7 resultados para Bootstrap reality check

em Helda - Digital Repository of University of Helsinki


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Tutkimuksessa analysoidaan kaaosteorian vaikutusta kaunokirjallisuudessa ja kirjallisuudentutkimuksessa ja esitetään, että kaaosteorian roolia kirjallisuuden kentällä voidaan parhaiten ymmärtää sen avaamien käsitteiden kautta. Suoran soveltamisen sijaan kaaosteorian avulla on käyty uudenlaisia keskusteluja vanhoista aiheista ja luonnontieteestä ammennetut käsitteet ovat johtaneet aiemmin tukkeutuneiden argumenttien avaamiseen uudesta näkökulmasta käsin. Väitöskirjassa keskitytään kolmeen osa-alueeseen: kaunokirjallisen teoksen rakenteen teoretisointiin, ihmisen (erityisesti tekijän) identiteetin hahmottamiseen ja kuvailemiseen sekä fiktion ja todellisuuden suhteen pohdintaan. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on osoittaa, kuinka kaaosteorian kautta näitä aiheita on lähestytty niin kirjallisuustieteessä kuin kaunokirjallisissa teoksissakin. Väitöskirjan keskiössä ovat romaanikirjailija John Barthin, dramatisti Tom Stoppardin ja runoilija Jorie Grahamin teosten analyysit. Nämä kirjailijat ammentavat kaaosteoriasta keinoja käsitteellistää rakenteita, jotka ovat yhtä aikaa dynaamisia prosesseja ja hahmotettavia muotoja. Kaunokirjallisina teemoina nousevat esiin myös ihmisen paradoksaalisesti tunnistettava ja aina muuttuva identiteetti sekä lopullista haltuunottoa pakeneva, mutta silti kiehtova ja tavoiteltava todellisuus. Näiden kirjailijoiden teosten analyysin sekä teoreettisen keskustelun kautta väitöskirjassa tuodaan esiin aiemmassa tutkimuksessa varjoon jäänyt, koherenssia, ymmärrettävyyttä ja realismia painottava humanistinen näkökulma kaaosteorian merkityksestä kirjallisuudessa.

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This study examines the narrative construction of consumerism in Finnish consumer culture in the early 21st century. The objects of the study are consumer life stories and essays on environmentally friendly consumption, written by 15-19-year-old high school students. Moreover, group discussions were used as additional research material. The data was gathered at five high schools in different areas of Finland. Young people's consumer narratives are interpreted through cultural stories and consumer ethos such as self-control, gratification and green consumerism. The narrative research approach is used to analyse what types of consumer positions these young people construct in stories on their own consumer history, and what kinds of ideas and thought patterns they construct on green consumerism. The study creates a multifaceted image of young people as agents in consumer society. They construct archetypical stories of wastrels and scrooges, as well as prudent and environmentally friendly consumers. Consumption and expenditure are however mostly a continuous battle between self-control and giving in to gratification. This reality is illustrated among other things by clever expressions invented by young people, such as Carefree Pennywise, Prudent Hedonist and Wasteful Scrooge. In their narratives, young people also analyse the usefulness - or uselessness - of their decisions on consumption, as well as develop themselves into controlling and sensible consumers. This kind of virtuous consumer allows him/herself the joy and the gratification of consumption, as long as these are "kept in check". One's view of expenditure and consumption is not permanent. Consumerism may alter with time. A wastrel may grow up to be a young person in control of their desires, or a thrifty child may awaken to the pleasures of consumption in their teens. Consumerism may also be polyphonic: it may simultaneously - and even uncomplicatedly - be constructed upon the discourses of wastefulness, prudence, gratification and green consumerism. Young people allow for gratification to form a part of green consumerism, too: it is not simply restrictive self-denial. They also see many hurdles in the way of green consumerism, such as the elevated price of ecological products, and the difficulties of green consumer practices. The stories also show the gender division in green consumerism. For young men, ecological considerations offer elements for the construction of consumerism only on the very rare occasion, whereas striving for day-to-day green practices is typical for young women.

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The likelihood ratio test of cointegration rank is the most widely used test for cointegration. Many studies have shown that its finite sample distribution is not well approximated by the limiting distribution. The article introduces and evaluates by Monte Carlo simulation experiments bootstrap and fast double bootstrap (FDB) algorithms for the likelihood ratio test. It finds that the performance of the bootstrap test is very good. The more sophisticated FDB produces a further improvement in cases where the performance of the asymptotic test is very unsatisfactory and the ordinary bootstrap does not work as well as it might. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo simulations provide a number of guidelines on when the bootstrap and FDB tests can be expected to work well. Finally, the tests are applied to US interest rates and international stock prices series. It is found that the asymptotic test tends to overestimate the cointegration rank, while the bootstrap and FDB tests choose the correct cointegration rank.

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Bootstrap likelihood ratio tests of cointegration rank are commonly used because they tend to have rejection probabilities that are closer to the nominal level than the rejection probabilities of the correspond- ing asymptotic tests. The e¤ect of bootstrapping the test on its power is largely unknown. We show that a new computationally inexpensive procedure can be applied to the estimation of the power function of the bootstrap test of cointegration rank. The bootstrap test is found to have a power function close to that of the level-adjusted asymp- totic test. The bootstrap test estimates the level-adjusted power of the asymptotic test highly accurately. The bootstrap test may have low power to reject the null hypothesis of cointegration rank zero, or underestimate the cointegration rank. An empirical application to Euribor interest rates is provided as an illustration of the findings.