Geological factors affecting on after-use of Finnish cut-over peatlands : with implications on the carbon accumulation

In Finland, peat harvesting sites are utilized down almost to the mineral soil. In this situation the properties of mineral subsoil are likely to have considerable influence on the suitability for the various after-use forms. The aims of this study were to recognize the chemical and physical properties of mineral subsoils possibly limiting the after-use of cut-over peatlands, to define a minimum practice for mineral subsoil studies and to describe the role of different geological areas. The future percentages of the different after-use forms were predicted, which made it possible to predict also carbon accumulation in this future situation. Mineral subsoils of 54 different peat production areas were studied. Their general features and grain size distribution was analysed. Other general items studied were pH, electrical conductivity, organic matter, water soluble nutrients (P, NO3-N, NH4-N, S and Fe) and exchangeable nutrients (Ca, Mg and K). In some cases also other elements were analysed. In an additional case study carbon accumulation effectiveness before the intervention was evaluated on three sites in Oulu area (representing sites typically considered for peat production). Areas with relatively sulphur rich mineral subsoil and pool-forming areas with very fine and compact mineral subsoil together covered approximately 1/5 of all areas. These areas were unsuitable for commercial use. They were recommended for example for mire regeneration. Another approximate 1/5 of the areas included very coarse or very fine sediments. Commercial use of these areas would demand special techniques - like using the remaining peat layer for compensating properties missing from the mineral subsoil. One after-use form was seldom suitable for one whole released peat production area. Three typical distribution patterns (models) of different mineral subsoils within individual peatlands were found. 57 % of studied cut-over peatlands were well suited for forestry. In a conservative calculation 26% of the areas were clearly suitable for agriculture, horticulture or energy crop production. If till without large boulders was included, the percentage of areas suitable to field crop production would be 42 %. 9-14 % of all areas were well suitable for mire regeneration or bird sanctuaries, but all areas were considered possible for mire regeneration with correct techniques. Also another 11 % was recommended for mire regeneration to avoid disturbing the mineral subsoil, so total 20-25 % of the areas would be used for rewetting. High sulphur concentrations and acidity were typical to the areas below the highest shoreline of the ancient Litorina sea and Lake Ladoga Bothnian Bay zone. Also differences related to nutrition were detected. In coarse sediments natural nutrient concentration was clearly higher in Lake Ladoga Bothnian Bay zone and in the areas of Svecokarelian schists and gneisses, than in Granitoid area of central Finland and in Archaean gneiss areas. Based on this study the recommended minimum analysis for after-use planning was for pH, sulphur content and fine material (<0.06 mm) percentage. Nutrition capacity could be analysed using the natural concentrations of calcium, magnesium and potassium. Carbon accumulation scenarios were developed based on the land-use predictions. These scenarios were calculated for areas in peat production and the areas released from peat production (59300 ha + 15 671 ha). Carbon accumulation of the scenarios varied between 0.074 and 0.152 million t C a-1. In the three peatlands considered for peat production the long term carbon accumulation rates varied between 13 and 24 g C m-2 a-1. The natural annual carbon accumulation had been decreasing towards the time of possible intervention.

Modeling Asymmetries in Financial Data with Multiplicative Error Models

This thesis addresses modeling of financial time series, especially stock market returns and daily price ranges. Modeling data of this kind can be approached with so-called multiplicative error models (MEM). These models nest several well known time series models such as GARCH, ACD and CARR models. They are able to capture many well established features of financial time series including volatility clustering and leptokurtosis. In contrast to these phenomena, different kinds of asymmetries have received relatively little attention in the existing literature. In this thesis asymmetries arise from various sources. They are observed in both conditional and unconditional distributions, for variables with non-negative values and for variables that have values on the real line. In the multivariate context asymmetries can be observed in the marginal distributions as well as in the relationships of the variables modeled. New methods for all these cases are proposed. Chapter 2 considers GARCH models and modeling of returns of two stock market indices. The chapter introduces the so-called generalized hyperbolic (GH) GARCH model to account for asymmetries in both conditional and unconditional distribution. In particular, two special cases of the GARCH-GH model which describe the data most accurately are proposed. They are found to improve the fit of the model when compared to symmetric GARCH models. The advantages of accounting for asymmetries are also observed through Value-at-Risk applications. Both theoretical and empirical contributions are provided in Chapter 3 of the thesis. In this chapter the so-called mixture conditional autoregressive range (MCARR) model is introduced, examined and applied to daily price ranges of the Hang Seng Index. The conditions for the strict and weak stationarity of the model as well as an expression for the autocorrelation function are obtained by writing the MCARR model as a first order autoregressive process with random coefficients. The chapter also introduces inverse gamma (IG) distribution to CARR models. The advantages of CARR-IG and MCARR-IG specifications over conventional CARR models are found in the empirical application both in- and out-of-sample. Chapter 4 discusses the simultaneous modeling of absolute returns and daily price ranges. In this part of the thesis a vector multiplicative error model (VMEM) with asymmetric Gumbel copula is found to provide substantial benefits over the existing VMEM models based on elliptical copulas. The proposed specification is able to capture the highly asymmetric dependence of the modeled variables thereby improving the performance of the model considerably. The economic significance of the results obtained is established when the information content of the volatility forecasts derived is examined.

Modeling Efficient Classification as a Process of Confidence Assessment and Delegation

In visual object detection and recognition, classifiers have two interesting characteristics: accuracy and speed. Accuracy depends on the complexity of the image features and classifier decision surfaces. Speed depends on the hardware and the computational effort required to use the features and decision surfaces. When attempts to increase accuracy lead to increases in complexity and effort, it is necessary to ask how much are we willing to pay for increased accuracy. For example, if increased computational effort implies quickly diminishing returns in accuracy, then those designing inexpensive surveillance applications cannot aim for maximum accuracy at any cost. It becomes necessary to find trade-offs between accuracy and effort. We study efficient classification of images depicting real-world objects and scenes. Classification is efficient when a classifier can be controlled so that the desired trade-off between accuracy and effort (speed) is achieved and unnecessary computations are avoided on a per input basis. A framework is proposed for understanding and modeling efficient classification of images. Classification is modeled as a tree-like process. In designing the framework, it is important to recognize what is essential and to avoid structures that are narrow in applicability. Earlier frameworks are lacking in this regard. The overall contribution is two-fold. First, the framework is presented, subjected to experiments, and shown to be satisfactory. Second, certain unconventional approaches are experimented with. This allows the separation of the essential from the conventional. To determine if the framework is satisfactory, three categories of questions are identified: trade-off optimization, classifier tree organization, and rules for delegation and confidence modeling. Questions and problems related to each category are addressed and empirical results are presented. For example, related to trade-off optimization, we address the problem of computational bottlenecks that limit the range of trade-offs. We also ask if accuracy versus effort trade-offs can be controlled after training. For another example, regarding classifier tree organization, we first consider the task of organizing a tree in a problem-specific manner. We then ask if problem-specific organization is necessary.

Modeling ecological and evolutionary processes in spatially structured populations

Many species inhabit fragmented landscapes, resulting either from anthropogenic or from natural processes. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured populations are affected by a complex interplay between endogenous and exogenous factors. The metapopulation approach, simplifying the landscape to a discrete set of patches of breeding habitat surrounded by unsuitable matrix, has become a widely applied paradigm for the study of species inhabiting highly fragmented landscapes. In this thesis, I focus on the construction of biologically realistic models and their parameterization with empirical data, with the general objective of understanding how the interactions between individuals and their spatially structured environment affect ecological and evolutionary processes in fragmented landscapes. I study two hierarchically structured model systems, which are the Glanville fritillary butterfly in the Åland Islands, and a system of two interacting aphid species in the Tvärminne archipelago, both being located in South-Western Finland. The interesting and challenging feature of both study systems is that the population dynamics occur over multiple spatial scales that are linked by various processes. My main emphasis is in the development of mathematical and statistical methodologies. For the Glanville fritillary case study, I first build a Bayesian framework for the estimation of death rates and capture probabilities from mark-recapture data, with the novelty of accounting for variation among individuals in capture probabilities and survival. I then characterize the dispersal phase of the butterflies by deriving a mathematical approximation of a diffusion-based movement model applied to a network of patches. I use the movement model as a building block to construct an individual-based evolutionary model for the Glanville fritillary butterfly metapopulation. I parameterize the evolutionary model using a pattern-oriented approach, and use it to study how the landscape structure affects the evolution of dispersal. For the aphid case study, I develop a Bayesian model of hierarchical multi-scale metapopulation dynamics, where the observed extinction and colonization rates are decomposed into intrinsic rates operating specifically at each spatial scale. In summary, I show how analytical approaches, hierarchical Bayesian methods and individual-based simulations can be used individually or in combination to tackle complex problems from many different viewpoints. In particular, hierarchical Bayesian methods provide a useful tool for decomposing ecological complexity into more tractable components.

Theoretical modeling of ionospheric electrodynamics including induction effects

This thesis deals with theoretical modeling of the electrodynamics of auroral ionospheres. In the five research articles forming the main part of the thesis we have concentrated on two main themes: Development of new data-analysis techniques and study of inductive phenomena in the ionospheric electrodynamics. The introductory part of the thesis provides a background for these new results and places them in the wider context of ionospheric research. In this thesis we have developed a new tool (called 1D SECS) for analysing ground based magnetic measurements from a 1-dimensional magnetometer chain (usually aligned in the North-South direction) and a new method for obtaining ionospheric electric field from combined ground based magnetic measurements and estimated ionospheric electric conductance. Both these methods are based on earlier work, but contain important new features: 1D SECS respects the spherical geometry of large scale ionospheric electrojet systems and due to an innovative way of implementing boundary conditions the new method for obtaining electric fields can be applied also at local scale studies. These new calculation methods have been tested using both simulated and real data. The tests indicate that the new methods are more reliable than the previous techniques. Inductive phenomena are intimately related to temporal changes in electric currents. As the large scale ionospheric current systems change relatively slowly, in time scales of several minutes or hours, inductive effects are usually assumed to be negligible. However, during the past ten years, it has been realised that induction can play an important part in some ionospheric phenomena. In this thesis we have studied the role of inductive electric fields and currents in ionospheric electrodynamics. We have formulated the induction problem so that only ionospheric electric parameters are used in the calculations. This is in contrast to previous studies, which require knowledge of the magnetospheric-ionosphere coupling. We have applied our technique to several realistic models of typical auroral phenomena. The results indicate that inductive electric fields and currents are locally important during the most dynamical phenomena (like the westward travelling surge, WTS). In these situations induction may locally contribute up to 20-30% of the total ionospheric electric field and currents. Inductive phenomena do also change the field-aligned currents flowing between the ionosphere and magnetosphere, thus modifying the coupling between the two regions.

Modeling of Surface UV Radiation Using Satellite Data

Solar UV radiation is harmful for life on planet Earth, but fortunately the atmospheric oxygen and ozone absorb almost entirely the most energetic UVC radiation photons. However, part of the UVB radiation and much of the UVA radiation reaches the surface of the Earth, and affect human health, environment, materials and drive atmospheric and aquatic photochemical processes. In order to quantify these effects and processes there is a need for ground-based UV measurements and radiative transfer modeling to estimate the amounts of UV radiation reaching the biosphere. Satellite measurements with their near-global spatial coverage and long-term data conti-nuity offer an attractive option for estimation of the surface UV radiation. This work focuses on radiative transfer theory based methods used for estimation of the UV radiation reaching the surface of the Earth. The objectives of the thesis were to implement the surface UV algorithm originally developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center for estimation of the surface UV irradiance from the meas-urements of the Dutch-Finnish built Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), to improve the original surface UV algorithm especially in relation with snow cover, to validate the OMI-derived daily surface UV doses against ground-based measurements, and to demonstrate how the satellite-derived surface UV data can be used to study the effects of the UV radiation. The thesis consists of seven original papers and a summary. The summary includes an introduction of the OMI instrument, a review of the methods used for modeling of the surface UV using satellite data as well as the con-clusions of the main results of the original papers. The first two papers describe the algorithm used for estimation of the surface UV amounts from the OMI measurements as well as the unique Very Fast Delivery processing system developed for processing of the OMI data received at the Sodankylä satellite data centre. The third and the fourth papers present algorithm improvements related to the surface UV albedo of the snow-covered land. Fifth paper presents the results of the comparison of the OMI-derived daily erythemal doses with those calculated from the ground-based measurement data. It gives an estimate of the expected accuracy of the OMI-derived sur-face UV doses for various atmospheric and other conditions, and discusses the causes of the differences between the satellite-derived and ground-based data. The last two papers demonstrate the use of the satellite-derived sur-face UV data. Sixth paper presents an assessment of the photochemical decomposition rates in aquatic environment. Seventh paper presents use of satellite-derived daily surface UV doses for planning of the outdoor material weathering tests.