Monetary Policy, Stock Price Misalignments and Macroeconomic Instability

Perhaps the most fundamental prediction of financial theory is that the expected returns on financial assets are determined by the amount of risk contained in their payoffs. Assets with a riskier payoff pattern should provide higher expected returns than assets that are otherwise similar but provide payoffs that contain less risk. Financial theory also predicts that not all types of risks should be compensated with higher expected returns. It is well-known that the asset-specific risk can be diversified away, whereas the systematic component of risk that affects all assets remains even in large portfolios. Thus, the asset-specific risk that the investor can easily get rid of by diversification should not lead to higher expected returns, and only the shared movement of individual asset returns – the sensitivity of these assets to a set of systematic risk factors – should matter for asset pricing. It is within this framework that this thesis is situated. The first essay proposes a new systematic risk factor, hypothesized to be correlated with changes in investor risk aversion, which manages to explain a large fraction of the return variation in the cross-section of stock returns. The second and third essays investigate the pricing of asset-specific risk, uncorrelated with commonly used risk factors, in the cross-section of stock returns. The three essays mentioned above use stock market data from the U.S. The fourth essay presents a new total return stock market index for the Finnish stock market beginning from the opening of the Helsinki Stock Exchange in 1912 and ending in 1969 when other total return indices become available. Because a total return stock market index for the period prior to 1970 has not been available before, academics and stock market participants have not known the historical return that stock market investors in Finland could have achieved on their investments. The new stock market index presented in essay 4 makes it possible, for the first time, to calculate the historical average return on the Finnish stock market and to conduct further studies that require long time-series of data.

Oxidative stability of phytosterols in food models and foods

An important safety aspect to be considered when foods are enriched with phytosterols and phytostanols is the oxidative stability of these lipid compounds, i.e. their resistance to oxidation and thus to the formation of oxidation products. This study concentrated on producing scientific data to support this safety evaluation process. In the absence of an official method for analyzing of phytosterol/stanol oxidation products, we first developed a new gas chromatographic - mass spectrometric (GC-MS) method. We then investigated factors affecting these compounds' oxidative stability in lipid-based food models in order to identify critical conditions under which significant oxidation reactions may occur. Finally, the oxidative stability of phytosterols and stanols in enriched foods during processing and storage was evaluated. Enriched foods covered a range of commercially available phytosterol/stanol ingredients, different heat treatments during food processing, and different multiphase food structures. The GC-MS method was a powerful tool for measuring the oxidative stability. Data obtained in food model studies revealed that the critical factors for the formation and distribution of the main secondary oxidation products were sterol structure, reaction temperature, reaction time, and lipid matrix composition. Under all conditions studied, phytostanols as saturated compounds were more stable than unsaturated phytosterols. In addition, esterification made phytosterols more reactive than free sterols at low temperatures, while at high temperatures the situation was the reverse. Generally, oxidation reactions were more significant at temperatures above 100°C. At lower temperatures, the significance of these reactions increased with increasing reaction time. The effect of lipid matrix composition was dependent on temperature; at temperatures above 140°C, phytosterols were more stable in an unsaturated lipid matrix, whereas below 140°C they were more stable in a saturated lipid matrix. At 140°C, phytosterols oxidized at the same rate in both matrices. Regardless of temperature, phytostanols oxidized more in an unsaturated lipid matrix. Generally, the distribution of oxidation products seemed to be associated with the phase of overall oxidation. 7-ketophytosterols accumulated when oxidation had not yet reached the dynamic state. Once this state was attained, the major products were 5,6-epoxyphytosterols and 7-hydroxyphytosterols. The changes observed in phytostanol oxidation products were not as informative since all stanol oxides quantified represented hydroxyl compounds. The formation of these secondary oxidation products did not account for all of the phytosterol/stanol losses observed during the heating experiments, indicating the presence of dimeric, oligomeric or other oxidation products, especially when free phytosterols and stanols were heated at high temperatures. Commercially available phytosterol/stanol ingredients were stable during such food processes as spray-drying and ultra high temperature (UHT)-type heating and subsequent long-term storage. Pan-frying, however, induced phytosterol oxidation and was classified as a rather deteriorative process. Overall, the findings indicated that although phytosterols and stanols are stable in normal food processing conditions, attention should be paid to their use in frying. Complex interactions between other food constituents also suggested that when new phytosterol-enriched foods are developed their oxidative stability must first be established. The results presented here will assist in choosing safe conditions for phytosterol/stanol enrichment.

Topological stability through tame retractions

A smooth map is said to be stable if small perturbations of the map only differ from the original one by a smooth change of coordinates. Smoothly stable maps are generic among the proper maps between given source and target manifolds when the source and target dimensions belong to the so-called nice dimensions, but outside this range of dimensions, smooth maps cannot generally be approximated by stable maps. This leads to the definition of topologically stable maps, where the smooth coordinate changes are replaced with homeomorphisms. The topologically stable maps are generic among proper maps for any dimensions of source and target. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate methods for proving topological stability by constructing extremely tame (E-tame) retractions onto the map in question from one of its smoothly stable unfoldings. In particular, we investigate how to use E-tame retractions from stable unfoldings to find topologically ministable unfoldings for certain weighted homogeneous maps or germs. Our first results are concerned with the construction of E-tame retractions and their relation to topological stability. We study how to construct the E-tame retractions from partial or local information, and these results form our toolbox for the main constructions. In the next chapter we study the group of right-left equivalences leaving a given multigerm f invariant, and show that when the multigerm is finitely determined, the group has a maximal compact subgroup and that the corresponding quotient is contractible. This means, essentially, that the group can be replaced with a compact Lie group of symmetries without much loss of information. We also show how to split the group into a product whose components only depend on the monogerm components of f. In the final chapter we investigate representatives of the E- and Z-series of singularities, discuss their instability and use our tools to construct E-tame retractions for some of them. The construction is based on describing the geometry of the set of points where the map is not smoothly stable, discovering that by using induction and our constructional tools, we already know how to construct local E-tame retractions along the set. The local solutions can then be glued together using our knowledge about the symmetry group of the local germs. We also discuss how to generalize our method to the whole E- and Z- series.

Essays on macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy rules

Economic and Monetary Union can be characterised as a complicated set of legislation and institutions governing monetary and fiscal responsibilities. The measures of fiscal responsibility are to be guided by the Stability and Growth Pact, which sets rules for fiscal policy and makes a discretionary fiscal policy virtually impossible. To analyse the effects of the fiscal and monetary policy mix, we modified the New Keynesian framework to allow for supply effects of fiscal policy. We show that defining a supply-side channel for fiscal policy using an endogenous output gap changes the stabilising properties of monetary policy rules. The stability conditions are affected by fiscal policy, so that the dichotomy between active (passive) monetary policy and passive (active) fiscal policy as stabilising regimes does not hold, and it is possible to have an active monetary - active fiscal policy regime consistent with dynamical stability of the economy. We show that, if we take supply-side effects into ac-count, we get more persistent inflation and output reactions. We also show that the dichotomy does not hold for a variety of different fiscal policy rules based on government debt and budget deficit, using the tax smoothing hypothesis and formulating the tax rules as difference equations. The debt rule with active monetary policy results in indeterminacy, while the deficit rule produces a determinate solution with active monetary policy, even with active fiscal policy. The combination of fiscal requirements in a rule results in cyclical responses to shocks. The amplitude of the cycle is larger with more weight on debt than on deficit. Combining optimised monetary policy with fiscal policy rules means that, under a discretionary monetary policy, the fiscal policy regime affects the size of the inflation bias. We also show that commitment to an optimal monetary policy not only corrects the inflation bias but also increases the persistence of output reactions. With fiscal policy rules based on the deficit we can retain the tax smoothing hypothesis also in a sticky price model.

The mast cell as a regulator of atherosclerotic plaque stability

Atherosclerosis is an inflammatory disease progressing over years via the accumulation of cholesterol in arterial intima with subsequent formation of atherosclerotic plaques. The stability of a plaque is determined by the size of its cholesterol-rich necrotic lipid core and the thickness of the fibrous cap covering it. The strength and thickness of the cap are maintained by smooth muscle cells and the extracellular matrix produced by them. A plaque with a large lipid core and a thin cap is vulnerable to rupture that may lead to acute atherothrombotic events, such as myocardial infarction and stroke. In addition, endothelial erosion, possibly induced by apoptosis of endothelial cells, may lead to such clinical events. One of the major causes of plaque destabilization is inflammation induced by accumulated and modified lipoproteins, and exacerbated by local aberrant shear stress conditions. Macrophages, T-lymphocytes and mast cells infiltrate particularly into the plaque’s shoulder regions prone to atherothrombotic events, and they are present at the actual sites of plaque rupture and erosion. Two major mechanisms of plaque destabilization induced by inflammation are extracellular matrix remodeling and apoptosis. Mast cells are bone marrow-derived inflammatory cells that as progenitors upon chemotactic stimuli infiltrate the target tissues, such as the arterial wall, differentiate in the target tissues and mediate their effects via the release of various mediators, typically in a process called degranulation. The released preformed mast cell granules contain proteases such as tryptase, chymase and cathepsin G bound to heparin and chondroitin sulfate proteoglycans. In addition, various soluble mediators such as histamine and TNF-alpha are released. Mast cells also synthesize many mediators such as cytokines and lipid mediators upon activation. Mast cells are capable of increasing the level of LDL cholesterol in the arterial intima by increasing accumulation and retention of LDL and by decreasing removal of cholesterol by HDL in vitro. In addition, by secreting proinflammatory mediators and proteases, mast cells may induce plaque destabilization by inducing apoptosis of smooth muscle and endothelial cells. Also in vivo data from apoE-/- and ldlr-/- mice suggest a role for mast cells in the progression of atherosclerosis. Furthermore, mast cell-deficient mice have become powerful tools to study the effects of mast cells in vivo. In this study, evidence suggesting a role for mast cells in the regulation of plaque stability is presented. In a mouse model genetically susceptible to atherosclerosis, mast cell deficiency (ldlr-/-/KitW-sh/W-sh mice) was associated with a less atherogenic lipid profile, a decreased level of lipid accumulation in the aortic arterial wall and a decreased level of vascular inflammation as compared to mast-cell competent littermates. In vitro, mast cell chymase-induced smooth muscle cell apoptosis was mediated by inhibition of NF-kappaB activity, followed by downregulation of bcl-2, release of cytochrome c, and activation of caspase-8, -9 and -3. Mast cell-induced endothelial cell apoptosis was mediated by chymase and TNF-alpha, and involved chymase-mediated degradation of fibronectin and vitronectin, and inactivation of FAK- and Akt-mediated survival signaling. Subsequently, mast cells induced inhibition of NF-kappaB activity and activation of caspase-8 and -9. In addition, possible mast cell protease-mediated mechanisms of endothelial erosion may include degradation of fibronectin and VE-cadherin. Thus, the present results suggest a role for mast cells in destabilization of atherosclerotic plaques.

Generalizations and Models in Ecology : Lawlikeness, Invariance, Stability, and Robustness

The question at issue in this dissertation is the epistemic role played by ecological generalizations and models. I investigate and analyze such properties of generalizations as lawlikeness, invariance, and stability, and I ask which of these properties are relevant in the context of scientific explanations. I will claim that there are generalizable and reliable causal explanations in ecology by generalizations, which are invariant and stable. An invariant generalization continues to hold or be valid under a special change called an intervention that changes the value of its variables. Whether a generalization remains invariant during its interventions is the criterion that determines whether it is explanatory. A generalization can be invariant and explanatory regardless of its lawlike status. Stability deals with a generality that has to do with holding of a generalization in possible background conditions. The more stable a generalization, the less dependent it is on background conditions to remain true. Although it is invariance rather than stability of generalizations that furnishes us with explanatory generalizations, there is an important function that stability has in this context of explanations, namely, stability furnishes us with extrapolability and reliability of scientific explanations. I also discuss non-empirical investigations of models that I call robustness and sensitivity analyses. I call sensitivity analyses investigations in which one model is studied with regard to its stability conditions by making changes and variations to the values of the model s parameters. As a general definition of robustness analyses I propose investigations of variations in modeling assumptions of different models of the same phenomenon in which the focus is on whether they produce similar or convergent results or not. Robustness and sensitivity analyses are powerful tools for studying the conditions and assumptions where models break down and they are especially powerful in pointing out reasons as to why they do this. They show which conditions or assumptions the results of models depend on. Key words: ecology, generalizations, invariance, lawlikeness, philosophy of science, robustness, explanation, models, stability

Monetary Policy Implementation in the Interbank Market

The liquidity crisis that swept through the financial markets in 2007 triggered multi-billion losses and forced buyouts of some large banks. The resulting credit crunch is sometimes compared to the great recession in the early twentieth century. But the crisis also serves as a reminder of the significance of the interbank market and of proper central bank policy in this market. This thesis deals with implementation of monetary policy in the interbank market and examines how central bank tools affect commercial banks' decisions. I answer the following questions: • What is the relationship between the policy setup and interbank interest rate volatility? (averaging reserve requirement reduces the volatility) • What can explain a weak relationship between market liquidity and the interest rate? (high reserve requirement buffer) • What determines banks' decisions on when to satisfy the reserve requirement? (market frictions) • How did the liquidity crisis that began in 2007 affect interbank market behaviour? (resulted in higher credit risk and trading frictions as well as expected liquidity shortage)

Constructing Stability in Software Product Development during Organizational Restructurings

We all have fresh in our memory what happened to the IT sector only a few years ago when the IT-bubble burst. The upswing of productivity in this sector slowed down, investors lost large investments, many found themselves looking for a new job, and countless dreams fell apart. Product developers in the IT sector have experienced a large number of organizational restructurings since the IT boom, including rapid growth, downsizing processes, and structural reforms. Organizational restructurings seem to be a complex and continuous phenomenon people in this sector have to deal with. How do software product developers retrospectively construct their work in relation to organizational restructurings? How do organizational restructurings bring about specific social processes in product development? This working paper focuses on these questions. The overall aim is to develop an understanding of how software product developers construct their work during organizational restructurings. The theoretical frame of reference is based on a social constructionist approach and discourse analysis. This approach offers more or less radical and critical alternatives to mainstream organizational theory. Writings from this perspective attempt to investigate and understand sociocultural processes by which various realities are created. Therefore these studies aim at showing how people participate in constituting the social world (Gergen & Thatchenkery, 1996); knowledge of the world is seen to be constructed between people in daily interaction, in which language plays a central role. This means that interaction, especially the ways of talking and writing about product development during organizational restructurings, become the target of concern. This study consists of 25 in-depth interviews following a pilot study based on 57 semi-structured interviews. In this working paper I analyze 9 in-depth interviews. The interviews were conducted in eight IT firms. The analysis explores how discourses are constructed and function, as well as the consequences that follow from different discourses. The analysis shows that even though the product developers have experienced many organizational restructurings, some of which have been far-reaching, their accounts build strongly on a stability discourse. According to this discourse product development is, perhaps surprisingly, not influenced to a great extent by organizational restructurings. This does not mean that product development is static. According to the social constructionist approach, product development is constantly being reproduced and maintained in ongoing processes. In other words stable effects are also ongoing achievements and these are of particular interest in this study. The product developers maintain rather than change the product development through ongoing processes of construction, even when they experience continuous extensive organizational restructurings. The discourse of stability exists alongside other discourses, some which contradict each other. Together they direct product development and generate meanings. The product developers consequently take an active role in the construction of their work during organizational restructurings. When doing this they also negotiate credible positions for themselves