Metsän kiertoajan vaikutus hiilensidontaan ja metsänkasvatuksen kannattavuuteen

Cost-effective mitigation of climate change is essential for both climate and environmental policy. Forest rotation age is one of the silvicultural measures by which the forest carbon stocks can be influenced with in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol, Article 3.4. The purpose of this study is to evaluate how forest rotation age affects carbon sequestration and the profitability of forestry. The relation between the forest rotation period optimizing forest owners’ discounted net returns over time and rotations which are 10, 20 and 30 years longer than the optimal rotation is examined. In addition, the cost of lengthening the rotation period is studied as well as whether carbon sequestration revenues can improve the profitability of forestry. The data used in the study consist of 16 stands located in Southern Finland. The main tree species in these stands were Norway spruce and Scots pine. Forest simulation tool MOTTI was used in the analysis. The results indicate that by lengthening the rotation period forest carbon stocks increase. However, as the rotation period is lengthened by more than 10 years, as a result of the diminishing growth curve, the rate of carbon sequestration slows down. The average discounted cost of carbon sequestration varied between 2.4 – 14.1 €/tCO2. Carbon sequestration rates in spruce stands were higher and the costs lower than those obtained from pine stands. The absence of carbon trading schemes is an obstacle for the commercialization of forest carbon sinks. In the future, research should concentrate on analysing what kind of operational models of carbon trading could be feasible in Finland.

Suomen maatalouden tuottamat kasvihuonekaasujen päästöt eri politiikkaskenaarioissa

Climate change is the single biggest environmental problem in the world at the moment. Although the effects are still not fully understood and there is considerable amount of uncertainty, many na-tions have decided to mitigate the change. On the societal level, a planner who tries to find an eco-nomically optimal solution to an environmental pollution problem seeks to reduce pollution from the sources where reductions are most cost-effective. This study aims to find out how effective the instruments of the agricultural policy are in the case of climate change mitigation in Finland. The theoretical base of this study is the neoclassical economic theory that is based on the assumption of a rational economic agent who maximizes his own utility. This theoretical base has been widened towards the direction clearly essential to the matter: the theory of environmental eco-nomics. Deeply relevant to this problem and central in the theory of environmental economics are the concepts of externalities and public goods. What are also relevant are the problems of global pollution and non-point-source pollution. Econometric modelling was the method that was applied to this study. The Finnish part of the AGMEMOD-model, covering the whole EU, was used for the estimation of the development of pollution. This model is a seemingly recursive, partially dynamic partial-equilibrium model that was constructed to predict the development of Finnish agricultural production of the most important products. For the study, I personally updated the model and also widened its scope in some relevant matters. Also, I devised a table that can calculate the emissions of greenhouse gases according to the rules set by the IPCC. With the model I investigated five alternative scenarios in comparison to the base-line scenario of Agenda 2000 agricultural policy. The alternative scenarios were: 1) the CAP reform of 2003, 2) free trade on agricultural commodities, 3) technological change, 4) banning the cultivation of organic soils and 5) the combination of the last three scenarios as the maximal achievement in reduction. The maximal achievement in the alternative scenario 5 was 1/3 of the level achieved on the base-line scenario. CAP reform caused only a minor reduction when com-pared to the base-line scenario. Instead, the free trade scenario and the scenario of technological change alone caused a significant reduction. The biggest single reduction was achieved by banning the cultivation of organic land. However, this was also the most questionable scenario to be real-ized, the reasons for this are further elaborated in the paper. The maximal reduction that can be achieved in the Finnish agricultural sector is about 11 % of the emission reduction that is needed to comply with the Kyoto protocol.

Forest inventory-based large-scale forest biomass and carbon budget assessment: new enhanced methods and use of remote sensing for verification

In recent years, concern has arisen over the effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) in the earth's atmosphere due to the burning of fossil fuels. One way to mitigate increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change is carbon sequestration to forest vegeta-tion through photosynthesis. Comparable regional scale estimates for the carbon balance of forests are therefore needed for scientific and political purposes. The aim of the present dissertation was to improve methods for quantifying and verifying inventory-based carbon pool estimates of the boreal forests in the mineral soils. Ongoing forest inventories provide a data based on statistically sounded sampling for estimating the level of carbon stocks and stock changes, but improved modelling tools and comparison of methods are still needed. In this dissertation, the entire inventory-based large-scale forest carbon stock assessment method was presented together with some separate methods for enhancing and comparing it. The enhancement methods presented here include ways to quantify the biomass of understorey vegetation as well as to estimate the litter production of needles and branches. In addition, the optical remote sensing method illustrated in this dis-sertation can be used to compare with independent data. The forest inventory-based large-scale carbon stock assessment method demonstrated here provided reliable carbon estimates when compared with independent data. Future ac-tivity to improve the accuracy of this method could consist of reducing the uncertainties regarding belowground biomass and litter production as well as the soil compartment. The methods developed will serve the needs for UNFCCC reporting and the reporting under the Kyoto Protocol. This method is principally intended for analysts or planners interested in quantifying carbon over extensive forest areas.

Country-scale carbon accounting of the vegetation and mineral soils of Finland

The increase in global temperature has been attributed to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG), mainly that of CO2. The threat of severe and complex socio-economic and ecological implications of climate change have initiated an international process that aims to reduce emissions, to increase C sinks, and to protect existing C reservoirs. The famous Kyoto protocol is an offspring of this process. The Kyoto protocol and its accords state that signatory countries need to monitor their forest C pools, and to follow the guidelines set by the IPCC in the preparation, reporting and quality assessment of the C pool change estimates. The aims of this thesis were i) to estimate the changes in carbon stocks vegetation and soil in the forests in Finnish forests from 1922 to 2004, ii) to evaluate the applied methodology by using empirical data, iii) to assess the reliability of the estimates by means of uncertainty analysis, iv) to assess the effect of forest C sinks on the reliability of the entire national GHG inventory, and finally, v) to present an application of model-based stratification to a large-scale sampling design of soil C stock changes. The applied methodology builds on the forest inventory measured data (or modelled stand data), and uses statistical modelling to predict biomasses and litter productions, as well as a dynamic soil C model to predict the decomposition of litter. The mean vegetation C sink of Finnish forests from 1922 to 2004 was 3.3 Tg C a-1, and in soil was 0.7 Tg C a-1. Soil is slowly accumulating C as a consequence of increased growing stock and unsaturated soil C stocks in relation to current detritus input to soil that is higher than in the beginning of the period. Annual estimates of vegetation and soil C stock changes fluctuated considerably during the period, were frequently opposite (e.g. vegetation was a sink but soil was a source). The inclusion of vegetation sinks into the national GHG inventory of 2003 increased its uncertainty from between -4% and 9% to ± 19% (95% CI), and further inclusion of upland mineral soils increased it to ± 24%. The uncertainties of annual sinks can be reduced most efficiently by concentrating on the quality of the model input data. Despite the decreased precision of the national GHG inventory, the inclusion of uncertain sinks improves its accuracy due to the larger sectoral coverage of the inventory. If the national soil sink estimates were prepared by repeated soil sampling of model-stratified sample plots, the uncertainties would be accounted for in the stratum formation and sample allocation. Otherwise, the increases of sampling efficiency by stratification remain smaller. The highly variable and frequently opposite annual changes in ecosystem C pools imply the importance of full ecosystem C accounting. If forest C sink estimates will be used in practice average sink estimates seem a more reasonable basis than the annual estimates. This is due to the fact that annual forest sinks vary considerably and annual estimates are uncertain, and they have severe consequences for the reliability of the total national GHG balance. The estimation of average sinks should still be based on annual or even more frequent data due to the non-linear decomposition process that is influenced by the annual climate. The methodology used in this study to predict forest C sinks can be transferred to other countries with some modifications. The ultimate verification of sink estimates should be based on comparison to empirical data, in which case the model-based stratification presented in this study can serve to improve the efficiency of the sampling design.

Hypertension, kardiotoxicitet och njursvikt i samband med tyrosinkinashämmaren sunitinib

Nybildning av blodkärl från tidigare existerande kärl, angiogenes, är ett väsentligt skede vid tumörtillväxt. Denna process regleras av bland annat tillväxtfaktorer, var av den vaskulära endoteliala tillväxtfaktorn har en central roll. Hämning av angiogenes kan ske antingen extracellulärt med hjälp av humaniserade monoklonala antikroppar eller intracellulärt med hjälp av småmolekylära hämmaren. Sunitinib är en småmolekylär multikinashämmare och inhiberar flera tyrosinkinasreceptorer som påverkar tumörtillväxten och metastasutvecklingen vid cancer. Sunitinibs främsta indikationer är gastrointestinala stromacellstumörer, metastaserad njurcellscancer och neuroendokrina tumörer i bukspottskörteln. Behandling med tyrosinkinashämmare orsakar biverkningar som hypertension, kardiotoxicitet och njursvikt, vilka antas bero på de hämmande effekterna på mål som inte är väsentliga för anti-cancer-aktiviteten (”off-target” biverkningar). Bland annat AMP-aktiverat proteinkinas (AMPK), ett kinas som upprätthåller metabolisk homeostas i hjärtat, inhiberas av sunitinib och antas framkalla kardiovaskulära biverkningar. För att reducera ”off-target” biverkningar strävar man till att hitta alternativ som minskar de skadliga effekterna utan att den terapeutiska aktiviteten försvagas. Bland annat ett begränsat kaloriintag har uppvisat skyddande effekt på hjärtat via mekanismer sammankopplade till ökad resistens mot oxidativ stress, inflammation och mitokondriell dysfunktion, samt avtagande apoptos och autofagi. Detta sker delvis genom aktivering av enzymet Sirt1. Syftet med den här studien var att undersöka ifall kaloribegränsning skyddar mot kardiovaskulära och renala biverkningar inducerade av sunitinib hos råttor. Dessutom studerades vilka signalkedjor i cellen som medverkar. I studien användes 40 spontant hypertensiva råttor samt 10 normotensiva Wistar-Kyoto råttor. Försöksdjuren delades in i fem grupper beroende på behandling; I WKY kontroll, II SHR kontroll, III SHR + kaloribegränsning 70 %, IV SHR + sunitinib 3 mg/kg och V SHR + sunitinib 3 mg/kg + kaloribegränsning 70 %. Behandlingsperioden var åtta veckor. Blodtrycket mättes varje vecka med svansmanchett, urinutsöndringen undersöktes vecka 4 och vecka 8 med metabolismburar, ultraljudsundersökning av hjärtat utfördes sista veckan och blodkärlens respons till acetylkolin och natriumnitroprussid studerades i samband med avlivning. Proteinerna Sirt1 och AMPK analyserades i hjärtat med Western blotting samt förekomsten av makrofagmarkören ED1 i njurarna med immunhistokemi. Studien visade att sunitinibdosen 3 mg/kg är mycket väl tolererbar hos råttor eftersom sunitinib inte orsakade högre blodtryck, kraftigare hypertrofi eller mer omfattande njurskada jämfört med obehandlade SHR- grupper. Utgående från resultaten kan man också konstatera att kaloribegränsningen har positiva kardiovaskulära effekter.