Kalman Filter Algorithm for Rating and Prediction in Basketball

The Thesis presents a state-space model for a basketball league and a Kalman filter algorithm for the estimation of the state of the league. In the state-space model, each of the basketball teams is associated with a rating that represents its strength compared to the other teams. The ratings are assumed to evolve in time following a stochastic process with independent Gaussian increments. The estimation of the team ratings is based on the observed game scores that are assumed to depend linearly on the true strengths of the teams and independent Gaussian noise. The team ratings are estimated using a recursive Kalman filter algorithm that produces least squares optimal estimates for the team strengths and predictions for the scores of the future games. Additionally, if the Gaussianity assumption holds, the predictions given by the Kalman filter maximize the likelihood of the observed scores. The team ratings allow probabilistic inference about the ranking of the teams and their relative strengths as well as about the teams’ winning probabilities in future games. The predictions about the winners of the games are correct 65-70% of the time. The team ratings explain 16% of the random variation observed in the game scores. Furthermore, the winning probabilities given by the model are concurrent with the observed scores. The state-space model includes four independent parameters that involve the variances of noise terms and the home court advantage observed in the scores. The Thesis presents the estimation of these parameters using the maximum likelihood method as well as using other techniques. The Thesis also gives various example analyses related to the American professional basketball league, i.e., National Basketball Association (NBA), and regular seasons played in year 2005 through 2010. Additionally, the season 2009-2010 is discussed in full detail, including the playoffs.

Chemical Characterization of Urban Background Aerosol Using Online And Filter Methods

In order to evaluate the influence of ambient aerosol particles on cloud formation, climate and human health, detailed information about the concentration and composition of ambient aerosol particles is needed. The dura-tion of aerosol formation, growth and removal processes in the atmosphere range from minutes to hours, which highlights the need for high-time-resolution data in order to understand the underlying processes. This thesis focuses on characterization of ambient levels, size distributions and sources of water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC) in ambient aerosols. The results show that in the location of this study typically 50-60 % of organic carbon in fine particles is water-soluble. The amount of WSOC was observed to increase as aerosols age, likely due to further oxidation of organic compounds. In the boreal region the main sources of WSOC were biomass burning during the winter and secondary aerosol formation during the summer. WSOC was mainly attributed to a fine particle mode between 0.1 - 1 μm, although different size distributions were measured for different sources. The WSOC concentrations and size distributions had a clear seasonal variation. Another main focus of this thesis was to test and further develop the high-time-resolution methods for chemical characterization of ambient aerosol particles. The concentrations of the main chemical components (ions, OC, EC) of ambient aerosol particles were measured online during a year-long intensive measurement campaign conducted on the SMEAR III station in Southern Finland. The results were compared to the results of traditional filter collections in order to study sampling artifacts and limitations related to each method. To achieve better a time resolution for the WSOC and ion measurements, a particle-into-liquid sampler (PILS) was coupled with a total organic carbon analyzer (TOC) and two ion chromatographs (IC). The PILS-TOC-IC provided important data about diurnal variations and short-time plumes, which cannot be resolved from the filter samples. In summary, the measurements made for this thesis provide new information on the concentrations, size distribu-tions and sources of WSOC in ambient aerosol particles in the boreal region. The analytical and collection me-thods needed for the online characterization of aerosol chemical composition were further developed in order to provide more reliable high-time-resolution measurements.

Molecular basis of the kidney filtration barrier : Role of the nephrin protein complex

The kidney filtration barrier consists of fenestrated endothelial cell layer, glomerular basement membrane and slit diaphragm (SD), the specialized junction between glomerular viscelar epithelial cells (podocytes). Podocyte injury is associated with the development of proteinuria, and if not reversed the injury will lead to permanent deterioration of the glomerular filter. The early events are characterized by disruption of the integrity of the SD, but the molecular pathways involved are not fully understood. Congenital nephrotic syndrome of the Finnish type (CNF) is caused by mutations in NPHS1, the gene encoding the SD protein nephrin. Lack of nephrin results in loss of the SD and massive proteinuria beginning before birth. Furthermore, nephrin expression is decreased in acquired human kidney diseases including diabetic nephropathy. This highlights the importance of nephrin and consequently SD in regulating the kidney filtration function. However, the precise molecular mechanism of how nephrin is involved in the formation of the SD is unknown. This thesis work aimed at clarifying the role of nephrin and its interaction partners in the formation of the SD. The purpose was to identify novel proteins that associate with nephrin in order to define the essential molecular complex required for the establishment of the SD. The aim was also to decipher the role of novel nephrin interacting proteins in podocytes. Nephrin binds to nephrin-like proteins Neph1 and Neph2, and to adherens junction protein P-cadherin. These interactions have been suggested to play a role in the formation of the SD. In this thesis work, we identified densin as a novel interaction partner for nephrin. Densin was localized to the SD and it was shown to bind to adherens junction protein beta-catenin. Furthermore, densin was shown to behave in a similar fashion as adherens junction proteins in cell-cell contacts. These results indicate that densin may play a role in cell adhesion and, therefore, may contribute to the formation of the SD together with nephrin and adherens junction proteins. Nephrin was also shown to bind to Neph3, which has been previously localized to the SD. Neph3 and Neph1 were shown to induce cell adhesion alone, whereas nephrin needed to trans-interact with Neph1 or Neph3 from the opposite cell surface in order to make cell-cell contacts. This was associated with the decreased tyrosine phosphorylation of nephrin. These data extend the current knowledge of the molecular composition of the nephrin protein complex at the SD and also provide novel insights of how the SD may be formed. This thesis work also showed that densin was up-regulated in the podocytes of CNF patients. Neph3 was up-regulated in nephrin deficient mouse kidneys, which share similar podocyte alterations and lack of the SD as observed in CNF patients podocytes. These data suggest that densin and Neph3 may have a role in the formation of morphological alterations in podocytes detected in CNF patients. Furthermore, this thesis work showed that deletion of beta-catenin specifically from adult mouse podocytes protected the mice from the development of adriamycin-induced podocyte injury and proteinuria compared to wild-type mice. These results show that beta-catenin play a role in the adriamycin induced podocyte injury. Podocyte injury is a hallmark in many kidney diseases and the changes observed in the podocytes of CNF patient share characteristics with injured podocytes observed in chronic kidney diseases. Therefore, the results obtained in this thesis work suggest that densin, Neph3 and beta-catenin participate in the molecular pathways which result in morphological alterations commonly detected in injured podocytes in kidney diseases.

Chemical mass closure and source-specific composition of atmospheric particles

It has been known for decades that particles can cause adverse health effects as they are deposited within the respiratory system. Atmospheric aerosol particles influence climate by scattering solar radiation but aerosol particles act also as the nuclei around which cloud droplets form. The principal objectives of this thesis were to investigate the chemical composition and the sources of fine particles in different environments (traffic, urban background, remote) as well as during some specific air pollution situations. Quantifying the climate and health effects of atmospheric aerosols is not possible without detailed information of the aerosol chemical composition. Aerosol measurements were carried out at nine sites in six countries (Finland, Germany, Czech, Netherlands, Greece and Italy). Several different instruments were used in order to measure both the particulate matter (PM) mass and its chemical composition. In the off-line measurements the samples were collected first on a substrate or filter and gravimetric and chemical analysis were conducted in the laboratory. In the on-line measurements the sampling and analysis were either a combined procedure or performed successively within the same instrument. Results from the impactor samples were analyzed by the statistical methods. This thesis comprises also a work where a method for the determination carbonaceous matter size distribution by using a multistage impactor was developed. It was found that the chemistry of PM has usually strong spatial, temporal and size-dependent variability. In the Finnish sites most of the fine PM consisted of organic matter. However, in Greece sulfate dominated the fine PM and in Italy nitrate made the largest contribution to the fine PM. Regarding the size-dependent chemical composition, organic components were likely to be enriched in smaller particles than inorganic ions. Data analysis showed that organic carbon (OC) had four major sources in Helsinki. Secondary production was the major source in Helsinki during spring, summer and fall, whereas in winter biomass combustion dominated OC. The significant impact of biomass combustion on OC concentrations was also observed in the measurements performed in Central Europe. In this thesis aerosol samples were collected mainly by the conventional filter and impactor methods which suffered from the long integration time. However, by filter and impactor measurements chemical mass closure was achieved accurately, and a simple filter sampling was found to be useful in order to explain the sources of PM on the seasonal basis. The online instruments gave additional information related to the temporal variations of the sources and the atmospheric mixing conditions.

Atomic Layer Deposition for optical applications: metal fluoride thin films and novel devices

Thin films of various metal fluorides are suited for optical coatings from infrared (IR) to ultraviolet (UV) range due to their excellent light transmission. In this work, novel metal fluoride processes have been developed for atomic layer deposition (ALD), which is a gas phase thin film deposition method based on alternate saturative surface reactions. Surface controlled self-limiting film growth results in conformal and uniform films. Other strengths of ALD are precise film thickness control, repeatability and dense and pinhole free films. All these make the ALD technique an ideal choice also for depositing metal fluoride thin films. Metal fluoride ALD processes have been largely missing, which is mostly due to a lack of a good fluorine precursor. In this thesis, TiF4 precursor was used for the first time as the fluorine source in ALD for depositing CaF2, MgF2, LaF3 and YF3 thin films. TaF5 was studied as an alternative novel fluorine precursor only for MgF2 thin films. Metal-thd (thd = 2,2,6,6-tetramethyl-3,5-heptanedionato) compounds were applied as the metal precursors. The films were grown at 175 450 °C and they were characterized by various methods. The metal fluoride films grown at higher temperatures had generally lower impurity contents with higher UV light transmittances, but increased roughness caused more scattering losses. The highest transmittances and low refractive indices below 1.4 (at 580 nm) were obtained with MgF2 samples. MgF2 grown from TaF5 precursor showed even better UV light transmittance than MgF2 grown from TiF4. Thus, TaF5 can be considered as a high quality fluorine precursor for depositing metal fluoride thin films. Finally, MgF2 films were applied in fabrication of high reflecting mirrors together with Ta2O5 films for visible region and with LaF3 films for UV region. Another part of the thesis consists of applying already existing ALD processes for novel optical devices. In addition to the high reflecting mirrors, a thin ALD Al2O3 film on top of a silver coating was proven to protect the silver mirror coating from tarnishing. Iridium grid filter prototype for rejecting IR light and Ir-coated micro channel plates for focusing x-rays were successfully fabricated. Finally, Ir-coated Fresnel zone plates were shown to provide the best spatial resolution up to date in scanning x-ray microscopy.

Comprehensive Two-Dimensional Gas Chromatography: Instrumental and Methodological Development

Comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC×GC) offers enhanced separation efficiency, reliability in qualitative and quantitative analysis, capability to detect low quantities, and information on the whole sample and its components. These features are essential in the analysis of complex samples, in which the number of compounds may be large or the analytes of interest are present at trace level. This study involved the development of instrumentation, data analysis programs and methodologies for GC×GC and their application in studies on qualitative and quantitative aspects of GC×GC analysis. Environmental samples were used as model samples. Instrumental development comprised the construction of three versions of a semi-rotating cryogenic modulator in which modulation was based on two-step cryogenic trapping with continuously flowing carbon dioxide as coolant. Two-step trapping was achieved by rotating the nozzle spraying the carbon dioxide with a motor. The fastest rotation and highest modulation frequency were achieved with a permanent magnetic motor, and modulation was most accurate when the motor was controlled with a microcontroller containing a quartz crystal. Heated wire resistors were unnecessary for the desorption step when liquid carbon dioxide was used as coolant. With use of the modulators developed in this study, the narrowest peaks were 75 ms at base. Three data analysis programs were developed allowing basic, comparison and identification operations. Basic operations enabled the visualisation of two-dimensional plots and the determination of retention times, peak heights and volumes. The overlaying feature in the comparison program allowed easy comparison of 2D plots. An automated identification procedure based on mass spectra and retention parameters allowed the qualitative analysis of data obtained by GC×GC and time-of-flight mass spectrometry. In the methodological development, sample preparation (extraction and clean-up) and GC×GC methods were developed for the analysis of atmospheric aerosol and sediment samples. Dynamic sonication assisted extraction was well suited for atmospheric aerosols collected on a filter. A clean-up procedure utilising normal phase liquid chromatography with ultra violet detection worked well in the removal of aliphatic hydrocarbons from a sediment extract. GC×GC with flame ionisation detection or quadrupole mass spectrometry provided good reliability in the qualitative analysis of target analytes. However, GC×GC with time-of-flight mass spectrometry was needed in the analysis of unknowns. The automated identification procedure that was developed was efficient in the analysis of large data files, but manual search and analyst knowledge are invaluable as well. Quantitative analysis was examined in terms of calibration procedures and the effect of matrix compounds on GC×GC separation. In addition to calibration in GC×GC with summed peak areas or peak volumes, simplified area calibration based on normal GC signal can be used to quantify compounds in samples analysed by GC×GC so long as certain qualitative and quantitative prerequisites are met. In a study of the effect of matrix compounds on GC×GC separation, it was shown that quality of the separation of PAHs is not significantly disturbed by the amount of matrix and quantitativeness suffers only slightly in the presence of matrix and when the amount of target compounds is low. The benefits of GC×GC in the analysis of complex samples easily overcome some minor drawbacks of the technique. The developed instrumentation and methodologies performed well for environmental samples, but they could also be applied for other complex samples.

Stochastic Filtering

The stochastic filtering has been in general an estimation of indirectly observed states given observed data. This means that one is discussing conditional expected values as being one of the most accurate estimation, given the observations in the context of probability space. In my thesis, I have presented the theory of filtering using two different kind of observation process: the first one is a diffusion process which is discussed in the first chapter, while the third chapter introduces the latter which is a counting process. The majority of the fundamental results of the stochastic filtering is stated in form of interesting equations, such the unnormalized Zakai equation that leads to the Kushner-Stratonovich equation. The latter one which is known also by the normalized Zakai equation or equally by Fujisaki-Kallianpur-Kunita (FKK) equation, shows the divergence between the estimate using a diffusion process and a counting process. I have also introduced an example for the linear gaussian case, which is mainly the concept to build the so-called Kalman-Bucy filter. As the unnormalized and the normalized Zakai equations are in terms of the conditional distribution, a density of these distributions will be developed through these equations and stated by Kushner Theorem. However, Kushner Theorem has a form of a stochastic partial differential equation that needs to be verify in the sense of the existence and uniqueness of its solution, which is covered in the second chapter.

Efficient Content-based Routing, Mobility-aware Topologies, and Temporal Subspace Matching

Event-based systems are seen as good candidates for supporting distributed applications in dynamic and ubiquitous environments because they support decoupled and asynchronous many-to-many information dissemination. Event systems are widely used, because asynchronous messaging provides a flexible alternative to RPC (Remote Procedure Call). They are typically implemented using an overlay network of routers. A content-based router forwards event messages based on filters that are installed by subscribers and other routers. The filters are organized into a routing table in order to forward incoming events to proper subscribers and neighbouring routers. This thesis addresses the optimization of content-based routing tables organized using the covering relation and presents novel data structures and configurations for improving local and distributed operation. Data structures are needed for organizing filters into a routing table that supports efficient matching and runtime operation. We present novel results on dynamic filter merging and the integration of filter merging with content-based routing tables. In addition, the thesis examines the cost of client mobility using different protocols and routing topologies. We also present a new matching technique called temporal subspace matching. The technique combines two new features. The first feature, temporal operation, supports notifications, or content profiles, that persist in time. The second feature, subspace matching, allows more expressive semantics, because notifications may contain intervals and be defined as subspaces of the content space. We also present an application of temporal subspace matching pertaining to metadata-based continuous collection and object tracking.