Markers of systemic inflammation in diagnostics and in prediction of outcome of community-acquired infection

Sepsis is associated with a systemic inflammatory response. It is characterised by an early proinflammatory response and followed by a state of immunosuppression. In order to improve the outcome of patients with infection and sepsis, novel therapies that influence the systemic inflammatory response are being developed and utilised. Thus, an accurate and early diagnosis of infection and evaluation of immune state are crucial. In this thesis, various markers of systemic inflammation were studied with respect to enhancing the diagnostics of infection and of predicting outcome in patients with suspected community-acquired infection. A total of 1092 acutely ill patients admitted to a university hospital medical emergency department were evaluated, and 531 patients with a suspicion of community-acquired infection were included for the analysis. Markers of systemic inflammation were determined from a blood sample obtained simultaneously with a blood culture sample on admission to hospital. Levels of phagocyte CD11b/CD18 and CD14 expression were measured by whole blood flow cytometry. Concentrations of soluble CD14, interleukin (IL)-8, and soluble IL-2 receptor α (sIL-2Rα) were determined by ELISA, those of sIL-2R, IL-6, and IL-8 by a chemiluminescent immunoassay, that of procalcitonin by immunoluminometric assay, and that of C-reactive protein by immunoturbidimetric assay. Clinical data were collected retrospectively from the medical records. No marker of systemic inflammation, neither CRP, PCT, IL-6, IL-8, nor sIL-2R predicted bacteraemia better than did the clinical signs of infection, i.e., the presence of infectious focus or fever or both. IL-6 and PCT had the highest positive likelihood ratios to identify patients with hidden community-acquired infection. However, the use of a single marker failed to detect all patients with infection. A combination of markers including a fast-responding reactant (CD11b expression), a later-peaking reactant (CRP), and a reactant originating from inflamed tissues (IL-8) detected all patients with infection. The majority of patients (86.5%) with possible but not verified infection showed levels exceeding at least one cut-off limit of combination, supporting the view that infection was the cause of their acute illness. The 28-day mortality of patients with community-acquired infection was low (3.4%). On admission to hospital, the low expression of cell-associated lipopolysaccharide receptor CD14 (mCD14) was predictive for 28-day mortality. In the patients with severe forms of community-acquired infection, namely pneumonia and sepsis, high levels of soluble CD14 alone did not predict mortality, but a high sCD14 level measured simultaneously with a low mCD14 raised the possibility of poor prognosis. In conclusion, to further enhance the diagnostics of hidden community-acquired infection, a combination of inflammatory markers is useful; 28-day mortality is associated with low levels of mCD14 expression at an early phase of the disease.

Impact of hysterectomy or levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system on ovarian function, bone, and sexual functioning in menorrhagic patients

The `VuoKKo` trial consisted of 236 women referred and randomised due to menorrhagia in the five university hospitals of Finland between November 1994 and November 1997. Of these women, 117 were randomised to hysterectomy and 119 to use levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) to treat this complaint. Their follow-up visits took place six and twelve months after the treatment and five years after the randomisation. The first aim in the primary trial was quality-of-life and monetary aspects, and secondly in the present study to compare ovarian function, bone mineral density (BMD) and sexual functioning after these two treatment options. Ovarian function seemed to decrease after hysterectomy, demonstrated by increased hot flashes and serum follicle-stimulating hormone concentrations twelve months after the operation. Such an increase was not seen among LNG-IUS users. The pulsatility index of intraovarian arteries measured by two-dimensional ultrasound decreased in the hysterectomy group, but not in the LNG-IUS group. The decrease in serum inhibin B concentrations was similar in both groups, while ovarian artery circulation remained unchanged. BMD of the women measured by dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) at the lumbar spine and femoral neck at baseline and at five years after treatment showed BMD decrease at the lumbar spine among hysterectomised women, but not among LNG-IUS users. In both groups, BMD at the femoral neck had decreased. Differences between the groups were not, however, significant. Sexual functioning assessed by McCoy s sexual scale showed that sexual satisfaction as well as intercourse frequency had increased and sexual problems decreased among hysterectomised women six months after treatment. Among LNG-IUS users, sexual satisfaction and sexual problems remained unchanged. Although, the two groups did not differ in terms of sexual satisfaction or sexual problems at one-year and five-year follow-ups, LNG-IUS users were less satisfied with their partners than hysterectomised women.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

Methods and applications for improving parameter prediction models for stand structures in Finland

This thesis report attempts to improve the models for predicting forest stand structure for practical use, e.g. forest management planning (FMP) purposes in Finland. Comparisons were made between Weibull and Johnson s SB distribution and alternative regression estimation methods. Data used for preliminary studies was local but the final models were based on representative data. Models were validated mainly in terms of bias and RMSE in the main stand characteristics (e.g. volume) using independent data. The bivariate SBB distribution model was used to mimic realistic variations in tree dimensions by including within-diameter-class height variation. Using the traditional method, diameter distribution with the expected height resulted in reduced height variation, whereas the alternative bivariate method utilized the error-term of the height model. The lack of models for FMP was covered to some extent by the models for peatland and juvenile stands. The validation of these models showed that the more sophisticated regression estimation methods provided slightly improved accuracy. A flexible prediction and application for stand structure consisted of seemingly unrelated regression models for eight stand characteristics, the parameters of three optional distributions and Näslund s height curve. The cross-model covariance structure was used for linear prediction application, in which the expected values of the models were calibrated with the known stand characteristics. This provided a framework to validate the optional distributions and the optional set of stand characteristics. Height distribution is recommended for the earliest state of stands because of its continuous feature. From the mean height of about 4 m, Weibull dbh-frequency distribution is recommended in young stands if the input variables consist of arithmetic stand characteristics. In advanced stands, basal area-dbh distribution models are recommended. Näslund s height curve proved useful. Some efficient transformations of stand characteristics are introduced, e.g. the shape index, which combined the basal area, the stem number and the median diameter. Shape index enabled SB model for peatland stands to detect large variation in stand densities. This model also demonstrated reasonable behaviour for stands in mineral soils.

Genetic polymorphisms and laboratory variables as predictors of blood pressure response to antihypertensive drugs

Hypertension is one of the major risk factors for cardiovascular morbidity. The advantages of antihypertensive therapy have been clearly demonstrated, but only about 30% of hypertensive patients have their blood pressure (BP) controlled by such treatment. One of the reasons for this poor BP control may lie in the difficulty in predicting BP response to antihypertensive treatment. The average BP reduction achieved is similar for each drug in the main classes of antihypertensive agents, but there is a marked individual variation in BP responses to any given drug. The purpose of the present study was to examine BP response to four different antihypertensive monotherapies with regard to demographic characteristics, laboratory test results and common genetic polymorphisms. The subjects of the present study are participants in the pharmacogenetic GENRES Study. A total of 208 subjects completed the whole study protocol including four drug treatment periods of four weeks, separated by four-week placebo periods. The study drugs were amlodipine, bisoprolol, hydrochlorothiazide and losartan. Both office (OBP) and 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) measurements were carried out. BP response to study drugs were related to basic clinical characteristics, pretreatment laboratory test results and common polymorphisms in genes coding for components of the renin-angiotensin system, alpha-adducin (ADD1), beta1-adrenergic receptor (ADRB1) and beta2-adrenergic receptor (ADRB2). Age was positively correlated with BP responses to amlodipine and with OBP and systolic ABP responses to hydrochlorothiazide, while body mass index was negatively correlated with ABP responses to amlodipine. Of the laboratory test results, plasma renin activity (PRA) correlated positively with BP responses to losartan, with ABP responses to bisoprolol, and negatively with ABP responses to hydrochlorothiazide. Uniquely to this study, it was found that serum total calcium level was negatively correlated with BP responses to amlodipine, whilst serum total cholesterol level was negatively correlated with ABP responses to amlodipine. There were no significant associations of angiotensin II type I receptor 1166A/C, angiotensin converting enzyme I/D, angiotensinogen Met235Thr, ADD1 Gly460Trp, ADRB1 Ser49Gly and Gly389Arg and ADRB2 Arg16Gly and Gln27Glu polymorphisms with BP responses to the study drugs. In conclusion, this study confirmed the relationship between pretreatment PRA levels and response to three classes of antihypertensive drugs. This study is the first to note a significant inverse relation between serum calcium level and responsiveness to a calcium channel blocker. However, this study could not replicate the observations that common polymorphisms in angiotensin II type I receptor, angiotensin converting enzyme, angiotensinogen, ADD1, ADRB1, or ADRB2 genes can predict BP response to antihypertensive drugs.

Role of CIP2A in carcinogenesis

Worldwide and notably in the developed countries, cancer is an increasing cause of morbidity and mortality, being the second most common cause of death after ischemic heart disease. Now and in the future new cancer cases need to be diagnosed earlier. Prognostic factors may be helpful in recognizing and handling those patients who need more aggressive therapy, and it is also desirable to predict treatment response accurately. Cancerous inhibitor of protein phosphatase 2A (CIP2A) is an oncoprotein predominantly expressed in malignant tissues and inhibiting protein phosphatase 2A (PP2A) activity; it is a promising target for cancer therapy. The aim of this thesis was to evaluate the prognostic role of CIP2A in solid cancers, and for this purpose to explore expression of CIP2A, and investigating regulation of CIP2A in order to gain insight into signalling pathways leading to alteration in prognosis. Patients diagnosed with gastric, serous ovarian, tongue, or colorectal cancer at Helsinki University Central Hospital were included. Tumour tissue microarrays assembled from specimens from these patients were prepared and stained immunohistochemically for CIP2A protein expression. Associations with clinicopathologic parameters and other biomarkers were explored, and survival analyses were done according to the Kaplan-Meier method. Study of the role of CIP2A in intracellular signalling in vitro involved gastric, ovarian, and tongue cancer cell lines. We found CIP2A to be highly expressed in gastric, ovarian, tongue, and colorectal cancer specimens. CIP2A was associated with clinicopathologic parameters characterizing an aggressive disease, namely advanced stage, high grade, p53 immunopositivity, and high proliferation index. CIP2A led to recognition of gastric, ovarian, and tongue cancer patients with poor prognosis, however, with a cancer type-specific cut-off level for prognostic significance. In tongue cancer, it served as an independent prognostic marker. In contrast, in colorectal cancer, CIP2A provided no prognostic value. In cancer cell lines, CIP2A was highly expressed at both protein and mRNA levels, and promoted cell proliferation and anchorage-independent growth. In gastric cancer, we demonstrated with a MYCER construct in mouse embryo fibroblasts that activation of MYC led to increased CIP2A mRNA expression, and hence we suggested that a positive feedback mechanism between CIP2A and MYC may potentiate and prolong the oncogenic activity of these proteins. We demonstrated in ovarian cancer an association between CIP2A and EGFR protein overexpression and EGFR gene amplification. In ovarian and tongue cancer cells we showed that depletion of EGFR downregulates CIP2A expression. In conclusion, high CIP2A expression occurred frequently among patients with aggressive disease. CIP2A may serve as a prognostic marker in gastric, ovarian, and tongue cancer and thus may help in tailoring therapy for cancer patients. The positive feedback mechanism between CIP2A and MYC, as well as the positive regulation of CIP2A by EGFR, are a few signalling pathways regulating and regulated by CIP2A. These and other mechanisms need to be studied further, however. CIP2A is a potential target for therapy, and its potential role as predictive marker and as a tumour marker in serum requires exploration.