Essays on the Bioeconomics of the Northern Baltic Fisheries

World marine fisheries suffer from economic and biological overfishing: too many vessels are harvesting too few fish stocks. Fisheries economics has explained the causes of overfishing and provided a theoretical background for management systems capable of solving the problem. Yet only a few examples of fisheries managed by the principles of the bioeconomic theory exist. With the aim of bridging the gap between the actual fish stock assessment models used to provide management advice and economic optimisation models, the thesis explores economically sound harvesting from national and international perspectives. Using data calibrated for the Baltic salmon and herring stocks, optimal harvesting policies are outlined using numerical methods. First, the thesis focuses on the socially optimal harvest of a single salmon stock by commercial and recreational fisheries. The results obtained using dynamic programming show that the optimal fishery configuration would be to close down three out of the five studied fisheries. The result is robust to stock size fluctuations. Compared to a base case situation, the optimal fleet structure would yield a slight decrease in the commercial catch, but a recreational catch that is nearly seven times higher. As a result, the expected economic net benefits from the fishery would increase nearly 60%, and the expected number of juvenile salmon (smolt) would increase by 30%. Second, the thesis explores the management of multiple salmon stocks in an international framework. Non-cooperative and cooperative game theory are used to demonstrate different "what if" scenarios. The results of the four player game suggest that, despite the commonly agreed fishing quota, the behaviour of the countries has been closer to non-cooperation than cooperation. Cooperation would more than double the net benefits from the fishery compared to a past fisheries policy. Side payments, however, are a prerequisite for a cooperative solution. Third, the thesis applies coalitional games in the partition function form to study whether the cooperative solution would be stable despite the potential presence of positive externalities. The results show that the cooperation of two out of four studied countries can be stable. Compared to a past fisheries policy, a stable coalition structure would provide substantial economic benefits. Nevertheless, the status of the salmon stocks would not improve significantly. Fourth, the thesis studies the prerequisites for and potential consequences of the implementation of an individual transferable quota (ITQ) system in the Finnish herring fishery. Simulation results suggest that ITQs would result in a decrease in the number of fishing vessels, but enables positive profits to overlap with a higher stock size. The empirical findings of the thesis affirm that the profitability of the studied fisheries could be improved. The evidence, however, indicates that incentives for free riding exist, and thus the most preferable outcome both in economic and biological terms is elusive.

Bayesian fisheries stock assessment: integrating and updating knowledge

In this thesis the use of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference in fisheries stock assessment is studied. The work was conducted in collaboration of the Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute by using the problem of monitoring and prediction of the juvenile salmon population in the River Tornionjoki as an example application. The River Tornionjoki is the largest salmon river flowing into the Baltic Sea. This thesis tackles the issues of model formulation and model checking as well as computational problems related to Bayesian modelling in the context of fisheries stock assessment. Each article of the thesis provides a novel method either for extracting information from data obtained via a particular type of sampling system or for integrating the information about the fish stock from multiple sources in terms of a population dynamics model. Mark-recapture and removal sampling schemes and a random catch sampling method are covered for the estimation of the population size. In addition, a method for estimating the stock composition of a salmon catch based on DNA samples is also presented. For most of the articles, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been used as a tool to approximate the posterior distribution. Problems arising from the sampling method are also briefly discussed and potential solutions for these problems are proposed. Special emphasis in the discussion is given to the philosophical foundation of the Bayesian approach in the context of fisheries stock assessment. It is argued that the role of subjective prior knowledge needed in practically all parts of a Bayesian model should be recognized and consequently fully utilised in the process of model formulation.

Conservation of Atlantic salmon by supplementary stocking of juvenile fish

Wild salmon stocks in the northern Baltic rivers became endangered in the second half of the 20th century, mainly due to recruitment overfishing. As a result, supplementary stocking was widely practised, and supplementation of the Tornionjoki salmon stock took place over a 25 year period until 2002. The stock has been closely monitored by electrofishing, smolt trapping, mark-recapture studies, catch samples and catch surveys. Background information on hatchery-reared stocked juveniles was also collected for this study. Bayesian statistics was applied to the data as this method offers the possibility of bringing prior information into the analysis and an advanced ability for incorporating uncertainty, and also provides probabilities for a multitude of hypotheses. Substantial divergences between reared and wild Tornionjoki salmon were identified in both demographic and phenological characteristics. The divergences tended to be larger the longer the duration spent in hatchery and the more favourable the hatchery conditions were for fast growth. Differences in environment likely induced most of the divergences, but selection of brood fish might have resulted in genotypic divergence in maturation age of reared salmon. Survival of stocked 1-year old juveniles to smolt varied from about 10% to about 25%. Stocking on the lower reach of the river seemed to decrease survival, and the negative effect of stocking volume on survival raises the concern of possible similar effects on the extant wild population. Post-smolt survival of wild Tornionjoki smolts was on average two times higher than that of smolts stocked as parr and 2.5 times higher than that of stocked smolts. Smolts of different groups showed synchronous variation and similar long-term survival trends. Both groups of reared salmon were more vulnerable to offshore driftnet and coastal trapnet fishing than wild salmon. Average survival from smolt to spawners of wild salmon was 2.8 times higher than that of salmon stocked as parr and 3.3 times higher than that of salmon stocked as smolts. Wild salmon and salmon stocked as parr were found to have similar lifetime survival rates, while stocked smolts have a lifetime survival rate over 4 times higher than the two other groups. If eggs are collected from the wild brood fish, stocking parr would therefore not be a sensible option. Stocking smolts instead would create a net benefit in terms of the number of spawners, but this strategy has serious drawbacks and risks associated with the larger phenotypic and demographic divergences from wild salmon. Supplementation was shown not to be the key factor behind the recovery of the Tornionjoki and other northern Baltic salmon stocks. Instead, a combination of restrictions in the sea fishery and simultaneous occurrence of favourable natural conditions for survival were the main reasons for the revival in the 1990 s. This study questions the effectiveness of supplementation as a conservation management tool. The benefits of supplementation seem at best limited. Relatively high occurrences of reared fish in catches may generate false optimism concerning the effects of supplementation. Supplementation may lead to genetic risks due to problems in brood fish collection and artificial rearing with relaxed natural selection and domestication. Appropriate management of fisheries is the main alternative to supplementation, without which all other efforts for long-term maintenance of a healthy fish resource fail.

Environmental factors and uncertainty in fisheries management in the northern Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is a geologically young, large brackish water basin, and few of the species living there have fully adapted to its special conditions. Many of the species live on the edge of their distribution range in terms of one or more environmental variables such as salinity or temperature. Environmental fluctuations are know to cause fluctuations in populations abundance, and this effect is especially strong near the edges of the distribution range, where even small changes in an environmental variable can be critical to the success of a species. This thesis examines which environmental factors are the most important in relation to the success of various commercially exploited fish species in the northern Baltic Sea. It also examines the uncertainties related to fish stocks current and potential status as well as to their relationship with their environment. The aim is to quantify the uncertainties related to fisheries and environmental management, to find potential management strategies that can be used to reduce uncertainty in management results and to develop methodology related to uncertainty estimation in natural resources management. Bayesian statistical methods are utilized due to their ability to treat uncertainty explicitly in all parts of the statistical model. The results show that uncertainty about important parameters of even the most intensively studied fish species such as salmon (Salmo salar L.) and Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras L.) is large. On the other hand, management approaches that reduce uncertainty can be found. These include utilising information about ecological similarity of fish stocks and species, and using management variables that are directly related to stock parameters that can be measured easily and without extrapolations or assumptions.

Optimal multispecies fishery management in the Baltic Sea: A bioeconomic analysis

The aim of the thesis is to assess the fishery of Baltic cod, herring and sprat by simulation over 50 years time period. We form a bioeconomic multispecies model for the species. We include species interactions into the model because especially cod and sprat stocks have significant effects on each other. We model the development of population dynamics, catches and profits of the fishery with current fishing mortalities, as well as with the optimal profit maximizing fishing mortalities. Thus, we see how the fishery would develop with current mortalities, and how the fishery should be developed in order to yield maximal profits. Especially cod stock has been quite low recently and by optimizing the fishing mortality it could get recovered. In addition, we assess what would happen to the fisheries of the species if more favourable environmental conditions for cod recruitment dominate in the Baltic Sea. The results may yield new information for the fisheries management. According to the results the fishery of Baltic cod, herring and sprat are not at the most profitable level. The fishing mortalities of each species should be lower in order to maximize the profits. By fishing mortality optimizing the net present value would be almost three times higher in the simulation period. The lower fishing mortality of cod would result in a cod stock recovery. If the environmental conditions in the Baltic Sea improved, cod stock would recover even without a decrease in the fishing mortality. Then the increased cod stock would restrict herring and sprat stock remarkably, and harvesting of these species would not be as profitable anymore.