Discovering hidden structures in molecular data using a Bayesian partition model approach

Advancements in the analysis techniques have led to a rapid accumulation of biological data in databases. Such data often are in the form of sequences of observations, examples including DNA sequences and amino acid sequences of proteins. The scale and quality of the data give promises of answering various biologically relevant questions in more detail than what has been possible before. For example, one may wish to identify areas in an amino acid sequence, which are important for the function of the corresponding protein, or investigate how characteristics on the level of DNA sequence affect the adaptation of a bacterial species to its environment. Many of the interesting questions are intimately associated with the understanding of the evolutionary relationships among the items under consideration. The aim of this work is to develop novel statistical models and computational techniques to meet with the challenge of deriving meaning from the increasing amounts of data. Our main concern is on modeling the evolutionary relationships based on the observed molecular data. We operate within a Bayesian statistical framework, which allows a probabilistic quantification of the uncertainties related to a particular solution. As the basis of our modeling approach we utilize a partition model, which is used to describe the structure of data by appropriately dividing the data items into clusters of related items. Generalizations and modifications of the partition model are developed and applied to various problems. Large-scale data sets provide also a computational challenge. The models used to describe the data must be realistic enough to capture the essential features of the current modeling task but, at the same time, simple enough to make it possible to carry out the inference in practice. The partition model fulfills these two requirements. The problem-specific features can be taken into account by modifying the prior probability distributions of the model parameters. The computational efficiency stems from the ability to integrate out the parameters of the partition model analytically, which enables the use of efficient stochastic search algorithms.

Theoretical and computational approaches on heterogeneous nucleation

Nucleation is the first step of a first order phase transition. A new phase is always sprung up in nucleation phenomena. The two main categories of nucleation are homogeneous nucleation, where the new phase is formed in a uniform substance, and heterogeneous nucleation, when nucleation occurs on a pre-existing surface. In this thesis the main attention is paid on heterogeneous nucleation. This thesis wields the nucleation phenomena from two theoretical perspectives: the classical nucleation theory and the statistical mechanical approach. The formulation of the classical nucleation theory relies on equilibrium thermodynamics and use of macroscopically determined quantities to describe the properties of small nuclei, sometimes consisting of just a few molecules. The statistical mechanical approach is based on interactions between single molecules, and does not bear the same assumptions as the classical theory. This work gathers up the present theoretical knowledge of heterogeneous nucleation and utilizes it in computational model studies. A new exact molecular approach on heterogeneous nucleation was introduced and tested by Monte Carlo simulations. The results obtained from the molecular simulations were interpreted by means of the concepts of the classical nucleation theory. Numerical calculations were carried out for a variety of substances nucleating on different substances. The classical theory of heterogeneous nucleation was employed in calculations of one-component nucleation of water on newsprint paper, Teflon and cellulose film, and binary nucleation of water-n-propanol and water-sulphuric acid mixtures on silver nanoparticles. The results were compared with experimental results. The molecular simulation studies involved homogeneous nucleation of argon and heterogeneous nucleation of argon on a planar platinum surface. It was found out that the use of a microscopical contact angle as a fitting parameter in calculations based on the classical theory of heterogeneous nucleation leads to a fair agreement between the theoretical predictions and experimental results. In the presented cases the microscopical angle was found to be always smaller than the contact angle obtained from macroscopical measurements. Furthermore, molecular Monte Carlo simulations revealed that the concept of the geometrical contact parameter in heterogeneous nucleation calculations can work surprisingly well even for very small clusters.

Modeling and Forecasting Implied Volatility: Implications for Trading, Pricing, and Risk Management

Modeling and forecasting of implied volatility (IV) is important to both practitioners and academics, especially in trading, pricing, hedging, and risk management activities, all of which require an accurate volatility. However, it has become challenging since the 1987 stock market crash, as implied volatilities (IVs) recovered from stock index options present two patterns: volatility smirk(skew) and volatility term-structure, if the two are examined at the same time, presents a rich implied volatility surface (IVS). This implies that the assumptions behind the Black-Scholes (1973) model do not hold empirically, as asset prices are mostly influenced by many underlying risk factors. This thesis, consists of four essays, is modeling and forecasting implied volatility in the presence of options markets’ empirical regularities. The first essay is modeling the dynamics IVS, it extends the Dumas, Fleming and Whaley (DFW) (1998) framework; for instance, using moneyness in the implied forward price and OTM put-call options on the FTSE100 index, a nonlinear optimization is used to estimate different models and thereby produce rich, smooth IVSs. Here, the constant-volatility model fails to explain the variations in the rich IVS. Next, it is found that three factors can explain about 69-88% of the variance in the IVS. Of this, on average, 56% is explained by the level factor, 15% by the term-structure factor, and the additional 7% by the jump-fear factor. The second essay proposes a quantile regression model for modeling contemporaneous asymmetric return-volatility relationship, which is the generalization of Hibbert et al. (2008) model. The results show strong negative asymmetric return-volatility relationship at various quantiles of IV distributions, it is monotonically increasing when moving from the median quantile to the uppermost quantile (i.e., 95%); therefore, OLS underestimates this relationship at upper quantiles. Additionally, the asymmetric relationship is more pronounced with the smirk (skew) adjusted volatility index measure in comparison to the old volatility index measure. Nonetheless, the volatility indices are ranked in terms of asymmetric volatility as follows: VIX, VSTOXX, VDAX, and VXN. The third essay examines the information content of the new-VDAX volatility index to forecast daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates and compares its VaR forecasts with the forecasts of the Filtered Historical Simulation and RiskMetrics. All daily VaR models are then backtested from 1992-2009 using unconditional, independence, conditional coverage, and quadratic-score tests. It is found that the VDAX subsumes almost all information required for the volatility of daily VaR forecasts for a portfolio of the DAX30 index; implied-VaR models outperform all other VaR models. The fourth essay models the risk factors driving the swaption IVs. It is found that three factors can explain 94-97% of the variation in each of the EUR, USD, and GBP swaption IVs. There are significant linkages across factors, and bi-directional causality is at work between the factors implied by EUR and USD swaption IVs. Furthermore, the factors implied by EUR and USD IVs respond to each others’ shocks; however, surprisingly, GBP does not affect them. Second, the string market model calibration results show it can efficiently reproduce (or forecast) the volatility surface for each of the swaptions markets.

Maximum Loss Calculation using Scenario Analysis, Heavy Tails and Implied Volatility Patterns

The objective of this paper is to improve option risk monitoring by examining the information content of implied volatility and by introducing the calculation of a single-sum expected risk exposure similar to the Value-at-Risk. The figure is calculated in two steps. First, there is a need to estimate the value of a portfolio of options for a number of different market scenarios, while the second step is to summarize the information content of the estimated scenarios into a single-sum risk measure. This involves the use of probability theory and return distributions, which confronts the user with the problems of non-normality in the return distribution of the underlying asset. Here the hyperbolic distribution is used to describe one alternative for dealing with heavy tails. Results indicate that the information content of implied volatility is useful when predicting future large returns in the underlying asset. Further, the hyperbolic distribution provides a good fit to historical returns enabling a more accurate definition of statistical intervals and extreme events.

A sequential analysis of "nú" and "núna" in Icelandic conversation

This thesis is an empirical study of how two words in Icelandic, "nú" and "núna", are used in contemporary Icelandic conversation. My aims in this study are, first, to explain the differences between the temporal functions of "nú" and "núna", and, second, to describe the non-temporal functions of "nú". In the analysis, a focus is placed on comparing the sequential placement of the two words, on their syntactical distribution, and on their prosodic realization. The empirical data comprise 14 hours and 11 minutes of naturally occurring conversation recorded between 1996 and 2003. The selected conversations represent a wide range of interactional contexts including informal dinner parties, institutional and non-institutional telephone conversations, radio programs for teenagers, phone-in programs, and, finally, a political debate on television. The theoretical and methodological framework is interactional linguistics, which can be described as linguistically oriented conversation analysis (CA). A comparison of "nú" and "núna" shows that the two words have different syntactic distributions. "Nú" has a clear tendency to occur in the front field, before the finite verb, while "núna" typically occurs in the end field, after the object. It is argued that this syntactic difference reflects a functional difference between "nú" and "núna". A sequential analysis of "núna" shows that the word refers to an unspecified period of time which includes the utterance time as well as some time in the past and in the future. This temporal relation is referred to as reference time. "Nú", by contrast, is mainly used in three different environments: a) in temporal comparisons, 2) in transitions, and 3) when the speaker is taking an affective stance. The non-temporal functions of "nú" are divided into three categories: a) "nú" as a tone particle, 2) "nú" as an utterance particle, and 3) "nú" as a dialogue particle. "Nú" as a tone particle is syntactically integrated and can occur in two syntactic positions: pre-verbally and post-verbally. I argue that these instances are employed in utterances in which a speaker is foregrounding information or marking it as particularly important. The study shows that, although these instances are typically prosodically non-prominent and unstressed, they are in some cases delivered with stress and with a higher pitch than the surrounding talk. "Nú" as an utterance particle occurs turn-initially and is syntactically non-integrated. By using "nú", speakers show continuity between turns and link new turns to prior ones. These instances initiate either continuations by the same speaker or new turns after speaker shifts. "Nú" as a dialogue particle occurs as a turn of its own. The study shows that these instances register informings in prior turns as unexpected or as a departure from the normal state of affairs. "Nú" as a dialogue particle is often delivered with a prolonged vowel and a recognizable intonation contour. A comparative sequential and prosodic analysis shows that in these cases there is a correlation between the function of "nú" and the intonation contour by which it is delivered. Finally, I argue that despite the many functions of "nú", all the instances can be said to have a common denominator, which is to display attention towards the present moment and the utterances which are produced prior or after the production of "nú". Instead of anchoring the utterances in external time or reference time, these instances position the utterance in discourse internal time, or discourse time.

Experimental and computational studies on lipoprotein lipolysis at acidic pH

Atherosclerosis is a disease of the arteries; its characteristic features include chronic inflammation, extra- and intracellular lipid accumulation, extracellular matrix remodeling, and an increase in extracellular matrix volume. The underlying mechanisms in the pathogenesis of advanced atherosclerotic plaques, that involve local acidity of the extracellular fluid, are still incompletely understood. In this thesis project, my co-workers and I studied the different mechanisms by which local extracellular acidity could promote accumulation of the atherogenic apolipoprotein B-100 (apoB-100)-containing plasma lipoprotein particles in the inner layer of the arterial wall, the intima. We found that lipolysis of atherogenic apoB-100-containing plasma lipoprotein particles (LDL, IDL, and sVLDL) by the secretory phospholipase A2 group V (sPLA2-V) enzyme, was increased at acidic pH. Also, the binding of apoB-100-containing plasma lipoprotein particles to human aortic proteoglycans was dramatically enhanced at acidic pH. Additionally, lipolysis by sPLA2-V enzyme further increased this binding. Using proteoglycan-affinity chromatography, we found that sVLDL lipoprotein particles consist of populations, differing in their affinities toward proteoglycans. These populations also contained different amounts of apolipoprotein E (apoE) and apolipoprotein C-III (apoC-III); the amounts of apoC-III and apoE per particle were highest in the population with the lowest affinity toward proteoglycans. Since PLA2-modification of LDL particles has been shown to change their aggregation behavior, we also studied the effect of acidic pH on the monolayer structure covering lipoprotein particles after PLA2-induced hydrolysis. Using molecular dynamics simulations, we found that, in acidity, the monolayer is more tightly packed laterally; moreover, its spontaneous curvature is negative, suggesting that acidity may promote lipoprotein particles fusion. In addition to extracellular lipid accumulation, the apoB-100-containing plasma lipoprotein particles can be taken up by inflammatory cells, namely macrophages. Using radiolabeled lipoprotein particles and cell cultures, we showed that sPLA2-V-modification of LDL, IDL, and sVLDL lipoproteins particles, at neutral or acidic pH, increased their uptake by human monocyte-derived macrophages.

Use of non-specific and specific interactions in the analysis of testosterone and related compounds by capillary electromigration techniques

Determination of testosterone and related compounds in body fluids is of utmost importance in doping control and the diagnosis of many diseases. Capillary electromigration techniques are a relatively new approach for steroid research. Owing to their electrical neutrality, however, separation of steroids by capillary electromigration techniques requires the use of charged electrolyte additives that interact with the steroids either specifically or non-specifically. The analysis of testosterone and related steroids by non-specific micellar electrokinetic chromatography (MEKC) was investigated in this study. The partial filling (PF) technique was employed, being suitable for detection by both ultraviolet spectrophotometry (UV) and electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS). Efficient, quantitative PF-MEKC UV methods for steroid standards were developed through the use of optimized pseudostationary phases comprising surfactants and cyclodextrins. PF-MEKC UV proved to be a more sensitive, efficient and repeatable method for the steroids than PF-MEKC ESI-MS. It was discovered that in PF-MEKC analyses of electrically neutral steroids, ESI-MS interfacing sets significant limitations not only on the chemistry affecting the ionization and detection processes, but also on the separation. The new PF-MEKC UV method was successfully employed in the determination of testosterone in male urine samples after microscale immunoaffinity solid-phase extraction (IA-SPE). The IA-SPE method, relying on specific interactions between testosterone and a recombinant anti-testosterone Fab fragment, is the first such method described for testosterone. Finally, new data for interactions between steroids and human and bovine serum albumins were obtained through the use of affinity capillary electrophoresis. A new algorithm for the calculation of association constants between proteins and neutral ligands is introduced.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

On the Narrative Construction of Multinational Corporations: An Antenarrative Analysis of Legitimation and Resistance in a Cross-Border Merger

Although extant research has highlighted the role of discourse in the cultural construction of organizations, there is a need to elucidate the use of narratives as central discursive resources in unfolding organizational change. Hence, the objective of this article is to develop a new kind of antenarrative approach for the cultural analysis of organizational change. We use merging multinational corporations (MNCs) as a case in point. Our empirical analysis focuses on a revelatory case: the financial services group Nordea, which was built by combining Swedish, Finnish, Danish, and Norwegian corporations. We distinguish three types of antenarrative that provided alternatives for making sense of the merger: globalist, nationalist, and regionalist (Nordic) antenarratives. We focus on how these antenarratives were mobilized in intentional organizational storytelling to legitimate or resist change: globalist storytelling as a means to legitimate the merger and to create MNC identity, nationalist storytelling to relegitimate national identities and interests, Nordic storytelling to create regional identity, and the critical use of the globalist storytelling to challenge the Nordic identity. We conclude that organizational storytelling is characterized by polyphonic, stylistic, chronotopic, and architectonic dialogisms and by a dynamic between centering and decentering forces. This paper contributes to discourse-cultural studies of organizations by explaining how narrative constructions of identities and interests are used to legitimate or resist change. Furthermore, this analysis elucidates the dialogical dynamics of organizational storytelling and thereby opens up new avenues for the cultural analysis of organizations.