based on the earnings management detection model presented by Jones (1991). The performance of the models is assessed in three steps. First, a random data set of companies is used. Second, the discretionary accruals from the random data set are ranked according to six different variables. The discretionary accruals in the highest and lowest quartiles for these six variables are then compared. Third, a data set containing simulated earnings management is used. Both expense and revenue manipulation ranging between -5% and 5% of lagged total assets is simulated. Furthermore, two neural network-based models and two linear regression-based models are used with a data set containing financial statement data from 110 failed companies. Overall, the results show that the linear regression-based models, except for the model using a piecewise linear approach, produce biased estimates of discretionary accruals. The neural network-based model with the original Jones model variables and the neural network-based model augmented with ROA as an independent variable, however, perform well in all three steps. Especially in the second step, where the highest and lowest quartiles of ranked discretionary accruals are examined, the neural network-based model augmented with ROA as an independent variable outperforms the other models.

Preparation of Industrially Important Hydroxy Acids and Diacids from 2,2-Disubstituted Propane-1,3-Diols and Linear Primary Diols by Green Chemistry Methods

Environmentally benign and economical methods for the preparation of industrially important hydroxy acids and diacids were developed. The carboxylic acids, used in polyesters, alkyd resins, and polyamides, were obtained by the oxidation of the corresponding alcohols with hydrogen peroxide or air catalyzed by sodium tungstate or supported noble metals. These oxidations were carried out using water as a solvent. The alcohols are also a useful alternative to the conventional reactants, hydroxyaldehydes and cycloalkanes. The oxidation of 2,2-disubstituted propane-1,3-diols with hydrogen peroxide catalyzed by sodium tungstate afforded 2,2-disubstituted 3-hydroxypropanoic acids and 1,1-disubstituted ethane-1,2-diols as products. A computational study of the Baeyer-Villiger rearrangement of the intermediate 2,2-disubstituted 3-hydroxypropanals gave in-depth data of the mechanism of the reaction. Linear primary diols having chain length of at least six carbons were easily oxidized with hydrogen peroxide to linear dicarboxylic acids catalyzed by sodium tungstate. The Pt/C catalyzed air oxidation of 2,2-disubstituted propane-1,3-diols and linear primary diols afforded the highest yield of the corresponding hydroxy acids, while the Pt, Bi/C catalyzed oxidation of the diols afforded the highest yield of the corresponding diacids. The mechanism of the promoted oxidation was best described by the ensemble effect, and by the formation of a complex of the hydroxy and the carboxy groups of the hydroxy acids with bismuth atoms. The Pt, Bi/C catalyzed air oxidation of 2-substituted 2-hydroxymethylpropane-1,3-diols gave 2-substituted malonic acids by the decarboxylation of the corresponding triacids. Activated carbon was the best support and bismuth the most efficient promoter in the air oxidation of 2,2-dialkylpropane-1,3-diols to diacids. In oxidations carried out in organic solvents barium sulfate could be a valuable alternative to activated carbon as a non-flammable support. In the Pt/C catalyzed air oxidation of 2,2-disubstituted propane-1,3-diols to 2,2-disubstituted 3-hydroxypropanoic acids the small size of the 2-substituents enhanced the rate of the oxidation. When the potential of platinum of the catalyst was not controlled, the highest yield of the diacids in the Pt, Bi/C catalyzed air oxidation of 2,2-dialkylpropane-1,3-diols was obtained in the regime of mass transfer. The most favorable pH of the reaction mixture of the promoted oxidation was 10. The reaction temperature of 40°C prevented the decarboxylation of the diacids.

On linear order and computation : The expressiveness of interactive computations on linear orders and computations indexed by ordinals

We solve the Dynamic Ehrenfeucht-Fra\"iss\'e Game on linear orders for both players, yielding a normal form for quantifier-rank equivalence classes of linear orders in first-order logic, infinitary logic, and generalized-infinitary logics with linearly ordered clocks. We show that Scott Sentences can be manipulated quickly, classified into local information, and consistency can be decided effectively in the length of the Scott Sentence. We describe a finite set of linked automata moving continuously on a linear order. Running them on ordinals, we compute the ordinal truth predicate and compute truth in the constructible universe of set-theory. Among the corollaries are a study of semi-models as efficient database of both model-theoretic and formulaic information, and a new proof of the atomicity of the Boolean algebra of sentences consistent with the theory of linear order -- i.e., that the finitely axiomatized theories of linear order are dense.

Modeling Nonlinearities and Asymmetries in Asset Pricing

Financial time series tend to behave in a manner that is not directly drawn from a normal distribution. Asymmetries and nonlinearities are usually seen and these characteristics need to be taken into account. To make forecasts and predictions of future return and risk is rather complicated. The existing models for predicting risk are of help to a certain degree, but the complexity in financial time series data makes it difficult. The introduction of nonlinearities and asymmetries for the purpose of better models and forecasts regarding both mean and variance is supported by the essays in this dissertation. Linear and nonlinear models are consequently introduced in this dissertation. The advantages of nonlinear models are that they can take into account asymmetries. Asymmetric patterns usually mean that large negative returns appear more often than positive returns of the same magnitude. This goes hand in hand with the fact that negative returns are associated with higher risk than in the case where positive returns of the same magnitude are observed. The reason why these models are of high importance lies in the ability to make the best possible estimations and predictions of future returns and for predicting risk.

An Empirical Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Volatility Models for Nordic Stock Returns

This paper examines how volatility in financial markets can preferable be modeled. The examination investigates how good the models for the volatility, both linear and nonlinear, are in absorbing skewness and kurtosis. The examination is done on the Nordic stock markets, including Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Different linear and nonlinear models are applied, and the results indicates that a linear model can almost always be used for modeling the series under investigation, even though nonlinear models performs slightly better in some cases. These results indicate that the markets under study are exposed to asymmetric patterns only to a certain degree. Negative shocks generally have a more prominent effect on the markets, but these effects are not really strong. However, in terms of absorbing skewness and kurtosis, nonlinear models outperform linear ones.

An optimal local approximation algorithm for max-min linear programs

In a max-min LP, the objective is to maximise ω subject to Ax ≤ 1, Cx ≥ ω1, and x ≥ 0 for nonnegative matrices A and C. We present a local algorithm (constant-time distributed algorithm) for approximating max-min LPs. The approximation ratio of our algorithm is the best possible for any local algorithm; there is a matching unconditional lower bound.

Local approximability of max-min and min-max linear programs

In a max-min LP, the objective is to maximise ω subject to Ax ≤ 1, Cx ≥ ω1, and x ≥ 0. In a min-max LP, the objective is to minimise ρ subject to Ax ≤ ρ1, Cx ≥ 1, and x ≥ 0. The matrices A and C are nonnegative and sparse: each row ai of A has at most ΔI positive elements, and each row ck of C has at most ΔK positive elements. We study the approximability of max-min LPs and min-max LPs in a distributed setting; in particular, we focus on local algorithms (constant-time distributed algorithms). We show that for any ΔI ≥ 2, ΔK ≥ 2, and ε > 0 there exists a local algorithm that achieves the approximation ratio ΔI (1 − 1/ΔK) + ε. We also show that this result is the best possible: no local algorithm can achieve the approximation ratio ΔI (1 − 1/ΔK) for any ΔI ≥ 2 and ΔK ≥ 2.

A new classification and linear sequence of extant gymnosperms

A new classification and linear sequence of the gymnosperms based on previous molecular and morphological phylogenetic and other studies is presented. Currently accepted genera are listed for each family and arranged according to their (probable) phylogenetic position. A full synonymy is provided, and types are listed for accepted genera. An index to genera assists in easy access to synonymy and family placement of genera.

A linear sequence of extant families and genera of lycophytes and ferns

Throughout the history of the classification of extant ferns (monilophytes) and lycophytes, familial and generic concepts have been in great flux. For the organisation of lycophytes and ferns in herbaria, books, checklists, indices and spore banks and on the internet, this poses a problem, and a standardized linear sequence of these plants is therefore in great need. We provide here a linear classification to the extant lycophytes and ferns based on current phylogenetic knowledge; this provides a standardized guide for organisation of fern collections into a more natural sequence. Two new families, Diplaziopsidaceae and Rhachidosoraceae, are here introduced.

Interruption and Uncooperativeness in Academic ELF Group Work : An Application of Linear Unit Grammar

This study addresses the challenge of analyzing interruption in spoken interaction. It begins with my observation of eight hours of academic group work among speakers of English as a lingua franca (ELF) in a university course. Unlike the common findings of ELF research which underscore the cooperative orientation of ELF users, this particular group gave strong impressions of interruption and uncooperativeness as they prepared a scientific group presentation. In the effort to investigate these impressions, I found that no satisfactory method exists for systematically identifying and analyzing interruptions. A useful tool was found in Linear Unit Grammar or LUG (Sinclair & Mauranen 2006), which analyzes spoken interaction prospectively as linear text. In the course of transcribing one of the early group work meetings, I developed a model of LUG-based criteria for identifying individual instances of interruption. With this system in place, I was then able to evaluate the aggregate occurrences of interruption in the group work and identify co-occurring interactive features which further influenced the perception of uncooperativeness. Finally, these aggregate statistics directed a return to the data and a contextually sensitive, qualitative analysis. This research cycle illuminates the interactive features which contributed to my own impressions of uncooperativeness, as well as the group members orientations to their own interruptive practice.