Temporal acuity in developmental dyslexia across the life span : Tactile, auditory, visual, and crossmodal estimations

Taustaa Kehityksellinen dysleksia (lukivaikeus) on erityinen lukemaan oppimisen vaikeus, johon liittyy usein myös vaikeuksia kirjoittamaan oppimisessa. Lukivaikeuden oletetaan useissa tapauksissa johtuvan vaikeudesta käsitellä kielen äännerakenteita (fonologinen prosessointi). Tämä poikkeavuus voi olla joko lukivaikeuden perimmäinen syy tai vaihtoehtoisesti ongelmat äänteiden käsittelyssä voivat heijastaa jotain vielä perustavamman tason vaikeutta. Eräs tällainen ehdotettu perustavan tasoin syy on poikkeavuus aistien toiminnoissa, erityisesti aistien aikatarkkuudessa. Aikatarkkuudella tarkoitetaan kykyä ja rajoja siinä, kuinka nopeasti esitettyä aistitiedon virtaa henkilö kykenee vastaanottamaan ja käsittelemään. Monet arjen toiminnot lukemisen rinnalla edellyttävät aistien erittäin tarkkaa ajallista erottelukykyä (esimerkiksi kuulo puheen ymmärtämisessä, tunto pintamateriaalin tunnistamisessa). Aikatarkkuusvaikeuksien esiintyvyyttä lukivaikeudessa on tutkittu aiemminkin, mutta yksimielisyyteen ei ole päästy siitä, onko kaikilla lukivaikeuksisilla näitä ongelmia tai mihin aisteihin vaikeudet mahdollisesti rajoittuvat. Myöskään ei tiedetä, havaitaanko aikatarkkuuden ongelmia kaiken ikäisillä lukivaikeuksisilla vai vaihteleeko mahdollinen ongelmien kuva iän mukana. Lisäksi on epäselvää, kuinka aikatarkkuuden ongelmat itseasiassa ovat yhteydessä kielen käsittelyn ja varsinaisen lukemisen vaikeuksiin. Tutkimussarjan aihe Tässä tutkimussarjassa aikatarkkuutta tutkittiin kolmessa yksittäisessä aistissa, joita olivat tunto, näkö ja kuulo, sekä kolmessa aistien välisessä yhdistelmässä, joita olivat audiotaktiilinen (kuulo-tunto), visuotaktiilinen (näkö-tunto) ja audiovisuaalinen (näkö-kuulo). Aikatarkkuutta arvioitiin kahdella eri menetelmällä, jotta saataisiin lisää tietoa siitä, missä tietyssä aikatarkkuuden osa-alueessa lukivaikeuksisilla mahdollisesti on vaikeuksia. Ensimmäisessä tehtävässä tutkittavan tuli arvioida, ovatko esitetyt ei-kielelliset ärsykkeet samanaikaisia vai eriaikaisia. Toisessa tehtävässä koehenkilön tuli arvioida esitettyjen ei-kielellisten ärsykkeiden esitysjärjestys. Molemmissa tehtävissä määriteltiin millisekuntitasolla (sekunnin tuhannesosa) se esitysnopeus, jolla koehenkilö kykeni arvioimaan ärsykkeiden ajalliset suhteet oikein. Englanninkielinen demonstraatio aikatarkkuustehtävistä löytyy internetistä (http://www.helsinki.fi/hum/ylpsy/neuropsy). Itse aikatarkkuustehtävien lisäksi tutkimussarjassa arvioitiin tutkimushenkilöiden päättelykykyä, kielellisiä toimintoja ja lukemista. Tutkimushenkilöt Tutkimuksiin osallistui 53 lukivaikeuksista ja 66 sujuvaa lukijaa, jotka oli jaettu kolmeen pääikäryhmään: lapset (8-12 vuotta), nuoret aikuiset (20-36 vuotta) ja ikääntyneemmät aikuiset (20-59 vuotta). Ikääntyneempien aikuisten ryhmä oli edelleen jaettu ikävuosikymmenluokkiin, mikä mahdollisti sen tutkimisen, vaikuttaako lisääntyvä aikuisikä lukivaikeuksisten aikatarkkuuteen (20-29, 30-39, 40-49 ja 50-59 -vuotiaat). Tutkimussarjan tulokset Aikatarkkuuden ongelmat lukivaikeuksisilla olivat yleistyneitä yli iän, aistien ja tehtävien Lukivaikeuksiset kaikissa pääikäryhmissä (lapset, nuoret aikuiset, ikääntyneemmän aikuiset) tarvitsivat samanikäisiä sujuvia lukijoita hitaamman esitystahdin, jotta he kykenivät arvioimaan ei-kielellisten ärsykkeiden ajallisen esitystavan oikein. Tämä aikatarkkuuden ongelma havaittiin lukivaikeuksisilla kaikissa aisteissa (tunto, kuulo, näkö) ja niiden yhdistelmissä (audiotaktiilinen, visuotaktiilinen, audiovisuaalinen). Lukivaikeuksisten aikatarkkuusongelmat ilmenivät edelleen molemmissa tehtävätyypeissä (samanaikaisuuden ja järjestyksen arvioinnissa). Aikatarkkuus ja sen ongelmat olivat yhteydessä äänteiden käsittelyyn Aikatarkkuus oli yhteydessä äänteiden käsittelykykyyn (fonologiseen prosessointiin), niin lapsilla kuin aikuisillakin, kaikissa aisteissa, niiden yhdistelmissä ja tehtävätyypeissä. Yhteys ei-kielellisen aikatarkkuuden ja kielellisten toimintojen välillä oli kuitenkin selkeämpi lukivaikeuksisilla kuin sujuvilla lukijoilla. Tämä tarkoittaa, että etenkin lukivaikeuksisilla ryhmätason huono aikatarkkuus oli yhteydessä huonoon äänteiden käsittelyyn (fonologiseen prosessointiin) ja päinvastoin. Suoraa yhteyttä lukemisen ja aikatarkkuuden välillä ei kuitenkaan havaittu. Lisääntyvä aikuisikä heikensi lukivaikeuksisten aikatarkkuutta suhteettoman paljon Tiedonkäsittelyn nopeuden on toistuvasti osoitettu hidastuvan normaalissa ikääntymisessä. Lisääntyvä aikuisikä (20-59 -vuotiailla) heikensikin sekä sujuvien että lukivaikeuksisten aikatarkkuutta. Toisin sanoen, mitä iäkkäämmästä aikuisesta oli kysymys, sitä hitaammin hänelle tuli esittää ärsykkeet, jotta hän kykeni arvioimaan niiden ajalliset suhteet oikein. Tämä ikään liittyvä tavanomainen hidastuminen oli kuitenkin yllättäen suhteettoman nopeaa lukivaikeuksisilla. Toisin sanoen, jo nuorilla lukivaikeuksisilla havaittu aikatarkkuuden vaikeus (ryhmäero verrattuna sujuviin lukijoihin) ei pysynyt saman suuruisena, vaan ryhmien ero kasvoi aikuisiän lisääntyessä. Tulosten merkitys Lukivaikeuden osoitettiin tässä tutkimussarjassa olevan yhteydessä yleistyneeseen vaikeuteen käsitellä ajassa nopeasti muuttuvaa ei-kielellistä aistitietoa (yli aistien ja niiden yhdistelmien, tehtävätyyppien, tutkittavien iän). Tämä osoittaa, että lukivaikeus ei ole ongelma, joka rajoittuu vain kielellisen materiaalin käsittelyn vaikeuksiin (äänteiden käsittely, lukeminen, kirjoittaminen). Nyt havaitut vaikeudet eivät myöskään rajoittuneet vain niihin aisteihin, jotka selkeimmin liittyvät lukemiseen (näkö) ja puhuttuun kieleen (kuulo); Ongelmia esiintyi myös muissa aisteissa (tunto). Lukivaikeuksisten lukijoiden ryhmätasolla havaittu aikatarkkuuden ongelma ei kuitenkaan heijastunut yksilötasolle; Jokainen lukivaikeuksinen ei ollut huono aikatarkkuustehtävissä. Näin ollen ei siis voida väittää, että kaikkien lukivaikeuksisten äänteiden käsittelyn tai lukemaan oppimisen vaikeudet voisivat selittyä aistien toimintojen poikkeavuudella. Aikatarkkuuden ongelmat eivät olleet yhteydessä varsinaiseen lukemiseen. Sekä lukivaikeuksisilla lapsilla että aikuisilla todettiin kuitenkin selkeä yhteys aikatarkkuuden ongelmien ja lukemaan oppimisen keskeisen ennakkoehdon, fonologisen prosessoinnin, välillä. Saattaa siis olla, että synnynnäinen aistien toimintojen poikkeavuus vaikuttaa yksilön suoriutumiseen jo ennen varsinaista lukemaan oppimista, kun ne taidot kehittyvät (fonologinen prosessointi), joille myöhempi lukemaan oppiminen perustuu. Ikäännyttäessä havaittu lukivaikeuksisten suhteettoman nopea aikatarkkuuden heikkeneminen osoittaa, että lukivaikeus ei voi olla ongelma, joka koskee vain lapsuusikää, tai vaikeus, joka johtuu vain kehityksen viivästymästä joka kurottaisiin iän myötä umpeen. Tulosten ymmärtämiseksi onkin muistettava kaksi seikkaa. Lukivaikeus on ensinnäkin yhdistetty synnynnäisiin, pieniin, poikkeavuuksiin aivojen rakenteissa ja toiminnoissa. Toisaalta tavanomaiseen ikääntymiseen liittyy se, että aivot kykenevät yhä huonommin korjaamaan ja kiertämään (kompensoimaan) pieniä vaurioita. Tämän perusteella tutkimussarjan tuloksista voidaan päätellä, että lukivaikeuksisten jo synnynnäisesti heikentyneet aivojen kompensointimahdollisuudet eivät ole yhtä tehokkaita puskuroimaan ikääntymisen tavanomaisia vaikutuksia kuin sujuvilla lukijoilla. Yllättävää kuitenkin on, että tämä korostunut heikkeneminen havaittiin jo suhteellisen nuorilla, työikäisillä, lukivaikeuksisilla, ennen 60 ikävuotta. Samanlaista ikäännyttäessä korostuvaa vaikeutta ei lukivaikeuksilla kuitenkaan havaittu päättelyssä, kielellisissä toiminnoissa tai itse lukemisessa. Vaikuttaakin siis siltä, että ne toiminnot, joita on harjaannutettu aktiivisesti, eivät heikkene kasvavan aikuisiän myötä yhtä suhteettomasti. Alkuperäiset artikkelit Laasonen M, Tomma-Halme J, Lahti-Nuuttila P, Service E, and Virsu V (2000) Rate of information segregation in developmentally dyslexic children, Brain and Language, 75(1), 66-81. Laasonen M, Service E, and Virsu V (2001) Temporal order and processing acuity of visual, auditory, and tactile perception in developmentally dyslexic young adults, Cognitive, Affective, and Behavioral Neuroscience, 1(4), 394-410. Laasonen M, Service E, and Virsu V (2002) Crossmodal temporal order and processing acuity in developmentally dyslexic young adults, Brain and Language, 80(3), 340-354. Laasonen M, Lahti-Nuuttila P, and Virsu V (2002) Developmentally impaired processing speed decreases more than normally with age, NeuroReport, 13(9), 1111-1113.

Developmental origins of psychological vulnerability factors for mental disorders

Premature birth and associated small body size are known to affect health over the life course. Moreover, compelling evidence suggests that birth size throughout its whole range of variation is inversely associated with risk for cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes in subsequent life. To explain these findings, the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD) model has been introduced. Within this framework, restricted physical growth is, to a large extent, considered either a product of harmful environmental influences, such as suboptimal nutrition and alterations in the foetal hormonal milieu, or an adaptive reaction to the environment. Whether inverse associations exist between body size at birth and psychological vulnerability factors for mental disorders is poorly known. Thus, the aim of this thesis was to study in three large prospective cohorts whether prenatal and postnatal physical growth, across the whole range of variation, is associated with subsequent temperament/personality traits and psychological symptoms that are considered vulnerability factors for mental disorders. Weight and length at birth in full term infants showed quadratic associations with the temperamental trait of harm avoidance (Study I). The highest scores were characteristic of the smallest individuals, followed by the heaviest/longest. Linear associations between birth size and psychological outcomes were found such that lower weight and thinness at birth predicted more pronounced trait anxiety in late adulthood (Study II); lower birth weight, placental size, and head circumference at 12 months predicted a more pronounced positive schitzotypal trait in women (Study III); and thinness and smaller head circumference at birth associated with symptoms of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in children who were born at term (Study IV). These associations occured across the whole variation in birth size and after adjusting for several confounders. With respect to growth after birth, individuals with high trait anxiety scores in late adulthood were lighter in weight and thinner in infancy, and gained weight more rapidly between 7 and 11 years of age, but weighed less and were shorter in late adulthood in relation to weight and height measured at 11 years of age (Study II). These results suggest that a suboptimal prenatal environment reflected in smaller birth size may affect a variety of psychological vulnerability factors for mental disorders, such as the temperamental trait of harm avoidance, trait anxiety, schizotypal traits, and symptoms of ADHD. The smaller the birth size across the whole range of variation, the more pronounced were these psychological vulnerability factors. Moreover, some of these outcomes, such as trait anxiety, were also predicted by patterns of growth after birth. The findings are concordant with the DOHaD model, and emphasise the importance of prenatal factors in the aetiology of not only mental disorders but also their psychological vulnerability factors.

Developmental, functional brain imaging and electrophysiological evidence of visual and auditory working memory

Intact function of working memory (WM) is essential for children and adults to cope with every day life. Children with deficits in WM mechanisms have learning difficulties that are often accompanied by behavioral problems. The neural processes subserving WM, and brain structures underlying this system, continue to develop during childhood till adolescence and young adulthood. With functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) it is possible to investigate the organization and development of WM. The present thesis aimed to investigate, using behavioral and neuroimaging methods, whether mnemonic processing of spatial and nonspatial visual information is segregated in the developing and mature human brain. A further aim in this research was to investigate the organization and development of audiospatial and visuospatial information processing in WM. The behavioral results showed that spatial and nonspatial visual WM processing is segregated in the adult brain. The fMRI result in children suggested that memory load related processing of spatial and nonspatial visual information engages common cortical networks, whereas selective attention to either type of stimuli recruits partially segregated areas in the frontal, parietal and occipital cortices. Deactivation mechanisms that are important in the performance of WM tasks in adults are already operational in healthy school-aged children. Electrophysiological evidence suggested segregated mnemonic processing of visual and auditory location information. The results of the development of audiospatial and visuospatial WM demonstrate that WM performance improves with age, suggesting functional maturation of underlying cognitive processes and brain areas. The development of the performance of spatial WM tasks follows a different time course in boys and girls indicating a larger degree of immaturity in the male than female WM systems. Furthermore, the differences in mastering auditory and visual WM tasks may indicate that visual WM reaches functional maturity earlier than the corresponding auditory system. Spatial WM deficits may underlie some learning difficulties and behavioral problems related to impulsivity, difficulties in concentration, and hyperactivity. Alternatively, anxiety or depressive symptoms may affect WM function and the ability to concentrate, being thus the primary cause of poor academic achievement in children.

Time to rest : Signals in shoot apex developmental transitions underlying dormancy

Vuodenajat rytmittävät monivuotisten kasvien elämää pohjoisella pallonpuoliskolla, jolla varmin merkki lähestyvästä talvikaudesta on asteittain lyhenevä päivänpituus. Kun päivänpituus on lyhentynyt tiettyyn raja-arvoon saakka, kasvu hiipuu ja kasvin kehityksessä tapahtuu suuria muutoksia. Väitöskirjatyössäni tutkittiin mekanismeja, jotka liittyvät pituuskasvun päättymiseen, silmujen lepotilan kehittymiseen ja kärkisilmun muodostumiseen hybridihaavan ja koivuntaimilla lyhyen päivänpituuden seurauksena kasvihuoneolosuhteissa. Vain lepotilaiset silmut selviytyvät luonnossa ankaran talvikauden yli, joten etenkin lepotilan kehittymisen tutkiminen on keskeistä pyrittäessä selvittämään monivuotisille kasveille tyypillisen kasvutavan mekanismeja. Jo pitkään on tiedetty, että täysikasvuiset lehdet vastaanottavat tiedon päivänpituudesta ja lähettävät signaaleja varren johtojänteissä ylöspäin kohti kasvin kärkiosaa. Sen sijaan varren kärjen ja kärkikasvupisteen roolia lepotilan kehittymisessä on selvitetty vain vähän. Kuitenkin juuri kärkikasvupisteen selviytyminen vuodesta toiseen on tärkeää, koska sen jakautumiskykyiset solukot tuottavat kasvin maanpäälliset osat. Tässä työssä tehdyissä varttamiskokeissa osoitettiin, että varren kärki ei ainoastaan vastaanota signaaleja lehdistä ja ajoita toimintaansa niiden mukaan, vaan myös kärjellä itsellään on aktiivinen rooli lepotilan kehittymisessä. Erityisesti kiinnitettiin huomiota kärkikasvupisteen eri alueiden, ns. apikaalimeristeemin ja rib-meristeemin erilaisiin tehtäviin ja pääteltiin, että molemmat vaikuttavat lepotilan kehittymiseen. Kokeissa käytettiin normaalien hybridihaapojen lisäksi siirtogeenisiä hybridihaapoja, jotka eivät lopeta kasvuaan lyhyt päivä –olosuhteissa. Siirtogeeniset hybridihaavat ilmensivät voimakkaasti fytokromi A -nimistä valon vastaanottajamolekyyliä rib-meristeemin alueella, mikä saattoi osaltaan vaikuttaa poikkeavaan pituuskasvukäyttäytymiseen. Myös useiden lepotilan kehittymiseen liittyvien geenien ilmenemisessä havaittiin poikkeavuuksia verrattuna ei-siirtogeenisiin kontrolleihin, joiden silmuissa kehittyi lepotila lyhyt päivä –altistuksen seurauksena. Väitöskirjatyössäni havaittiin, että myös kaasumainen kasvihormoni etyleeni toimii viestinvälittäjänä silmujen lepotilan kehittymisessä ja vaikuttaa etenkin lepotilan oikeaan ajoittumiseen. Etyleenillä huomattiin olevan määräävä rooli päätesilmun muodostumisessa: siirtogeeniset koivut, jotka eivät aisti etyleeniä, eivät muodostaneet päätesilmua. Silti siirtogeeniset koivut vaipuivat lepotilaan, joskin myöhemmin kuin ei-siirtogeeniset kontrollit. Tämän perusteella todettiin, että lepotilan ja päätesilmun kehittyminen ovat erillisiä kehitystapahtumia, vaikka ne saattavatkin ajoittua osaksi päällekkäin.

Stress and developmental responses in Arabidopsis thaliana: regulation through the transcription factor-interacting protein RCD1

Plants constantly face adverse environmental conditions, such as drought or extreme temperatures that threaten their survival. They demonstrate astonishing metabolic flexibility in overcoming these challenges and one of the key responses to stresses is changes in gene expression leading to alterations in cellular functions. This is brought about by an intricate network of transcription factors and associated regulatory proteins. Protein-protein interactions and post-translational modifications are important steps in this control system along with carefully regulated degradation of signaling proteins. This work concentrates on the RADICAL-INDUCED CELL DEATH1 (RCD1) protein which is an important regulator of abiotic stress-related and developmental responses in Arabidopsis thaliana. Plants lacking this protein function display pleiotropic phenotypes including sensitivity to apoplastic reactive oxygen species (ROS) and salt, ultraviolet B (UV-B) and paraquat tolerance, early flowering and senescence. Additionally, the mutant plants overproduce nitric oxide, have alterations in their responses to several plant hormones and perturbations in gene expression profiles. The RCD1 gene is transcriptionally unresponsive to environmental signals and the regulation of the protein function is likely to happen post-translationally. RCD1 belongs to a small protein family and, together with its closest homolog SRO1, contains three distinguishable domains: In the N-terminus, there is a WWE domain followed by a poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase-like domain which, despite sequence conservation, does not seem to be functional. The C-terminus of RCD1 contains a novel domain called RST. It is present in RCD1-like proteins throughout the plant kingdom and is able to mediate physical interactions with multiple transcription factors. In conclusion, RCD1 is a key point of signal integration that links ROS-mediated cues to transcriptional regulation by yet unidentified means, which are likely to include post-translational mechanisms. The identification of RCD1-interacting transcription factors, most of whose functions are still unknown, opens new avenues for studies on plant stress as well as developmental responses.

Total hip arthroplasty in young patients : with special references to patients under 55 years of age and to patients with developmental dysplasia of the hip

There is an ongoing controversy as to which methods in total hip arthroplasty (THA) could provide young patients with best long-term results. THA is an especially demanding operation in patients with severely dysplastic hips. The optimal surgical treatment for these patients also remains controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term survival of THA in young patients (<55 years at the time of the primary operation) on a nation-wide level, and to analyze the long-term clinical and radio-graphical outcome of uncemented THA in patients with severely dysplastic joints. Survival of 4661 primary THAs performed for primary osteoarthritis (OA), 2557 primary THAs per-formed for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and modern uncemented THA designs performed for primary OA in young patients, were analysed from the Finnish Arthroplasty Register. A total of 68 THAs were per-formed in 56 consecutive patients with high congenital hip dislocation between 1989-1994, and 68 THAs were performed in 59 consecutive patients with severely dysplastic hips and a previous Schanz osteotomy of the femur between 1988-1995 at the Orton Orthopaedic Hospital, Helsinki, Finland. These patients underwent a detailed physical and radiographical evaluation at a mean of 12.3 years and 13.0 years postoperatively, respectively. The risk of stem revision due to aseptic loosening in young patients with primary OA was higher for cemented stems than for proximally porous-coated or HA-coated uncemented stems implanted over the 1991-2001 period. There was no difference in the risk of revision between all-poly cemented-cups and press-fit porous-coated uncemented cups implanted during the same period, when the end point was defined as any revision (including exchange of liner). All uncemented stem designs studied in young patients with primary OA had >90% survival rates at 10 years. The Biomet Bi-Metric stem had a 95% (95% CI 93-97) survival rate even at 15 years. When the end point was defined as any revision, 10 year survival rates of all uncemented cup designs except the Harris-Galante II decreased to <80%. In young patients with RA, the risk of stem revision due to aseptic loosening was higher with cemented stems than with proximally porous-coated uncemented stems. In contrast, the risk of cup revision was higher for all uncemented cup concepts than for all-poly cemented cups with any type of cup revision as the end point. The Harris hip score increased significantly (p<0.001) both in patients with high con-genital hip dislocation and in patients with severely dysplastic hips and a previous Schanz osteotomy, treated with uncemented THA. There was a negative Trendelenburg sign in 92% and in 88% of hips, respectively. There were 12 (18%) and 15 (22%) perioperative complications. The rate of survival for the CDH femoral components, with revision due to aseptic loosening as the end point, was 98% (95% CI 97-100) at 10 years in patients with high hip dislocation and 92% (95% CI, 86-99) at 14 years in patients with a previous Schanz osteotomy. The rate of survival for press-fit, porous-coated acetabular components, with revision due to aseptic loosening as the end point, was 95% (95% CI 89-100) at 10 years in patients with high hip dislocation, and 98% (95% CI 89-100) in patients with a previous Schanz osteotomy. When revision of the cup for any reason was defined as the end point, 10 year sur-vival rates declined to 88% (95% CI 81-95) and to 69% (95% CI, 56-82), respectively. For young patients with primary OA, uncemented proximally circumferentially porous- and HA-coated stems are the implants of choice. However, survival rates of modern uncemented cups are no better than that of all-poly cemented cups. Uncemented proximally circumferentially porous-coated stems and cemented all-poly cups are currently the implants of choice for young patients with RA. Uncemented THA, with placement of the cup at the level of the true acetabulum, distal advancement of the greater trochanter and femoral shortening osteotomy provided patients with high congenital hip dislocation good long-term outcomes. Most of the patients with severely dysplastic hips and a previous Schanz osteotomy can be successfully treated with the same method. However, the subtrochanteric segmental shortening with angular correction gives better leg length correction for the patients with a previous low-seated unilateral Schanz osteotomy.

Studies on Binary Time Series Models with Applications to Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance

This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.

Developmental origins of physiological stress reactivity

The model of developmental origins of health and disease proposes that organisms during fetal period utilize cues that enable their adaptation in the postnatal environment they are likely to live, having short-term advantages when trying to survive in environment but simultaneously in the long run have costs for health. A large body of epidemiological research has found that low birth weight, a marker of intrauterine conditions, is associated with cardiovascular (CV) disease. Since the reported associations of birth weight with normal variation in the resting blood pressure (BP), a major predictor of CV disease risk, have been modest, a key candidate mediating the link has been CV and hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axes (HPAA) reactivity to stress. In addition, not only weight at birth but also gestational age and early postnatal growth may have independent associations to stress reactivity. The aim of this thesis was to investigate whether pre- and postnatal growth and gestational age are associated with CV and HPAA activity before, during and after stress in childhood and in late adulthood. Altogether 287 men and women aged 60-70 and 299 boys and girls aged 7-9 underwent Trier Social Stress Test. Several indices of HPAA and CV were measured and birth size and gestational age were obtained from birth records. Results showed that low birth weight was associated with low HPAA activity during psychosocial stress, and rapid gain in BMI during years 7-11 was related to heightened stress reactivity to psychosocial stress. Size at birth in children and gestational age and early postnatal (0-2 years) gain in height in adults were associated with CV stress responses; however, in a sex-specific manner. Given that CV stress responses and HPAA activity are markers of CV disease vulnerability, our results may partly explain the associations between early environment and later CV disease.

Brain oscillatory responses, working memory and cognitive developmental stages in 11- and 14-year-old children: an ERD/ERS study

Aim: So far, most of the cognitive neuroscience studies investigating the development of brain activity in childhood have made comparisons between different age groups and ignored the individual stage of cognitive development. Given the wide variation in the rate of cognitive development, this study argues that chronological age alone cannot explain the developmental changes in brain activity. This study demonstrates how Piaget s theory and information on child s individual stage of development can complement the age-related evaluations of brain oscillatory activity. In addition, the relationship between cognitive development and working memory is investigated. Method: A total of 33 children (17 11-year-olds, 16 14-year-olds) participated in this study. The study consisted of behavioural tests and an EEG experiment. Behavioral tests included two Piagetian tasks (the Volume and Density task, the Pendulum task) and Raven s Standard Progressive Matrices task. During EEG experiment, subjects performed a modified version of the Sternberg s memory search paradigm which consisted of an auditorily presented memory set of 4 words and a probe word following these. The EEG data was analyzed using the event-related desynchronization / synchronization (ERD/ERS) method. The Pendulum task was used to assess the cognitive developmental stage of each subject and to form four groups based on age (11- or 14-year-olds) and cognitive developmental stage (concrete or formal operational stage). Group comparisons between these four groups were performed for the EEG data. Results and conclusions: Both age- and cognitive stage-related differences in brain oscillatory activity were found between the four groups. Importantly, age-related changes similar to those reported by previous studies were found also in this study, but these changes were modified by developmental stage. In addition, the results support a strong link between working memory and cognitive development by demonstrating differences in memory task related brain activity and cognitive developmental stages. Based on these findings it is suggested that in the future, comparisons of development of brain activity should not be based only on age but also on the individual cognitive developmental stage.

A Cointegration Approach to Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (summary section only)

Mikael Juselius’ doctoral dissertation covers a range of significant issues in modern macroeconomics by empirically testing a number of important theoretical hypotheses. The first essay presents indirect evidence within the framework of the cointegrated VAR model on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor by using Finnish manufacturing data. Instead of estimating the elasticity of substitution by using the first order conditions, he develops a new approach that utilizes a CES production function in a model with a 3-stage decision process: investment in the long run, wage bargaining in the medium run and price and employment decisions in the short run. He estimates the elasticity of substitution to be below one. The second essay tests the restrictions implied by the core equations of the New Keynesian Model (NKM) in a vector autoregressive model (VAR) by using both Euro area and U.S. data. Both the new Keynesian Phillips curve and the aggregate demand curve are estimated and tested. The restrictions implied by the core equations of the NKM are rejected on both U.S. and Euro area data. These results are important for further research. The third essay is methodologically similar to essay 2, but it concentrates on Finnish macro data by adopting a theoretical framework of an open economy. Juselius’ results suggests that the open economy NKM framework is too stylized to provide an adequate explanation for Finnish inflation. The final essay provides a macroeconometric model of Finnish inflation and associated explanatory variables and it estimates the relative importance of different inflation theories. His main finding is that Finnish inflation is primarily determined by excess demand in the product market and by changes in the long-term interest rate. This study is part of the research agenda carried out by the Research Unit of Economic Structure and Growth (RUESG). The aim of RUESG it to conduct theoretical and empirical research with respect to important issues in industrial economics, real option theory, game theory, organization theory, theory of financial systems as well as to study problems in labor markets, macroeconomics, natural resources, taxation and time series econometrics. RUESG was established at the beginning of 1995 and is one of the National Centers of Excellence in research selected by the Academy of Finland. It is financed jointly by the Academy of Finland, the University of Helsinki, the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, Bank of Finland and the Nokia Group. This support is gratefully acknowledged.

Developmental-like responses in injured mature central neurons

Traumatic insults to the central nervous system are frequently followed by profound and irreversible neuronal loss as well as the inability of the damaged neurons to regenerate. One of the major therapeutic challenges is to increase the amount of surviving neurons after trauma. Thus it is crucial to understand how injury affects neuronal responses and which conditions are optimal for survival to prevent neuronal loss. During development neuronal survival is thought to be dependent on the competition for the availability of survival-promoting molecules called neurotrophic factors. Much less is known on the survival mechanisms of mature neurons under traumatic conditions. Increasing amount of evidence points towards the possibility that after injury neuronal responses might aquire some developmental characteristics. One of the important examples is the change in the responses to the neurotransmitter GABA: it is inhibitory in the intact mature neurons, but can induce excitation during development and after trauma. An important step in the maturation of GABAergic transmission in the CNS is the developmental shift in the action of GABAA receptor from depolarization in immature neurons to hyperpolarization in mature neurons. GABAA-mediated responses are tightly linked to the homeostasis of the chloride anion (Cl-), which in neurons is mainly regulated by Na+-K+-2Cl- cotransporter NKCC1 and K+-Cl- cotransporter KCC2. Trauma-induced functional downregulation of KCC2 promotes a shift from hyperpolarizing GABAA-mediated responses to depolarizing. Other important consequences of neuronal trauma are the emergence of dependency of central neurons on brain-derived neuro¬trophic factor (BDNF) for survival, as well as the upregulation of neurotrophin receptor p75NTR. Our aim was to answer the question whether these post-traumatic events are interrelated, and whether the regulation of BDNF and KCC2 expression is different under traumatic conditions and in intact neurons. To study responses of injured mature central neurons, we used an in vitro and in vivo axotomy models. For in vitro studies, we lesioned organotypic hippocampal slices between CA3 and CA1 regions, which resulted in selective axotomy of the CA3 neurons and denervation of the CA1 neurons. Some experiments were repeated in vivo by lesioning the neurons of the corticospinal tract at the internal capsule level, or by lesioning spinal motoneurons at the ventral root. We show that intact mature neurons do not require BDNF for survival, whereas in axotomized neurons apoptosis is induced upon BDNF deprivation. We further show that post-traumatic dependency on BDNF is mediated by injury-induced upregulation of p75NTR. Post-traumatic increase in p75NTR is induced by GABAA-mediated depolarization, consequent opening of voltage-gated Ca2+ channels, and the activation of Rho kinase ROCK. Thus, post-traumatic KCC2 downregulation leads to the dependency on BDNF through the induction of p75NTR upregulation. Neurons that survive after axotomy over longer period of time lose BDNF dependency and regain normal KCC2 levels. This phenomenon is promoted by BDNF itself, since after axotomy contrary to normal conditions KCC2 is upregulated by BDNF. The developmentally important thyroid hormone thyroxin regulates BDNF expression during development. We show that in mature intact neurons thyroxin downregulates BDNF, whereas after axotomy thyroxin upregulates BDNF. The elevation of BDNF expression by thyroxin promoted survival of injured neurons. In addition, thyroxin also enhanced axonal regeneration and promoted the regaining of normal levels of KCC2. Thus we show that this hormone acts at several levels on the axotomy-initiated chain of events described in the present work, and could be a potential therapeutic agent for the injured neurons. We have also characterized a previously unknown downregulatory interaction between thyroxin and KCC2 in intact neurons. In conclusion, we identified several important interactions at the neurotrophin-protein and hormone-neurotrophin level that acquire immature-like characteristics after axotomy and elucidated an important part of the mechanism by which axotomy leads to the requirement of BDNF trophic support. Based on these findings, we propose a new potential therapeutic strategy where developmentally crucial agents could be used to enhance survival and regeneration of axotomized mature central neurons.