On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

Technical efficiency of blood component preparation in blood centres of 10 European countries

Various reasons, such as ethical issues in maintaining blood resources, growing costs, and strict requirements for safe blood, have increased the pressure for efficient use of resources in blood banking. The competence of blood establishments can be characterized by their ability to predict the volume of blood collection to be able to provide cellular blood components in a timely manner as dictated by hospital demand. The stochastically varying clinical need for platelets (PLTs) sets a specific challenge for balancing supply with requests. Labour has been proven a primary cost-driver and should be managed efficiently. International comparisons of blood banking could recognize inefficiencies and allow reallocation of resources. Seventeen blood centres from 10 countries in continental Europe, Great Britain, and Scandinavia participated in this study. The centres were national institutes (5), parts of the local Red Cross organisation (5), or integrated into university hospitals (7). This study focused on the departments of blood component preparation of the centres. The data were obtained retrospectively by computerized questionnaires completed via Internet for the years 2000-2002. The data were used in four original articles (numbered I through IV) that form the basis of this thesis. Non-parametric data envelopment analysis (DEA, II-IV) was applied to evaluate and compare the relative efficiency of blood component preparation. Several models were created using different input and output combinations. The focus of comparisons was on the technical efficiency (II-III) and the labour efficiency (I, IV). An empirical cost model was tested to evaluate the cost efficiency (IV). Purchasing power parities (PPP, IV) were used to adjust the costs of the working hours and to make the costs comparable among countries. The total annual number of whole blood (WB) collections varied from 8,880 to 290,352 in the centres (I). Significant variation was also observed in the annual volume of produced red blood cells (RBCs) and PLTs. The annual number of PLTs produced by any method varied from 2,788 to 104,622 units. In 2002, 73% of all PLTs were produced by the buffy coat (BC) method, 23% by aphaeresis and 4% by the platelet-rich plasma (PRP) method. The annual discard rate of PLTs varied from 3.9% to 31%. The mean discard rate (13%) remained in the same range throughout the study period and demonstrated similar levels and variation in 2003-2004 according to a specific follow-up question (14%, range 3.8%-24%). The annual PLT discard rates were, to some extent, associated with production volumes. The mean RBC discard rate was 4.5% (range 0.2%-7.7%). Technical efficiency showed marked variation (median 60%, range 41%-100%) among the centres (II). Compared to the efficient departments, the inefficient departments used excess labour resources (and probably) production equipment to produce RBCs and PLTs. Technical efficiency tended to be higher when the (theoretical) proportion of lost WB collections (total RBC+PLT loss) from all collections was low (III). The labour efficiency varied remarkably, from 25% to 100% (median 47%) when working hours were the only input (IV). Using the estimated total costs as the input (cost efficiency) revealed an even greater variation (13%-100%) and overall lower efficiency level compared to labour only as the input. In cost efficiency only, the savings potential (observed inefficiency) was more than 50% in 10 departments, whereas labour and cost savings potentials were both more than 50% in six departments. The association between department size and efficiency (scale efficiency) could not be verified statistically in the small sample. In conclusion, international evaluation of the technical efficiency in component preparation departments revealed remarkable variation. A suboptimal combination of manpower and production output levels was the major cause of inefficiency, and the efficiency did not directly relate to production volume. Evaluation of the reasons for discarding components may offer a novel approach to study efficiency. DEA was proven applicable in analyses including various factors as inputs and outputs. This study suggests that analytical models can be developed to serve as indicators of technical efficiency and promote improvements in the management of limited resources. The work also demonstrates the importance of integrating efficiency analysis into international comparisons of blood banking.

Components of productivity growth in Finnish agriculture

The objective was to measure productivity growth and its components in Finnish agriculture, especially in dairy farming. The objective was also to compare different methods and models - both parametric (stochastic frontier analysis) and non-parametric (data envelopment analysis) - in estimating the components of productivity growth and the sensitivity of results with respect to different approaches. The parametric approach was also applied in the investigation of various aspects of heterogeneity. A common feature of the first three of five articles is that they concentrate empirically on technical change, technical efficiency change and the scale effect, mainly on the basis of the decompositions of Malmquist productivity index. The last two articles explore an intermediate route between the Fisher and Malmquist productivity indices and develop a detailed but meaningful decomposition for the Fisher index, including also empirical applications. Distance functions play a central role in the decomposition of Malmquist and Fisher productivity indices. Three panel data sets from 1990s have been applied in the study. The common feature of all data used is that they cover the periods before and after Finnish EU accession. Another common feature is that the analysis mainly concentrates on dairy farms or their roughage production systems. Productivity growth on Finnish dairy farms was relatively slow in the 1990s: approximately one percent per year, independent of the method used. Despite considerable annual variation, productivity growth seems to have accelerated towards the end of the period. There was a slowdown in the mid-1990s at the time of EU accession. No clear immediate effects of EU accession with respect to technical efficiency could be observed. Technical change has been the main contributor to productivity growth on dairy farms. However, average technical efficiency often showed a declining trend, meaning that the deviations from the best practice frontier are increasing over time. This suggests different paths of adjustment at the farm level. However, different methods to some extent provide different results, especially for the sub-components of productivity growth. In most analyses on dairy farms the scale effect on productivity growth was minor. A positive scale effect would be important for improving the competitiveness of Finnish agriculture through increasing farm size. This small effect may also be related to the structure of agriculture and to the allocation of investments to specific groups of farms during the research period. The result may also indicate that the utilization of scale economies faces special constraints in Finnish conditions. However, the analysis of a sample of all types of farms suggested a more considerable scale effect than the analysis on dairy farms.

Microbial communities in Pb contaminated boreal forest soil

Lead contamination in the environment is of particular concern, as it is a known toxin. Until recently, however, much less attention has been given to the local contamination caused by activities at shooting ranges compared to large-scale industrial contamination. In Finland, more than 500 tons of Pb is produced each year for shotgun ammunition. The contaminant threatens various organisms, ground water and the health of human populations. However, the forest at shooting ranges usually shows no visible sign of stress compared to nearby clean environments. The aboveground biota normally reflects the belowground ecosystem. Thus, the soil microbial communities appear to bear strong resistance to contamination, despite the influence of lead. The studies forming this thesis investigated a shooting range site at Hälvälä in Southern Finland, which is heavily contaminated by lead pellets. Previously it was experimentally shown that the growth of grasses and degradation of litter are retarded. Measurements of acute toxicity of the contaminated soil or soil extracts gave conflicting results, as enchytraeid worms used as toxicity reporters were strongly affected, while reporter bacteria showed no or very minor decreases in viability. Measurements using sensitive inducible luminescent reporter bacteria suggested that the bioavailability of lead in the soil is indeed low, and this notion was supported by the very low water extractability of the lead. Nevertheless, the frequency of lead-resistant cultivable bacteria was elevated based on the isolation of cultivable strains. The bacterial and fungal diversity in heavily lead contaminated shooting sectors were compared with those of pristine sections of the shooting range area. The bacterial 16S rRNA gene and fungal ITS rRNA gene were amplified, cloned and sequenced using total DNA extracted from the soil humus layer as the template. Altogether, 917 sequenced bacterial clones and 649 sequenced fungal clones revealed a high soil microbial diversity. No effect of lead contamination was found on bacterial richness or diversity, while fungal richness and diversity significantly differed between lead contaminated and clean control areas. However, even in the case of fungi, genera that were deemed sensitive were not totally absent from the contaminated area: only their relative frequency was significantly reduced. Some operational taxonomic units (OTUs) assigned to Basidiomycota were clearly affected, and were much rarer in the lead contaminated areas. The studies of this thesis surveyed EcM sporocarps, analyzed morphotyped EcM root tips by direct sequencing, and 454-pyrosequenced fungal communities in in-growth bags. A total of 32 EcM fungi that formed conspicuous sporocarps, 27 EcM fungal OTUs from 294 root tips, and 116 EcM fungal OTUs from a total of 8 194 ITS2 454 sequences were recorded. The ordination analyses by non-parametric multidimensional scaling (NMS) indicated that Pb enrichment induced a shift in the EcM community composition. This was visible as indicative trends in the sporocarp and root tip datasets, but explicitly clear in the communities observed in the in-growth bags. The compositional shift in the EcM community was mainly attributable to an increase in the frequencies of OTUs assigned to the genus Thelephora, and to a decrease in the OTUs assigned to Pseudotomentella, Suillus and Tylospora in Pb-contaminated areas when compared to the control. The enrichment of Thelephora in contaminated areas was also observed when examining the total fungal communities in soil using DNA cloning and sequencing technology. While the compositional shifts are clear, their functional consequences for the dominant trees or soil ecosystem remain undetermined. The results indicate that at the Hälvälä shooting range, lead influences the fungal communities but not the bacterial communities. The forest ecosystem shows apparent functional redundancy, since no significant effects were seen on forest trees. Recently, by means of 454 pyrosequencing , the amount of sequences in a single analysis run can be up to one million. It has been applied in microbial ecology studies to characterize microbial communities. The handling of sequence data with traditional programs is becoming difficult and exceedingly time consuming, and novel tools are needed to handle the vast amounts of data being generated. The field of microbial ecology has recently benefited from the availability of a number of tools for describing and comparing microbial communities using robust statistical methods. However, although these programs provide methods for rapid calculation, it has become necessary to make them more amenable to larger datasets and numbers of samples from pyrosequencing. As part of this thesis, a new program was developed, MuSSA (Multi-Sample Sequence Analyser), to handle sequence data from novel high-throughput sequencing approaches in microbial community analyses. The greatest advantage of the program is that large volumes of sequence data can be manipulated, and general OTU series with a frequency value can be calculated among a large number of samples.

Microbial diversity in the municipal composting process and development of detection methods

Composting refers to aerobic degradation of organic material and is one of the main waste treatment methods used in Finland for treating separated organic waste. The composting process allows converting organic waste to a humus-like end product which can be used to increase the organic matter in agricultural soils, in gardening, or in landscaping. Microbes play a key role as degraders during the composting-process, and the microbiology of composting has been studied for decades, but there are still open questions regarding the microbiota in industrial composting processes. It is known that with the traditional, culturing-based methods only a small fraction, below 1%, of the species in a sample is normally detected. In recent years an immense diversity of bacteria, fungi and archaea has been found to occupy many different environments. Therefore the methods of characterising microbes constantly need to be developed further. In this thesis the presence of fungi and bacteria in full-scale and pilot-scale composting processes was characterised with cloning and sequencing. Several clone libraries were constructed and altogether nearly 6000 clones were sequenced. The microbial communities detected in this study were found to differ from the compost microbes observed in previous research with cultivation based methods or with molecular methods from processes of smaller scale, although there were similarities as well. The bacterial diversity was high. Based on the non-parametric coverage estimations, the number of bacterial operational taxonomic units (OTU) in certain stages of composting was over 500. Sequences similar to Lactobacillus and Acetobacteria were frequently detected in the early stages of drum composting. In tunnel stages of composting the bacterial community comprised of Bacillus, Thermoactinomyces, Actinobacteria and Lactobacillus. The fungal diversity was found to be high and phylotypes similar to yeasts were abundantly found in the full-scale drum and tunnel processes. In addition to phylotypes similar to Candida, Pichia and Geotrichum moulds from genus Thermomyces and Penicillium were observed in tunnel stages of composting. Zygomycetes were detected in the pilot-scale composting processes and in the compost piles. In some of the samples there were a few abundant phylotypes present in the clone libraries that masked the rare ones. The rare phylotypes were of interest and a method for collecting them from clone libraries for sequencing was developed. With negative selection of the abundant phylotyps the rare ones were picked from the clone libraries. Thus 41% of the clones in the studied clone libraries were sequenced. Since microbes play a central role in composting and in many other biotechnological processes, rapid methods for characterization of microbial diversity would be of value, both scientifically and commercially. Current methods, however, lack sensitivity and specificity and are therefore under development. Microarrays have been used in microbial ecology for a decade to study the presence or absence of certain microbes of interest in a multiplex manner. The sequence database collected in this thesis was used as basis for probe design and microarray development. The enzyme assisted detection method, ligation-detection-reaction (LDR) based microarray, was adapted for species-level detection of microbes characteristic of each stage of the composting process. With the use of a specially designed control probe it was established that a species specific probe can detect target DNA representing as little as 0.04% of total DNA in a sample. The developed microarray can be used to monitor composting processes or the hygienisation of the compost end product. A large compost microbe sequence dataset was collected and analysed in this thesis. The results provide valuable information on microbial community composition during industrial scale composting processes. The microarray method was developed based on the sequence database collected in this study. The method can be utilised in following the fate of interesting microbes during composting process in an extremely sensitive and specific manner. The platform for the microarray is universal and the method can easily be adapted for studying microbes from environments other than compost.

Aspects of Inflationary Models at Low Energy Scales

Cosmological inflation is the dominant paradigm in explaining the origin of structure in the universe. According to the inflationary scenario, there has been a period of nearly exponential expansion in the very early universe, long before the nucleosynthesis. Inflation is commonly considered as a consequence of some scalar field or fields whose energy density starts to dominate the universe. The inflationary expansion converts the quantum fluctuations of the fields into classical perturbations on superhorizon scales and these primordial perturbations are the seeds of the structure in the universe. Moreover, inflation also naturally explains the high degree of homogeneity and spatial flatness of the early universe. The real challenge of the inflationary cosmology lies in trying to establish a connection between the fields driving inflation and theories of particle physics. In this thesis we concentrate on inflationary models at scales well below the Planck scale. The low scale allows us to seek for candidates for the inflationary matter within extensions of the Standard Model but typically also implies fine-tuning problems. We discuss a low scale model where inflation is driven by a flat direction of the Minimally Supersymmetric Standard Model. The relation between the potential along the flat direction and the underlying supergravity model is studied. The low inflationary scale requires an extremely flat potential but we find that in this particular model the associated fine-tuning problems can be solved in a rather natural fashion in a class of supergravity models. For this class of models, the flatness is a consequence of the structure of the supergravity model and is insensitive to the vacuum expectation values of the fields that break supersymmetry. Another low scale model considered in the thesis is the curvaton scenario where the primordial perturbations originate from quantum fluctuations of a curvaton field, which is different from the fields driving inflation. The curvaton gives a negligible contribution to the total energy density during inflation but its perturbations become significant in the post-inflationary epoch. The separation between the fields driving inflation and the fields giving rise to primordial perturbations opens up new possibilities to lower the inflationary scale without introducing fine-tuning problems. The curvaton model typically gives rise to relatively large level of non-gaussian features in the statistics of primordial perturbations. We find that the level of non-gaussian effects is heavily dependent on the form of the curvaton potential. Future observations that provide more accurate information of the non-gaussian statistics can therefore place constraining bounds on the curvaton interactions.

First simultaneous measurement of the top quark mass in the lepton+jets and dilepton channels at CDF

We present a measurement of the mass of the top quark using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.9fb^-1 of ppbar collisions collected at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV with the CDF II detector at Fermilab's Tevatron. This is the first measurement of the top quark mass using top-antitop pair candidate events in the lepton + jets and dilepton decay channels simultaneously. We reconstruct two observables in each channel and use a non-parametric kernel density estimation technique to derive two-dimensional probability density functions from simulated signal and background samples. The observables are the top quark mass and the invariant mass of two jets from the W decay in the lepton + jets channel, and the top quark mass and the scalar sum of transverse energy of the event in the dilepton channel. We perform a simultaneous fit for the top quark mass and the jet energy scale, which is constrained in situ by the hadronic W boson mass. Using 332 lepton + jets candidate events and 144 dilepton candidate events, we measure the top quark mass to be mtop=171.9 +/- 1.7 (stat. + JES) +/- 1.1 (syst.) GeV/c^2 = 171.9 +/- 2.0 GeV/c^2.

Methods in general model localization

The aim of this study was to evaluate and test methods which could improve local estimates of a general model fitted to a large area. In the first three studies, the intention was to divide the study area into sub-areas that were as homogeneous as possible according to the residuals of the general model, and in the fourth study, the localization was based on the local neighbourhood. According to spatial autocorrelation (SA), points closer together in space are more likely to be similar than those that are farther apart. Local indicators of SA (LISAs) test the similarity of data clusters. A LISA was calculated for every observation in the dataset, and together with the spatial position and residual of the global model, the data were segmented using two different methods: classification and regression trees (CART) and the multiresolution segmentation algorithm (MS) of the eCognition software. The general model was then re-fitted (localized) to the formed sub-areas. In kriging, the SA is modelled with a variogram, and the spatial correlation is a function of the distance (and direction) between the observation and the point of calculation. A general trend is corrected with the residual information of the neighbourhood, whose size is controlled by the number of the nearest neighbours. Nearness is measured as Euclidian distance. With all methods, the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were lower, but with the methods that segmented the study area, the deviance in single localized RMSEs was wide. Therefore, an element capable of controlling the division or localization should be included in the segmentation-localization process. Kriging, on the other hand, provided stable estimates when the number of neighbours was sufficient (over 30), thus offering the best potential for further studies. Even CART could be combined with kriging or non-parametric methods, such as most similar neighbours (MSN).

Lahopuumäärän ennustaminen ja kartoitus lentokonelaserkeilauksen avulla

Lahopuun määrästä ja sijoittumisesta ollaan kiinnostuneita paitsi elinympäristöjen monimuotoisuuden, myös ilmakehän hiilen varastoinnin kannalta. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli kehittää aluepohjainen laserkeilausdataa hyödyntävä malli lahopuukohteiden paikantamiseksi ja lahopuun määrän estimoimiseksi. Samalla tutkittiin mallin selityskyvyn muuttumista mallinnettavan ruudun kokoa suurennettaessa. Tutkimusalue sijaitsi Itä-Suomessa Sonkajärvellä ja koostui pääasiassa nuorista hoidetuista talousmetsistä. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin harvapulssista laserkeilausdataa sekä kaistoittain mitattua maastodataa kuolleesta puuaineksesta. Aineisto jaettiin siten, että neljäsosa datasta oli käytössä mallinnusta varten ja loput varattiin valmiiden mallien testaamiseen. Lahopuun mallintamisessa käytettiin sekä parametrista että ei-parametrista mallinnusmenetelmää. Logistisen regression avulla erikokoisille (0,04, 0,20, 0,32, 0,52 ja 1,00 ha) ruuduille ennustettiin todennäköisyys lahopuun esiintymiselle. Muodostettujen mallien selittävät muuttujat valittiin 80 laserpiirteen ja näiden muunnoksien joukosta. Mallien selittävät muuttujat valittiin kolmessa vaiheessa. Aluksi muuttujia tarkasteltiin visuaalisesti kuvaamalla ne lahopuumäärän suhteen. Ensimmäisessä vaiheessa sopivimmiksi arvioitujen muuttujien selityskykyä testattiin mallinnuksen toisessa vaiheessa yhden muuttujan mallien avulla. Lopullisessa usean muuttujan mallissa selittävien muuttujien kriteerinä oli tilastollinen merkitsevyys 5 % riskitasolla. 0,20 hehtaarin ruutukoolle luotu malli parametrisoitiin muun kokoisille ruuduille. Logistisella regressiolla toteutetun parametrisen mallintamisen lisäksi, 0,04 ja 1,0 hehtaarin ruutukokojen aineistot luokiteltiin ei-parametrisen CART-mallinnuksen (Classification and Regression Trees) avulla. CARTmenetelmällä etsittiin aineistosta vaikeasti havaittavia epälineaarisia riippuvuuksia laserpiirteiden ja lahopuumäärän välillä. CART-luokittelu tehtiin sekä lahopuustoisuuden että lahopuutilavuuden suhteen. CART-luokituksella päästiin logistista regressiota parempiin tuloksiin ruutujen luokituksessa lahopuustoisuuden suhteen. Logistisella mallilla tehty luokitus parani ruutukoon suurentuessa 0,04 ha:sta(kappa 0,19) 0,32 ha:iin asti (kappa 0,38). 0,52 ha:n ruutukoolla luokituksen kappa-arvo kääntyi laskuun (kappa 0,32) ja laski edelleen hehtaarin ruutukokoon saakka (kappa 0,26). CART-luokitus parani ruutukoon kasvaessa. Luokitustulokset olivat logistista mallinnusta parempia sekä 0,04 ha:n (kappa 0,24) että 1,0 ha:n (kappa 0,52) ruutukoolla. CART-malleilla määritettyjen ruutukohtaisten lahopuutilavuuksien suhteellinen RMSE pieneni ruutukoon kasvaessa. 0,04 hehtaarin ruutukoolla koko aineiston lahopuumäärän suhteellinen RMSE oli 197,1 %, kun hehtaarin ruutukoolla vastaava luku oli 120,3 %. Tämän tutkimuksen tulosten perusteella voidaan todeta, että maastossa mitatun lahopuumäärän ja tutkimuksessa käytettyjen laserpiirteiden yhteys on pienellä ruutukoolla hyvin heikko, mutta vahvistuu hieman ruutukoon kasvaessa. Kun mallinnuksessa käytetty ruutukoko kasvaa, pienialaisten lahopuukeskittymien havaitseminen kuitenkin vaikeutuu. Tutkimuksessa kohteen lahopuustoisuus pystyttiin kartoittamaan kohtuullisesti suurella ruutukoolla, mutta pienialaisten kohteiden kartoittaminen ei onnistunut käytetyillä menetelmillä. Pienialaisten kohteiden paikantaminen laserkeilauksen avulla edellyttää jatkotutkimusta erityisesti tiheäpulssisen laserdatan käytöstä lahopuuinventoinneissa.

Ratkaiseeko raha? : Tulospalkkiojärjestelmään ja työympäristöön liittyvien kokemusten yhteys esimiesten työtyytyväisyyteen ja työmotivaatioon

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between merit pay system and work environment and foremen´s work satisfaction and work motivation. There has been a lot of investigation on rewarding. Less research has been done on previous surveys among the merit pay systems and motivation investigations. According to former surveys, rewarding systems cannot be released from its context. Therefore this survey expanded to deal with work environment. It was also essential to investigate different dimensions of extrinsic and intrinsic motivation and equity of rewarding. Investigation or work motivation and work satisfaction was challenging because both of these concepts have been investigated under quite traditional frame of reference of work motivation theories. In some surveys, the concepts have not been even separated or they have been used even as synonyms. The data were collected with the 193 foremen working in the profit centers of the different chains of the company in the field of retail trade. The questions were: Are the experiences of merit pay system and work environment related to foremen´s work satisfaction and work motivation? Are the backround variables related to foremen´s work satisfaction and work motivation? The data collection was carried out by an electronic inquiry during May 2010. 137 replied from foremen working under merit pay system. The research material was analyzed with PASW-software. Various analyzing methods were used: factor analyses, regression analyses and group of different parametric and non-parametric analyses. In contrast to theoretical framework in the factor analyses work satisfaction and work motivation clustered into the same dimension. As a main result the atmosphere, possibilities to influence and the atmosphere of leading were strongly positively related to foremen´s work satisfaction and work motivation. According to regression analyses these factors were able to explain 55 % of the foremen´s work satisfaction and work motivation. The best explanatory variable was atmosphere. Instead, the backround variables (age, sex, working years, group of profession, education) were not associated with work satisfaction and work motivation.

Microfinance, Efficiency and Agricultural Production in Bangladesh

The objectives of this study were to make a detailed and systematic empirical analysis of microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers in Bangladesh and also examine how efficiency measures are influenced by the access to agricultural microfinance. In the empirical analysis, this study used both parametric and non-parametric frontier approaches to investigate differences in efficiency estimates between microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers. This thesis, based on five articles, applied data obtained from a survey of 360 farm households from north-central and north-western regions in Bangladesh. The methods used in this investigation involve stochastic frontier (SFA) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) in addition to sample selectivity and limited dependent variable models. In article I, technical efficiency (TE) estimation and identification of its determinants were performed by applying an extended Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier production function. The results show that farm households had a mean TE of 83% with lower TE scores for the non-borrowers of agricultural microfinance. Addressing institutional policies regarding the consolidation of individual plots into farm units, ensuring access to microfinance, extension education for the farmers with longer farming experience are suggested to improve the TE of the farmers. In article II, the objective was to assess the effects of access to microfinance on household production and cost efficiency (CE) and to determine the efficiency differences between the microfinance participating and non-participating farms. In addition, a non-discretionary DEA model was applied to capture directly the influence of microfinance on farm households production and CE. The results suggested that under both pooled DEA models and non-discretionary DEA models, farmers with access to microfinance were significantly more efficient than their non-borrowing counterparts. Results also revealed that land fragmentation, family size, household wealth, on farm-training and off farm income share are the main determinants of inefficiency after effectively correcting for sample selection bias. In article III, the TE of traditional variety (TV) and high-yielding-variety (HYV) rice producers were estimated in addition to investigating the determinants of adoption rate of HYV rice. Furthermore, the role of TE as a potential determinant to explain the differences of adoption rate of HYV rice among the farmers was assessed. The results indicated that in spite of its much higher yield potential, HYV rice production was associated with lower TE and had a greater variability in yield. It was also found that TE had a significant positive influence on the adoption rates of HYV rice. In article IV, we estimated profit efficiency (PE) and profit-loss between microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers by a sample selection framework, which provided a general framework for testing and taking into account the sample selection in the stochastic (profit) frontier function analysis. After effectively correcting for selectivity bias, the mean PE of the microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers were estimated at 68% and 52% respectively. This suggested that a considerable share of profits were lost due to profit inefficiencies in rice production. The results also demonstrated that access to microfinance contributes significantly to increasing PE and reducing profit-loss per hectare land. In article V, the effects of credit constraints on TE, allocative efficiency (AE) and CE were assessed while adequately controlling for sample selection bias. The confidence intervals were determined by the bootstrap method for both samples. The results indicated that differences in average efficiency scores of credit constrained and unconstrained farms were not statistically significant although the average efficiencies tended to be higher in the group of unconstrained farms. After effectively correcting for selectivity bias, household experience, number of dependents, off-farm income, farm size, access to on farm training and yearly savings were found to be the main determinants of inefficiencies. In general, the results of the study revealed the existence substantial technical, allocative, economic inefficiencies and also considerable profit inefficiencies. The results of the study suggested the need to streamline agricultural microfinance by the microfinance institutions (MFIs), donor agencies and government at all tiers. Moreover, formulating policies that ensure greater access to agricultural microfinance to the smallholder farmers on a sustainable basis in the study areas to enhance productivity and efficiency has been recommended. Key Words: Technical, allocative, economic efficiency, DEA, Non-discretionary DEA, selection bias, bootstrapping, microfinance, Bangladesh.

The Effect of Food-Related Lifestyle on the Choices of Consumers of Five Food Products

The purpose of this study was to find out whether food-related lifestyle guides and explains product evaluations, specifically, consumer perceptions and choice evaluations of five different food product categories: lettuce, mincemeat, savoury sauce, goat cheese, and pudding. The opinions of consumers who shop in neighbourhood stores were considered most valuable. This study applies means-end chain (MEC) theory, according to which products are seen as means by which consumers attain meaningful goals. The food-related lifestyle (FRL) instrument was created to study lifestyles that reflect these goals. Further, this research has adopted the view that the FRL functions as a script which guides consumer behaviour. Two research methods were used in this study. The first was the laddering interview, the primary aim of which was to gather information for formulating the questionnaire of the main study. The survey consisted of two separate questionnaires. The first was the FRL questionnaire modified for this study. The aim of the other questionnaire was to determine the choice criteria for buying five different categories of food products. Before these analyses could be made, several data modifications were made following MEC analysis procedures. Beside forming FRL dimensions by counting sum-scores from the FRL statements, factor analysis was run in order to elicit latent factors underlying the dimensions. The lifestyle factors found were adventurous, conscientious, enthusiastic, snacking, moderate, and uninvolved lifestyles. The association analyses were done separately for each choice of product as well as for each attribute-consequence linkage with a non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test. The testing variables were FRL dimensions and the FRL lifestyle factors. In addition, the relation between the attribute-consequence linkages and the demographic variables were analysed. Results from this study showed that the choice of product is sequential, so that consumers first categorize products into groups based on specific criteria like health or convenience. It was attested that the food-related lifestyles function as a script in food choice and that the FRL instrument can be used to predict consumer buying behaviour. Certain lifestyles were associated with the choice of each product category. The actual product choice within a product category then appeared to be a different matter. In addition, this study proposes a modification to the FRL instrument. The positive towards advertising FRL dimension was modified to examine many kinds of information search including the internet, TV, magazines, and other people. This new dimension, which was designated as being open to additional information, proved to be very robust and reliable in finding differences in consumer choice behaviour. Active additional information search was linked to adventurous and snacking food-related lifestyles. The results of this study support the previous knowledge that consumers expect to get many benefits simultaneously when they buy food products. This study brought detailed information about the benefits sought, the combination of benefits differing between products and between respondents. Household economy, pleasure and quality were emphasized with the choice of lettuce. Quality was the most significant benefit in choosing mincemeat, but health related benefits were often evaluated as well. The dominant benefits linked to savoury sauce were household economic benefits, expected pleasurable experiences, and a lift in self-respect. The choice of goat cheese appeared not to be an economic decision, self-respect, pleasure, and quality being included in the choice criteria. In choosing pudding, the respondents considered the well-being of family members, and indulged their family members or themselves.

Non-Gaussian Cosmological Perturbations from Hybrid Inflation and Preheating

This thesis consists of four research papers and an introduction providing some background. The structure in the universe is generally considered to originate from quantum fluctuations in the very early universe. The standard lore of cosmology states that the primordial perturbations are almost scale-invariant, adiabatic, and Gaussian. A snapshot of the structure from the time when the universe became transparent can be seen in the cosmic microwave background (CMB). For a long time mainly the power spectrum of the CMB temperature fluctuations has been used to obtain observational constraints, especially on deviations from scale-invariance and pure adiabacity. Non-Gaussian perturbations provide a novel and very promising way to test theoretical predictions. They probe beyond the power spectrum, or two point correlator, since non-Gaussianity involves higher order statistics. The thesis concentrates on the non-Gaussian perturbations arising in several situations involving two scalar fields, namely, hybrid inflation and various forms of preheating. First we go through some basic concepts -- such as the cosmological inflation, reheating and preheating, and the role of scalar fields during inflation -- which are necessary for the understanding of the research papers. We also review the standard linear cosmological perturbation theory. The second order perturbation theory formalism for two scalar fields is developed. We explain what is meant by non-Gaussian perturbations, and discuss some difficulties in parametrisation and observation. In particular, we concentrate on the nonlinearity parameter. The prospects of observing non-Gaussianity are briefly discussed. We apply the formalism and calculate the evolution of the second order curvature perturbation during hybrid inflation. We estimate the amount of non-Gaussianity in the model and find that there is a possibility for an observational effect. The non-Gaussianity arising in preheating is also studied. We find that the level produced by the simplest model of instant preheating is insignificant, whereas standard preheating with parametric resonance as well as tachyonic preheating are prone to easily saturate and even exceed the observational limits. We also mention other approaches to the study of primordial non-Gaussianities, which differ from the perturbation theory method chosen in the thesis work.