Analyzing changes in macro-level drivers of country-specific emissions : The role of consumption, technology and trade

Industrial ecology is an important field of sustainability science. It can be applied to study environmental problems in a policy relevant manner. Industrial ecology uses ecosystem analogy; it aims at closing the loop of materials and substances and at the same time reducing resource consumption and environmental emissions. Emissions from human activities are related to human interference in material cycles. Carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are essential elements for all living organisms, but in excess have negative environmental impacts, such as climate change (CO2, CH4 N2O), acidification (NOx) and eutrophication (N, P). Several indirect macro-level drivers affect emissions change. Population and affluence (GDP/capita) often act as upward drivers for emissions. Technology, as emissions per service used, and consumption, as economic intensity of use, may act as drivers resulting in a reduction in emissions. In addition, the development of country-specific emissions is affected by international trade. The aim of this study was to analyse changes in emissions as affected by macro-level drivers in different European case studies. ImPACT decomposition analysis (IPAT identity) was applied as a method in papers I III. The macro-level perspective was applied to evaluate CO2 emission reduction targets (paper II) and the sharing of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (paper IV) in the European Union (EU27) up to the year 2020. Data for the study were mainly gathered from official statistics. In all cases, the results were discussed from an environmental policy perspective. The development of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions was analysed in the Finnish energy sector during a long time period, 1950 2003 (paper I). Finnish emissions of NOx began to decrease in the 1980s as the progress in technology in terms of NOx/energy curbed the impact of the growth in affluence and population. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions related to energy use during 1993 2004 (paper II) were analysed by country and region within the European Union. Considering energy-based CO2 emissions in the European Union, dematerialization and decarbonisation did occur, but not sufficiently to offset population growth and the rapidly increasing affluence during 1993 2004. The development of nitrogen and phosphorus load from aquaculture in relation to salmonid consumption in Finland during 1980 2007 was examined, including international trade in the analysis (paper III). A regional environmental issue, eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, and a marginal, yet locally important source of nutrients was used as a case. Nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture decreased from the 1990s onwards: although population, affluence and salmonid consumption steadily increased, aquaculture technology improved and the relative share of imported salmonids increased. According to the sustainability challenge in industrial ecology, the environmental impact of the growing population size and affluence should be compensated by improvements in technology (emissions/service used) and with dematerialisation. In the studied cases, the emission intensity of energy production could be lowered for NOx by cleaning the exhaust gases. Reorganization of the structure of energy production as well as technological innovations will be essential in lowering the emissions of both CO2 and NOx. Regarding the intensity of energy use, making the combustion of fuels more efficient and reducing energy use are essential. In reducing nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture to the Baltic Sea (paper III) through technology, limits of biological and physical properties of cultured fish, among others, will eventually be faced. Regarding consumption, salmonids are preferred to many other protein sources. Regarding trade, increasing the proportion of imports will outsource the impacts. Besides improving technology and dematerialization, other viewpoints may also be needed. Reducing the total amount of nutrients cycling in energy systems and eventually contributing to NOx emissions needs to be emphasized. Considering aquaculture emissions, nutrient cycles can be partly closed through using local fish as feed replacing imported feed. In particular, the reduction of CO2 emissions in the future is a very challenging task when considering the necessary rates of dematerialisation and decarbonisation (paper II). Climate change mitigation may have to focus on other greenhouse gases than CO2 and on the potential role of biomass as a carbon sink, among others. The global population is growing and scaling up the environmental impact. Population issues and growing affluence must be considered when discussing emission reductions. Climate policy has only very recently had an influence on emissions, and strong actions are now called for climate change mitigation. Environmental policies in general must cover all the regions related to production and impacts in order to avoid outsourcing of emissions and leakage effects. The macro-level drivers affecting changes in emissions can be identified with the ImPACT framework. Statistics for generally known macro-indicators are currently relatively well available for different countries, and the method is transparent. In the papers included in this study, a similar method was successfully applied in different types of case studies. Using transparent macro-level figures and a simple top-down approach are also appropriate in evaluating and setting international emission reduction targets, as demonstrated in papers II and IV. The projected rates of population and affluence growth are especially worth consideration in setting targets. However, sensitivities in calculations must be carefully acknowledged. In the basic form of the ImPACT model, the economic intensity of consumption and emission intensity of use are included. In seeking to examine consumption but also international trade in more detail, imports were included in paper III. This example demonstrates well how outsourcing of production influences domestic emissions. Country-specific production-based emissions have often been used in similar decomposition analyses. Nevertheless, trade-related issues must not be ignored.

Drug cultures in Estonia : contexts, meanings and patterns of illicit drug use.

In Estonia, illicit drug use hardly existed before the social changes of the 1990s when, as a result of economic and cultural transformations, the country became part of a world order centred in the West. On the one hand, this development is due to the spread of international youth culture, which many young people have perceived as being associated with drugs; on the other hand, it results from the marginalisation of a part of the population. The empirical part of the study is based mostly on in-depth interviews with different drug users conducted during between 1998 and 2002. Complementary material includes the results of participant observations, interviews with key experts, and the results of previous quantitative studies and statistics. The young people who started experimenting with illicit drugs from the 1990s and onwards perceived them as a part of an attractive lifestyle - a Western lifestyle, a point which is worth stressing in the case of Estonia. Although the reasons for initiation into drug use were similar for the majority of young people, their drug use habits and the impact of the drug use on their lives began to differ. I argue that the potential pleasure and harm which might accompany drug use is offset by the meanings attached to drugs and the sanctions and rituals regulating drug use. In the study both recreational and problem use have been analysed from different aspects in seven articles. I have investigated different types of drug users: new bohemians, cannabis users, in whose case partying and restrictive drug use is positively connected to their lives and goals within established society; stimulant-using party people for whom drugs are a means of having fun but who do not have the same restrictive norms regulating their drug use as the former and who may get into trouble under certain conditions; and heroin users for whom the drug rapidly progressed from a means of having fun to an obligation due to addiction. The research results point at the importance not only of the drug itself and the socio-economic situation of the user, but also of the cultural and social context within which the drug is used. The latter may on occasions be a crucial factor in whether or not initial drug use eventually leads to addiction.

Trade Liberalization, Heterogeneous Firms and Industrial Dynamics

This master thesis studies how trade liberalization affects the firm-level productivity and industrial evolution. To do so, I built a dynamic model that considers firm-level productivity as endogenous to investigate the influence of trade on firm’s productivity and the market structure. In the framework, heterogeneous firms in the same industry operate differently in equilibrium. Specifically, firms are ex ante identical but heterogeneity arises as an equilibrium outcome. Under the setting of monopolistic competition, this type of model yields an industry that is represented not by a steady-state outcome, but by an evolution that rely on the decisions made by individual firms. I prove that trade liberalization has a general positive impact on technological adoption rates and hence increases the firm-level productivity. Besides, this endogenous technology adoption model also captures the stylized facts: exporting firms are larger and more productive than their non-exporting counterparts in the same sector. I assume that the number of firms is endogenous, since, according to the empirical literature, the industrial evolution shows considerably different patterns across countries; some industries experience large scale of firms’ exit in the period of contracting market shares, while some industries display relative stable number of firms or gradually increase quantities. The special word “shakeout” is used to describe the dramatic decrease in the number of firms. In order to explain the causes of shakeout, I construct a model where forward-looking firms decide to enter and exit the market on the basis of their state of technology. In equilibrium, firms choose different dates to adopt innovation which generate a gradual diffusion process. It is exactly this gradual diffusion process that generates the rapid, large-scale exit phenomenon. Specifically, it demonstrates that there is a positive feedback between firm’s exit and adoption, the reduction in the number of firms increases the incentives for remaining firms to adopt innovation. Therefore, in the setting of complete information, this model not only generates a shakeout but also captures the stability of an industry. However, the solely national view of industrial evolution neglects the importance of international trade in determining the shape of market structure. In particular, I show that the higher trade barriers lead to more fragile markets, encouraging the over-entry in the initial stage of industry life cycle and raising the probability of a shakeout. Therefore, more liberalized trade generates more stable market structure from both national and international viewpoints. The main references are Ederington and McCalman(2008,2009).

International Portfolio Investments and The Informational Value of Trade

A large volume of literature suggests that information asymmetry resulting from the spatial separation between investors and investments have a significant impact on the composition of investors’ domestic and international portfolios. I show that institutional factors affecting trading in tangible goods help explain a substantial portion of investors’ spatial bias. More importantly, I demonstrate that an information flow medium with breadth and richness directly linked to the bilateral commitment of resources between countries, that I measure by their trading intensity in tangible goods, is consistent with the prevailing country allocation in investors’ international portfolios.

Treatment of illicit opioid and γ-hydroxybutyrate overdose by Helsinki emergency medical services

Aims: To examine the characteristics, incidence, treatment and outcome of presumed opioid, γ-hydroxybutyrate (GHB) and γ-butyrolactone (GBL) overdoses involving users of illicit drugs in Helsinki. GHB/GBL were included in this study, despite not being opioids, due to the relative ease with which they can cause potentially fatal respiratory depression. The incidence and time interval of recurrent opioid toxicity after prehospital administration of naloxone, an opioid antagonist, was studied in presumed heroin overdose patients. Naloxone has been reported to have many adverse effects and the effects of naloxone administered during an opioid overdose on the cardiovascular system and catecholamine levels in piglets were studied. Materials and methods: Patients included in these published retrospective studies were from the following time periods: Study I: 1995-2002, II: 1997-2000, III: 1995-2000, V: 2006-2007. Presumed opioid overdose patients were examined in studies I, II and III. GHB/GBL overdoses among injecting drug users was examined in study V. Recurrent opioid toxicity after prehospital naloxone administration in heroin overdose patients was examined in study III. The effects of naloxone (80 μg/kg i.v.) on the cardiovascular system and catecholamine levels administered during morphine overdose (8mg/kg i.v.) and under propofol anesthesia with spontaneous breathing were studied in eight piglets (IV). In this thesis, previously unpublished data on the incidence of opioid overdose between 2001-2007 and comparison of the characteristics of buprenorphine and heroin overdose patients encountered in 1995-2005 are also included. Results: Helsinki Emergency Medical Service (EMS) ambulances were dispatched annually to 34,153- 45,118 calls from 1995 to 2007. Of them, 7-8% were coded as intoxications or overdoses. During this time, 436 patients were treated by the EMS for presumed opioid overdose. The peak incidence of opioid overdoses was in the year 2000 (113 cases), after which they declined to 6-26 cases annually. The annual incidence of buprenorphine related overdoses increased from 4 (4% of opioid overdoses) in the year 2000 to 8 (30% of opioid overdoses) in 2007. The annual number of GHB related overdose patients treated by Helsinki EMS increased from 21 to 73 between 2004-2007. There appeared to be a peak in the incidence of both GHB/GBL and opioid related overdoses on Saturdays. Characteristics of opioid overdose patients The median age of opioid overdose patients was 28 years (22;33, 25- and 75-percentiles), and 84% were male. Buprenorphine overdose patients had more polydrug, such as alcohol and/or benzodiazepines, use in comparison with heroin overdose patients, 70% versus 33%, respectively. Severe respiratory depression was reported less often with buprenorphine overdoses compared to heroin overdoses, in 67.0% versus 85.4%, respectively. Outcome of heroin overdose patients with cardiac arrest Ninety four patients suffered cardiac arrest due to acute drug poisoning/overdose and were thus considered for resuscitation. Resuscitation was attempted in 72 cases. Cardiac arrest was caused by heroin overdose for 19 patients of which three (16%) were discharged alive. Other agents also induced cardiac arrest in 53 patients, of which six (11%) were discharged alive. The arrest was either EMS witnessed or occurring after the emergency call for all survivors of heroin induced cardiac arrest. Characteristics of GHB/GBL overdose patients The records of 100 GHB/GBL related overdose patients from 2006-2007 were retrieved. The median age of GHB/GBL overdose patients encountered on weekend nights was 24 years (22;27, 25- and 75-percentiles) and 49% were male. Polydrug use was reported in 62-80% of the cases. Thirty nine patients were encountered on Friday-Saturday or Saturday-Sunday night between 11 pm-6 am. The remaining sixty one patients were outside this time frame. There was a statistically significant difference between these two groups in history of chronic injecting drug use (33% vs. 59%, respectively, p=0.012). Recurrent heroin toxicity after prehospital naloxone administration Study III included 145 presumed heroin overdose patients. After prehospital care, 84 patients refused further care and were not transported to an Emergency Department (ED). Seventy one (85%) of them were administered naloxone by the EMS. During a 12-h follow up period, none of these patients developed severe recurrent opioid toxicity. The remaining 61 patients were transported to an ED. Prior to transportation, 52 (85%) patients were administered naloxone by the EMS. Fifteen of them were administered naloxone also in the ED and recurrent opioid toxicity was evident either on arrival at the ED or shortly thereafter. Prehospital naloxone was administered either intravenously, intramuscularly (i.m.) or subcutaneously (s.c.). There was a tendency for more frequent recurrent heroin toxicity among the patients with only intravenous administration of prehospital naloxone (13/36) compared with the patients with intramuscular or subcutaneous prehospital naloxone (2/16), p=0.106. The effects of naloxone on the cardiovascular system and catecholamine levels in piglets The administration of morphine to piglets resulted in an obvious respiratory depression, which was reversed by naloxone. Two severely hypoxemic piglets developed cardiac arrest after naloxone administration. In the other six animals, the administration of naloxone did not provoke arrhythmias, cardiac ischemia or visible evidence of pulmonary edema. There was a statistically significant (p=0.012) increase in norepinephrine levels after morphine administration and before naloxone administration: from 1.9 (1.3-2.3) ng/ml at baseline, to 31.7 (8.3-83.0) ng/ml (median, 25 and 75 percentiles parentheses) after morphine administration. After the administration of naloxone, the catecholamine levels continued to increase in only one of the animals. Conclusions: The incidence of buprenorphine related overdoses increased during the study period, but was still lower in comparison to those involving heroin. Injecting drug users have also started to use GHB/GBL. While recreational drug users use GHB/GBL during weekend nights, a GHB/GBL overdose patient encounter during weekdays has a more probable history of injecting drug use. Patients with cardiac arrest after heroin overdose have a poor prognosis. It appears to be safe to leave heroin overdose patients on scene after prehospital treatment with naloxone. Although no statistically significant difference was observed, it seems prudent to administer part of the total naloxone dose s.c. or i.m. to reduce the risk of recurrent respiratory depression. If transported to an ED, an observation period of one to two hours after the last naloxone dose seems adequate. The treating physician must be vigilant, however, due to the high prevalence of polydrug use and high morbidity after non fatal heroin overdose. Furthermore, care should be taken regarding possible chronic disorders and drug rehabilitation should be addressed. In the experimental animal study, two animals developed cardiac arrest after receiving naloxone while in hypoxemia and bradycardia. Further studies are required to assess the effect of naloxone during opioid-induced hypercapnia and hypoxemia in animals addicted to opioids.