Macroseismology as a Component of Seismicity Assessments in an Intraplate Region: Studies of Northern Europe with Emphasis on Finland

This work focuses on the role of macroseismology in the assessment of seismicity and probabilistic seismic hazard in Northern Europe. The main type of data under consideration is a set of macroseismic observations available for a given earthquake. The macroseismic questionnaires used to collect earthquake observations from local residents since the late 1800s constitute a special part of the seismological heritage in the region. Information of the earthquakes felt on the coasts of the Gulf of Bothnia between 31 March and 2 April 1883 and on 28 July 1888 was retrieved from the contemporary Finnish and Swedish newspapers, while the earthquake of 4 November 1898 GMT is an example of an early systematic macroseismic survey in the region. A data set of more than 1200 macroseismic questionnaires is available for the earthquake in Central Finland on 16 November 1931. Basic macroseismic investigations including preparation of new intensity data point (IDP) maps were conducted for these earthquakes. Previously disregarded usable observations were found in the press. The improved collection of IDPs of the 1888 earthquake shows that this event was a rare occurrence in the area. In contrast to earlier notions it was felt on both sides of the Gulf of Bothnia. The data on the earthquake of 4 November 1898 GMT were augmented with historical background information discovered in various archives and libraries. This earthquake was of some concern to the authorities, because extra fire inspections were conducted in three towns at least, i.e. Tornio, Haparanda and Piteå, located in the centre of the area of perceptibility. This event posed the indirect hazard of fire, although its magnitude around 4.6 was minor on the global scale. The distribution of slightly damaging intensities was larger than previously outlined. This may have resulted from the amplification of the ground shaking in the soft soil of the coast and river valleys where most of the population was found. The large data set of the 1931 earthquake provided an opportunity to apply statistical methods and assess methodologies that can be used when dealing with macroseismic intensity. It was evaluated using correspondence analysis. Different approaches such as gridding were tested to estimate the macroseismic field from the intensity values distributed irregularly in space. In general, the characteristics of intensity warrant careful consideration. A more pervasive perception of intensity as an ordinal quantity affected by uncertainties is advocated. A parametric earthquake catalogue comprising entries from both the macroseismic and instrumental era was used for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. The parametric-historic methodology was applied to estimate seismic hazard at a given site in Finland and to prepare a seismic hazard map for Northern Europe. The interpretation of these results is an important issue, because the recurrence times of damaging earthquakes may well exceed thousands of years in an intraplate setting such as Northern Europe. This application may therefore be seen as an example of short-term hazard assessment.

The epidemiology of severe Streptococcus pyogenes disease in Europe

Diseases caused by the Lancefield group A streptococcus, Streptococcus pyogenes, are amongst the most challenging to clinicians and public health specialists alike. Although severe infections caused by S. pyogenes are relatively uncommon, affecting around 3 per 100,000 of the population per annum in developed countries, the case fatality is high relative to many other infections. Despite a long scientific tradition of studying their occurrence and characteristics, many aspects of their epidemiology remain poorly understood, and potential control measures undefined. Epidemiological studies can play an important role in identifying host, pathogen and environmental factors associated with risk of disease, manifestation of particular syndromes or poor survival. This can be of value in targeting prevention activities, as well directing further basic research, potentially paving the way for the identification of novel therapeutic targets. The formation of a European network, Strep-EURO, provided an opportunity to explore epidemiological patterns across Europe. Funded by the Fifth Framework Programme of the European Commission s Directorate-General for Research (QLK2.CT.2002.01398), the Strep-EURO network was launched in September 2002. Twelve participants across eleven countries took part, led by the University of Lund in Sweden. Cases were defined as patients with S. pyogenes isolated from a normally sterile site, or non-sterile site in combination with clinical signs of streptococcal toxic shock syndrome (STSS). All participating countries undertook prospective enhanced surveillance between 1st January 2003 and 31st December 2004 to identify cases diagnosed during this period. A standardised surveillance dataset was defined, comprising demographic, clinical and risk factor information collected through a questionnaire. Isolates were collected by the national reference laboratories and characterised according to their M protein using conventional serological and emm gene typing. Descriptive statistics and multivariable analyses were undertaken to compare characteristics of cases between countries and identify factors associated with increased risk of death or development of STSS. Crude and age-adjusted rates of infection were calculated for each country where a catchment population could be defined. The project succeeded in establishing the first European surveillance network for severe S. pyogenes infections, with 5522 cases identified over the two years. Analysis of data gathered in the eleven countries yielded important new information on the epidemiology of severe S. pyogenes infections in Europe during the 2000s. Comprehensive epidemiological data on these infections were obtained for the first time from France, Greece and Romania. Incidence estimates identified a general north-south gradient, from high to low. Remarkably similar age-standardised rates were observed among the three Nordic participants, between 2.2 and 2.3 per 100,000 population. Rates in the UK were higher still, 2.9/100,000, elevated by an upsurge in drug injectors. Rates from these northern countries were reasonably close to those observed in the USA and Australia during this period. In contrast, rates of reports in the more central and southern countries (Czech Republic, Romania, Cyprus and Italy) were substantially lower, 0.3 to 1.5 per 100,000 population, a likely reflection of poorer uptake of microbiological diagnostic methods within these countries. Analysis of project data brought some new insights into risk factors for severe S. pyogenes infection, especially the importance of injecting drug users in the UK, with infections in this group fundamentally reshaping the epidemiology of these infections during this period. Several novel findings arose through this work, including the high degree of congruence in seasonal patterns between countries and the seasonal changes in case fatality rates. Elderly patients, those with compromised immune systems, those who developed STSS and those infected with an emm/M78, emm/M5, emm/M3 or emm/M1 were found to be most likely to die as a result of their infection, whereas those diagnosed with cellulitis, septic arthritis, puerperal sepsis or with non-focal infection were associated with low risk of death, as were infections occurring during October. Analysis of augmented data from the UK found use of NSAIDs to be significantly associated with development of STSS, adding further fuel to the debate surrounding the role of NSAIDs in the development of severe disease. As a largely community-acquired infection, occurring sporadically and diffusely throughout the population, opportunities for control of severe infections caused by S. pyogenes remain limited, primarily involving contact chemoprophylaxis where clusters arise. Analysis of UK Strep-EURO data were used to quantify the risk to household contacts of cases, forming the basis of national guidance on the management of infection. Vaccines currently under development could offer a more effective control programme in future. Surveillance of invasive infections caused by S. pyogenes is of considerable public health importance as a means of identifying long and short-term trends in incidence, allowing the need for, or impact of, public health measures to be evaluated. As a dynamic pathogen co-existing among a dynamic population, new opportunities for exploitation of its human host are likely to arise periodically, and as such continued monitoring remains essential.

Postglacial climate changes and vegetation responses in northern Europe

Postglacial climate changes and vegetation responses were studied using a combination of biological and physical indicators preserved in lake sediments. Low-frequency trends, high-frequency events and rapid shifts in temperature and moisture balance were probed using pollen-based quantitative temperature reconstructions and oxygen-isotopes from authigenic carbonate and aquatic cellulose, respectively. Pollen and plant macrofossils were employed to shed light on the presence and response rates of plant populations in response to climate changes, particularly focusing on common boreal and temperate tree species. Additional geochemical and isotopic tracers facilitated the interpretation of pollen- and oxygen-isotope data. The results show that the common boreal trees were present in the Baltic region (~55°N) during the Lateglacial, which contrasts with the traditional view of species refuge locations in the south-European peninsulas during the glacial/interglacial cycles. The findings of this work are in agreement with recent paleoecological and genetic evidence suggesting that scattered populations of tree species persisted at higher latitudes, and that these taxa were likely limited to boreal trees. Moreover, the results demonstrate that stepwise changes in plant communities took place in concert with major climate fluctuations of the glacial/interglacial transition. Postglacial climate trends in northern Europe were characterized by rise, maxima and fall in temperatures and related changes in moisture balance. Following the deglaciation of the Northern Hemisphere and the early Holocene reorganization of the ice-ocean-atmosphere system, the long-term temperature trends followed gradually decreasing summer insolation. The early Holocene (~11,700-8000 cal yr BP) was overall cool, moist and oceanic, although the earliest Holocene effective humidity may have been low particularly in the eastern part of northern Europe. The gradual warming trend was interrupted by a cold event ~8200 cal yr BP. The maximum temperatures, ~1.5-3.0°C above modern values, were attained ~8000-4000 cal yr BP. This mid-Holocene peak warmth was coupled with low lake levels, low effective humidity and summertime drought. The late Holocene (~4000 cal yr BP-present) was characterized by gradually decreasing temperatures, higher lake levels and higher effective humidity. Moreover, the gradual trends of the late Holocene were probably superimposed by higher-frequency variability. The spatial variability of the Holocene temperature and moisture balance patterns were tentatively attributed to the differing heat capacities of continents and oceans, changes in atmospheric circulation modes and position of sites and subregions with respect to large water bodies and topographic barriers. The combination of physical and biological proxy archives is a pivotal aspect of this work, because non-climatic factors, such as postglacial migration, disturbances and competitive interactions, can influence reshuffling of vegetation and hence, pollen-based climate reconstructions. The oxygen-isotope records and other physical proxies presented in this work manifest that postglacial climate changes were the main driver of the establishment and expansion of temperate and boreal tree populations, and hence, large-scale and long-term vegetation patterns were in dynamic equilibrium with climate. A notable exception to this pattern may be the postglacial invasion of Norway spruce and the related suppression of mid-Holocene temperate forest. This salient step in north-European vegetation history, the development of the modern boreal ecosystem, cannot be unambiguously explained by current evidence of postglacial climate changes. The results of this work highlight that plant populations, including long-lived trees, may be able to respond strikingly rapidly to changes in climate. Moreover, interannual and seasonal variation and extreme events can exert an important influence on vegetation reshuffling. Importantly, the studies imply that the presence of diffuse refuge populations or local stands among the prevailing vegetation may have provided the means for extraordinarily rapid vegetation responses. Hence, if scattered populations are not provided and tree populations are to migrate long distances, their capacity to keep up with predicted rates of future climate change may be lower than previously thought.

Eurasian large mammal dynamics in response to changing environments during the Late Neogene

Nisäkkäiden levinneisyyteen, niiden morfologisiin ja ekologisiin piirteisiin vaikuttavat ympäristön sekä lyhyet että pitkäkestoiset muutokset, etenkin ilmaston ja kasvillisuuden vaihtelut. Työssä tutkittiin nisäkkäiden sopeutumista ilmastonmuutoksiin Euraasiassa viimeisen 24 miljoonan vuoden aikana. Tutkimuksessa keskityttiin varsinkin viimeiseen kahteen miljoonaan vuoteen, jonka aikana ilmasto muuttui voimakkaasti ja ihmisen toiminta alkoi tulla merkittäväksi. Tämän takia on usein vaikea erottaa, kummasta em. seikasta jonkin nisäkäslajin sukupuutto tai häviäminen alueelta johtui. Aineistona käytettiin laajaa venäjänkielistä kirjallisuutta, josta löytyvät tiedot ovat kääntämättöminä jääneet aiemmin länsimaisen tutkimuksen ulkopuolelle. Työssä käytettiin myös NOW-tietokantaa, jossa on fossiilisten nisäkkäiden löytöpaikat sekä niiden iät.

A Soul for Europe? : Contributions of European Churches to the Forum of the Convention on the Future of Europe

The aim of this research was to study how European churches contributed to the shaping of the Constitutional Treaty during the work of the Convention on the future of Europe through the public discussion forum, established by the Convention for this specific purpose in the years 2002 2003. In particular, this study sought to uncover the areas of interest brought up by the churches in their contributions, the objectives they pursued, and the approaches and arguments they employed to reach those objectives. The data for this study comprised all official submissions by European churches and church alliances to the Forum, totalling 21 contributions. A central criterion for inclusion of the data was that the organization can reasonably be assumed to represent the official position of one or more Christian churches within the European Union before the 2004 expansion. The contributing churches and organizations represent the vast majority of Christians in Europe. The data was analyzed using primarily qualitative content analysis. The research approach was a combination of abductive and inductive inference. Based on the analysis a two-fold theoretical framework was adopted, focusing on theories of public religion, secularization and deprivatization of religion, and of legitimation and collective identity. The main areas of interest found in the contributions of the churches were the value foundation of the European Union, which is demanded to coherently permeate all policies and actions of the EU, and the social dimension of Europe, which must be given equal status to the political and economic dimensions. In both areas the churches claim significant experience and expertise, which they want to see recognized in the Constituional Treaty through a formally guaranteed status for churches and religious communities in the EU. In their contributions the churches show a strong determination to secure a significant role for both religion and religious communities in the public life of Europe. As for the role of religion, they point out to its potential as a motivating and cohesive force in society and as a building block for a collective European identity, which is still missing. Churches also pursue a substantial public role for themselves beyond the spiritual dimension, permeating the secular areas of the social, political and economic dimensions. The arguments in suppport of such role are embedded in their interest and expertise in spiritual and other fundamental values and their broad involvement in providing social services. In this context churches use expressions inclusive of all religions and convictions, albeit clearly advocating the primacy of Europe's Christian heritage. Based on their historical role, their social involvement and their spiritual mission they use the public debate on the Constitutional Treaty to gain formal legitimacy for the public status of religion and religious communities, both nationally and on a European level, through appropriate provisions in the constitutional text. In return they offer the European Union ways of improving its own legitimacy by reducing the democratic and ideological deficit of the EU and advancing the development a collective European identity.

Regional Integration and the State : The Changing Nature of Sovereignty in Southern Africa and Europe

The study explores the role of the state in regional integration processes. The question is approached through theoretical discussion and two case-studies - SADC (Southern African Development Community) and the EU. The main research question of the study is, what are the possibilities and problems of the integration process in Southern Africa and how do they differ from the possibilities and problems of the integration process in Europe. The undelrying question of the study is why do states decide to participate in an integration process where they have to limit their sovereignty. Review of the theoretical discussion of the integration studies shows that the integration process is affected by several factors on different levels of the international system. But the state plays a central role in integration processes - integration processes are inititated and carried on by the participatig states. The European integration process shows that the interests of the state can change over time. At the beginning of the integration process, the objective was to strengthen participating states. Later EU member states have decided that it is in their interest to deepen the process even if it has meant limitation of their sovereignty. The determinant factor has been that the member states have considered it to be in their interst to deepen the process. In Southern Africa the integration process is only at the beginning. SADC aims to establish a free trade area by 2008. The biggest challenge is how to implement the integration process so that it benefits all member states in a region that is economically dominated by South Africa. In practice this can be achieved through establishment of corrective mechanisms, which ensure equitable distribution of benefits. This would require deeper integration and South Africa to adapt responsibility towards its regional partners. African integration processes in general have not been as successful as for example the EU. African states have been reluctant to limit their sovereignty in favour of regional organisations.This can be explained by the differences between European and African states. The EU member states have been democracies while African states have been characterised by concentration of power in the executive branch. Furthermore the political systems in Africa have been characterised by vertical clientelist reltionships. As a result it has not been in the interest of the political elite to limit the state sovereignty in favour of regional organisations. In recent years SADC has been relatively succesful in its integration process and reforms, but a lot remains to be done before the implementation of the free trade area can be succesful. The institutional structure and treaties of SADC differ from the structures of the EU. Member states are the main actors of the integration processes. Their differences are reflected in the process and produce different kinds of integration in different parts of the world.

Seismic Tomography and Earthquake Mechanism Beneath the Central Fennoscandian Shield

The aim of this thesis was to study the seismic tomography structure of the earth s crust together with earthquake distribution and mechanism beneath the central Fennoscandian Shield, mainly in southern and central Finland. The earthquake foci and some fault plane solutions are correlated with 3-D images of the velocity tomography. The results are discussed in relation to the stress field of the Shield and with other geophysical, e.g. geomagnetic, gravimetric, tectonic, and anisotropy studies of the Shield. The earthquake data of the Fennoscandian Shield has been extracted from the Nordic earthquake parameter data base which was founded at the time of inception of the earthquake catalogue for northern Europe. Eight earlier earthquake source mechanisms are included in a pilot study on creating a novel technique for calculating an earthquake fault plane solution. Altogether, eleven source mechanisms of shallow, weak earthquakes are related in the 3-D tomography model to trace stresses of the crust in southern and central Finland. The earthquakes in the eastern part of the Fennoscandian Shield represent low-active, intraplate seismicity. Earthquake mechanisms with NW-SE oriented horizontal compression confirm that the dominant stress field originates from the ridge-push force in the North Atlantic Ocean. Earthquakes accumulate in coastal areas, in intersections of tectonic lineaments, in main fault zones or are bordered by fault lines. The majority of Fennoscandian earthquakes concentrate on the south-western Shield in southern Norway and Sweden. Onwards, epicentres spread via the ridge of the Shield along the west-coast of the Gulf of Bothnia northwards along the Tornio River - Finnmark fault system to the Barents Sea, and branch out north-eastwards via the Kuusamo region to the White Sea Kola Peninsula faults. The local seismic tomographic method was applied to find the terrane distribution within the central parts of the Shield the Svecofennian Orogen. From 300 local explosions a total of 19765 crustal Pg- and Sg-wave arrival times were inverted to create independent 3-D Vp and Vs tomographic models, from which the Vp/Vs ratio was calculated. The 3-D structure of the crust is presented as a P-wave and for the first time as an S-wave velocity model, and also as a Vp/Vs-ratio model of the SVEKALAPKO area that covers 700x800 km2 in southern and central Finland. Also, some P-wave Moho-reflection data was interpolated to image the relief of the crust-mantle boundary (i.e. Moho). In the tomography model, the seismic velocities vary smoothly. The lateral variations are larger for Vp (dVp =0.7 km/s) than for Vs (dVs =0.4 km/s). The Vp/Vs ratio varies spatially more distinctly than P- and S-wave velocities, usually from 1.70 to 1.74 in the upper crust and from 1.72 to 1.78 in the lower crust. Schist belts and their continuations at depth are associated with lower velocities and lower Vp/Vs ratios than in the granitoid areas. The tomography modelling suggests that the Svecofennian Orogen was accreted from crustal blocks ranging in size from 100x100 km2 to 200x200 km2 in cross-sectional area. The intervening sedimentary belts have ca. 0.2 km/s lower P- and S-wave velocities and ca. 0.04 lower Vp/Vs ratios. Thus, the tomographic model supports the concept that the thick Svecofennian crust was accreted from several crustal terranes, some hidden, and that the crust was later modified by intra- and underplating. In conclusion, as a novel approach the earthquake focal mechanism and focal depth distribution is discussed in relation to the 3-D tomography model. The schist belts and the transformation zones between the high- and low-velocity anomaly blocks are characterized by deeper earthquakes than the granitoid areas where shallow events dominate. Although only a few focal mechanisms were solved for southern Finland, there is a trend towards strike-slip and oblique strike-slip movements inside schist areas. The normal dip-slip type earthquakes are typical in the seismically active Kuusamo district in the NE edge of the SVEKALAPKO area, where the Archean crust is ca. 15-20 km thinner than the Proterozoic Svecofennian crust. Two near vertical dip-slip mechanism earthquakes occurred in the NE-SW junction between the Central Finland Granitoid Complex and the Vyborg rapakivi batholith, where high Vp/Vs-ratio deep-set intrusion splits the southern Finland schist belt into two parts in the tomography model.

Patents, Ethics and Stem Cell Research : The Case of hESC Innovation in Australia, Europe and the United States

Embryonic stem cells offer potentially a ground-breaking insight into health and diseases and are said to offer hope in discovering cures for many ailments unimaginable few years ago. Human embryonic stem cells are undifferentiated, immature cells that possess an amazing ability to develop into almost any body cell such as heart muscle, bone, nerve and blood cells and possibly even organs in due course. This remarkable feature, enabling embryonic stem cells to proliferate indefinitely in vitro (in a test tube), has branded them as a so-called miracle cure . Their potential use in clinical applications provides hope to many sufferers of debilitating and fatal medical conditions. However, the emergence of stem cell research has resulted in intense debates about its promises and dangers. On the one hand, advocates hail its potential, ranging from alleviating and even curing fatal and debilitating diseases such as Parkinson s, diabetes, heart ailments and so forth. On the other hand, opponents decry its dangers, drawing attention to the inherent risks of human embryo destruction, cloning for research purposes and reproductive cloning eventually. Lately, however, the policy battles surrounding human embryonic stem cell innovation have shifted from being a controversial research to scuffles within intellectual property rights. In fact, the ability to obtain patents represents a pivotal factor in the economic success or failure of this new biotechnology. Although, stem cell patents tend to more or less satisfy the standard patentability requirements, they also raise serious ethical and moral questions about the meaning of the exclusions on ethical or moral grounds as found in European and to an extent American and Australian patent laws. At present there is a sort of a calamity over human embryonic stem cell patents in Europe and to an extent in Australia and the United States. This in turn has created a sense of urgency to engage all relevant parties in the discourse on how best to approach patenting of this new form of scientific innovation. In essence, this should become a highly favoured patenting priority. To the contrary, stem cell innovation and its reliance on patent protection risk turmoil, uncertainty, confusion and even a halt on not only stem cell research but also further emerging biotechnology research and development. The patent system is premised upon the fundamental principle of balance which ought to ensure that the temporary monopoly awarded to the inventor equals that of the social benefit provided by the disclosure of the invention. Ensuring and maintaining this balance within the patent system when patenting human embryonic stem cells is of crucial contemporary relevance. Yet, the patenting of human embryonic stem cells raises some fundamental moral, social and legal questions. Overall, the present approach of patenting human embryonic stem cell related inventions is unsatisfactory and ineffective. This draws attention to a specific question which provides for a conceptual framework for this work. That question is the following: how can the investigated patent offices successfully deal with patentability of human embryonic stem cells? This in turn points at the thorny issue of application of the morality clause in this field. In particular, the interpretation of the exclusions on ethical or moral grounds as found in Australian, American and European legislative and judicial precedents. The Thesis seeks to compare laws and legal practices surrounding patentability of human embryonic stem cells in Australia and the United States with that of Europe. By using Europe as the primary case study for lessons and guidance, the central goal of the Thesis then becomes the determination of the type of solutions available to Europe with prospects to apply such to Australia and the United States. The Dissertation purports to define the ethical implications that arise with patenting human embryonic stem cells and intends to offer resolutions to the key ethical dilemmas surrounding patentability of human embryonic stem cells and other morally controversial biotechnology inventions. In particular, the Thesis goal is to propose a functional framework that may be used as a benchmark for an informed discussion on the solution to resolving ethical and legal tensions that come with patentability of human embryonic stem cells in Australian, American and European patent worlds. Key research questions that arise from these objectives and which continuously thread throughout the monograph are: 1. How do common law countries such as Australia and the United States approach and deal with patentability of human embryonic stem cells in their jurisdictions? These practices are then compared to the situation in Europe as represented by the United Kingdom (first two chapters), the Court of Justice of the European Union and the European Patent Office decisions (Chapter 3 onwards) in order to obtain a full picture of the present patenting procedures on the European soil. 2. How are ethical and moral considerations taken into account at patent offices investigated when assessing patentability of human embryonic stem cell related inventions? In order to assess this part, the Thesis evaluates how ethical issues that arise with patent applications are dealt with by: a) Legislative history of the modern patent system from its inception in 15th Century England to present day patent laws. b) Australian, American and European patent offices presently and in the past, including other relevant legal precedents on the subject matter. c) Normative ethical theories. d) The notion of human dignity used as the lowest common denominator for the interpretation of the European morality clause. 3. Given the existence of the morality clause in form of Article 6(1) of the Directive 98/44/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 6 July 1998 on the legal protection of biotechnological inventions which corresponds to Article 53(a) European Patent Convention, a special emphasis is put on Europe as a guiding principle for Australia and the United States. Any room for improvement of the European morality clause and Europe s current manner of evaluating ethical tensions surrounding human embryonic stem cell inventions is examined. 4. A summary of options (as represented by Australia, the United States and Europe) available as a basis for the optimal examination procedure of human embryonic stem cell inventions is depicted, whereas the best of such alternatives is deduced in order to create a benchmark framework. This framework is then utilised on and promoted as a tool to assist Europe (as represented by the European Patent Office) in examining human embryonic stem cell patent applications. This method suggests a possibility of implementing an institution solution. 5. Ultimately, a question of whether such reformed European patent system can be used as a founding stone for a potential patent reform in Australia and the United States when examining human embryonic stem cells or other morally controversial inventions is surveyed. The author wishes to emphasise that the guiding thought while carrying out this work is to convey the significance of identifying, analysing and clarifying the ethical tensions surrounding patenting human embryonic stem cells and ultimately present a solution that adequately assesses patentability of human embryonic stem cell inventions and related biotechnologies. In answering the key questions above, the Thesis strives to contribute to the broader stem cell debate about how and to which extent ethical and social positions should be integrated into the patenting procedure in pluralistic and morally divided democracies of Europe and subsequently Australia and the United States.

Endemic malaria: an 'indoor' disease in northern Europe

Background: Endemic northern malaria reached 68°N latitude in Europe during the 19th century, where the summer mean temperature only irregularly exceeded 16°C, the lower limit needed for sporogony of Plasmodium vivax. Because of the available historical material and little use of quinine, Finland was suitable for an analysis of endemic malaria and temperature. Methods: Annual malaria death frequencies during 1800–1870 extracted from parish records were analysed against long-term temperature records in Finland, Russia and Sweden. Supporting data from 1750–1799 were used in the interpretation of the results. The life cycle and behaviour of the anopheline mosquitoes were interpreted according to the literature. Results: Malaria frequencies correlated strongly with the mean temperature of June and July of the preceding summer, corresponding to larval development of the vector. Hatching of imagoes peaks in the middle of August, when the temperature most years is too low for the sporogony of Plasmodium. After mating some of the females hibernate in human dwellings. If the female gets gametocytes from infective humans, the development of Plasmodium can only continue indoors, in heated buildings. Conclusion: Northern malaria existed in a cold climate by means of summer dormancy of hypnozoites in humans and indoor transmission of sporozoites throughout the winter by semiactive hibernating mosquitoes. Variable climatic conditions did not affect this relationship. The epidemics, however, were regulated by the population size of the mosquitoes which, in turn, ultimately was controlled by the temperatures of the preceding summer.