12 resultados para Expectations hypothesis of term struscture of interest rates
em Helda - Digital Repository of University of Helsinki
Resumo:
Major advances in the treatment of preterm infants have occurred during the last three decades. Survival rates have increased, and the first generations of preterm infants born at very low birth weight (VLBW; less than 1500 g) who profited from modern neonatal intensive care are now in young adulthood. The literature shows that VLBW children achieve on average lower scores on cognitive tests, even after exclusion of individuals with obvious neurosensory deficits. Evidence also exists for an increased risk in VLBW children for various neuropsychiatric disorders such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and related behavioral symptoms. Up till now, studies extending into adulthood are sparse, and it remains to be seen whether these problems persist into adulthood. The aim of this thesis was to study ADHD-related symptoms and cognitive and executive functioning in young adults born at VLBW. In addition, we aimed to study sleep disturbances, known to adversely affect both cognition and attention. We hypothesized that preterm birth at VLBW interferes with early brain development in a way that alters the neuropsychological phenotype; this may manifest itself as ADHD symptoms and impaired cognitive abilities in young adulthood. In this cohort study from a geographically defined region, we studied 166 VLBW adults and 172 term-born controls born from 1978 through 1985. At ages 18 to 27 years, the study participants took part in a clinic study during which their physical and psychological health was assessed in detail. Three years later, 213 of these individuals participated in a follow-up. The current study is part of a larger research project (The Helsinki Study of Very Low Birth Weight Adults), and the measurements of interest for this particular study include the following: 1) The Adult Problem Questionnaire (APQ), a self-rating scale of ADHD-related symptoms in adults; 2) A computerized cognitive test battery designed for population studies (CogState) which measures core cognitive abilities such as reaction time, working memory, and visual learning; 3) Sleep assessment by actigraphy, the Basic Nordic Sleep Questionnaire, and the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire. Actigraphs are wrist-worn accelerometers that separate sleep from wakefulness by registering body movements. Contrary to expectations, VLBW adults as a group reported no more ADHD-related behavioral symptoms than did controls. Further subdivision of the VLBW group into SGA (small for gestational age) and AGA (appropriate for gestational age) subgroups, however, revealed more symptoms on ADHD subscales pertaining to executive dysfunction and emotional instability among those born SGA. Thus, it seems that intrauterine growth retardation (for which SGA served as a proxy) is a more essential predictor for self-perceived ADHD symptoms in adulthood than is VLBW birth as such. In line with observations from other cohorts, the VLBW adults reported less risk-taking behavior in terms of substance use (alcohol, smoking, and recreational drugs), a finding reassuring for the VLBW individuals and their families. On the cognitive test, VLBW adults free from neurosensory deficits had longer reaction times than did term-born peers on all tasks included in the test battery, and lower accuracy on the learning task, with no discernible effect of SGA status over and above the effect of VLBW. Altogether, on a group level, even high-functioning VLBW adults show subtle deficits in psychomotor processing speed, visual working memory, and learning abilities. The sleep studies provided no evidence for differences in sleep quality or duration between the two groups. The VLBW adults were, however, at more than two-fold higher risk for sleep-disordered breathing (in terms of chronic snoring). Given the link between sleep-disordered breathing and health sequelae, these results suggest that VLBW individuals may benefit from an increased awareness among clinicians of this potential problem area. An unexpected finding from the sleep studies was the suggestion of an advanced sleep phase: The VLBW adults went to bed earlier according to the actigraphy registrations and also reported earlier wake-up times on the questionnaire. In further study of this issue in conjunction with the follow-up three years later, the VLBW group reported higher levels of morningness propensity, further corroborating the preliminary findings of an advanced sleep phase. Although the clinical implications are not entirely clear, the issue may be worth further study, since circadian rhythms are closely related to health and well-being. In sum, we believe that increased understanding of long-term outcomes after VLBW, and identification of areas and subgroups that are particularly vulnerable, will allow earlier recognition of potential problems and ultimately lead to improved prevention strategies.
Resumo:
The low predictive power of implied volatility in forecasting the subsequently realized volatility is a well-documented empirical puzzle. As suggested by e.g. Feinstein (1989), Jackwerth and Rubinstein (1996), and Bates (1997), we test whether unrealized expectations of jumps in volatility could explain this phenomenon. Our findings show that expectations of infrequently occurring jumps in volatility are indeed priced in implied volatility. This has two important consequences. First, implied volatility is actually expected to exceed realized volatility over long periods of time only to be greatly less than realized volatility during infrequently occurring periods of very high volatility. Second, the slope coefficient in the classic forecasting regression of realized volatility on implied volatility is very sensitive to the discrepancy between ex ante expected and ex post realized jump frequencies. If the in-sample frequency of positive volatility jumps is lower than ex ante assessed by the market, the classic regression test tends to reject the hypothesis of informational efficiency even if markets are informationally effective.
Resumo:
Bootstrap likelihood ratio tests of cointegration rank are commonly used because they tend to have rejection probabilities that are closer to the nominal level than the rejection probabilities of the correspond- ing asymptotic tests. The eect of bootstrapping the test on its power is largely unknown. We show that a new computationally inexpensive procedure can be applied to the estimation of the power function of the bootstrap test of cointegration rank. The bootstrap test is found to have a power function close to that of the level-adjusted asymp- totic test. The bootstrap test estimates the level-adjusted power of the asymptotic test highly accurately. The bootstrap test may have low power to reject the null hypothesis of cointegration rank zero, or underestimate the cointegration rank. An empirical application to Euribor interest rates is provided as an illustration of the findings.
Resumo:
In genetic epidemiology, population-based disease registries are commonly used to collect genotype or other risk factor information concerning affected subjects and their relatives. This work presents two new approaches for the statistical inference of ascertained data: a conditional and full likelihood approaches for the disease with variable age at onset phenotype using familial data obtained from population-based registry of incident cases. The aim is to obtain statistically reliable estimates of the general population parameters. The statistical analysis of familial data with variable age at onset becomes more complicated when some of the study subjects are non-susceptible, that is to say these subjects never get the disease. A statistical model for a variable age at onset with long-term survivors is proposed for studies of familial aggregation, using latent variable approach, as well as for prospective studies of genetic association studies with candidate genes. In addition, we explore the possibility of a genetic explanation of the observed increase in the incidence of Type 1 diabetes (T1D) in Finland in recent decades and the hypothesis of non-Mendelian transmission of T1D associated genes. Both classical and Bayesian statistical inference were used in the modelling and estimation. Despite the fact that this work contains five studies with different statistical models, they all concern data obtained from nationwide registries of T1D and genetics of T1D. In the analyses of T1D data, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility alleles was not observed. In addition, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility genes did not make a plausible explanation for the increase in T1D incidence in Finland. Instead, the Human Leucocyte Antigen associations with T1D were confirmed in the population-based analysis, which combines T1D registry information, reference sample of healthy subjects and birth cohort information of the Finnish population. Finally, a substantial familial variation in the susceptibility of T1D nephropathy was observed. The presented studies show the benefits of sophisticated statistical modelling to explore risk factors for complex diseases.
Resumo:
Regardless of the existence of antibiotics, infectious diseases are the leading causes of death in the world. Staphylococci cause many infections of varying severity, although they can also exist peacefully in many parts of the human body. Most often Staphylococcus aureus colonises the nose, and that colonisation is considered to be a risk factor for spread of this bacterium. S. aureus is considered to be the most important Staphylococcus species. It poses a challenge to the field of medicine, and one of the most problematic aspects is the drastic increase of the methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) strains in hospitals and community world-wide, including Finland. In addition, most of the clinical coagulase-negative staphylococcus (CNS) isolates express resistance to methicillin. Methicillin-resistance in S. aureus is caused by the mecA gene that encodes an extra penicillin-binding protein (PBP) 2a. The mecA gene is found in a mobile genomic island called staphylococcal chromosome cassette mec (SCCmec). The SCCmec consists of the mec gene and cassette chromosome recombinase (ccr)gene complexes. The areas of the SCCmec element outside the ccr and mec complex are known as the junkyard J regions. So far, eight types of SCCmec(SCCmec I- SCCmec VIII) and a number of variants have been described. The SCCmec island is an acquired element in S. aureus. Lately, it appears that CNS might be the storage place of the SCCmec that aid the S. aureus by providing it with the resistant elements. The SCCmec is known to exist only in the staphylococci. The aim of the present study was to investigate the horizontal transfer of SCCmec between the S. aureus and CNS. One specific aim was to study whether or not some methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) strains are more inclined to receive the SCCmec than others. This was done by comparing the genetic background of clinical MSSA isolates in the health care facilities of the Helsinki and Uusimaa Hospital District in 2001 to the representatives of the epidemic MRSA (EMRSA) genotypes, which have been encountered in Finland during 1992-2004. Majority of the clinical MSSA strains were related to the EMRSA strains. This finding suggests that horizontal transfer of SCCmec from unknown donor(s) to several MSSA background genotypes has occurred in Finland. The molecular characteristics of representative clinical methicillin-resistant S. epidermidis (MRSE) isolates recovered in Finnish hospitals between 1990 and 1998 were also studied, examining their genetic relation to each other and to the internationally recognised MRSE clones as well, so as to ascertain the common traits between the SCCmec elements in MRSE and MRSA. The clinical MRSE strains were genetically related to each other; eleven PFGE types were associated with sequence type ST2 that has been identified world-wide. A single MRSE strain may possess two SCCmec types III and IV, which were recognised among the MRSA strains. Moreover, six months after the onset of an outbreak of MRSA possessing a SCCmec type V in a long-term care facility in Northern Finland (LTCF) in 2003, the SCCmec element of nasally carried methicillin-resistant staphylococci was studied. Among the residents of a LTCF, nasal carriage of MR-CNS was common with extreme diversity of SCCmec types. MRSE was the most prevalent CNS species. Horizontal transfer of SCCmec elements is speculated to be based on the sharing of SCCmec type V between MRSA and MRSE in the same person. Additionally, the SCCmec element of the clinical human S. sciuri isolates was studied. Some of the SCCmec regions were present in S. sciuri and the pls gene was common in it. This finding supports the hypothesis of genetic exchange happening between staphylococcal species. Evaluation of the epidemiology of methicillin-resistant staphylococcal colonisation is necessary in order to understand the apparent emergence of these strains and to develop appropriate control strategies. SCCmec typing is essential for understanding the emergence of MRSA strains from CNS, considering that the MR-CNS may represent the gene pool for the continuous creation of new SCCmec types from which MRSA might originate.
Resumo:
Hereditary leiomyomatosis and renal cell cancer (HLRCC) is a rare, dominantly inherited tumor predisposition syndrome characterized by benign cutaneous and uterine (ULM) leiomyomas, and sometimes renal cell cancer (RCC). A few cases of uterine leiomyosarcoma (ULMS) have also been reported. Mutations in a nuclear gene encoding fumarate hydratase (FH), an enzyme of the mitochondrial tricarboxylic acid cycle (TCA cycle), underlie HLRCC. As a recessive condition, germline mutations in FH predispose to a neurological defect, FH deficiency (FHD). Hereditary paragangliomatosis (HPGL) is a dominant disorder associated with paragangliomas and pheochromocytomas. Inherited mutations in three genes encoding subunits of succinate dehydrogenase (SDH), also a TCA cycle enzyme, predispose to HPGL. Both FH and SDH seem to act as tumor suppressors. One of the consequences of the TCA cycle defect is abnormal activation of HIF1 pathway ( pseudohypoxia ) in the HLRCC and HPGL tumors. HIF1 drives transcription of genes encoding e.g. angiogenetic factors which can facilitate tumor growth. Recently hypoxia/HIF1 has been suggested to be one of the causes of genetic instability as well. One of the aims of this study was to broaden the clinical definers of HLRCC. To determine the cancer risk and to identify possible novel tumor types associated with FH mutations eight Finnish HLRCC/FHD families were extensively evaluated. The extension of the pedigrees and the Finnish Cancer Registry based tumor search yielded genealogical and cancer data of altogether 868 individuals. The standardized incidence ratio-based comparison of HLRCC/FHD family members with general Finnish population revealed 6.5-fold risk for RCC. Moreover, risk for ULMS was highly increased. However, according to the recent and more stringent diagnosis criteria of ULMS many of the HLRCC uterine tumors previously considered malignant are at present diagnosed as atypical or proliferative ULMs (with a low risk of recurrence). Thus, the formation of ULMS (as presently defined) in HLRCC appears to be uncommon. Though increased incidence was not observed, interestingly the genetic analyses suggested possible association of breast and bladder cancer with loss of FH. Moreover, cancer cases were exceptionally detected in an FHD family. Another clinical finding was the conventional (clear cell) type RCC of a young Spanish HLRCC patient. Conventional RCC is distinct from the types previously observed in this syndrome but according to these results, FH mutation may underlie some of young conventional cancer cases. Secondly, the molecular pathway from defective TCA cycle to tumor formation was intended to clarify. Since HLRCC and HPGL tumors display abnormally activated HIF1, the hypothesis on the link between HIF1/hypoxia and genetic instability was of interest to study in HLRCC and HPGL tumor material. HIF1 (a subunit of HIF1) stabilization was confirmed in the majority of the specimens. However, no repression of MSH2, a protein of DNA mismatch repair system, or microsatellite instability (MSI), an indicator of genetic instability, was observed. Accordingly, increased instability seems not to play a role in the tumorigenesis of pseudohypoxic TCA cycle-deficient tumors. Additionally, to study the putative alternative functions of FH, a recently identified alternative FH transcript (FHv) was characterized. FHv was found to contain instead of exon 1, an alternative exon 1b. Differential subcellular distribution, lack of FH enzyme activity, low mRNA expression compared to FH, and induction by cellular stress suggest FHv to have a role distinct from FH, for example in apoptosis or survival. However, the physiological significance of FHv requires further elucidation.
Resumo:
We described the patterns and extent of microsatellite DNA variation in historical and present-day Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) stocks in the Baltic Sea and neighbouring areas, and in European whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus) ecotypes, populations and run-timing types in Finland. Moreover, the amount and pattern of genetic diversity in historical salmon populations before human impact were described, and the proportion of diversity maintained in the present hatchery stocks evaluated. Salmon populations in the Baltic Sea were, on average, significantly less variable than eastern Atlantic populations, and the diversity of landlocked populations (Lakes Vnern, Saimaa, Onega and Ladoga) was in turn significantly lower than that of anadromous salmon populations in the Baltic Sea populations. Within the Baltic Sea, the anadromous populations of Atlantic salmon formed three clear groups, corresponding to the northern (Gulf of Bothnia), eastern (Gulf of Finland and eastern Baltic Main Basin) and southern (western Baltic Main Basin) regions. Based on microsatellite data, three salmon population groups in the Baltic Sea were considered potentially different colonization lineages. In short- and long-term breeding programmes of Atlantic salmon, the average observed rate of loss of alleles was 4.9% and 2.0% per generation and the average rate of loss of heterozygosity was 1.4% and 1% per generation, respectively. When comparing the genetic parameters of stocks before and after hatchery breeding of several successive generations (Rivers Iijoki and Oulujoki), statistically significant changes in allele frequencies were common, while large wild stock in the Teno River has remained temporally very stable over 56 years. Despite the observed losses of genetic diversity in broodstock breeding, a large proportion of the genetic resources of the extirpated stocks are still conserved in the broodstocks. Genetic differentiation among European whitefish ecotypes was generally low, thus giving support to the hypothesis of one native European whitefish species in Fennoscandia. Among the ecotypes, the northern, large sparsely rakered, bottom-dwelling whitefish was the most unique. The known genetic differences in quantitative traits have thus either developed independently of potential phylogenetic lineages, or the lineages have mixed and the quantitative traits of the ecotypes, like gill-raker number, have later changed according to environment and selection pressures. Overall, genetic distances between the anadromous whitefish populations along the Finnish coast, especially in the Bothnian Bay area, were small. Wild whitefish populations studied had slightly higher allelic diversity than hatchery-reared populations in corresponding rivers.
Resumo:
A randomised and population-based screening design with new technologies has been applied to the organised cervical cancer screening programme in Finland. In this experiment the women invited to routine five-yearly screening are individually randomised to be screened with automation-assisted cytology, human papillomavirus (HPV) test or conventional cytology. By using the randomised design, the ultimate aim is to assess and compare the long-term outcomes of the different screening regimens. The primary aim of the current study was to evaluate, based on the material collected during the implementation phase of the Finnish randomised screening experiment, the cross-sectional performance and validity of automation-assisted cytology (Papnet system) and primary HPV DNA testing (Hybrid Capture II assay for 13 oncogenic HPV types) within service screening, in comparison to conventional cytology. The parameters of interest were test positivity rate, histological detection rate, relative sensitivity, relative specificity and positive predictive value. Also, the effect of variation in performance by screening laboratory on age-adjusted cervical cancer incidence was assessed. Based on the cross-sectional results, almost no differences were observed in the performance of conventional and automation-assisted screening. Instead, primary HPV screening found 58% (95% confidence interval 19-109%) more cervical lesions than conventional screening. However, this was mainly due to overrepresentation of mild- and moderate-grade lesions and, thus, is likely to result in overtreatment since a great deal of these lesions would never progress to invasive cancer. Primary screening with an HPV DNA test alone caused substantial loss in specificity in comparison to cytological screening. With the use of cytology triage test, the specificity of HPV screening improved close to the level of conventional cytology. The specificity of primary HPV screening was also increased by increasing the test positivity cutoff from the level recommended for clinical use, but the increase was more modest than the one gained with the use of cytology triage. The performance of the cervical cancer screening programme varied widely between the screening laboratories, but the variation in overall programme effectiveness between respective populations was more marginal from the very beginning of the organised screening activity. Thus, conclusive interpretations on the quality or success of screening should not be based on performance parameters only. In the evaluation of cervical cancer screening the outcome should be selected as closely as possible to the true measure of programme effectiveness, which is the number of invasive cervical cancers and subsequent deaths prevented in the target population. The evaluation of benefits and adverse effects of each new suggested screening technology should be performed before the technology becomes an accepted routine in the existing screening programme. At best, the evaluation is performed randomised, within the population and screening programme in question, which makes the results directly applicable to routine use.
Resumo:
The aims of this Thesis was to evaluate the role of proangiogenic placental growth factor (PlGF), antiangiogenic endostatin and lymphangiogenic vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) -C as well as the receptors vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR) -2 and VEGFR-3 during lung development and in development of lung injury in preterm infants. The studied growth factors were selected due to a close relationship with VEGF-A; a proangiogenic growth factor important in normal lung angiogenesis and lung injury in preterm infants. The thesis study consists of three analyses. I: Lung samples from fetuses, preterm and term infants without lung injury, as well as preterm infants with acute and chronic lung injury were stained by immunohistochemistry for PlGF, endostatin, VEGF-C, VEGFR-2 and VEGFR-3. II: Tracheal aspirate fluid (TAF) was collected in the early postnatal period from a patient population consisting of 59 preterm infants, half developing bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) and half without BPD. PlGF, endostatin and VEGF-C concentrations were measured by commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). III: Cord plasma was collected from very low birth weight (VLBW) (n=92) and term (n=48) infants in conjuncture with birth and endostatin concentrations were measured by ELISA. I: All growth factors and receptors studied were consistently stained in immunohistochemistry throughout development. For endostatin in early respiratory distress syndrome (RDS), no alveolar epithelial or macrophage staining was seen, whereas in late RDS and BPD groups, both alveolar epithelium and macrophages stained positively in approximately half of the samples. VEGFR-2 staining was fairly consistent, except for the fact that capillary endothelial staining in the BPD group was significantly decreased. II: During the first postnatal week in TAF mean PlGF concentrations were stable whereas mean endostatin and VEGF-C concentrations decreased. Higher concentrations of endostatin and VEGF-C correlated with lower birth weight (BW) and associated with administration of antenatal betamethasone. Parameters reflecting prenatal lung inflammation associated with lower PlGF, endostatin and VEGF-C concentrations. A higher mean supplemental fraction of inspired oxygen during the first 2 postnatal weeks (FiO2) correlated with higher endostatin concentrations. III: Endostatin concentrations in term infants were significantly higher than in VLBW infants. In VLBW infants higher endostatin concentrations associated with the development of BPD, this association remained significant after logistic regression analysis. We conclude that PlGF, endostatin and VEGF-C all have a physiological role in the developing lung. Also, the VEGFR-2 expression profile seems to reflect the ongoing differentiation of endothelia during development. Both endostatin and VEGFR-2 seem to be important in the development of BPD. During the latter part of the first postnatal week, preterm infants developing BPD have lower concentrations of VEGF-A in TAF. Our findings of disrupted VEGFR-2 staining in capillary and septal endothelium seen in the BPD group, as well as the increase in endostatin concentrations both in TAF and cord plasma associated with BPD, seem to strengthen the notion that there is a shift in the angiogenic balance towards a more antiangiogenic environment in BPD. These findings support the vascular hypothesis of BPD.
Resumo:
The likelihood ratio test of cointegration rank is the most widely used test for cointegration. Many studies have shown that its finite sample distribution is not well approximated by the limiting distribution. The article introduces and evaluates by Monte Carlo simulation experiments bootstrap and fast double bootstrap (FDB) algorithms for the likelihood ratio test. It finds that the performance of the bootstrap test is very good. The more sophisticated FDB produces a further improvement in cases where the performance of the asymptotic test is very unsatisfactory and the ordinary bootstrap does not work as well as it might. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo simulations provide a number of guidelines on when the bootstrap and FDB tests can be expected to work well. Finally, the tests are applied to US interest rates and international stock prices series. It is found that the asymptotic test tends to overestimate the cointegration rank, while the bootstrap and FDB tests choose the correct cointegration rank.