Immediate Breast Reconstructions in the Treatment of Breast Cancer

Breast cancer is the most common form of potentially fatal cancer in women in the Western world. Better understanding of the breast cancer disease process together with developments in treatments have led to improved survival and reduced risk of recurrence, significantly influencing the acceptance of breast reconstructions as part of breast cancer treatment. Skin-sparing mastectomy followed by immediate breast reconstruction has proved superior to other forms of breast reconstruction in terms of aesthetic outcome. However, due to the relatively recent introduction of skin-sparing mastectomy concerns on the surgical and oncological safety of the operation persist. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the surgical and oncological safety of skin-sparing mastectomy and immediate breast reconstruction in a consecutive patient series with ensuing follow-up. Subsequent aims of the study are to examine possibilities of reducing surgical complications of the operation and to assess the feasibility of sentinel node biopsy together with immediate breast reconstruction. The study population comprises a consecutive series of patients having undergone skin-sparing mastectomy followed by immediate breast reconstruction at the Helsinki University Central Hospital between 1992 and 2006. In Study I, the hospital records of 207 patients, operated between 1992 and 2001, were analyzed for surgical complications and recurrences of breast cancer during follow-up. In Study II, 60 consecutive patients were randomized into either conventional diathermy or radiofrequency coagulation groups to examine possibilities of reducing skin-flap complications. Study III consists of 62 consecutive breast cancer patients evaluated for the feasibility of sentinel node biopsy simultaneously with immediate breast reconstruction. In Study IV, hospital records were analyzed to examine local recurrence of breast cancer in a consecutive series of 146 patients with Stage I or II disease. Post-operative complications in Study I included native skin-flap necrosis (10.1%), hematoma (10.1%), anastomose thrombosis (5.3%), infection (3.4%), hernia (2.6%) and loss of one microvascular flap (0.7%). The Stage I and II patients in Study IV had a local recurrence rate of 2.7%, an isolated regional lymph node recurrence rate of 2.1% and a systemic recurrence rate of 2.7%, during a mean follow-up time of 51 months. The Stage III patients in study I had a locoregional recurrence rate of 31.3% during follow-up. Radiofrequency coagulation in Study II did not decrease skin-flap complications when compared with conventional diathermy. An increased skin-flap complication rate in Study II was associated with smoking and the type of skin incision used. In Study III, eleven patients had tumor positive sentinel nodes, nine of which were detected intraoperatively. Skin-sparing mastectomy followed by immediate breast reconstruction is a safe procedure both surgically and oncologically, especially for early stage breast cancer. Tennis racket type incision is associated with an increased skin-flap complication rate. Sentinel node biopsy with intraoperative assessment of sentinel node metastases is feasible in patients undergoing immediate breast reconstruction.

Japanese Video Game Localization : A Case Study of Sony's Sairen Series

This thesis is a comparative case study in Japanese video game localization for the video games Sairen, Sairen 2 and Sairen Nyûtoransurêshon, and English-language localized versions of the same games as published in Scandinavia and Australia/New Zealand. All games are developed by Sony Computer Entertainment Inc. and published exclusively for Playstation2 and Playstation3 consoles. The fictional world of the Sairen games draws much influence from Japanese history, as well as from popular and contemporary culture, and in doing so caters mainly to a Japanese audience. For localization, i.e. the adaptation of a product to make it accessible to users outside the original market it was intended for in the first place, this is a challenging issue. Video games are media of entertainment, and therefore localization practice must preserve the games’ effects on the players’ emotions. Further, video games are digital products that are comprised of a multitude of distinct elements, some of which are part of the game world, while others regulate the connection between the player as part of the real world and the game as digital medium. As a result, video game localization is also a practice that has to cope with the technical restrictions that are inherent to the medium. The main theory used throughout the thesis is Anthony Pym’s framework for localization studies that considers the user of the localized product as a defining part of the localization process. This concept presupposes that localization is an adaptation that is performed to make a product better suited for use during a specific reception situation. Pym also addresses the factor that certain products may resist distribution into certain reception situations because of their content, and that certain aspects of localization aim to reduce this resistance through significant alterations of the original product. While Pym developed his ideas with mainly regular software in mind, they can also be adapted well to study video games from a localization angle. Since modern video games are highly complex entities that often switch between interactive and non-interactive modes, Pym’s ideas are adapted throughout the thesis to suit the particular elements being studied. Instances analyzed in this thesis include menu screens, video clips, in-game action and websites. The main research questions focus on how the games’ rules influence localization, and how the games’ fictional domain influences localization. Because there are so many peculiarities inherent to the medium of the video game, other theories are introduced as well to complement the research at hand. These include Lawrence Venuti’s discussions of foreiginizing and domesticating translation methods for literary translation, and Jesper Juul’s definition of games. Additionally, knowledge gathered from interviews with video game localization professionals in Japan during September and October 2009 is also utilized for this study. Apart from answering the aforementioned research questions, one of this thesis’ aims is to enrich the still rather small field of game localization studies, and the study of Japanese video games in particular, one of Japan’s most successful cultural exports.

Methodological and Empirical Advances in the Quantitative Analysis of Spontaneous Responses in Psychophysiological Time Series

The aim of the present study was to advance the methodology and use of time series analysis to quantify dynamic structures in psychophysiological processes and thereby to produce information on spontaneously coupled physiological responses and their behavioral and experiential correlates. Series of analyses using both simulated and empirical cardiac (IBI), electrodermal (EDA), and facial electromyographic (EMG) data indicated that, despite potential autocorrelated structures, smoothing increased the reliability of detecting response coupling from an interindividual distribution of intraindividual measures and that especially the measures of covariance produced accurate information on the extent of coupled responses. This methodology was applied to analyze spontaneously coupled IBI, EDA, and facial EMG responses and vagal activity in their relation to emotional experience and personality characteristics in a group of middle-aged men (n = 37) during the administration of the Rorschach testing protocol. The results revealed new characteristics in the relationship between phasic end-organ synchronization and vagal activity, on the one hand, and individual differences in emotional adjustment to novel situations on the other. Specifically, it appeared that the vagal system is intimately related to emotional and social responsivity. It was also found that the lack of spontaneously synchronized responses is related to decreased energetic arousal (e.g., depression, mood). These findings indicate that the present process analysis approach has many advantages for use in both experimental and applied research, and that it is a useful new paradigm in psychophysiological research. Keywords: Autonomic Nervous System; Emotion; Facial Electromyography; Individual Differences; Spontaneous Responses; Time Series Analysis; Vagal System

Modern diagnosis of Epstein-Barr virus infections and post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease

Infection by Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) occurs in approximately 95% of the world s population. EBV was the first human virus implicated in oncogenesis. Characteristic for EBV primary infection are detectable IgM and IgG antibodies against viral capsid antigen (VCA). During convalescence the VCA IgM disappears while the VCA IgG persists for life. Reactivations of EBV occur both among immunocompromised and immunocompetent individuals. In serological diagnosis, measurement of avidity of VCA IgG separates primary from secondary infections. However, in serodiagnosis of mononucleosis it is quite common to encounter, paradoxically, VCA IgM together with high-avidity VCA IgG, indicating past immunity. We determined the etiology of this phenomenon and found that, among patients with cytomegalovirus (CMV) primary infection a large proportion (23%) showed antibody profiles of EBV reactivation. In contrast, EBV primary infection did not appear to induce immunoreactivation of CMV. EBV-associated post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease (PTLD) is a life threatening complication of allogeneic stem cell or solid organ transplantation. PTLD may present with a diverse spectrum of clinical symptoms and signs. Due to rapidity of PTLD progression especially after stem cell transplantation, the diagnosis must be obtained quickly. Pending timely detection, the evolution of the fatal disease may be halted by reduction of immunosuppression. A promising new PTLD treatment (also in Finland) is based on anti-CD-20 monoclonal antibodies. Diagnosis of PTLD has been demanding because of immunosuppression, blood transfusions and the latent nature of the virus. We set up in 1999 to our knowledge first in Finland for any microbial pathogen a real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) for detection of EBV DNA in blood serum/plasma. In addition, we set up an in situ hybridisation assay for EBV RNA in tissue sections. In collaboration with a group of haematologists at Helsinki University Central Hospital we retrospectively determined the incidence of PTLD among 257 allogenic stem cell transplantations (SCT) performed during 1994-1999. Post-mortem analysis revealed 18 cases of PTLD. From a subset of PTLD cases (12/18) and a series of corresponding controls (36), consecutive samples of serum were studied by the new EBV-qPCR. All the PTLD patients were positive for EBV-DNA with progressively rising copy numbers. In most PTLD patients EBV DNA became detectable within 70 days of SCT. Of note, the appearance of EBV DNA preceded the PTLD symptoms (fever, lymphadenopathy, atypical lymphocytes). Among the SCT controls, EBV DNA occurred only sporadically, and the EBV-DNA levels remained relatively low. We concluded that EBV qPCR is a highly sensitive (100%) and specific (96%) new diagnostic approach. We also looked for and found risk factors for the development of PTLD. Together with a liver transplantation group at the Transplantation and Liver Surgery Clinic we wanted to clarify how often and how severely do EBV infections occur after liver transplantation. We studied by the EBV qPCR 1284 plasma samples obtained from 105 adult liver transplant recipients. EBV DNA was detected in 14 patients (13%) during the first 12 months. The peak viral loads of 13 asymptomatic patients were relatively low (<6600/ml), and EBV DNA subsided quickly from circulation. Fatal PTLD was diagnosed in one patient. Finally, we wanted to determine the number and clinical significance of EBV infections of various types occurring among a large, retrospective, nonselected cohort of allogenic SCT recipients. We analysed by EBV qPCR 5479 serum samples of 406 SCT recipients obtained during 1988-1999. EBV DNA was seen in 57 (14%) patients, of whom 22 (5%) showed progressively rising and ultimately high levels of EBV DNA (median 54 million /ml). Among the SCT survivors, EBV DNA was transiently detectable in 19 (5%) asymptomatic patients. Thereby, low-level EBV-DNA positivity in serum occurs relatively often after SCT and may subside without specific treatment. However, high molecular copy numbers (>50 000) are diagnostic for life-threatening EBV infection. We furthermore developed a mathematical algorithm for the prediction of development of life-threatening EBV infection.

Ischemic Stroke in Young Adults

Stroke is the second leading cause of death and the leading cause of disability worldwide. Of all strokes, up to 80% to 85% are ischemic, and of these, less than 10% occur in young individuals. Stroke in young adults—most often defined as stroke occurring under the age of 45 or 50—can be particularly devastating due to long expected life-span ahead and marked socio-economic consequences. Current basic knowledge on ischemic stroke in this age group originates mostly from rather small and imprecise patient series. Regarding emergency treatment, systematic data on use of intravenous thrombolysis are absent. For this Thesis project, we collected detailed clinical and radiological data on all consecutive patients aged 15 to 49 with first-ever ischemic stroke between 1994 and 2007 treated at the Helsinki University Central Hospital. The aims of the study were to define demographic characteristics, risk factors, imaging features, etiology, and long-term mortality and its predictors in this patient population. We additionally sought to investigate, whether intravenous thrombolysis is safe and beneficial for the treatment of acute ischemic stroke in the young. Of our 1008 patients, most were males (ratio 1.7:1), who clearly outnumbered females after the age of 44, but females were preponderant among those aged <30. Occurrence increased exponentially. The most frequent risk factors were dyslipidemia (60%), smoking (44%), and hypertension (39%). Risk factors accumulated in males and along aging. Cardioembolism (20%) and cervicocerebral artery dissection (15%) were the most frequent etiologic subgroups, followed by small-vessel disease (14%), and large-artery atherosclerosis (8%). A total of 33% had undetermined etiology. Left hemisphere strokes were more common in general. Posterior circulation infarcts were more common among those aged <45. Multiple brain infarcts were present in 23% of our patients, 13% had silent infarcts, and 5% had leukoaraiosis. Of those with silent brain infarcts, majority (54%) had only a single lesion, and most of the silent strokes were located in basal ganglia (39%) and subcortical regions (21%). In a logistic regression analysis, type 1 diabetes mellitus in particular predicted the presence of both silent brain infarcts (odds ratio 5.78, 95% confidence interval 2.37-14.10) and leukoaraiosis (9.75; 3.39-28.04). We identified 48 young patients with hemispheric ischemic stroke treated with intravenous tissue plasminogen activator, alteplase. For comparisons, we searched 96 untreated control patients matched by age, gender, and admission stroke severity, as well as 96 alteplase-treated older controls aged 50 to 79 matched by gender and stroke severity. Alteplase-treated young patients recovered more often completely (27% versus 10%, P=0.010) or had only mild residual symptoms (40% versus 22%, P=0.025) compared to age-matched controls. None of the alteplase-treated young patients had symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage or died within 3-month follow-up. Overall long-term mortality was low in our patient population. Cumulative mortality risks were 2.7% (95% confidence interval 1.5-3.9%) at 1 month, 4.7% (3.1-6.3%) at 1 year, and 10.7% (9.9-11.5%) at 5 years. Among the 30-day survivors who died during the 5-year follow-up, more than half died due to vascular causes. Malignancy, heart failure, heavy drinking, preceding infection, type 1 diabetes, increasing age, and large-artery atherosclerosis causing the index stroke independently predicted 5-year mortality when adjusted for age, gender, relevant risk factors, stroke severity, and etiologic subtype. In sum, young adults with ischemic stroke have distinct demographic patterns and they frequently harbor traditional vascular risk factors. Etiology in the young is extremely diverse, but in as many as one-third the exact cause remains unknown. Silent brain infarcts and leukoaraiosis are not uncommon brain imaging findings in these patients and should not be overlooked due to their potential prognostic relevance. Outcomes in young adults with hemispheric ischemic stroke can safely be improved with intravenous thrombolysis. Furthermore, despite their overall low risk of death after ischemic stroke, several easily recognizable factors—of which most are modifiable—predict higher mortality in the long term in young adults.

New approaches to improve the cord blood unit hematopoietic progenitor cell content

Cord blood is a well-established alternative to bone marrow and peripheral blood stem cell transplantation. To this day, over 400 000 unrelated donor cord blood units have been stored in cord blood banks worldwide. To enable successful cord blood transplantation, recent efforts have been focused on finding ways to increase the hematopoietic progenitor cell content of cord blood units. In this study, factors that may improve the selection and quality of cord blood collections for banking were identified. In 167 consecutive cord blood units collected from healthy full-term neonates and processed at a national cord blood bank, mean platelet volume (MPV) correlated with the numbers of cord blood unit hematopoietic progenitors (CD34+ cells and colony-forming units); this is a novel finding. Mean platelet volume can be thought to represent general hematopoietic activity, as newly formed platelets have been reported to be large. Stress during delivery is hypothesized to lead to the mobilization of hematopoietic progenitor cells through cytokine stimulation. Accordingly, low-normal umbilical arterial pH, thought to be associated with perinatal stress, correlated with high cord blood unit CD34+ cell and colony-forming unit numbers. The associations were closer in vaginal deliveries than in Cesarean sections. Vaginal delivery entails specific physiological changes, which may also affect the hematopoietic system. Thus, different factors may predict cord blood hematopoietic progenitor cell numbers in the two modes of delivery. Theoretical models were created to enable the use of platelet characteristics (mean platelet volume) and perinatal factors (umbilical arterial pH and placental weight) in the selection of cord blood collections with high hematopoietic progenitor cell counts. These observations could thus be implemented as a part of the evaluation of cord blood collections for banking. The quality of cord blood units has been the focus of several recent studies. However, hemostasis activation during cord blood collection is scarcely evaluated in cord blood banks. In this study, hemostasis activation was assessed with prothrombin activation fragment 1+2 (F1+2), a direct indicator of thrombin generation, and platelet factor 4 (PF4), indicating platelet activation. Altogether three sample series were collected during the set-up of the cord blood bank as well as after changes in personnel and collection equipment. The activation decreased from the first to the subsequent series, which were collected with the bank fully in operation and following international standards, and was at a level similar to that previously reported for healthy neonates. As hemostasis activation may have unwanted effects on cord blood cell contents, it should be minimized. The assessment of hemostasis activation could be implemented as a part of process control in cord blood banks. Culture assays provide information about the hematopoietic potential of the cord blood unit. In processed cord blood units prior to freezing, megakaryocytic colony growth was evaluated in semisolid cultures with a novel scoring system. Three investigators analyzed the colony assays, and the scores were highly concordant. With such scoring systems, the growth potential of various cord blood cell lineages can be assessed. In addition, erythroid cells were observed in liquid cultures of cryostored and thawed, unseparated cord blood units without exogenous erythropoietin. This was hypothesized to be due to the erythropoietic effect of thrombopoietin, endogenous erythropoietin production, and diverse cell-cell interactions in the culture. This observation underscores the complex interactions of cytokines and supporting cells in the heterogeneous cell population of the thawed cord blood unit.

Distal anterior cerebral artery aneurysms

Objective: Distal anterior cerebral artery (DACA) aneurysms represent about 6% of all intracranial aneurysms. So far, only small series on treatment of these aneurysms have been published. Our aim is to evaluate the anatomic features, microneurosurgical techniques, treatment results, and long-term outcome in patients treated for DACA aneurysms. Patients and methods: We analyzed the clinical and radiological data on 517 consecutive patients diagnosed with DACA aneurysm at two neurosurgical centers serving solely the Southern (Helsinki) and Eastern (Kuopio) Finland in 1936–2007, and used a defined subgroup of the whole study population in each part of the study. Detailed anatomic analysis was performed in 101 consecutive patients from 1998 to 2007. Treatment results were analyzed in 427 patients treated between 1980 to 2005, the era of CT imaging and microneurosurgery. Long-term treatment outcome of ruptured DACA aneurysm(s) was evaluated in 280 patients with a median follow-up of 10 years; no patients were lost to follow-up. Results: DACA aneurysms, found most often (83%) at the A3 segment of the anterior cerebral artery (ACA), were smaller (median 6 mm vs. 8 mm), more frequently associated with multiple aneurysms (35% vs. 18%), and presented more often with intracerebral hematomas (ICHs) (53% vs. 26%) than ruptured aneurysms in general. They were associated with anomalies of the ACA in 23% of the patients. Microsurgical treatment showed similar complication rates (treatment morbidity 15%, treatment mortality 0.4%) as for other ruptured aneurysms. At one year after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), DACA aneurysms had equally favorable outcome (GOS≥4) as other ruptured aneurysms (74% vs. 69%) but their mortality was lower (13% vs. 24%). Factors predicting unfavorable outcome for ruptured DACA aneurysms were advanced age, Hunt&Hess≥3, rebleeding before treatment, ICH, intraventricular hemorrhage, and severe preoperative hydrocephalus. The cumulative relative survival ratio showed 16% excess mortality in patients with ruptured DACA aneurysm during the first three years after SAH compared to the matched general population. From the fourth year onwards, there was no excess mortality during the follow-up. There were four episodes of recurrent SAH, only one due to treated DACA aneurysm, with a 10-year cumulative risk of 1.4%. Conclusions: The special neurovascular features and frequent association with anterior cerebral artery anomalies must be taken into account when planning occlusive treatment of DACA aneurysms. Clipping of DACA aneurysms provides a long-lasting result, with very small rates of rebleeding. After surviving three years from rupture of DACA aneurysm, the long-term survival of these patients becomes similar to that of the matched general population.

Improving GPS time series for geodynamic studies

Accurate and stable time series of geodetic parameters can be used to help in understanding the dynamic Earth and its response to global change. The Global Positioning System, GPS, has proven to be invaluable in modern geodynamic studies. In Fennoscandia the first GPS networks were set up in 1993. These networks form the basis of the national reference frames in the area, but they also provide long and important time series for crustal deformation studies. These time series can be used, for example, to better constrain the ice history of the last ice age and the Earth s structure, via existing glacial isostatic adjustment models. To improve the accuracy and stability of the GPS time series, the possible nuisance parameters and error sources need to be minimized. We have analysed GPS time series to study two phenomena. First, we study the refraction in the neutral atmosphere of the GPS signal, and, second, we study the surface loading of the crust by environmental factors, namely the non-tidal Baltic Sea, atmospheric load and varying continental water reservoirs. We studied the atmospheric effects on the GPS time series by comparing the standard method to slant delays derived from a regional numerical weather model. We have presented a method for correcting the atmospheric delays at the observational level. The results show that both standard atmosphere modelling and the atmospheric delays derived from a numerical weather model by ray-tracing provide a stable solution. The advantage of the latter is that the number of unknowns used in the computation decreases and thus, the computation may become faster and more robust. The computation can also be done with any processing software that allows the atmospheric correction to be turned off. The crustal deformation due to loading was computed by convolving Green s functions with surface load data, that is to say, global hydrology models, global numerical weather models and a local model for the Baltic Sea. The result was that the loading factors can be seen in the GPS coordinate time series. Reducing the computed deformation from the vertical time series of GPS coordinates reduces the scatter of the time series; however, the long term trends are not influenced. We show that global hydrology models and the local sea surface can explain up to 30% of the GPS time series variation. On the other hand atmospheric loading admittance in the GPS time series is low, and different hydrological surface load models could not be validated in the present study. In order to be used for GPS corrections in the future, both atmospheric loading and hydrological models need further analysis and improvements.

Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

Studies on Binary Time Series Models with Applications to Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance

This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.

What do hydrological time series tell about climate change?

Yhteenveto: Mitä hydrologiset mallit kertovat ilmaston muutoksesta?

Bootstrap and Fast Double Bootstrap Tests of Cointegration Rank with Financial Time Series

The likelihood ratio test of cointegration rank is the most widely used test for cointegration. Many studies have shown that its finite sample distribution is not well approximated by the limiting distribution. The article introduces and evaluates by Monte Carlo simulation experiments bootstrap and fast double bootstrap (FDB) algorithms for the likelihood ratio test. It finds that the performance of the bootstrap test is very good. The more sophisticated FDB produces a further improvement in cases where the performance of the asymptotic test is very unsatisfactory and the ordinary bootstrap does not work as well as it might. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo simulations provide a number of guidelines on when the bootstrap and FDB tests can be expected to work well. Finally, the tests are applied to US interest rates and international stock prices series. It is found that the asymptotic test tends to overestimate the cointegration rank, while the bootstrap and FDB tests choose the correct cointegration rank.