30 resultados para Logic and Probabilistic Models

em Helda - Digital Repository of University of Helsinki


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Bertrand Russell (1872 1970) introduced the English-speaking philosophical world to modern, mathematical logic and foundational study of mathematics. The present study concerns the conception of logic that underlies his early logicist philosophy of mathematics, formulated in The Principles of Mathematics (1903). In 1967, Jean van Heijenoort published a paper, Logic as Language and Logic as Calculus, in which he argued that the early development of modern logic (roughly the period 1879 1930) can be understood, when considered in the light of a distinction between two essentially different perspectives on logic. According to the view of logic as language, logic constitutes the general framework for all rational discourse, or meaningful use of language, whereas the conception of logic as calculus regards logic more as a symbolism which is subject to reinterpretation. The calculus-view paves the way for systematic metatheory, where logic itself becomes a subject of mathematical study (model-theory). Several scholars have interpreted Russell s views on logic with the help of the interpretative tool introduced by van Heijenoort,. They have commonly argued that Russell s is a clear-cut case of the view of logic as language. In the present study a detailed reconstruction of the view and its implications is provided, and it is argued that the interpretation is seriously misleading as to what he really thought about logic. I argue that Russell s conception is best understood by setting it in its proper philosophical context. This is constituted by Immanuel Kant s theory of mathematics. Kant had argued that purely conceptual thought basically, the logical forms recognised in Aristotelian logic cannot capture the content of mathematical judgments and reasonings. Mathematical cognition is not grounded in logic but in space and time as the pure forms of intuition. As against this view, Russell argued that once logic is developed into a proper tool which can be applied to mathematical theories, Kant s views turn out to be completely wrong. In the present work the view is defended that Russell s logicist philosophy of mathematics, or the view that mathematics is really only logic, is based on what I term the Bolzanian account of logic . According to this conception, (i) the distinction between form and content is not explanatory in logic; (ii) the propositions of logic have genuine content; (iii) this content is conferred upon them by special entities, logical constants . The Bolzanian account, it is argued, is both historically important and throws genuine light on Russell s conception of logic.

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The focus of this study is on statistical analysis of categorical responses, where the response values are dependent of each other. The most typical example of this kind of dependence is when repeated responses have been obtained from the same study unit. For example, in Paper I, the response of interest is the pneumococcal nasopharengyal carriage (yes/no) on 329 children. For each child, the carriage is measured nine times during the first 18 months of life, and thus repeated respones on each child cannot be assumed independent of each other. In the case of the above example, the interest typically lies in the carriage prevalence, and whether different risk factors affect the prevalence. Regression analysis is the established method for studying the effects of risk factors. In order to make correct inferences from the regression model, the associations between repeated responses need to be taken into account. The analysis of repeated categorical responses typically focus on regression modelling. However, further insights can also be gained by investigating the structure of the association. The central theme in this study is on the development of joint regression and association models. The analysis of repeated, or otherwise clustered, categorical responses is computationally difficult. Likelihood-based inference is often feasible only when the number of repeated responses for each study unit is small. In Paper IV, an algorithm is presented, which substantially facilitates maximum likelihood fitting, especially when the number of repeated responses increase. In addition, a notable result arising from this work is the freely available software for likelihood-based estimation of clustered categorical responses.

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Myrkyllisten aineiden jakaumat ja vaikutusmallit jätealueiden ympäristöriskien analyysissä.

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In this paper we present simple methods for construction and evaluation of finite-state spell-checking tools using an existing finite-state lexical automaton, freely available finite-state tools and Internet corpora acquired from projects such as Wikipedia. As an example, we use a freely available open-source implementation of Finnish morphology, made with traditional finite-state morphology tools, and demonstrate rapid building of Northern Sámi and English spell checkers from tools and resources available from the Internet.

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We solve the Dynamic Ehrenfeucht-Fra\"iss\'e Game on linear orders for both players, yielding a normal form for quantifier-rank equivalence classes of linear orders in first-order logic, infinitary logic, and generalized-infinitary logics with linearly ordered clocks. We show that Scott Sentences can be manipulated quickly, classified into local information, and consistency can be decided effectively in the length of the Scott Sentence. We describe a finite set of linked automata moving continuously on a linear order. Running them on ordinals, we compute the ordinal truth predicate and compute truth in the constructible universe of set-theory. Among the corollaries are a study of semi-models as efficient database of both model-theoretic and formulaic information, and a new proof of the atomicity of the Boolean algebra of sentences consistent with the theory of linear order -- i.e., that the finitely axiomatized theories of linear order are dense.

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Malli on logiikassa käytetty abstraktio monille matemaattisille objekteille. Esimerkiksi verkot, ryhmät ja metriset avaruudet ovat malleja. Äärellisten mallien teoria on logiikan osa-alue, jossa tarkastellaan logiikkojen, formaalien kielten, ilmaisuvoimaa malleissa, joiden alkioiden lukumäärä on äärellinen. Rajoittuminen äärellisiin malleihin mahdollistaa tulosten soveltamisen teoreettisessa tietojenkäsittelytieteessä, jonka näkökulmasta logiikan kaavoja voidaan ajatella ohjelmina ja äärellisiä malleja niiden syötteinä. Lokaalisuus tarkoittaa logiikan kyvyttömyyttä erottaa toisistaan malleja, joiden paikalliset piirteet vastaavat toisiaan. Väitöskirjassa tarkastellaan useita lokaalisuuden muotoja ja niiden säilymistä logiikkoja yhdistellessä. Kehitettyjä työkaluja apuna käyttäen osoitetaan, että Gaifman- ja Hanf-lokaalisuudeksi kutsuttujen varianttien välissä on lokaalisuuskäsitteiden hierarkia, jonka eri tasot voidaan erottaa toisistaan kasvavaa dimensiota olevissa hiloissa. Toisaalta osoitetaan, että lokaalisuuskäsitteet eivät eroa toisistaan, kun rajoitutaan tarkastelemaan äärellisiä puita. Järjestysinvariantit logiikat ovat kieliä, joissa on käytössä sisäänrakennettu järjestysrelaatio, mutta sitä on käytettävä siten, etteivät kaavojen ilmaisemat asiat riipu valitusta järjestyksestä. Määritelmää voi motivoida tietojenkäsittelyn näkökulmasta: vaikka ohjelman syötteen tietojen järjestyksellä ei olisi odotetun tuloksen kannalta merkitystä, on syöte tietokoneen muistissa aina jossakin järjestyksessä, jota ohjelma voi laskennassaan hyödyntää. Väitöskirjassa tutkitaan minkälaisia lokaalisuuden muotoja järjestysinvariantit ensimmäisen kertaluvun predikaattilogiikan laajennukset yksipaikkaisilla kvanttoreilla voivat toteuttaa. Tuloksia sovelletaan tarkastelemalla, milloin sisäänrakennettu järjestys lisää logiikan ilmaisuvoimaa äärellisissä puissa.

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What can the statistical structure of natural images teach us about the human brain? Even though the visual cortex is one of the most studied parts of the brain, surprisingly little is known about how exactly images are processed to leave us with a coherent percept of the world around us, so we can recognize a friend or drive on a crowded street without any effort. By constructing probabilistic models of natural images, the goal of this thesis is to understand the structure of the stimulus that is the raison d etre for the visual system. Following the hypothesis that the optimal processing has to be matched to the structure of that stimulus, we attempt to derive computational principles, features that the visual system should compute, and properties that cells in the visual system should have. Starting from machine learning techniques such as principal component analysis and independent component analysis we construct a variety of sta- tistical models to discover structure in natural images that can be linked to receptive field properties of neurons in primary visual cortex such as simple and complex cells. We show that by representing images with phase invariant, complex cell-like units, a better statistical description of the vi- sual environment is obtained than with linear simple cell units, and that complex cell pooling can be learned by estimating both layers of a two-layer model of natural images. We investigate how a simplified model of the processing in the retina, where adaptation and contrast normalization take place, is connected to the nat- ural stimulus statistics. Analyzing the effect that retinal gain control has on later cortical processing, we propose a novel method to perform gain control in a data-driven way. Finally we show how models like those pre- sented here can be extended to capture whole visual scenes rather than just small image patches. By using a Markov random field approach we can model images of arbitrary size, while still being able to estimate the model parameters from the data.

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The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

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This paper examines how volatility in financial markets can preferable be modeled. The examination investigates how good the models for the volatility, both linear and nonlinear, are in absorbing skewness and kurtosis. The examination is done on the Nordic stock markets, including Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Different linear and nonlinear models are applied, and the results indicates that a linear model can almost always be used for modeling the series under investigation, even though nonlinear models performs slightly better in some cases. These results indicate that the markets under study are exposed to asymmetric patterns only to a certain degree. Negative shocks generally have a more prominent effect on the markets, but these effects are not really strong. However, in terms of absorbing skewness and kurtosis, nonlinear models outperform linear ones.

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The discussion of a service-dominant logic has made the findings of decades of service marketing research a topic of interest for marketing at large. Some fundamental aspects of the logic such as value creation and its marketing implications are more complex than they have been treated as so far and need to be further developed to serve marketing theory and practice well. Following the analysis in the present article it is argued that although customers are co-producers in service processes, according to the value-in-use notion adopted in the contemporary marketing and management literature they are fundamentally the creators of value for themselves. Furthermore, it is concluded that although by providing goods and services as input resources into customers’ consumption and value-generating processes firms are fundamentally value facilitators, interactions with customers that exist or can be created enable firms to engage themselves with their customers’ processes and thereby they become co-creators of value with their customers. As marketing implications it is observed that 1) the goal of marketing is to support customers’ value creation, 2) following a service logic and due to the existence of interactions where the firm’s and the customer’s processes merge into an integrated joint value creation process, the firm is not restricted to making value propositions only, but can directly and actively influence the customer’s value fulfilment as well and extend its marketing process to include activities during customer-firm interactions, and 3) although all goods and services are consumed as service, customers’ purchasing decisions can be expected to be dependant of whether they have the skills and interest to use a resource, such as a good, as service or want to buy extended market offerings including process-related elements. Finally, the analysis concludes with five service logic theses.

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In order to further develop the logic of service, value creation, value co-creation and value have to be formally and rigorously defined, so that the nature, content and locus of value and the roles of service providers and customers in value creation can be unambiguously assessed. In the present article, following the underpinning logic of value-in-use, it is demonstrated that in order to achieve this, value creation is best defined as the customer’s creation of value-in-use. The analysis shows that the firm’s and customer’s processes and activities can be divided into a provider sphere, closed for the customer, and a customer sphere, closed for the firm. Value creation occurs in the customer sphere, whereas firms in the provider sphere facilitate value creation by producing resources and processes which represent potential value or expected value-in use for their customers. By getting access to the closed customer sphere, firms can create a joint value sphere and engage in customers’ value creation as co-creators of value with them. This approach establishes a theoretically sound foundation for understanding value creation in service logic, and enables meaningful managerial implications, for example as to what is required for co-creation of value, and also further theoretical elaborations.