On the behaviour of some physical parameterization methods in high-resolution numerical weather prediction models

Modern-day weather forecasting is highly dependent on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models as the main data source. The evolving state of the atmosphere with time can be numerically predicted by solving a set of hydrodynamic equations, if the initial state is known. However, such a modelling approach always contains approximations that by and large depend on the purpose of use and resolution of the models. Present-day NWP systems operate with horizontal model resolutions in the range from about 40 km to 10 km. Recently, the aim has been to reach operationally to scales of 1 4 km. This requires less approximations in the model equations, more complex treatment of physical processes and, furthermore, more computing power. This thesis concentrates on the physical parameterization methods used in high-resolution NWP models. The main emphasis is on the validation of the grid-size-dependent convection parameterization in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) and on a comprehensive intercomparison of radiative-flux parameterizations. In addition, the problems related to wind prediction near the coastline are addressed with high-resolution meso-scale models. The grid-size-dependent convection parameterization is clearly beneficial for NWP models operating with a dense grid. Results show that the current convection scheme in HIRLAM is still applicable down to a 5.6 km grid size. However, with further improved model resolution, the tendency of the model to overestimate strong precipitation intensities increases in all the experiment runs. For the clear-sky longwave radiation parameterization, schemes used in NWP-models provide much better results in comparison with simple empirical schemes. On the other hand, for the shortwave part of the spectrum, the empirical schemes are more competitive for producing fairly accurate surface fluxes. Overall, even the complex radiation parameterization schemes used in NWP-models seem to be slightly too transparent for both long- and shortwave radiation in clear-sky conditions. For cloudy conditions, simple cloud correction functions are tested. In case of longwave radiation, the empirical cloud correction methods provide rather accurate results, whereas for shortwave radiation the benefit is only marginal. Idealised high-resolution two-dimensional meso-scale model experiments suggest that the reason for the observed formation of the afternoon low level jet (LLJ) over the Gulf of Finland is an inertial oscillation mechanism, when the large-scale flow is from the south-east or west directions. The LLJ is further enhanced by the sea-breeze circulation. A three-dimensional HIRLAM experiment, with a 7.7 km grid size, is able to generate a similar LLJ flow structure as suggested by the 2D-experiments and observations. It is also pointed out that improved model resolution does not necessary lead to better wind forecasts in the statistical sense. In nested systems, the quality of the large-scale host model is really important, especially if the inner meso-scale model domain is small.

Participation or further exclusion? : Contestations over forest conservation and control in the East Usambara Mountains, Tanzania

This Ph.D. thesis Participation or Further Exclusion? Contestations over Forest Conservation and Control in the East Usambara Mountains, Tanzania describes and analyses the shift in the prevailing discourse of forest and biodiversity conservation policies and strategies towards more participatory approaches in Tanzania, and the changes in the practises of resource control. I explore the scope for and limits to the different actors and groups who are considered to form the community, to participate in resource control, in a specific historical and socio-economic context. I analyse whether, how and to which extent the targets of such participatory conservation interventions have been able to affect the formal rules and practices of resource control, and explore their different responses and discursive and other strategies in relation to conservation efforts. I approach the problematic through exploring certain participatory conservation interventions and related negotiations between the local farmers, government officials and the external actors in the case of two protected forest reserves in the southern part of the East Usambaras, Tanzania. The study area belongs to the Eastern Arc Mountains that are valued globally and nationally for their high level of biodiversity and number of endemic and near endemic species. The theoretical approach draws from theorising on power, participation and conservation in anthropology of development and post-structuralist political ecology. The material was collected in three stages between 2003 and 2008 by using an ethnographic approach. I interviewed and observed the actors and their resource use and control practices at the local level, including the representatives of the villagers living close to the protected forests and the conservation agency, but also followed the selected processes and engaged with the non-local agencies involved in the conservation efforts in the East Usambaras. In addition, the more recent processes of change and the actors strategies in resource control were contextualised against the social and environmental history of the study area and the evolvement of institutions of natural resource control. My findings indicate that the discourse of participation that has emerged in global conservation policy debate within the past three decades, and is being institutionalised in the national policies in many countries, including Tanzania, has shaped the practices of forest conservation in the East Usambaras, although in a fragmented and uneven way. Instrumental interpretation of participation, in which it is to serve the goals of improving the control of the forest and making it more acceptable and efficient, has prevailed among the governmental actors and conservation organisations. Yet, there is variation between the different projects and actors promoting participatory conservation regarding the goals and means of participation, e.g. to which extent the local people are to be involved in decision-making. The actors representing communities also have their diverse agendas, understandings and experiences regarding the rationality, outcomes and benefits of being involved in forest control, making the practices of control fluid. The elements of the exclusive conservation thinking and practices co-exist with the more recent participatory processes, and continue to shape the understandings and strategies of the actors involved in resource control. The ideas and narratives of the different discourses are reproduced and selectively used by the parties involved. The idea of forest conservation is not resisted as such by most of the actors at local level, quite the opposite. However, the strict regulations and rules governing access to resources, such as valuable timber species, continue to be disputed by many. Furthermore, the history of control, such as past injustices related to conservation and unfulfilled promises, undermines the participation of certain social groups in resource control and benefit sharing. This also creates controversies in the practices of conservation, and fuels conflicts regarding the establishment of new protected areas. In spite of this, the fact that the representatives of the communities have been invited to the arenas where information is shared, and principles and conditions of forest control and benefit sharing are discussed and partly decided upon, has created expectations among the participants, and opened up opportunities for some of the local actors to enhance their own, and sometimes wider interests in relation to resource control and the related benefits. The local actors experiences of the previous government and other interventions strongly affect how they position themselves in relation to conservation interventions, and their responses and strategies. However, my findings also suggest, in a similar way to research conducted in some other protected areas, that the benefits of participation in conservation and resource control tend to accrue unevenly between different groups of local people, e.g. due to unequal access to information and differences in their initial resources and social position.