Digital elevation model error in terrain analysis

Digital elevation models (DEMs) have been an important topic in geography and surveying sciences for decades due to their geomorphological importance as the reference surface for gravita-tion-driven material flow, as well as the wide range of uses and applications. When DEM is used in terrain analysis, for example in automatic drainage basin delineation, errors of the model collect in the analysis results. Investigation of this phenomenon is known as error propagation analysis, which has a direct influence on the decision-making process based on interpretations and applications of terrain analysis. Additionally, it may have an indirect influence on data acquisition and the DEM generation. The focus of the thesis was on the fine toposcale DEMs, which are typically represented in a 5-50m grid and used in the application scale 1:10 000-1:50 000. The thesis presents a three-step framework for investigating error propagation in DEM-based terrain analysis. The framework includes methods for visualising the morphological gross errors of DEMs, exploring the statistical and spatial characteristics of the DEM error, making analytical and simulation-based error propagation analysis and interpreting the error propagation analysis results. The DEM error model was built using geostatistical methods. The results show that appropriate and exhaustive reporting of various aspects of fine toposcale DEM error is a complex task. This is due to the high number of outliers in the error distribution and morphological gross errors, which are detectable with presented visualisation methods. In ad-dition, the use of global characterisation of DEM error is a gross generalisation of reality due to the small extent of the areas in which the decision of stationarity is not violated. This was shown using exhaustive high-quality reference DEM based on airborne laser scanning and local semivariogram analysis. The error propagation analysis revealed that, as expected, an increase in the DEM vertical error will increase the error in surface derivatives. However, contrary to expectations, the spatial au-tocorrelation of the model appears to have varying effects on the error propagation analysis depend-ing on the application. The use of a spatially uncorrelated DEM error model has been considered as a 'worst-case scenario', but this opinion is now challenged because none of the DEM derivatives investigated in the study had maximum variation with spatially uncorrelated random error. Sig-nificant performance improvement was achieved in simulation-based error propagation analysis by applying process convolution in generating realisations of the DEM error model. In addition, typology of uncertainty in drainage basin delineations is presented.

Feasibility of assimilating ASCAT surface winds into a Limited Area Model

Sea-surface wind observations of previous generation scatterometers have been successfully assimilated into Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Impact studies conducted with these assimilation implementations have shown a distinct improvement to model analysis and forecast accuracies. The Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), flown on Metop-A, offers an improved sea-surface wind accuracy and better data coverage when compared to the previous generation scatterometers. Five individual case studies are carried out. The effect of including ASCAT data into High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) assimilation system (4D-Var) is tested to be neutral-positive for situations with general flow direction from the Atlantic Ocean. For northerly flow regimes the effect is negative. This is later discussed to be caused by problems involving modeling northern flows, and also due to the lack of a suitable verification method. Suggestions and an example of an improved verification method is presented later on. A closer examination of a polar low evolution is also shown. It is found that the ASCAT assimilation scheme improves forecast of the initial evolution of the polar low, but the model advects the strong low pressure centre too fast eastward. Finally, the flaws of the implementation are found small and implementing the ASCAT assimilation scheme into the operational HIRLAM suite is feasible, but longer time period validation is still required.

Digital Photography in the Diagnosis and Follow-up of Ocular Diseases

Purpose: The aim of the present study was to develop and test new digital imaging equipment and methods for diagnosis and follow-up of ocular diseases. Methods: The whole material comprised 398 subjects (469 examined eyes), including 241 patients with melanocytic choroidal tumours, 56 patients with melanocytic iris tumours, 42 patients with diabetes, a 52-year old patient with chronic phase of VKH disease, a 30-year old patient with an old blunt eye injury, and 57 normal healthy subjects. Digital 50° (Topcon TRC 50 IA) and 45° (Canon CR6-45NM) fundus cameras, a new handheld digital colour videocamera for eye examinations (MediTell), a new subtraction method using the Topcon Image Net Program (Topcon corporation, Tokyo, Japan), a new method for digital IRT imaging of the iris we developed, and Zeiss photoslitlamp with a digital camera body were used for digital imaging. Results: Digital 50° red-free imaging had a sensitivity of 97.7% and two-field 45° and 50° colour imaging a sensitivity of 88.9-94%. The specificity of the digital 45°-50° imaging modalities was 98.9-100% versus the reference standard and ungradeable images that were 1.2-1.6%. By using the handheld digital colour video camera only, the optic disc and central fundus located inside 20° from the fovea could be recorded with a sensitivity of 6.9% for detection of at least mild NPDR when compared with the reference standard. Comparative use of digital colour, red-free, and red light imaging showed 85.7% sensitivity, 99% specificity, and 98.2 % exact agreement versus the reference standard in differentiation of small choroidal melanoma from pseudomelanoma. The new subtraction method showed growth in four of 94 melanocytic tumours (4.3%) during a mean ±SD follow-up of 23 ± 11 months. The new digital IRT imaging of the iris showed the sphincter muscle and radial contraction folds of Schwalbe in the pupillary zone and radial structural folds of Schwalbe and circular contraction furrows in the ciliary zone of the iris. The 52-year-old patient with a chronic phase of VKH disease showed extensive atrophy and occasional pigment clumps in the iris stroma, detachment of the ciliary body with severe ocular hypotony, and shallow retinal detachment of the posterior pole in both eyes. Infrared transillumination imaging and fluorescein angiographic findings of the iris showed that IR translucence (p=0.53), complete masking of fluorescence (p=0.69), presence of disorganized vessels (p=0.32), and fluorescein leakage (p=1.0) at the site of the lesion did not differentiate an iris nevus from a melanoma. Conclusions: Digital 50° red-free and two-field 50° or 45° colour imaging were suitable for DR screening, whereas the handheld digital video camera did not fulfill the needs of DR screening. Comparative use of digital colour, red-free and red light imaging was a suitable method in the differentiation of small choroidal melanoma from different pseudomelanomas. The subtraction method may reveal early growth of the melanocytic choroidal tumours. Digital IRT imaging may be used to study changes of the stroma and posterior surface of the iris in various diseases of the uvea. It contributed to the revealment of iris atrophy and serous detachment of the ciliary body with ocular hypotony together with the shallow retinal detachment of the posterior pole as new findings of the chronic phase of VKH disease. Infrared translucence and angiographic findings are useful in differential diagnosis of melanocytic iris tumours, but they cannot be used to determine if the lesion is benign or malignant.

On the behaviour of some physical parameterization methods in high-resolution numerical weather prediction models

Modern-day weather forecasting is highly dependent on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models as the main data source. The evolving state of the atmosphere with time can be numerically predicted by solving a set of hydrodynamic equations, if the initial state is known. However, such a modelling approach always contains approximations that by and large depend on the purpose of use and resolution of the models. Present-day NWP systems operate with horizontal model resolutions in the range from about 40 km to 10 km. Recently, the aim has been to reach operationally to scales of 1 4 km. This requires less approximations in the model equations, more complex treatment of physical processes and, furthermore, more computing power. This thesis concentrates on the physical parameterization methods used in high-resolution NWP models. The main emphasis is on the validation of the grid-size-dependent convection parameterization in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) and on a comprehensive intercomparison of radiative-flux parameterizations. In addition, the problems related to wind prediction near the coastline are addressed with high-resolution meso-scale models. The grid-size-dependent convection parameterization is clearly beneficial for NWP models operating with a dense grid. Results show that the current convection scheme in HIRLAM is still applicable down to a 5.6 km grid size. However, with further improved model resolution, the tendency of the model to overestimate strong precipitation intensities increases in all the experiment runs. For the clear-sky longwave radiation parameterization, schemes used in NWP-models provide much better results in comparison with simple empirical schemes. On the other hand, for the shortwave part of the spectrum, the empirical schemes are more competitive for producing fairly accurate surface fluxes. Overall, even the complex radiation parameterization schemes used in NWP-models seem to be slightly too transparent for both long- and shortwave radiation in clear-sky conditions. For cloudy conditions, simple cloud correction functions are tested. In case of longwave radiation, the empirical cloud correction methods provide rather accurate results, whereas for shortwave radiation the benefit is only marginal. Idealised high-resolution two-dimensional meso-scale model experiments suggest that the reason for the observed formation of the afternoon low level jet (LLJ) over the Gulf of Finland is an inertial oscillation mechanism, when the large-scale flow is from the south-east or west directions. The LLJ is further enhanced by the sea-breeze circulation. A three-dimensional HIRLAM experiment, with a 7.7 km grid size, is able to generate a similar LLJ flow structure as suggested by the 2D-experiments and observations. It is also pointed out that improved model resolution does not necessary lead to better wind forecasts in the statistical sense. In nested systems, the quality of the large-scale host model is really important, especially if the inner meso-scale model domain is small.

Studies on orographic effects in a numerical weather prediction model

Numerical models, used for atmospheric research, weather prediction and climate simulation, describe the state of the atmosphere over the heterogeneous surface of the Earth. Several fundamental properties of atmospheric models depend on orography, i.e. on the average elevation of land over a model area. The higher is the models' resolution, the more the details of orography directly influence the simulated atmospheric processes. This sets new requirements for the accuracy of the model formulations with respect to the spatially varying orography. Orography is always averaged, representing the surface elevation within the horizontal resolution of the model. In order to remove the smallest scales and steepest slopes, the continuous spectrum of orography is normally filtered (truncated) even more, typically beyond a few gridlengths of the model. This means, that in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, there will always be subgridscale orography effects, which cannot be explicitly resolved by numerical integration of the basic equations, but require parametrization. In the subgrid-scale, different physical processes contribute in different scales. The parametrized processes interact with the resolved-scale processes and with each other. This study contributes to building of a consistent, scale-dependent system of orography-related parametrizations for the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The system comprises schemes for handling the effects of mesoscale (MSO) and small-scale (SSO) orographic effects on the simulated flow and a scheme of orographic effects on the surface-level radiation fluxes. Representation of orography, scale-dependencies of the simulated processes and interactions between the parametrized and resolved processes are discussed. From the high-resolution digital elevation data, orographic parameters are derived for both momentum and radiation flux parametrizations. Tools for diagnostics and validation are developed and presented. The parametrization schemes applied, developed and validated in this study, are currently being implemented into the reference version of HIRLAM.

Factors controlling the surface energy budget over snow and ice

Polar Regions are an energy sink of the Earth system, as the Sun rays do not reach the Poles for half of the year, and hit them only at very low angles for the other half of the year. In summer, solar radiation is the dominant energy source for the Polar areas, therefore even small changes in the surface albedo strongly affect the surface energy balance and, thus, the speed and amount of snow and ice melting. In winter, the main heat sources for the atmosphere are the cyclones approaching from lower latitudes, and the atmosphere-surface heat transfer takes place through turbulent mixing and longwave radiation, the latter dominated by clouds. The aim of this thesis is to improve the knowledge about the surface and atmospheric processes that control the surface energy budget over snow and ice, with particular focus on albedo during the spring and summer seasons, on horizontal advection of heat, cloud longwave forcing, and turbulent mixing during the winter season. The critical importance of a correct albedo representation in models is illustrated through the analysis of the causes for the errors in the surface and near-surface air temperature produced in a short-range numerical weather forecast by the HIRLAM model. Then, the daily and seasonal variability of snow and ice albedo have been examined by analysing field measurements of albedo, carried out in different environments. On the basis of the data analysis, simple albedo parameterizations have been derived, which can be implemented into thermodynamic sea ice models, as well as numerical weather prediction and climate models. Field measurements of radiation and turbulent fluxes over the Bay of Bothnia (Baltic Sea) also allowed examining the impact of a large albedo change during the melting season on surface energy and ice mass budgets. When high contrasts in surface albedo are present, as in the case of snow covered areas next to open water, the effect of the surface albedo heterogeneity on the downwelling solar irradiance under overcast condition is very significant, although it is usually not accounted for in single column radiative transfer calculations. To account for this effect, an effective albedo parameterization based on three-dimensional Monte Carlo radiative transfer calculations has been developed. To test a potentially relevant application of the effective albedo parameterization, its performance in the ground-based retrieval of cloud optical depth was illustrated. Finally, the factors causing the large variations of the surface and near-surface temperatures over the Central Arctic during winter were examined. The relative importance of cloud radiative forcing, turbulent mixing, and lateral heat advection on the Arctic surface temperature were quantified through the analysis of direct observations from Russian drifting ice stations, with the lateral heat advection calculated from reanalysis products.

Examining and Modeling the Dynamics of the Volatility Surface

The objective of this paper is to investigate and model the characteristics of the prevailing volatility smiles and surfaces on the DAX- and ESX-index options markets. Continuing on the trend of Implied Volatility Functions, the Standardized Log-Moneyness model is introduced and fitted to historical data. The model replaces the constant volatility parameter of the Black & Scholes pricing model with a matrix of volatilities with respect to moneyness and maturity and is tested out-of-sample. Considering the dynamics, the results show support for the hypotheses put forward in this study, implying that the smile increases in magnitude when maturity and ATM volatility decreases and that there is a negative/positive correlation between a change in the underlying asset/time to maturity and implied ATM volatility. Further, the Standardized Log-Moneyness model indicates an improvement to pricing accuracy compared to previous Implied Volatility Function models, however indicating that the parameters of the models are to be re-estimated continuously for the models to fully capture the changing dynamics of the volatility smiles.