Impact of agricultural market liberalization on food security in developing countries : a comparative study of Kenya and Zambia

This research investigates the impacts of agricultural market liberalization on food security in developing countries and it evaluates the supply perspective of food security. This research theme is applied on the agricultural sector in Kenya and in Zambia by studying the role policies played in the maize sub-sector. An evaluation of selected policies introduced at the beginning of the 1980s is made, as well as an assessment of whether those policies influenced maize output. A theoretical model of agricultural production is then formulated to reflect cereal production in a developing country setting. This study begins with a review of the general framework and the aims of the structural adjustment programs and proceeds to their application in the maize sector in Kenya and Zambia. A literature review of the supply and demand synthesis of food security is presented with examples from various developing countries. Contrary to previous studies on food security, this study assesses two countries with divergent economic orientations. Agricultural sector response to economic and institutional policies in different settings is also evaluated. Finally, a dynamic time series econometric model is applied to assess the effects of policy on maize output. The empirical findings suggest a weak policy influence on maize output, but the precipitation and acreage variables stand out as core determinants of maize output. The policy dimension of acreage and how markets influence it is not discussed at length in this study. Due to weak land rights and tenure structures in these countries, the direct impact of policy change on land markets cannot be precisely measured. Recurring government intervention during the structural policy implementation period impeded efficient functioning of input and output markets, particularly in Zambia. Input and output prices of maize and fertilizer responded more strongly in Kenya than in Zambia, where the state often ceded to public pressure by revoking pertinent policy measures. These policy interpretations are based on the response of policy variables which are more responsive in Kenya than in Zambia. According the obtained regression results, agricultural markets in general, and the maize sub-sector in particular, responded more positively to implemented policies in Kenya, than in Zambia, which supported a more socialist economic system. It is observed in these results that in order for policies to be effective, sector and regional dimensions need to be considered. The regional and sector dimensions were not taken into account in the formulation and implementation of structural adjustment policies in the 1980s. It can be noted that countries with vibrant economic structures and institutions fared better than those which had a firm, socially founded system.

Agricultural expansion and climate change in the Taita Hills, Kenya: an assessment of potential environmental impacts

The indigenous cloud forests in the Taita Hills have suffered substantial degradation for several centuries due to agricultural expansion. Currently, only 1% of the original forested area remains preserved in this region. Furthermore, climate change imposes an imminent threat for local economy and environmental sustainability. In such circumstances, elaborating tools to conciliate socioeconomic growth and natural resources conservation is an enormous challenge. This dissertation tackles essential aspects for understanding the ongoing agricultural activities in the Taita Hills and their potential environmental consequences in the future. Initially, alternative methods were designed to improve our understanding of the ongoing agricultural activities. Namely, methods for agricultural survey planning and to estimate evapotranspiration were evaluated, taking into account a number of limitations regarding data and resources availability. Next, this dissertation evaluates how upcoming agricultural expansion, together with climate change, will affect the natural resources in the Taita Hills up to the year 2030. The driving forces of agricultural expansion in the region were identified as aiming to delineate future landscape scenarios and evaluate potential impacts from the soil and water conservation point of view. In order to investigate these issues and answer the research questions, this dissertation combined state of the art modelling tools with renowned statistical methods. The results indicate that, if current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. Although the simulated land use changes will certainly increase soil erosion figures, new croplands are likely to come up predominantly in the lowlands, which comprise areas with lower soil erosion potential. By 2030, rainfall erosivity is likely to increase during April and November due to climate change. Finally, this thesis addressed the potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate changes on Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR), which is considered another major issue in the context of the relations between land use and climate. Although the simulations indicate that climate change will likely increase annual volumes of rainfall during the following decades, IWR will continue to increase due to agricultural expansion. By 2030, new cropland areas may cause an increase of approximately 40% in the annual volume of water necessary for irrigation.

Export of organic matter, sulphate and base cations from boreal headwater catchments downstream to the coast: impacts of land use and climate

The terrestrial export of dissolved organic matter (DOM) is associated with climate, vegetation and land use, and thus is under the influence of climatic variability and human interference with terrestrial ecosystems, their soils and hydrological cycles. The present study provides an assessment of spatial variation of DOM concentrations and export, and interactions between DOM, catchment characteristics, land use and climatic factors in boreal catchments. The influence of catchment characteristics, land use and climatic drivers on the concentrations and export of total organic carbon (TOC), total organic nitrogen (TON) and dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) was estimated using stream water quality, forest inventory and climatic data from 42 Finnish pristine forested headwater catchments, and water quality monitoring, GIS land use, forest inventory and climatic data from the 36 main Finnish rivers (and their sub-catchments) flowing to the Baltic Sea. Moreover, the export of DOM in relation to land use along a European climatic gradient was studied using river water quality and land use data from four European areas. Additionally, the role of organic and minerogenic acidity in controlling pH levels in Finnish rivers and pristine streams was studied by measuring organic anion, sulphate (SO4) and base cation (Ca, Mg, K and Na) concentrations. In all study catchments, TOC was a major fraction of DOM, with much lower proportions of TON and DOP. Moreover, most of TOC and TON was in a dissolved form. The correlation between TOC and TON concentrations was strong and TOC concentrations explained 78% of the variation in TON concentrations in pristine headwater streams. In a subgroup of 20 headwater catchments with similar climatic conditions and low N deposition in eastern Finland, the proportion of peatlands in the catchment and the proportion of Norway spruce (Picea abies Karsten) of the tree stand had the strongest correlation with the TOC and TON concentrations and export. In Finnish river basins, TOC export increased with the increasing proportion of peatland in the catchment, whereas TON export increased with increasing extent of agricultural land. The highest DOP concentrations and export were recorded in river basins with a high extent of agricultural land and urban areas, reflecting the influence of human impact on DOP loads. However, the most important predictor for TOC, TON and DOP export in Finnish rivers was the proportion of upstream lakes in the catchment. The higher the upstream lake percentage, the lower the export indicating organic matter retention in lakes. Molar TOC:TON ratio decreased from headwater catchments covered by forests and peatlands to the large river basins with mixed land use, emphasising the effect of the land use gradient on the stoichiometry of rivers. This study also demonstrated that the land use of the catchments is related to both organic and minerogenic acidity in rivers and pristine headwater streams. Organic anion dominated in rivers and streams situated in northern Finland, reflecting the higher extent of peatlands in these areas, whereas SO4 dominated in southern Finland and on western coastal areas, where the extent of fertile areas, agricultural land, urban areas, acid sulphate soils, and sulphate deposition is highest. High TOC concentrations decreased pH values in the stream and river water, whereas no correlation between SO4 concentrations and pH was observed. This underlines the importance of organic acids in controlling pH levels in Finnish pristine headwater streams and main rivers. High SO4 concentrations were associated with high base cation concentrations and fertile areas, which buffered the effects of SO4 on pH.

Impacts of agriculture on amphibians at multiple scales

Agriculture-mediated habitat loss and degradation together with climate change are among the greatest global threats to species, communities, and ecosystem functioning. During the last century, more than 50% of the world's wetlands have been lost and agricultural activities have subjected wetland species to increased isolation and decreased quality of habitats. Likewise, as a part of agricultural intensification, the use of pesticides has increased notably, and pesticide residues occur frequently in wetlands making the exposure of wetland organisms to pesticides highly probable. In this thesis, a set of ecotoxicological and landscape ecological studies were carried out to investigate pesticide-effects on tadpoles, and species-habitat relationships of amphibians in agricultural landscapes. The results show that the fitness of R. temporaria tadpoles can be negatively affected by sublethal pesticide concentrations, and that pesticides may increase the costs of response to natural environmental stressors. However, tadpoles may also be able to compensate for some of the negative effects of pesticides. The results further demonstrate that both historic and current-day agricultural land use can negatively impact amphibians, but that in some cases the costs of living in agricultural habitats may only become apparent when amphibians face other environmental stressors, such as drought. Habitat heterogeneity may, however, increase the persistence of amphibians in agricultural landscapes. Hence, the results suggest that amphibians are likely to be affected by agricultural processes that operate at several spatial and temporal scales, and that it is probable that various processes related to current-day agriculture will affect both larval and adult amphibians. The results imply that maintaining dense wetland patterns could enhance persistence of amphibian populations in agricultural habitats, and indicate that heterogeneous landscapes may lower the risk of regional amphibian population declines under extreme weather perturbations.

Ecological impacts of Phlebiopsis gigantea biocontrol treatment against Heterobasidion spp. as revealed by fungal community profiling and population analyses

Wood decay fungi belonging to the species complex Heterobasidion annosum sensu lato are among the most common and economically important species causing root rot and stem decay in conifers of the northern temperate regions. New infections by these pathogens can be suppressed by tree stump treatments using chemical or biological control agents. In Finland, the corticiaceous fungus Phlebiopsis gigantea has been formulated into a commercial biocontrol agent called Rotstop (Verdera Ltd.). This thesis addresses the ecological impacts of Rotstop biocontrol treatment on the mycoflora of conifer stumps. Locally, fungal communities within Rotstop-treated and untreated stumps were analyzed using a novel method based on DGGE profiling of small subunit ribosomal DNA fragments amplified directly from wood samples. Population analyses for P. gigantea and H. annosum s.l. were conducted to evaluate possible risks associated with local and/or global distribution of the Rotstop strain. Based on molecular community profiling by DGGE, we detected a few individual wood-inhabiting fungal species (OTUs) that seemed to have suffered or benefited from the Rotstop biocontrol treatment. The DGGE analyses also revealed fungal diversity not retrieved by cultivation and some fungal sequence types untypical for decomposing conifer wood. However, statistical analysis of DGGE community profiles obtained from Rotstop-treated and untreated conifer stumps revealed that the Rotstop treatment had not caused a statistically significant reduction in the species diversity of wood-inhabiting fungi within our experimental forest plots. Locally, ISSR genotyping of cultured P. gigantea strains showed that the Rotstop biocontrol strain was capable of surviving up to six years within treated Norway spruce stumps, while in Scots pine stumps it was sooner replaced by successor fungal species. In addition, the spread of resident P. gigantea strains into Rotstop-treated forest stands seemed effective in preventing the formation of genetically monomorphic populations in the short run. On a global scale, we detected a considerable level of genetic differentiation between the interfertile European and North American populations of P. gigantea. These results strongly suggest that local biocontrol strains should be used in order to prevent global spread of P. gigantea and hybrid formation between geographically isolated populations. The population analysis for H. annosum s.l. revealed a collection of Chinese fungal strains that showed a high degree of laboratory fertility with three different allopatric H. annosum s.l. taxa. However, based on the molecular markers, the Chinese strains could be clearly affiliated with the H. parviporum taxonomical cluster, which thus appears to have a continuous distribution range from Europe through southern Siberia to northern China. Keywords: Rotstop, wood decay, DGGE, ISSR fingerprinting, ribosomal DNA

Assessment and mitigation of agricultural water pollution

Yhteenveto: Maatalouden aiheuttama vesistönkuormitus ja sen vähentäminen

Evaluating the regional and distributional impacts of forestry cost-share payments.

XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.

Lean Thinking in Software Development : Impacts of Kanban on Projects

The history of software development in a somewhat systematical way has been performed for half a century. Despite this time period, serious failures in software development projects still occur. The pertinent mission of software project management is to continuously achieve more and more successful projects. The application of agile software methods and more recently the integration of Lean practices contribute to this trend of continuous improvement in the software industry. One such area warranting proper empirical evidence is the operational efficiency of projects. In the field of software development, Kanban as a process management method has gained momentum recently, mostly due to its linkages to Lean thinking. However, only a few empirical studies investigate the impacts of Kanban on projects in that particular area. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to improve the understanding of how Kanban impacts on software projects. The research is carried out in the area of Lean thinking, which contains a variety of concepts including Kanban. This article-type thesis conducts a set of case studies expanded with the research strategy of quasi-controlled experiment. The data-gathering techniques of interviews, questionnaires, and different types of observations are used to study the case projects, and thereby to understand the impacts of Kanban on software development projects. The research papers of the thesis are refereed, international journal and conference publications. The results highlight new findings regarding the application of Kanban in the software context. The key findings of the thesis suggest that Kanban is applicable to software development. Despite its several benefits reported in this thesis, the empirical evidence implies that Kanban is not all-encompassing but requires additional practices to keep development projects performing appropriately. Implications for research are given, as well. In addition to these findings, the thesis contributes in the area of plan-driven software development by suggesting implications both for research and practitioners. As a conclusion, Kanban can benefit software development projects but additional practices would increase its potential for the projects.

Integrated climatic impacts of forestry and fibre-based packaging

The purpose of this study was to examine the integrated climatic impacts of forestry and the use fibre-based packaging materials. The responsible use of forest resources plays an integral role in mitigating climate change. Forests offer three generic mitigation strategies; conservation, sequestration and substitution. By conserving carbon reservoirs, increasing the carbon sequestration in the forest or substituting fossil fuel intensive materials and energy, it is possible to lower the amount of carbon in the atmosphere through the use of forest resources. The Finnish forest industry consumed some 78 million m3 of wood in 2009, while total of 2.4 million tons of different packaging materials were consumed that same year in Finland. Nearly half of the domestically consumed packaging materials were wood-based. Globally the world packaging material market is valued worth annually some €400 billion, of which the fibre-based packaging materials account for 40 %. The methodology and the theoretical framework of this study are based on a stand-level, steady-state analysis of forestry and wood yields. The forest stand data used for this study were obtained from Metla, and consisted of 14 forest stands located in Southern and Central Finland. The forest growth and wood yields were first optimized with the help of Stand Management Assistant software, and then simulated in Motti for forest carbon pools. The basic idea was to examine the climatic impacts of fibre-based packaging material production and consumption through different forest management and end-use scenarios. Economically optimal forest management practices were chosen as the baseline (1) for the study. In the alternative scenarios, the amount of fibre-based packaging material on the market decreased from the baseline. The reduced pulpwood demand (RPD) scenario (2) follows economically optimal management practices under reduced pulpwood price conditions, while the sawlog scenario (3) also changed the product mix from packaging to sawnwood products. The energy scenario (4) examines the impacts of pulpwood demand shift from packaging to energy use. The final scenario follows the silvicultural guidelines developed by the Forestry Development Centre Tapio (5). The baseline forest and forest product carbon pools and the avoided emissions from wood use were compared to those under alternative forest management regimes and end-use scenarios. The comparison of the climatic impacts between scenarios gave an insight into the sustainability of fibre-based packaging materials, and the impacts of decreased material supply and substitution. The results show that the use of wood for fibre-based packaging purposes is favorable, when considering climate change mitigation aspects of forestry and wood use. Fibre-based packaging materials efficiently displace fossil carbon emissions by substituting more energy intensive materials, and they delay biogenic carbon re-emissions to the atmosphere for several months up to years. The RPD and the sawlog scenarios both fared well in the scenario comparison. These scenarios produced relatively more sawnwood, which can displace high amounts of emissions and has high carbon storing potential due to the long lifecycle. The results indicate the possibility that win-win scenarios exist by shifting production from pulpwood to sawlogs; on some of the stands in the RPD and sawlog scenarios, both carbon pools and avoided emissions increased from the baseline simultaneously. On the opposite, the shift from packaging material to energy use caused the carbon pools and the avoided emissions to diminish from the baseline. Hence the use of virgin fibres for energy purposes, rather than forest industry feedstock biomass, should be critically judged if optional to each other. Managing the stands according to the silvicultural guidelines developed by the Forestry Development Centre Tapio provided the least climatic benefits, showing considerably lower carbon pools and avoided emissions. This seems interesting and worth noting, as the guidelines are the current basis for the forest management practices in Finland.