Factors affecting partitioning of private forest holdings in Finland.

Questions of the small size of non-industrial private forest (NIPF) holdings in Finland are considered and factors affecting their partitioning are analyzed. This work arises out of Finnish forest policy statements in which the small average size of holdings has been seen to have a negative influence on the economics of forestry. A survey of the literature indicates that the size of holdings is an important factor determining the costs of logging and silvicultural operations, while its influence on the timber supply is slight. The empirical data are based on a sample of 314 holdings collected by interviewing forest owners in the years 1980-86. In 1990-91 the same holdings were resurveyed by means of a postal inquiry and partly by interviewing forest owners. The principal objective in compiling the data is to assist in quantifying ownership factors that influence partitioning among different kinds of NIPF holdings. Thus the mechanism of partitioning were described and a maximum likelihood logistic regression model was constructed using seven independent holding and ownership variables. One out of four holdings had undergone partitioning in conjunction with a change in ownership, one fifth among family owned holdings and nearly a half among jointly owned holdings. The results of the logistic regression model indicate, for instance, that the odds on partitioning is about three times greater for jointly owned holdings than for family owned ones. Also, the probabilities of partitioning were estimated and the impact of independent dichotomous variables on the probability of partitioning ranged between 0.02 and 0.10. The low value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic indicates a good fit of the model and the rate of correct classification was estimated to be 88 per cent with a cutoff point of 0.5. The average size of holdings undergoing ownership changes decreased from 29.9 ha to 28.7 ha over the approximate interval 1983-90. In addition, the transition probability matrix showed that the trends towards smaller size categories mostly involved in the small size categories, less than 20 ha. The results of the study can be used in considering the effects of the small size of holdings for forestry and if the purpose is to influence partitioning through forest or rural policy.

Effect of waiting time on health outcomes and service utilization : A prospective randomized study on patients admitted to hospital for hip or knee replacement

Although the principle of equal access to medically justified treatment has been promoted by official health policies in many Western health care systems, practices do not completely meet policy targets. Waiting times for elective surgery vary between patient groups and regions, and growing problems in the availability of services threaten equal access to treatment. Waiting times have come to the attention of decision-makers, and several policy initiatives have been introduced to ensure the availability of care within a reasonable time. In Finland, for example, the treatment guarantee came into force in 2005. However, no consensus exists on optimal waiting time for different patient groups. The purpose of this multi-centre randomized controlled trial was to analyse health-related quality of life, pain and physical function in total hip or knee replacement patients during the waiting time and to evaluate whether the waiting time is associated with patients health outcomes at admission. This study also assessed whether the length of waiting time is associated with social and health services utilization in patients awaiting total hip or knee replacement. In addition, patients health-related quality of life was compared with that of the general population. Consecutive patients with a need for a primary total hip or knee replacement due to osteoarthritis were placed on the waiting list between August 2002 and November 2003. Patients were randomly assigned to a short waiting time (maximum 3 months) or a non-fixed waiting time (waiting time not fixed in advance, instead the patient followed the hospitals routine practice). Patients health-related quality of life was measured upon being placed on the waiting list and again at hospital admission using the generic 15D instrument. Pain and physical function were evaluated using the self-report Harris Hip Score for hip patients and a scale modified from the Knee Society Clinical Rating System for knee patients. Utilization measures were the use of home health care, rehabilitation and social services, physician visits and inpatient care. Health and social services use was low in both waiting time groups. The most common services used while waiting were rehabilitation services and informal care, including unpaid care provided by relatives, neighbours and volunteers. Although patients suffered from clear restrictions in usual activities and physical functioning, they seemed primarily to lean on informal care and personal networks instead of professional care. While longer waiting time did not result in poorer health-related quality of life at admission and use of services during the waiting time was similar to that at the time of placement on the list, there is likely to be higher costs of waiting by people who wait longer simply because they are using services for a longer period. In economic terms, this would represent a negative impact of waiting. Only a few reports have been published of the health-related quality of life of patients awaiting total hip or knee replacement. These findings demonstrate that, in addition to physical dimensions of health, patients suffered from restrictions in psychological well-being such as depression, distress and reduced vitality. This raises the question of how to support patients who suffer from psychological distress during the waiting time and how to develop strategies to improve patients initiatives to reduce symptoms and the burden of waiting. Key words: waiting time, total hip replacement, total knee replacement, health-related quality of life, randomized controlled trial, outcome assessment, social service, utilization of health services

Owner-driven decision support in holding-specific forest planning

Socio-economic and demographic changes among family forest owners and demands for versatile forestry decision aid motivated this study, which sought grounds for owner-driven forest planning. Finnish family forest owners’ forest-related decision making was analyzed in two interview-based qualitative studies, the main findings of which were surveyed quantitatively. Thereafter, a scheme for adaptively mixing methods in individually tailored decision support processes was constructed. The first study assessed owners’ decision-making strategies by examining varying levels of the sharing of decision-making power and the desire to learn. Five decision-making modes – trusting, learning, managing, pondering, and decisive – were discerned and discussed against conformable decision-aid approaches. The second study conceptualized smooth communication and assessed emotional, practical, and institutional boosters of and barriers to such smoothness in communicative decision support. The results emphasize the roles of trust, comprehension, and contextual services in owners’ communicative decision making. In the third study, a questionnaire tool to measure owners’ attitudes towards communicative planning was constructed by using trusting, learning, and decisive dimensions. Through a multivariate analysis of survey data, three owner groups were identified as fusions of the original decision-making modes: trusting learners (53%), decisive learners (27%), and decisive managers (20%). Differently weighted communicative services are recommended for these compound wishes. The findings of the studies above were synthesized in a form of adaptive decision analysis (ADA), which allows and encourages the decision-maker (owner) to make deliberate choices concerning the phases of a decision aid (planning) process. The ADA model relies on adaptability and feedback management, which foster smooth communication with the owner and (inter-)organizational learning of the planning institution(s). The summarized results indicate that recognizing the communication-related amenity values of family forest owners may be crucial in developing planning and extension services. It is therefore recommended that owners, root-level planners, consultation professionals, and pragmatic researchers collaboratively continue to seek stable change.

An approach to palaeoseismicity in the Olkiluoto (sea) area during the early Holocene

Olkiluoto Island is situated in the northern Baltic Sea, near the southwestern coast of Finland, and is the proposed location of a spent nuclear fuel repository. This study examined Holocene palaeoseismicity in the Olkiluoto area and in the surrounding sea areas by computer simulations together with acoustic-seismic, sedimentological and dating methods. The most abundant rock type on the island is migmatic mica gneiss, intruded by tonalites, granodiorites and granites. The surrounding Baltic Sea seabed consists of Palaeoproterozoic crystalline bedrock, which is to a great extent covered by younger Mesoproterozoic sedimentary rocks. The area contains several ancient deep-seated fracture zones that divide it into bedrock blocks. The response of bedrock at the Olkiluoto site was modelled considering four future ice-age scenarios. Each scenario produced shear displacements of fractures with different times of occurrence and varying recovery rates. Generally, the larger the maximum ice load, the larger were the permanent shear displacements. For a basic case, the maximum shear displacements were a few centimetres at the proposed nuclear waste repository level, at proximately 500 m b.s.l. High-resolution, low-frequency echo-sounding was used to examine the Holocene submarine sedimentary structures and possible direct and indirect indicators of palaeoseismic activity in the northern Baltic Sea. Echo-sounding profiles of Holocene submarine sediments revealed slides and slumps, normal faults, debris flows and turbidite-type structures. The profiles also showed pockmarks and other structures related to gas or groundwater seepages, which might be related to fracture zone activation. Evidence of postglacial reactivation in the study area was derived from the spatial occurrence of some of the structures, especial the faults and the seepages, in the vicinity of some old bedrock fracture zones. Palaeoseismic event(s) (a single or several events) in the Olkiluoto area were dated and the palaeoenvironment was characterized using palaeomagnetic, biostratigraphical and lithostratigraphical methods, enhancing the reliability of the chronology. Combined lithostratigraphy, biostratigraphy and palaeomagnetic stratigraphy revealed an age estimation of 10 650 to 10 200 cal. years BP for the palaeoseismic event(s). All Holocene sediment faults in the northern Baltic Sea occur at the same stratigraphical level, the age of which is estimated at 10 700 cal. years BP (9500 radiocarbon years BP). Their movement is suggested to have been triggered by palaeoseismic event(s) when the Late Weichselian ice sheet was retreating from the site and bedrock stresses were released along the bedrock fracture zones. Since no younger or repeated traces of seismic events were found, it corroborates the suggestion that the major seismic activity occurred within a short time during and after the last deglaciation. The origin of the gas/groundwater seepages remains unclear. Their reflections in the echo-sounding profiles imply that part of the gas is derived from the organic-bearing Litorina and modern gyttja clays. However, at least some of the gas is derived from the bedrock. Additional information could be gained by pore water analysis from the pockmarks. Information on postglacial fault activation and possible gas and/or fluid discharges under high hydraulic heads has relevance in evaluating the safety assessment of a planned spent nuclear fuel repository in the region.

Joint Regression and Association Models for Repeated Categorical Responses

The focus of this study is on statistical analysis of categorical responses, where the response values are dependent of each other. The most typical example of this kind of dependence is when repeated responses have been obtained from the same study unit. For example, in Paper I, the response of interest is the pneumococcal nasopharengyal carriage (yes/no) on 329 children. For each child, the carriage is measured nine times during the first 18 months of life, and thus repeated respones on each child cannot be assumed independent of each other. In the case of the above example, the interest typically lies in the carriage prevalence, and whether different risk factors affect the prevalence. Regression analysis is the established method for studying the effects of risk factors. In order to make correct inferences from the regression model, the associations between repeated responses need to be taken into account. The analysis of repeated categorical responses typically focus on regression modelling. However, further insights can also be gained by investigating the structure of the association. The central theme in this study is on the development of joint regression and association models. The analysis of repeated, or otherwise clustered, categorical responses is computationally difficult. Likelihood-based inference is often feasible only when the number of repeated responses for each study unit is small. In Paper IV, an algorithm is presented, which substantially facilitates maximum likelihood fitting, especially when the number of repeated responses increase. In addition, a notable result arising from this work is the freely available software for likelihood-based estimation of clustered categorical responses.

Constructing Ethical Patterns in Times of Globalization : Hans Küng's Global Ethic Project and Beyond

The purpose of this study is to evaluate contemporary philosophical models for global ethics in light of the Catholic theologian Hans Küng s Global Ethic Project (Projekt Weltethos). Küng s project starts with the motto, No survival without world ethos. No global peace without peace between religions. I will use the philosophically multidimensional potential of Projekt Weltethos in terms of its possible philosophical interpretations to evaluate the general discussion of global ethics within political philosophy today. This is important in its own right, but also because through it, opportunities will emerge to articulate Küng s relatively general argument in a way that leaves less room for mutually contradictory concretizations of what global ethics ultimately should be like. The most important question in this study is the problem of religious and ideological exclusivism and its relation to the ethically consistent articulation of global ethics. I will first explore the question of the role of religion as the basis for ethics in general and what Küng may mean by his claim that only the unconditional can oblige unconditionally. I will reconstruct two different overall philosophical interpretations of the relationship between religious faith and human rationality, each having two different sub-divisions: a liberal interpretation amounts to either a Kantian-Scheiermacherian or a Jaspersian view, whereas what I call postliberal interpretation amounts to either an Aristotelian-Thomistic or an Augustinian view. Thereafter, I will further clarify how Küng views the nature of ethics beyond the question of its principal foundation in religious faith: Küng searches for a middle way between consequentialist and non-consequentialist ethics, a way in which the latter dimension has the final stake. I will then set out to concretize further this more or less general notion of the theoretical potential of Projekt Weltethos in terms of certain precise philosophico-political models. I categorize these models according to their liberal or postliberal orientation. The liberal concretization leads me to consider a wide spectrum of post-Kantian and post-Hegelian models from Rawls to Derrida, while the alternative concretization opens up my ultimate argument in favor of a postliberal type of modus vivendi. I will suggest that the only theoretically and practically plausible way to promote global ethics, in itself a major imperative today, is the recognition of a fundamental and necessary contest between mutually exclusive ideologies in the public sphere. On this basis I will proceed to my postliberal proposal, namely, that a constructive and peaceful encountering of exclusive difference as an ethical vantage point for an intercultural and inter-religious peace dialogue is the most acute challenge for global ethics today.

Characterisation, cloning and production of industrially interesting enzymes: gluconolactone oxidase of Penicillium cyaneo-fulvum and gluconate 5-dehydrogenase of Gluconobacter suboxydans

The work covered in this thesis is focused on the development of technology for bioconversion of glucose into D-erythorbic acid (D-EA) and 5-ketogluconic acid (5-KGA). The task was to show on proof-of-concept level the functionality of the enzymatic conversion or one-step bioconversion of glucose to these acids. The feasibility of both studies to be further developed for production processes was also evaluated. The glucose - D-EA bioconversion study was based on the use of a cloned gene encoding a D-EA forming soluble flavoprotein, D-gluconolactone oxidase (GLO). GLO was purified from Penicillium cyaneo-fulvum and partially sequenced. The peptide sequences obtained were used to isolate a cDNA clone encoding the enzyme. The cloned gene (GenBank accession no. AY576053) is homologous to the other known eukaryotic lactone oxidases and also to some putative prokaryotic lactone oxidases. Analysis of the deduced protein sequence of GLO indicated the presence of a typical secretion signal sequence at the N-terminus of the enzyme. No other targeting/anchoring signals were found, suggesting that GLO is the first known lactone oxidase that is secreted rather than targeted to the membranes of the endoplasmic reticulum or mitochondria. Experimental evidence supports this analysis, as near complete secretion of GLO was observed in two different yeast expression systems. Highest expression levels of GLO were obtained using Pichia pastoris as an expression host. Recombinant GLO was characterised and the suitability of purified GLO for the production of D-EA was studied. Immobilised GLO was found to be rapidly inactivated during D-EA production. The feasibility of in vivo glucose - D-EA conversion using a P. pastoris strain co-expressing the genes of GLO and glucose oxidase (GOD, E.C. 1.1.3.4) of A. niger was demonstrated. The glucose - 5-KGA bioconversion study followed a similar strategy to that used in the D-EA production research. The rationale was based on the use of a cloned gene encoding a membrane-bound pyrroloquinoline quinone (PQQ)-dependent gluconate 5-dehydrogenase (GA 5-DH). GA 5-DH was purified to homogeneity from the only source of this enzyme known in literature, Gluconobacter suboxydans, and partially sequenced. Using the amino acid sequence information, the GA 5-DH gene was cloned from a genomic library of G. suboxydans. The cloned gene was sequenced (GenBank accession no. AJ577472) and found to be an operon of two adjacent genes encoding two subunits of GA 5-DH. It turned out that GA 5-DH is a rather close homologue of a sorbitol dehydrogenase from another G. suboxydans strain. It was also found that GA 5-DH has significant polyol dehydrogenase activity. The G. suboxydans GA 5-DH gene was poorly expressed in E. coli. Under optimised conditions maximum expression levels of GA 5-DH did not exceed the levels found in wild-type G. suboxydans. Attempts to increase expression levels resulted in repression of growth and extensive cell lysis. However, the expression levels were sufficient to demonstrate the possibility of bioconversion of glucose and gluconate into 5-KGA using recombinant strains of E. coli. An uncharacterised homologue of GA 5-DH was identified in Xanthomonas campestris using in silico screening. This enzyme encoded by chromosomal locus NP_636946 was found by a sequencing project of X. campestris and named as a hypothetical glucose dehydrogenase. The gene encoding this uncharacterised enzyme was cloned, expressed in E. coli and found to encode a gluconate/polyol dehydrogenase without glucose dehydrogenase activity. Moreover, the X. campestris GA 5-DH gene was expressed in E. coli at nearly 30 times higher levels than the G. suboxydans GA 5-DH gene. Good expressability of the X. campestris GA-5DH gene makes it a valuable tool not only for 5-KGA production in the tartaric acid (TA) bioprocess, but possibly also for other bioprocesses (e.g. oxidation of sorbitol into L-sorbose). In addition to glucose - 5-KGA bioconversion, a preliminary study of the feasibility of enzymatic conversion of 5-KGA into TA was carried out. Here, the efficacy of the first step of a prospective two-step conversion route including a transketolase and a dehydrogenase was confirmed. It was found that transketolase convert 5-KGA into TA semialdehyde. A candidate for the second step was suggested to be succinic dehydrogenase, but this was not tested. The analysis of the two subprojects indicated that bioconversion of glucose to TA using X. campestris GA 5-DH should be prioritised first and the process development efforts in future should be focused on development of more efficient GA 5-DH production strains by screening a more suitable production host and by protein engineering.

Phytoplankton ecology of subarctic lakes in Finnish Lapland

Climate is warming and it is especially seen in arctic areas, where the warming trend is expected to be greatest. Arctic freshwater ecosystems, which are a very characteristic feature of the arctic landscape, are especially sensitive to climate change. They could be used as early warning systems, but more information about the ecosystem functioning and responses are needed for proper interpretation of the observations. Phytoplankton species and assemblages could be especially suitable for climate-related studies, since they have short generation times and react rapidly to changes in the environment. In addition, phytoplankton provides a good tool for lake classifications, since different species have different requirements and tolerance ranges for various environmental factors. The use of biological indicators is especially useful in arctic areas, were many of the chemical factors commonly fall under the detection limit and therefore do not provide much information about the environment. This work brings new information about species distribution and dynamics of arctic freshwater phytoplankton in relation to environmental factors. The phytoplankton of lakes in Finnish Lapland and other European high-altitude or high-latitude areas were compared. Most lakes were oligotrophic and dominated by flagellated species belonging to chrysophytes, cryptophytes and dinoflagellates. In Finnish Lapland cryptophytes were of less importance, whereas desmids had high species richness in many of the lakes. In Pan-European scale, geographical and catchment-related factors were explaining most of the differences in species distributions between different districts, whereas lake water chemistry (especially conductivity, SiO2 and pH) was most important regionally. Seasonal and interannual variation of phytoplankton was studied in subarctic Lake Saanajärvi. Characteristic phytoplankton species in this oligotrophic, dimictic lake belonged mainly to chrysophytes and diatoms. The maximum phytoplankton biomass in Lake Saanajärvi occurs during autumn, while spring biomass is very low. During years with heavy snow cover the lake suffers from pH drop caused by melt waters, but the effects of this acid pulse are restricted to surface layers and last for a relatively short period. In addition to some chemical parameters (mainly Ca and nutrients), length of the mixing cycle and physical factors such as lake water temperature and thermal stability of water column had major impact on phytoplankton dynamics. During a year with long and strong thermal stability, the phytoplankton community developed towards an equilibrium state, with heavy dominance of only a few taxa for a longer period of time. During a year with higher windiness and less thermal stability, the species composition was more diverse and species with different functional strategies were able to occur simultaneously. The results of this work indicate that although arctic lakes in general share many common features concerning their catchment and water chemistry, large differences in biological features can be found even in a relatively small area. Most likely the lakes with very different algal flora do not respond in a similar way to differences in the environmental factors, and more information about specific arctic lake types is needed. The results also show considerable year to year differences in phytoplankton species distribution and dynamics, and these changes are most likely linked to climatic factors.

Development of a new flexor tendon repair technique performed with bioabsorbable poly-L/D-lactide (PLDLA) suture

Sormen koukistajajännevamman korjauksen jälkeisen aktiivisen mobilisaation on todettu johtavan parempaan toiminnalliseen lopputulokseen kuin nykyisin yleisesti käytetyn dynaamisen mobilisaation. Aktiivisen mobilisaation ongelma on jännekorjauksen pettämisriskin lisääntyminen nykyisten ommeltekniikoiden riittämättömän vahvuuden vuoksi. Jännekorjauksen lujuutta on parannettu kehittämällä monisäieommeltekniikoita, joissa jänteeseen tehdään useita rinnakkaisia ydinompeleita. Niiden kliinistä käyttöä rajoittaa kuitenkin monimutkainen ja aikaa vievä tekninen suoritus. Käden koukistajajännekorjauksessa käytetään yleisesti sulamattomia ommelmateriaaleja. Nykyiset käytössä olevat biohajoavat langat heikkenevät liian nopeasti jänteen paranemiseen nähden. Biohajoavan laktidistereokopolymeeri (PLDLA) 96/4 – langan vetolujuuden puoliintumisajan sekä kudosominaisuuksien on aiemmin todettu soveltuvan koukistajajännekorjaukseen. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli kehittää välittömän aktiivisen mobilisaation kestävä ja toteutukseltaan yksinkertainen käden koukistajajännekorjausmenetelmä biohajoavaa PLDLA 96/4 –materiaalia käyttäen. Tutkimuksessa analysoitiin viiden eri yleisesti käytetyn koukistajajänneompeleen biomekaanisia ominaisuuksia staattisessa vetolujuustestauksessa ydinompeleen rakenteellisten ominaisuuksien – 1) säikeiden (lankojen) lukumäärän, 2) langan paksuuden ja 3) ompeleen konfiguraation – vaikutuksen selvittämiseksi jännekorjauksen pettämiseen ja vahvuuteen. Jännekorjausten näkyvän avautumisen todettiin alkavan perifeerisen ompeleen pettäessä voima-venymäkäyrän myötöpisteessä. Ydinompeleen lankojen lukumäärän lisääminen paransi ompeleen pitokykyä jänteessä ja suurensi korjauksen myötövoimaa. Sen sijaan paksumman (vahvemman) langan käyttäminen tai ompeleen konfiguraatio eivät vaikuttaneet myötövoimaan. Tulosten perusteella tutkittiin mahdollisuuksia lisätä ompeleen pitokykyä jänteestä yksinkertaisella monisäieompeleella, jossa ydinommel tehtiin kolmen säikeen polyesterilangalla tai nauhamaisen rakenteen omaavalla kolmen säikeen polyesterilangalla. Nauhamainen rakenne lisäsi merkitsevästi ompeleen pitokykyä jänteessä parantaen myötövoimaa sekä maksimivoimaa. Korjauksen vahvuus ylitti aktiivisen mobilisaation jännekorjaukseen kohdistaman kuormitustason. PLDLA 96/4 –langan soveltuvuutta koukistajajännekorjaukseen selvitettiin tutkimalla langan biomekaanisia ominaisuuksia ja solmujen pito-ominaisuuksia staattisessa vetolujuustestauksessa verrattuna yleisimmin jännekorjauksessa käytettävään punottuun polyesterilankaan (Ticron®). PLDLA –langan todettiin soveltuvan hyvin koukistajajännekorjaukseen, sillä se on polyesterilankaa venymättömämpi ja solmujen pitävyys on parempi. Viimeisessä vaiheessa tutkittiin PLDLA 96/4 –langasta valmistetulla kolmisäikeisellä, nauhamaisella jännekorjausvälineellä tehdyn jännekorjauksen kestävyyttä staattisessa vetolujuustestauksessa sekä syklisessä kuormituksessa, joka simuloi staattista testausta paremmin mobilisaation toistuvaa kuormitusta. PLDLA-korjauksen vahvuus ylitti sekä staattisessa että syklisessä kuormituksessa aktiivisen mobilisaation edellyttämän vahvuuden. Nauhamaista litteää ommelmateriaalia ei aiemmin ole tutkittu tai käytetty käden koukistajajännekorjauksessa. Tässä tutkimuksessa ommelmateriaalin nauhamainen rakenne paransi merkitsevästi jännekorjauksen vahvuutta, minkä arvioidaan johtuvan lisääntyneestä kontaktipinnasta jänteen ja ommelmateriaalin välillä estäen ompeleen läpileikkautumista jänteessä. Tutkimuksessa biohajoavasta PLDLA –materiaalista valmistetulla rakenteeltaan nauhamaisella kolmisäikeisellä langalla tehdyn jännekorjauksen vahvuus saavutti aktiivisen mobilisaation edellyttämän tason. Lisäksi uusi menetelmä on helppokäyttöinen ja sillä vältetään perinteisten monisäieompeleiden tekniseen suoritukseen liittyvät ongelmat.

Quantifying Time Awake Posturographically

This thesis focuses on the issue of testing sleepiness quantitatively. The issue is relevant to policymakers concerned with traffic- and occupational safety; such testing provides a tool for safety legislation and -surveillance. The findings of this thesis provide guidelines for a posturographic sleepiness tester. Sleepiness ensuing from staying awake merely 17 h impairs our performance as much as the legally proscribed blood alcohol concentration 0.5 does. Hence, sleepiness is a major risk factor in transportation and occupational accidents. The lack of convenient, commercial sleepiness tests precludes testing impending sleepiness levels contrary to simply breath testing for alcohol intoxication. Posturography is a potential sleepiness test, since clinical diurnal balance testing suggests the hypothesis that time awake could be posturographically estimable. Relying on this hypothesis this thesis examines posturographic sleepiness testing for instrumentation purposes. Empirical results from 63 subjects for whom we tested balance with a force platform during wakefulness for maximum 36 h show that sustained wakefulness impairs balance. The results show that time awake is posturographically estimable with 88% accuracy and 97% precision which validates our hypothesis. Results also show that balance scores tested at 13:30 hours serve as a threshold to detect excessive sleepiness. Analytical results show that the test length has a marked effect on estimation accuracy: 18 s tests suffice to identify sleepiness related balance changes, but trades off some of the accuracy achieved with 30 s tests. The procedure to estimate time awake relies on equating the subject s test score to a reference table (comprising balance scores tested during sustained wakefulness, regressed against time awake). Empirical results showed that sustained wakefulness explains 60% of the diurnal balance variations, whereas the time of day explains 40% of the balance variations. The latter fact implies that time awake estimations also must rely on knowing the local times of both test and reference scores.

Maximum Loss Calculation using Scenario Analysis, Heavy Tails and Implied Volatility Patterns

The objective of this paper is to improve option risk monitoring by examining the information content of implied volatility and by introducing the calculation of a single-sum expected risk exposure similar to the Value-at-Risk. The figure is calculated in two steps. First, there is a need to estimate the value of a portfolio of options for a number of different market scenarios, while the second step is to summarize the information content of the estimated scenarios into a single-sum risk measure. This involves the use of probability theory and return distributions, which confronts the user with the problems of non-normality in the return distribution of the underlying asset. Here the hyperbolic distribution is used to describe one alternative for dealing with heavy tails. Results indicate that the information content of implied volatility is useful when predicting future large returns in the underlying asset. Further, the hyperbolic distribution provides a good fit to historical returns enabling a more accurate definition of statistical intervals and extreme events.

Non-industrial private forest landowners’ choices of timber management strategies and potential allowable cut.

In the study, the potential allowable cut in the district of Pohjois-Savo - based on the non-industrial private forest landowners' (NIPF) choices of timber management strategies - was clarified. Alternative timber management strategies were generated, and the choices and factors affecting the choices of timber management strategies by NIPF landowners were studied. The choices of timber management strategies were solved by maximizing the utility functions of the NIPF landowners. The parameters of the utility functions were estimated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The level of the potential allowable cut was compared to the cutting budgets based on the 7th and 8th National Forest Inventories (NFI7 and NFI8), to the combining of private forestry plans, and to the realized drain from non-industrial private forests. The potential allowable cut was calculated using the same MELA system as has been used in the calculation of the national cutting budget. The data consisted of the NIPF holdings (from the TASO planning system) that had been inventoried compartmentwise and had forestry plans made during the years 1984-1992. The NIPF landowners' choices of timber management strategies were clarified by a two-phase mail inquiry. The most preferred strategy obtained was "sustainability" (chosen by 62 % of landowners). The second in order of preference was "finance" (17 %) and the third was "saving" (11 %). "No cuttings", and "maximum cuttings" were the least preferred (9 % and 1 %, resp.). The factors promoting the choices of strategies with intensive cuttings were a) "farmer as forest owner" and "owning fields", b) "increase in the size of the forest holding", c) agriculture and forestry orientation in production, d) "decreasing short term stumpage earning expectations", e) "increasing intensity of future cuttings", and f) "choice of forest taxation system based on site productivity". The potential allowable cut defined in the study was 20 % higher than the average of the realized drain during the years 1988-1993, which in turn, was at the same level as the cutting budget based on the combining of forestry plans in eastern Finland. Respectively, the potential allowable cut defined in the study was 12 % lower than the NFI8-based greatest sustained allowable cut for the 1990s. Using the method presented in this study, timber management strategies can be clarified for non-industrial private forest landowners in different parts of Finland. Based on the choices of timber managemet strategies, regular cutting budgets can be calculated more realistically than before.