Urban energy fluxes in Helsinki and their high frequency spectral corrections

Inadvertent climate modification has led to an increase in urban temperatures compared to the surrounding rural area. The main reason for the temperature rise is the altered energy portioning of input net radiation to heat storage and sensible and latent heat fluxes in addition to the anthropogenic heat flux. The heat storage flux and anthropogenic heat flux have not yet been determined for Helsinki and they are not directly measurable. To the contrary, turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat in addition to net radiation can be measured, and the anthropogenic heat flux together with the heat storage flux can be solved as a residual. As a result, all inaccuracies in the determination of the energy balance components propagate to the residual term and special attention must be paid to the accurate determination of the components. One cause of error in the turbulent fluxes is the fluctuation attenuation at high frequencies which can be accounted for by high frequency spectral corrections. The aim of this study is twofold: to assess the relevance of high frequency corrections to water vapor fluxes and to assess the temporal variation of the energy fluxes. Turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat have been measured at SMEAR III station, Helsinki, since December 2005 using the eddy covariance technique. In addition, net radiation measurements have been ongoing since July 2007. The used calculation methods in this study consist of widely accepted eddy covariance data post processing methods in addition to Fourier and wavelet analysis. The high frequency spectral correction using the traditional transfer function method is highly dependent on relative humidity and has an 11% effect on the latent heat flux. This method is based on an assumption of spectral similarity which is shown not to be valid. A new correction method using wavelet analysis is thus initialized and it seems to account for the high frequency variation deficit. Anyhow, the resulting wavelet correction remains minimal in contrast to the traditional transfer function correction. The energy fluxes exhibit a behavior characteristic for urban environments: the energy input is channeled to sensible heat as latent heat flux is restricted by water availability. The monthly mean residual of the energy balance ranges from 30 Wm-2 in summer to -35 Wm-2 in winter meaning a heat storage to the ground during summer. Furthermore, the anthropogenic heat flux is approximated to be 50 Wm-2 during winter when residential heating is important.

Elements of Volatility at High Frequency

Volatility is central in options pricing and risk management. It reflects the uncertainty of investors and the inherent instability of the economy. Time series methods are among the most widely applied scientific methods to analyze and predict volatility. Very frequently sampled data contain much valuable information about the different elements of volatility and may ultimately reveal the reasons for time varying volatility. The use of such ultra-high-frequency data is common to all three essays of the dissertation. The dissertation belongs to the field of financial econometrics. The first essay uses wavelet methods to study the time-varying behavior of scaling laws and long-memory in the five-minute volatility series of Nokia on the Helsinki Stock Exchange around the burst of the IT-bubble. The essay is motivated by earlier findings which suggest that different scaling laws may apply to intraday time-scales and to larger time-scales, implying that the so-called annualized volatility depends on the data sampling frequency. The empirical results confirm the appearance of time varying long-memory and different scaling laws that, for a significant part, can be attributed to investor irrationality and to an intraday volatility periodicity called the New York effect. The findings have potentially important consequences for options pricing and risk management that commonly assume constant memory and scaling. The second essay investigates modelling the duration between trades in stock markets. Durations convoy information about investor intentions and provide an alternative view at volatility. Generalizations of standard autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models are developed to meet needs observed in previous applications of the standard models. According to the empirical results based on data of actively traded stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and the Helsinki Stock Exchange the proposed generalization clearly outperforms the standard models and also performs well in comparison to another recently proposed alternative to the standard models. The distribution used to derive the generalization may also prove valuable in other areas of risk management. The third essay studies empirically the effect of decimalization on volatility and market microstructure noise. Decimalization refers to the change from fractional pricing to decimal pricing and it was carried out on the New York Stock Exchange in January, 2001. The methods used here are more accurate than in the earlier studies and put more weight on market microstructure. The main result is that decimalization decreased observed volatility by reducing noise variance especially for the highly active stocks. The results help risk management and market mechanism designing.

Measurements of adequacy of anesthesia and level of consciousness during surgery and intensive care

The adequacy of anesthesia has been studied since the introduction of balanced general anesthesia. Commercial monitors based on electroencephalographic (EEG) signal analysis have been available for monitoring the hypnotic component of anesthesia from the beginning of the 1990s. Monitors measuring the depth of anesthesia assess the cortical function of the brain, and have gained acceptance during surgical anesthesia with most of the anesthetic agents used. However, due to frequent artifacts, they are considered unsuitable for monitoring consciousness in intensive care patients. The assessment of analgesia is one of the cornerstones of general anesthesia. Prolonged surgical stress may lead to increased morbidity and delayed postoperative recovery. However, no validated monitoring method is currently available for evaluating analgesia during general anesthesia. Awareness during anesthesia is caused by an inadequate level of hypnosis. This rare but severe complication of general anesthesia may lead to marked emotional stress and possibly posttraumatic stress disorder. In the present series of studies, the incidence of awareness and recall during outpatient anesthesia was evaluated and compared with that of in inpatient anesthesia. A total of 1500 outpatients and 2343 inpatients underwent a structured interview. Clear intraoperative recollections were rare the incidence being 0.07% in outpatients and 0.13% in inpatients. No significant differences emerged between outpatients and inpatients. However, significantly smaller doses of sevoflurane were administered to outpatients with awareness than those without recollections (p<0.05). EEG artifacts in 16 brain-dead organ donors were evaluated during organ harvest surgery in a prospective, open, nonselective study. The source of the frontotemporal biosignals in brain-dead subjects was studied, and the resistance of bispectral index (BIS) and Entropy to the signal artifacts was compared. The hypothesis was that in brain-dead subjects, most of the biosignals recorded from the forehead would consist of artifacts. The original EEG was recorded and State Entropy (SE), Response Entropy (RE), and BIS were calculated and monitored during solid organ harvest. SE differed from zero (inactive EEG) in 28%, RE in 29%, and BIS in 68% of the total recording time (p<0.0001 for all). The median values during the operation were SE 0.0, RE 0.0, and BIS 3.0. In four of the 16 organ donors, EEG was not inactive, and unphysiologically distributed, nonreactive rhythmic theta activity was present in the original EEG signal. After the results from subjects with persistent residual EEG activity were excluded, SE, RE, and BIS differed from zero in 17%, 18%, and 62% of the recorded time, respectively (p<0.0001 for all). Due to various artifacts, the highest readings in all indices were recorded without neuromuscular blockade. The main sources of artifacts were electrocauterization, electromyography (EMG), 50-Hz artifact, handling of the donor, ballistocardiography, and electrocardiography. In a prospective, randomized study of 26 patients, the ability of Surgical Stress Index (SSI) to differentiate patients with two clinically different analgesic levels during shoulder surgery was evaluated. SSI values were lower in patients with an interscalene brachial plexus block than in patients without an additional plexus block. In all patients, anesthesia was maintained with desflurane, the concentration of which was targeted to maintain SE at 50. Increased blood pressure or heart rate (HR), movement, and coughing were considered signs of intraoperative nociception and treated with alfentanil. Photoplethysmographic waveforms were collected from the contralateral arm to the operated side, and SSI was calculated offline. Two minutes after skin incision, SSI was not increased in the brachial plexus block group and was lower (38 ± 13) than in the control group (58 ± 13, p<0.005). Among the controls, one minute prior to alfentanil administration, SSI value was higher than during periods of adequate antinociception, 59 ± 11 vs. 39 ± 12 (p<0.01). The total cumulative need for alfentanil was higher in controls (2.7 ± 1.2 mg) than in the brachial plexus block group (1.6 ± 0.5 mg, p=0.008). Tetanic stimulation to the ulnar region of the hand increased SSI significantly only among patients with a brachial plexus block not covering the site of stimulation. Prognostic value of EEG-derived indices was evaluated and compared with Transcranial Doppler Ultrasonography (TCD), serum neuron-specific enolase (NSE) and S-100B after cardiac arrest. Thirty patients resuscitated from out-of-hospital arrest and treated with induced mild hypothermia for 24 h were included. Original EEG signal was recorded, and burst suppression ratio (BSR), RE, SE, and wavelet subband entropy (WSE) were calculated. Neurological outcome during the six-month period after arrest was assessed with the Glasgow-Pittsburgh Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC). Twenty patients had a CPC of 1-2, one patient had a CPC of 3, and nine patients died (CPC 5). BSR, RE, and SE differed between good (CPC 1-2) and poor (CPC 3-5) outcome groups (p=0.011, p=0.011, p=0.008, respectively) during the first 24 h after arrest. WSE was borderline higher in the good outcome group between 24 and 48 h after arrest (p=0.050). All patients with status epilepticus died, and their WSE values were lower (p=0.022). S-100B was lower in the good outcome group upon arrival at the intensive care unit (p=0.010). After hypothermia treatment, NSE and S-100B values were lower (p=0.002 for both) in the good outcome group. The pulsatile index was also lower in the good outcome group (p=0.004). In conclusion, the incidence of awareness in outpatient anesthesia did not differ from that in inpatient anesthesia. Outpatients are not at increased risk for intraoperative awareness relative to inpatients undergoing general anesthesia. SE, RE, and BIS showed non-zero values that normally indicate cortical neuronal function, but were in these subjects mostly due to artifacts after clinical brain death diagnosis. Entropy was more resistant to artifacts than BIS. During general anesthesia and surgery, SSI values were lower in patients with interscalene brachial plexus block covering the sites of nociceptive stimuli. In detecting nociceptive stimuli, SSI performed better than HR, blood pressure, or RE. BSR, RE, and SE differed between the good and poor neurological outcome groups during the first 24 h after cardiac arrest, and they may be an aid in differentiating patients with good neurological outcomes from those with poor outcomes after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.