Fertility in Namibia : Changes in fertility levels in North-Central Namibia 1960-2001, including an assessment of the impact of HIV

The aim of this study was to estimate the development of fertility in North-Central Namibia, former Ovamboland, from 1960 to 2001. Special attention was given to the onset of fertility decline and to the impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility. An additional aim was to introduce parish registers as a source of data for fertility research in Africa. Data used consisted of parish registers from Evangelical Lutheran congregations, the 1991 and 2001 Population and Housing Censuses, the 1992 and 2000 Namibia Demographic and Health Surveys, and the HIV sentinel surveillances of 1992-2004. Both period and cohort fertility were analysed. The P/F ratio method was used when analysing census data. The impact of HIV infection on fertility was estimated indirectly by comparing the fertility histories of women who died at an age of less than 50 years with the fertility of other women. The impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility was assessed both among infected women and in the general population. Fertility in the study population began to decline in 1980. The decline was rapid during the 1980s, levelled off in the early 1990s at the end of war of independence and then continued to decline until the end of the study period. According to parish registers, total fertility was 6.4 in the 1960s and 6.5 in the 1970s, and declined to 5.1 in the 1980s and 4.2 in the 1990s. Adjustment of these total fertility rates to correspond to levels of fertility based on data from the 1991 and 2001 censuses resulted in total fertility declining from 7.6 in 1960-79 to 6.0 in 1980-89, and to 4.9 in 1990-99. The decline was associated with increased age at first marriage, declining marital fertility and increasing premarital fertility. Fertility among adolescents increased, whereas the fertility of women in all other age groups declined. During the 1980s, the war of independence contributed to declining fertility through spousal separation and delayed marriages. Contraception has been employed in the study region since the 1980s, but in the early 1990s, use of contraceptives was still so limited that fertility was higher in North-Central Namibia than in other regions of the country. In the 1990s, fertility decline was largely a result of the increased prevalence of contraception. HIV prevalence among pregnant women increased from 4% in 1992 to 25% in 2001. In 2001, total fertility among HIV-infected women (3.7) was lower than that among other women (4.8), resulting in total fertility of 4.4 among the general population in 2001. The HIV epidemic explained more than a quarter of the decline in total fertility at population level during most of the 1990s. The HIV epidemic also reduced the number of children born by reducing the number of potential mothers. In the future, HIV will have an extensive influence on both the size and age structure of the Namibian population. Although HIV influences demographic development through both fertility and mortality, the effect through changes in fertility will be smaller than the effect through mortality. In the study region, as in some other regions of southern Africa, a new type of demographic transition is under way, one in which population growth stagnates or even reverses because of the combined effects of declining fertility and increasing mortality, both of which are consequences of the HIV pandemic.

Peritoneal dialysis and neurological outcome in infants and small children

Although improved outcomes for children on peritoneal dialysis (PD) have been seen in recent years, the youngest patients continue to demonstrate inferior growth, more frequent infections, more neurological sequelae, and higher mortality compared to older children. Also, maintain-ing normal intravascular volume status, especially in anuric patients, has proven difficult. This study was designed to treat and monitor these youngest PD patients, which are relatively many due to the high prevalence of congenital nephrotic syndrome of the Finnish type (CNF, NPHS1) in Finland, with a strict protocol, to evaluate the results and to improve metabolic balance, growth, and development. A retrospective analysis of 23 children under two years of age at onset of PD, treated between 1995 and 2000, was performed to obtain a control population for our prospective PD study. Respectively, 21 patients less than two years of age at the beginning of PD were enrolled in prospective studies between 2001 and 2005. Medication for uremia and nutrition were care-fully adjusted during PD. Laboratory parameters and intravascular volume status were regu-larly analyzed. Growth was analyzed and compared with midparental height. In a prospective neurological study, the risk factors for development and the neurological development was determined. Brain images were surveyed. Hearing was tested. In a retrospective neurological study, the data of six NPHS1 patients with a congruent neurological syndrome was analyzed. All these patients had a serious dyskinetic cerebral palsy-like syndrome with muscular dysto-nia and athetosis (MDA). They also had a hearing defect. Metabolic control was mainly good in both PD patient groups. Hospitalization time shortened clearly. The peritonitis rate diminished. Hypertension was a common problem. Left ventricular hypertrophy decreased during the prospective study period. None of the patients in either PD group had pulmonary edema or dialysis-related seizures. Growth was good and catch-up growth was documented in most patients in both patient groups during PD. Mortality was low (5% in prospective and 9% in retrospective PD patients). In the prospective PD patient group 11 patients (52%) had some risk factor for their neuro-development originating from the predialysis period. The neurological problems, detected be-fore PD, did not worsen during PD and none of the patients developed new neurological com-plications during PD. Brain infarcts were detected in four (19%) and other ischemic lesions in three patients (14%). At the end of this study, 29% of the prospectively followed patients had a major impairment of their neurodevelopment and 43% only minor impairment. In the NPHS1+MDA patients, no clear explanation for the neurological syndrome was found. The brain MRI showed increased signal intensity in the globus pallidus area. Kernic-terus was contemplated to be causative in the hypoproteinemic newborns but it could not be proven. Mortality was as high as 67%. Our results for young PD patients were promising. Metabolic control was acceptable and growth was good. However, the children were significantly smaller when compared to their midparental height. Although many patients were found to have neurological impairment at the end of our follow-up period, PD was a safe treatment whereby the neurodevelopment did not worsen during PD.