Kognitiva system i namngivningen av finländska handelsfartyg 1838-1938

This dissertation is an onomastic study of Finland s stock of ship names (nautonomasticon) recorded over the period 1838 1938. The primary material investigated consists of 2 066 examples of ship names from the fleets of coastal towns, distributed over five sample years. The material is supplemented with two bodies of comparative data; one that consists of 2 535 examples of boat names from the archipelago area at the corresponding time, and another that comprises 482 examples of eighteenth century Finnish ship names. This study clarifies the categories of names that appear the frequency of the names, formation, morphology, linguistic origin, functions, and semantic qualities. By comparing the material with boat names from previous centuries, and from other countries, the characteristics of Finnish vessel names are further highlighted. Additional clarification is brought to the chronological, regional, and social variations, and to the emergence of various forms of systematic naming. This dissertation builds on older research from other countries, and uses traditional onomastic methods alongside a more modern methodology. The approach is interdisciplinary, meaning that the names are explored using facts not only from nautical history, but also from a range of other historical disciplines such as economics, culture, art, and literature. In addition, the approach is socio-onomastic, i.e. that the variations in names are studied in a societal context. Using a synchronised perspective, cognitive linguistic theories have provided the tools for this exploration into the metaphorical and the prototypical meaning of the names, and the semantic domains that the names create. The quantitative analysis has revealed the overall picture of Finnish boat names. Personal names, names from mythology, and place names, emerge as significant categories, alongside nonproprial names in Swedish and Finnish. The interdisciplinary perspective has made it possible to explain certain trends in the stock of boat names, for example, the predisposition towards names from classical mythology, the breakthrough of names taken from the national epos Kalevala, names in the Finnish language from around the middle of the nineteenth century, and the continuing rise of place names during the latter part of the period 1838 1938. The socio-onomastic perspective has also identified clear differences between those ship names used in towns, and those ship names used in the archipelago, and it has clarified how naming conventions tend to spread from town centres to peripheral areas. The cognitive linguistic methods have revealed that the greater part of the vessel names can be interpreted as metaphors, in particular personifications, and that many names are related in their content and also form semantic networks and cognitive systems. The results indicate that there is a mental nautonomasticon that consists of a standard set of traditional ship names, but they also reveal the existence of conscious or unconscious cognitive systems (rules and conventions) that guide the naming of boats.

Chemical characteristics and behaviour of sediment phosphorus in the northeastern Baltic Sea.

Chemical characteristics and behaviour of sediment phosphorus in the northeastern Baltic Sea Eutrophication is a severe environmental problem in the Baltic Sea, especially in the Gulf of Finland and the Archipelago Sea, and it is enhanced by the release of phosphorus (P) from bottom sediments. The release of P from sediment reserves largely depends on the occurrence of P in different chemical forms and on the prevailing conditions, especially on the presence of oxygen. This study examines the chemical character and the vertical distribution of sediment P in two shallow estuaries, in shallow coastal sediments overlain by oxic near-bottom water, and in poorly oxygenated open sea sediments in the northeastern Baltic Sea. The objective was to evaluate how much of the sediment P is buried and removed from the nutrient cycle, and how much of it is in forms that can be released from the sediment to the overlaying water over time. Relationships between the distribution of the different P forms and the chemical and physical properties of the sediment, sediment pore water, and near-bottom water were determined in order to examine the behaviour of P at the sediment-water interface. The results show that the chemical character of sediment P varied in the different areas. Generally, in the outer estuaries and in the organic-rich coastal areas in the eastern Gulf of Finland, the sediments were higher in P than the sediments in the poorly oxygenated open sea areas in the central and western Gulf. The estuary sediments that received erosion-transported material were characterised by P bound to hydrated oxides of iron and aluminum. Iron-bound P is sensitive to changes in redox-conditions, but part of it was buried in the estuaries, possibly because of high sedimentation rates and incomplete reduction of iron. The open sea sediments in the central and western Gulf of Finland were dominated by apatite-P, which was also abundant in the areas strongly affected by sediment transportation. The burial of sediment P was most effective in the areas rich in apatite-P, which is a relatively stable form of P in sediment. In the eastern Gulf of Finland, organic P forms predominated in the organic-rich sediments. A part of these P forms will be buried, while part will be degraded in the long term, releasing soluble P to the pore water. In the poorly oxygenated areas, iron compounds at the sediment surface are not able to retain P released during mineralisation of organic matter or reduction-induced dissolution of iron-compounds in deep sediment layers. However, in the shallow coastal areas overlain by oxic near-bottom water, the organic-rich surface sediment can also become temporarily reduced and release P from the sediment to the overlaying water. The considerable variation in the chemical composition of sediment P reserves in the northeastern Baltic Sea proved that it is an important factor and should be taken into account when evaluating the release of sediment P and the role of P reserves in bottom sediments in eutrophication.

Phytoplankton quantity as an indicator of eutrophication in Finnish coastal waters : Applications within the Water Framework Directive

The tackling of coastal eutrophication requires water protection measures based on status assessments of water quality. The main purpose of this thesis was to evaluate whether it is possible both scientifically and within the terms of the European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD) to assess the status of coastal marine waters reliably by using phytoplankton biomass (ww) and chlorophyll a (Chl) as indicators of eutrophication in Finnish coastal waters. Empirical approaches were used to study whether the criteria, established for determining an indicator, are fulfilled. The first criterion (i) was that an indicator should respond to anthropogenic stresses in a predictable manner and has low variability in its response. Summertime Chl could be predicted accurately by nutrient concentrations, but not from the external annual loads alone, because of the rapid affect of primary production and sedimentation close to the loading sources in summer. The most accurate predictions were achieved in the Archipelago Sea, where total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) alone accounted for 87% and 78% of the variation in Chl, respectively. In river estuaries, the TP mass-balance regression model predicted Chl most accurately when nutrients originated from point-sources, whereas land-use regression models were most accurate in cases when nutrients originated mainly from diffuse sources. The inclusion of morphometry (e.g. mean depth) into nutrient models improved accuracy of the predictions. The second criterion (ii) was associated with the WFD. It requires that an indicator should have type-specific reference conditions, which are defined as "conditions where the values of the biological quality elements are at high ecological status". In establishing reference conditions, the empirical approach could only be used in the outer coastal water types, where historical observations of Secchi depth of the early 1900s are available. The most accurate prediction was achieved in the Quark. In the inner coastal water types, reference Chl, estimated from present monitoring data, are imprecise - not only because of the less accurate estimation method but also because the intrinsic characteristics, described for instance by morphometry, vary considerably inside these extensive inner coastal types. As for phytoplankton biomass, the reference values were less accurate than in the case of Chl, because it was possible to estimate reference conditions for biomass only by using the reconstructed Chl values, not the historical Secchi observations. An paleoecological approach was also applied to estimate annual average reference conditions for Chl. In Laajalahti, an urban embayment off Helsinki, strongly loaded by municipal waste waters in the 1960s and 1970s, reference conditions prevailed in the mid- and late 1800s. The recovery of the bay from pollution has been delayed as a consequence of benthic release of nutrients. Laajalahti will probably not achieve the good quality objectives of the WFD on time.    The third criterion (iii) was associated with coastal management including the resources it has available. Analyses of Chl are cheap and fast to carry out compared to the analyses of phytoplankton biomass and species composition; the fact which has an effect on number of samples to be taken and thereby on the reliability of assessments. However, analyses on phytoplankton biomass and species composition provide more metrics for ecological classification, the metrics which reveal various aspects of eutrophication contrary to what Chl alone does.

Modeling ecological and evolutionary processes in spatially structured populations

Many species inhabit fragmented landscapes, resulting either from anthropogenic or from natural processes. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured populations are affected by a complex interplay between endogenous and exogenous factors. The metapopulation approach, simplifying the landscape to a discrete set of patches of breeding habitat surrounded by unsuitable matrix, has become a widely applied paradigm for the study of species inhabiting highly fragmented landscapes. In this thesis, I focus on the construction of biologically realistic models and their parameterization with empirical data, with the general objective of understanding how the interactions between individuals and their spatially structured environment affect ecological and evolutionary processes in fragmented landscapes. I study two hierarchically structured model systems, which are the Glanville fritillary butterfly in the Åland Islands, and a system of two interacting aphid species in the Tvärminne archipelago, both being located in South-Western Finland. The interesting and challenging feature of both study systems is that the population dynamics occur over multiple spatial scales that are linked by various processes. My main emphasis is in the development of mathematical and statistical methodologies. For the Glanville fritillary case study, I first build a Bayesian framework for the estimation of death rates and capture probabilities from mark-recapture data, with the novelty of accounting for variation among individuals in capture probabilities and survival. I then characterize the dispersal phase of the butterflies by deriving a mathematical approximation of a diffusion-based movement model applied to a network of patches. I use the movement model as a building block to construct an individual-based evolutionary model for the Glanville fritillary butterfly metapopulation. I parameterize the evolutionary model using a pattern-oriented approach, and use it to study how the landscape structure affects the evolution of dispersal. For the aphid case study, I develop a Bayesian model of hierarchical multi-scale metapopulation dynamics, where the observed extinction and colonization rates are decomposed into intrinsic rates operating specifically at each spatial scale. In summary, I show how analytical approaches, hierarchical Bayesian methods and individual-based simulations can be used individually or in combination to tackle complex problems from many different viewpoints. In particular, hierarchical Bayesian methods provide a useful tool for decomposing ecological complexity into more tractable components.

Environmental effects of thermal and radioactive discharges from nuclear power plants in the boreal brackish-water conditions of the northern Baltic Sea

During recent decades, thermal and radioactive discharges from nuclear power plants into the aquatic environment have become the subject of lively debate as an ecological concern. The target of this thesis was to summarize the large quantity of results obtained in extensive monitoring programmes and studies carried out in recipient sea areas off the Finnish nuclear power plants at Loviisa and Olkiluoto during more than four decades. The Loviisa NPP is located on the coast of the Gulf of Finland and Olkiluoto NPP on that of the Bothnian Sea. The state of the Gulf of Finland is clearly more eutrophic; the nutrient concentrations in the surface water are about 1½ 2 times higher at Loviisa than at Olkiluoto, and the total phosphorus concentrations still increased in both areas (even doubled at Loviisa) between the early 1970s and 2000. Thus, it is a challenge to distinguish the local effects of thermal discharges from the general eutrophication process of the Gulf of Finland. The salinity is generally low in the brackish-water conditions of the northern Baltic Sea, being however about 1 higher at Olkiluoto than at Loviisa (the salinity of surface water varying at the latter from near to 0 in early spring to 4 6 in late autumn). Thus, many marine and fresh-water organisms live in the Loviisa area close to their limit of existence, which makes the biota sensitive to any additional stress. The characteristics of the discharge areas of the two sites differ from each other in many respects: the discharge area at Loviisa is a semi-enclosed bay in the inner archipelago, where the exchange of water is limited, while the discharge area at Olkiluoto is more open, and the exchange of water with the open Bothnian Sea is more effective. The effects of the cooling water discharged from the power plants on the temperatures in the sea were most obvious in winter. The formation of a permanent ice cover in the discharge areas has been delayed in early winter, and the break-up of the ice occurs earlier in spring. The prolonging of the growing season and the disturbance of the overwintering time, in conditions where the biota has adjusted to a distinct rest period in winter, have been the most significant biological effects of the thermal pollution. The soft-bottom macrofauna at Loviisa has deteriorated to the point of almost total extinction at many sampling stations during the past 40 years. A similar decline has been reported for the whole eastern Gulf of Finland. However, the local eutrophication process seems to have contributed into the decline of the zoobenthos in the discharge area at Loviisa. Thermal discharges have increased the production of organic matter, which again has led to more organic bottom deposits. These have in turn increased the tendency of the isolated deeps to a depletion of oxygen, and this has further caused strong remobilization of phosphorus from the bottom sediments. Phytoplankton primary production and primary production capacity doubled in the whole area between the late 1960s and the late 1990s, but started to decrease a little at the beginning of this century. The focus of the production shifted from spring to mid- and late summer. The general rise in the level of primary production was mainly due to the increase in nutrient concentrations over the whole Gulf of Finland, but the thermal discharge contributed to a stronger increase of production in the discharge area compared to that in the intake area. The eutrophication of littoral vegetation in the discharge area has been the most obvious, unambiguous and significant biological effect of the heated water. Myriophyllum spicatum, Potamogeton perfoliatus and Potamogeton pectinatus, and vigorous growths of numerous filamentous algae as their epiphytes have strongly increased in the vicinity of the cooling water outlet, where they have formed dense populations in the littoral zone in late summer. However, the strongest increase of phytobenthos has extended only to a distance of about 1 km from the outlet, i.e., the changes in vegetation have been largest in those areas that remain ice-free in winter. Similar trends were also discernible at Olkiluoto, but to a clearly smaller extent, which was due to the definitely weaker level of background eutrophy and nutrient concentrations in the Bothnian Sea, and the differing local hydrographical and biological factors prevailing in the Olkiluoto area. The level of primary production has also increased at Olkiluoto, but has remained at a clearly lower level than at Loviisa. In spite of the analogous changes observed in the macrozoobenthos, the benthic fauna has remained strong and diversified in the Olkiluoto area. Small amounts of local discharge nuclides were regularly detected in environmental samples taken from the discharge areas: tritium in seawater samples, and activation products, such as 60Co, 58Co, 54Mn, 110mAg, 51Cr, in suspended particulate matter, bottom sediments and in several indicator organisms (e.g., periphyton and Fucus vesiculosus) that effectively accumulate radioactive substances from the medium. The tritium discharges and the consequent detection frequency and concentrations of tritium in seawater were higher at Loviisa, but the concentrations of the activation products were higher at Olkiluoto, where traces of local discharge nuclides were also observed over a clearly wider area, due to the better exchange of water than at Loviisa, where local discharge nuclides were only detected outside Hästholmsfjärden Bay quite rarely and in smaller amounts. At the farthest, an insignificant trace amount (0.2 Bq kg-1 d.w.) of 60Co originating from Olkiluoto was detected in Fucus at a distance of 137 km from the power plant. Discharge nuclides from the local nuclear power plants were almost exclusively detected at the lower trophic levels of the ecosystems. Traces of local discharge nuclides were very seldom detected in fish, and even then only in very low quantities. As a consequence of the reduced discharges, the concentrations of local discharge nuclides in the environment have decreased noticeably in recent years at both Loviisa and Olkiluoto. Although the concentrations in environmental samples, and above all, the discharge data, are presented as seemingly large numbers, the radiation doses caused by them to the population and to the biota are very low, practically insignificant. The effects of the thermal discharges have been more significant, at least to the wildlife in the discharge areas of the cooling water, although the area of impact has been relatively small. The results show that the nutrient level and the exchange of water in the discharge area of a nuclear power plant are of crucial importance.

Coastal environmental gradients – Key to reproduction habitat mapping of freshwater fish in the Baltic Sea

Habitat requirements of fish are most strict during the early life stages, and the quality and quantity of reproduction habitats lays the basis for fish production. A considerable number of fish species in the northern Baltic Sea reproduce in the shallow coastal areas, which are also the most heavily exploited parts of the brackish marine area. However, the coastal fish reproduction habitats in the northern Baltic Sea are poorly known. The studies presented in this thesis focused on the influence of environmental conditions on the distribution of coastal reproduction habitats of freshwater fish. They were conducted in vegetated littoral zone along an exposure and salinity gradient extending from the innermost bays to the outer archipelago on the south-western and southern coasts of Finland, in the northern Baltic Sea. Special emphasis was placed on reed-covered Phragmites australis shores, which form a dominant vegetation type in several coastal archipelago areas. The main aims of this research were to (1) develop and test new survey and mapping methods, (2) investigate the environmental requirements that govern the reproduction of freshwater fish in the coastal area and (3) survey, map and model the distribution of the reproduction habitats of pike (Esox lucius) and roach (Rutilus rutilus). The white plate and scoop method with a standardized sampling time and effort was demonstrated to be a functional method for sampling the early life stages of fish in dense vegetation and shallow water. Reed-covered shores were shown to form especially important reproduction habitats for several freshwater fish species, such as pike, roach, other cyprinids and burbot, in the northern Baltic Sea. The reproduction habitats of pike were limited to sheltered reed- and moss-covered shores of the inner and middle archipelago, where suitable zooplankton prey were available and the influence of the open sea was low. The reproduction habitats of roach were even more limited and roach reproduction was successful only in the very sheltered reed-covered shores of the innermost bay areas, where salinity remained low (< 4‰) during the spawning season due to freshwater inflow. After identifying the critical factors restricting the reproduction of pike and roach, the spatial distribution of their reproduction habitats was successfully mapped and modelled along the environmental gradients using only a few environmental predictor variables. Reproduction habitat maps are a valuable tool promoting the sustainable use and management of exploited coastal areas and helping to maintain the sustainability of fish populations. However, the large environmental gradients and the extensiveness of the archipelago zone in the northern Baltic Sea demand an especially high spatial resolution of the coastal predictor variables. Therefore, the current lack of accurate large-scale, high-resolution spatial data gathered at exactly the right time is a considerable limitation for predictive modelling of shallow coastal waters.

Suomenlinnan Kustaanmiekan ketokasvillisuus ja siihen vaikuttavat tekijät

Suomenlinna on yksi Helsingin suosituimmista matkailu- ja kulttuurinähtävyyksistä. Kustaanmiekan, samoin kuin koko Suomenlinnan luonto on muodostunut perinteisestä suomalaisesta saaristoluonnosta ja vuosisatojen saatossa paikalle tulleista linnoituksien kasvistosta. Saaren vaihtelevien elinympäristöjen johdosta alueen kasvillisuus on hyvin rikasta. Linnoituksien monet kasvilajit ovat tulleet tulokaskasveina eri puolilta Eurooppaa sekä Venäjältä. Suurin osa Suomenlinnan alueesta on kallioketoa ja tämän lisäksi myös valliketoa, joista molemmat kuuluvat suojeltaviin alueisiin. Kustaanmiekan niityillä kasvaa keto- ja paahdelajeja, kuten harvinaista ketonoidanlukkoa (Botrychium lunaria L.) sekä ketoneilikkaa (Dianthus deltoides L.). Tämän tutkimuksen ensisijaisena tarkoituksena oli kartoittaa Kustaanmiekan alueen kesäkauden 2009 ketokasvilajisto ja eri putkilokasvilajien runsaus. Tutkimuksessa selvitettiin myös maaperätekijöiden ja alueen hoitohistorian mahdollista vaikutusta ketokasvilajistoon. Tutkimuksessa kartoitettiin kymmenen eri kedon kasvillisuus Suomenlinnan Kustaanmiekan linnoitusalueella. Kedot sijaitsivat eri puolilla Kustaanmiekkaa, sellaisilla paikoilla, missä ketokasvillisuus oli runsainta. Maastotyöt suoritettiin kesä- ja heinäkuussa laskemalla jokaisen kedon ruutujen putkilokasvien peittävyydet sekä listaamalla ylös myös ruutujen ulkopuoliset kevät- ja loppukesän kukkijat touko- ja elokuussa. Maaperän ominaisuuksien määrittämiseksi otettiin kultakin kedolta pintamaanäytteet elokuussa. Muita tutkittuja muuttujia olivat maapinnan kaltevuus sekä sammalen, karikkeen, paljaan maan, kenttäkasvillisuuden pohjakerros ja kallion osuus tutkimusruuduilla. Ketojen kasvillisuuden keskimääräinen korkeus mitattiin kesä- ja heinäkuussa. Kasvistossa oli selviä eroavaisuuksia ketojen välillä. Kasvilajien määrä vaihteli ketojen kokonaislajimäärän ollessa 40-60 kasvilajia. Yhteensä kedoilta löytyi 120 eri putkilokasvilajia, joista useimmat kukkivat sekä kesä- että heinäkuussa. Ketojen kasvilajimäärä vaihteli yhdellä neliömetrillä 6,3-13,6 kasvilajiin, minkä lisäksi Shannon-Wienerin diversiteetti-indeksi vaihteli 1,4-2,3 arvon välillä. Yleisimpiä lajeja, joita kedoilla tavattiin, olivat muun muassa siankärsämö (Achillea millefolium L.), koiranheinä (Dactylis glomerata L.), juolavehnä (Elymus repens L.) ja hopeahanhikki (Potentilla argentea L.). Alueella kasvoi myös muutamia sotatulokaslajeja kuten harmiota (Berteroa incana L.), ukonpalkoa (Bunias orientalis L.) ja karvahorsmaa (Epilobium hirsutum L.). Maaperätekijöillä, kuten suurella fosforin pitoisuudella ei ollut vaikutusta kasvilajien määrään kedoilla. Vain maan pH ja johtoluku korreloivat positiivisesti ketojen kasvillisuuden korkeuden kanssa. Vaikka tulosten perusteella ketojen hoidolla ei ollut vaikutusta ketojen kasvillisuuden määrään, voidaan kuitenkin olettaa oikeanlaisen hoidon parantavan tyypillisten ketokasvien kilpailukykyä muita niittykasveja kohtaan.

Rannansiirtyminen ja ihmisen toimintaympäristön muutos Mätäjokilaakson alueella esihistoriallisella ajalla

In this thesis, I study the changing ladscape and human environment of the Mätäjoki Valley, West-Helsinki, using reconstructions and predictive modelling. The study is a part of a larger project funded by the city of Helsinki aming to map the past of the Mätäjoki Valley. The changes in landscape from an archipelago in the Ancylus Lake to a river valley are studied from 10000 to 2000 years ago. Alongside shore displacement, we look at the changing environment from human perspective and predict the location of dwelling sitesat various times. As a result, two map series were produced that show how the landscape changed and where inhabitance is predicted. To back them up, we have also looked at what previous research says about the history of the waterways, climate, vegetation and archaeology. The changing landscape of the river valley is reconstructed using GIS methods. For this purpose, new laser point data set was used and at the same time tested in the context landscape modelling. Dwelling sites were modeled with logistic regression analysis. The spatial predictive model combines data on the locations of the known dwelling sites, environmental factors and shore displacement data. The predictions were visualised into raster maps that show the predictions for inhabitance 3000 and 5000 years ago. The aim of these maps was to help archaeologists map potential spots for human activity. The produced landscape reconstructions clarified previous shore displacement studies of the Mätäjoki region and provided new information on the location of shoreline. From the shore displacement history of the Mätäjoki Valley arise the following stages: 1. The northernmost hills of the Mätäjoki Valley rose from Ancylus Lake approximately 10000 years ago. Shore displacement was fast during the following thousand years. 2. The area was an archipelago with a relatively steady shoreline 9000 7000 years ago. 8000 years ago the shoreline drew back in the middle and southern parts of the river valley because of the transgression of the Litorina Sea. 3. Mätäjoki was a sheltered bay of the Litorina Sea 6000 5000 years ago. The Vantaanjoki River started to flow into the Mätäjoki Valley approximately 5000 years ago. 4. The sediment plains in the southern part of the river valley rose from the sea rather quickly 5000 3000 years ago. Salt water still pushed its way into the southermost part of the valley 4000 years ago. 5. The shoreline proceeded to Pitäjänmäki rapids where it stayed at least a thousand years 3000 2000 years ago. The predictive models managed to predict the locations of dwelling sites moderately well. The most accurate predictions were found on the eastern shore and Malminkartano area. Of the environment variables sand and aspect of slope were found to have the best predictive power. From the results of this study we can conclude that the Mätäjoki Valley has been a favorable location to live especially 6000 5000 years ago when the climate was mild and vegetation lush. The laser point data set used here works best in shore displacement studies located in rural areas or if further specific palaeogeographic or hydrologic analysis in the research area is not needed.

Lumettoman maan routaolojen mallintaminen ja ennustettavuus muuttuvassa ilmastossa

Raportissa on arvioitu ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutusta Suomen maaperän talviaikaiseen jäätymiseen lämpösummien perusteella. Laskelmat kuvaavat roudan paksuutta nimenomaisesti lumettomilla alueilla, esimerkiksi teillä, joilta satanut lumi aurataan pois. Luonnossa lämpöä eristävän lumipeitteen alla routaa on ohuemmin kuin tällaisilla lumettomilla alueilla. Toisaalta luonnollisessa ympäristössä paikalliset erot korostuvat johtuen mm. maalajeista ja kasvillisuudesta. Roudan paksuudet laskettiin ensin perusjakson 1971–2000 ilmasto-oloissa talviaikaisten säähavaintotietoihin pohjautuvien lämpötilojen perusteella. Sen jälkeen laskelmat toistettiin kolmelle tulevalle ajanjaksolle (2010–2039, 2040–2069 ja 2070–2099) kohottamalla lämpötiloja ilmastonmuutosmallien ennustamalla tavalla. Laskelman pohjana käytettiin 19 ilmastomallin A1B-skenaarioajojen keskimäärin simuloimaa lämpötilan muutosta. Tulosten herkkyyden arvioimiseksi joitakin laskelmia tehtiin myös tätä selvästi heikompaa ja voimakkaampaa lämpenemisarviota käyttäen. A1B-skenaarion mukaisen lämpötilan nousun toteutuessa nykyisiä mallituloksia vastaavasti routakerros ohenee sadan vuoden aikana Pohjois-Suomessa 30–40 %, suuressa osassa maan keski- ja eteläosissa 50–70 %. Jo lähivuosikymmeninä roudan ennustetaan ohentuvan 10–30 %, saaristossa enemmän. Mikäli lämpeneminen toteutuisi voimakkaimman tarkastellun vaihtoehdon mukaisesti, roudan syvyys pienenisi tätäkin enemmän. Roudan paksuuden vuosienvälistä vaihtelua ja sen muuttumista tulevaisuudessa pyrittiin myös arvioimaan. Leutoina talvina routa ohenee enemmän kuin normaaleina tai ankarina pakkastalvina. Päivittäistä sään vaihtelua simuloineen säägeneraattorin tuottamassa aineistoissa esiintyi kuitenkin liian vähän hyvin alhaisia ja hyvin korkeita lämpötiloja. Siksi näitten lämpötilatietojen pohjalta laskettu roudan paksuuskin ilmeisesti vaihtelee liian vähän vuodesta toiseen. Kelirikkotilanteita voi esiintyä myös kesken routakauden, jos useamman päivän suojasää ja samanaikainen runsas vesisade pääsevät sulattamaan maata. Tällaiset routakauden aikana sattuvat säätilat näyttävätkin yleistyvän lähivuosikymmeninä. Vuosisadan loppua kohti ne sen sijaan maan eteläosissa jälleen vähenevät, koska routakausi lyhenee oleellisesti. Tulevia vuosikymmeniä koskevien ilmastonmuutosennusteiden ohella routaa ja kelirikon esiintymistä on periaatteessa mahdollista ennustaa myös lähiaikojen sääennusteita hyödyntäen. Pitkät, viikkojen tai kuukausien mittaiset sääennusteet eivät tosin ole ainakaan vielä erityisen luotettavia, mutta myös lyhyemmistä ennusteista voisi olla hyötyä mm. tienpitoa suunniteltaessa.

Denitrification in the River Estuaries of the Northern Baltic Sea

Estuaries have been suggested to have an important role in reducing the nitrogen load transported to the sea. We measured denitrification rates in six estuaries of the northern Baltic Sea. Four of them were river mouths in the Bothnian Bay (northern Gulf of Bothnia), and two were estuary bays, one in the Archipelago Sea (southern Gulf of Bothnia) and the other in the Gulf of Finland. Denitrification rates in the four river mouths varied between 330 and 905 mu mol N m(-2) d(-1). The estuary bays at the Archipelago Sea and the Gulf of Bothnia had denitrification rates from 90 mu mol N m(-2) d(-1) to 910 mu mol N m(-2) d(-1) and from 230 mu mol N m(-2) d(-1) to 320 mu mol N m(-2) d(-1), respectively. Denitrification removed 3.6-9.0% of the total nitrogen loading in the river mouths and in the estuary bay in the Gulf of Finland, where the residence times were short. In the estuary bay with a long residence time, in the Archipelago Sea, up to 4.5% of nitrate loading and 19% of nitrogen loading were removed before entering the sea. According to our results, the sediments of the fast-flowing rivers and them estuary areas with short residence times have a limited capacity to reduce the nitrogen load to the Baltic Sea.